I was reading a teslarati article about GF1.
Here is what I extrapolated.
The Gigafactory is supposed to produce 35 gwh when fully built out to cover 13million sf. It currently only covers about 2 million sf, about one sixth of its final size.
Assuming absolute scalability, that means 21700 production is at 5.83 gwh.
Assuming 75kwh per long range model 3 and you get 77778 model 3s per year or 1496 per week.
This assumes no cannabiization of factory space for 18650 production nor utilization of 21700s for tesla energy projects.
This pretty much confirms tesla's claim that battery module production is the bottleneck.
Except that Tesla has since told us that the volumetric efficiency of the Gigafactory is about 3x better that the initial designs.
Thanks. I did not know that. Was that in the last earnings report?
Also, recent estimates of its current size is about 1/3 of final size. The factory footprint is to be 5.5 million square feet. The floor space is where the 13 million number comes from.
It was the 2016 shareholder meeting https://insideevs.com/elon-musk-says-gigafactory-output-could-soar-to-15...
I should have double checked teslarati's numbers.
"This pretty much confirms"
Maybe this is why there's a battle royale.
johnse | March 13, 2018 "Except that Tesla has since told us that the volumetric efficiency of the Gigafactory is about 3x better that the initial designs."
Not only that, I hear they laid on a few dozen extra aliens and a dreadnought. So, triple that prodution capacity one more time!