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90D vs P90D differences and delivery dates

90D vs P90D differences and delivery dates

1) Is the only difference between 90D and P90D the ability to accelerate at a faster rate and the possibility of the real spoiler in the P version? While cool and all for $20k price differential that seems awfully expensive. I can't imagine really needing that acceleration and using it in normal driving.

2) Tesla states that 90D will ship in mid-2016. Do others think that is being conservative and it might ship faster or may this date further ship? I can't imagine that of the 20k-30k reservations that a huge number of those want P90D or P90DL. Suppose of 30k reservation holders 5k want a P version. Then that implies one of two things:
a) Assuming June start for 90D delivery then they are only producing 5000 units/ 5 months = 1000 units /month which seems quite low. That means they are building only 250 units/week.
----- OR ----
b) They can ramp up production faster and get to producing 90D faster than they are committing to in the configurator.

Of course all of this is determined by how many P versions people want. So another question is

3) How many P versions of the Model X do you think people want in the reservation list? Do we know some similar statistics from the Model S?

rdalcanto | 24 november 2015

I am assuming that they will have a fewer percentage of P orders in the Model X than then Model S, since more women are going to be owners of the X. I have a P85D Model S, but my wife has no interested in a P90D Model X. The only reason we are considering it now is so that we don't wait even longer despite a production number in the 3,000 range. If most pass on the P, then the delay for the 90D won't be too bad....

timf2001 | 24 november 2015

I think they'll be delivering 90Ds by April or May 2016 at the latest. This is mostly a trick to get people who are sick of waiting to pay $20,000 to upgrade to P90D.

vperl | 24 november 2015

Tesla and trick ?

"Coming soon"

Triggerplz | 25 november 2015

how fast does the 90D go from 0 to 60?

jk | 25 november 2015

'I think they'll be delivering 90Ds by April or May 2016 at the latest.'

I totally disagree. I reckon they *might* produce 12,000 cars by the end of June and 99% will be P90D for obvious financial reasons.

Once cars start appearing on the street next year, they will get more orders, and a P90D will be made before a 90D or 70D.

I reckon if you want a 90D you might get it around August if you have a nice place on the waiting list.....otherwise Fall 2016 to Xmas.

jk | 25 november 2015

90D is 4.8 seconds
P90D is 3.8 seconds
P90D mental is 3.2 seconds

Clearly a 90D is more than adequate, just depends how much of a big kid you are, and whether you wanna wait until next winter for your car.

jdb | 25 november 2015

@jk. Agree with your analysis. All I want for Christmas (2016) is MX 90D. And sad in a way, with MX production reservation in mid 600's have been patiently waiting almost 4 years. But already have performance Sig MS, now due for 36k mile warranty inspection (and most exiting, have $1000 credit to use from friend who bought MS under referral program) and the MX is for wife who has zero interest in performance option. But now know a little bit what feels like to be second class citizen, suspect that Telsa may be maximizing profits but making public relations goof. In fact we may just cancel reservation, kind of ridiculous to wait almost 4 years for vehicle and now have customers putting down deposits for performance version in 2016 getting priority. But wish best of luck to Tesla Motors, hope they are very successful. Cheers.

JohnGlenney | 25 november 2015

I switched my reservation (#81) from signature to non-sig because I didn't want the performance version. Not only does the performance come at a much higher price but there is a range penalty. Tesla lists the p90D at 250 mile range and the 90D at 257 miles but I think there will be a bigger difference similar to the model s (18 miles). I do road trips often and occasionally the extra milage makes a difference in the ability to skip a supercharger when leaving a destination charger in the morning. When I picked up my wife's 90D model s, the delivery specialist also mentioned that the 90D is smoother than the p90D because of the identical motors front and rear and in my estimation I believe he is right. I will just wait a few extra months.

Red Sage ca us | 25 november 2015
Stan_Stein | 25 november 2015

I have an S and love it. Ordered an X in 2012. I have been very patient and and loyal. Not complaining because I subscribe to the approach that the car should only go to production when Musk feels its ready. However if it is true that the sequence of assembly will be determined by wether one has ordered a "P" vs a 90D totally unaceptable, and lacks integrity . After almost 3 years of waiting, I would think that we are owed more consideration.

deeageux | 27 november 2015

Buying a 2nd class or 3rd class crossover after waiting 3 or 4 years for an X does not harm Tesla but only harms those threatening to buy a lesser car.

After all this you are going to drive a Cayenne/XC90 PHEV everyday watching others drive an X almost every day? That is like slapping yourself in the face every morning for at least the next several years.

jdb | 27 november 2015

OK, discussed with boss, a/k/a wife. She actually made some good points. Agreed that doesn't make sense to pay $20K for feature which is of no interest to her, the driver to be. And likes the additional range. And if takes additional 10 months for delivery of 90D vs performance version, which is hopefully overstating, could consider it a saving of $2K per month. So will keep reservation for 90D, first rule of married life is a happy wife means a happy life. Cheers.

rdalcanto | 27 november 2015

+1 jdb.
We decided the same thing. I almost convinced myself to get the P90D, but it makes no sense to us. My wife will NEVER floor it. Why spend $20,000 to lose range for red calipers and a spoiler? Better to use the $20,000 of the kids college and graduate school tuition.

rdalcanto | 27 november 2015

edit - "for the kids college"

jpboyerva | 27 november 2015

I have a number in the 14000 - 14500 range and if I have to wait till Aug 2016 for a 90D I'll have to switch to a model S. A little real information for people who have set down $5000 for over a year is not too much to expect.

elguapo | 27 november 2015

Patience is the only option about which you really have no choice. It is all very similar to the S launch and as much as we like to speculate, all we can do is wait or cancel. I will wait. It's going to be awesome and well worth the Tesla grin when you get it - whether it is a 70D, 90D or P90D.

carlk | 27 november 2015

Please do not order the P so I could jump ahead of you with my pretty high reservation #.

OK joking aside the P is really a great deal compares to what BMW, Audi, Porsche or Mercedes offer for their performance versions. Not to mention you don't pay much fuel cost penalty as you would with those cars. That fact should also help the resale value of P because while people like the idea of buying a cheaper used high performance car they don't like the idea of having to pay for the exorbitant fuel cost. There is no such problem with the P. Those are factors that should be considered if the P is still within your reach and you do have some desire of it.

@jpboyerva's idea is also pretty sound imo, and @elguapo's too of course.

jpcompetello | 27 november 2015

I agree with foregoing that it is an insult to our intelligence and just a poor trick being played on people like ourselves who reserved years ago never with the thought of having to purchase a premium edition just because of a profit margin by an unscrupulous seller (Tesla and Musk and Co). No, I am not going to cancel but I will wait not so quietly while hopefully Musk and Co read these notes and agrees that it is nothing but a rip-off. First on the reservation list,first to configure (whatever you want) and first to get delivery. Terrible business 'model'....

Red Sage ca us | 27 november 2015

If I walk into a restaurant and order a grilled cheese sandwich with a glass of orange juice, I would certainly prefer to be served first.

However, if a party of twelve enters just after me and orders a whole lot more stuff, I would not be surprised if someone at their table received their plate before I got mine.

Prioritization happens.

TonyInNH | 27 november 2015

This has nothing to do with prioritization and everything to do with getting people who otherwise wouldn't consider a lesser model to pony up the extra money for something they don't want just to get an already incredibly delayed car a bit early.

Anyone how doesn't believe that is delusional.

carlk | 27 november 2015

@jpcompetello It's not a poor trick. You just have to pay (more) to play. Every (good) business is doing that. Try go to Porsche dealer to buy a base model of the hot selling Mecan that came out last year. No you could only buy the higher priced S and turbo versions because they don't sell the base version here in the US yet. It likely won't sell you one until the waiting list of the higher model is exhausted. The same happened when it first released the new Cayman and the Cayenne models in the past. You have to wait for a year or more to buy the base model.

@TonyInNH That's the prioritization @RS is talking about. Priority is always giving to the more profitable part of the business. People are delusional if they don't understand that's what happens in a "business".

TonyInNH | 27 november 2015

Tesla stated that they could put out ~1600 units/wk of the S & X combined. If they put emphasis on the X they can probably do 1000 X/wk. There is no way in hell those numbers work out to 2nd half 2016 or later for the 90D and 70D. After this long they owe it to their reservation holders to produce them in the order they were reserved. This is a money grab plain and simple. We've already had to wait for the Founders, then Founders to those who sold 10 S's, then Signatures.

Now if you don't want the top of the line you're shoved to the back. It's a lousy way to run a business, though I don't expect you or Red to agree as you're both delusional to the Nth degree.

Red Sage ca us | 27 november 2015

PRIORITIZATION:

If you can only build 100 cars per week, it makes sense for all 100 to be your most profitable versions of the vehicle to start.

If you can build 1,000 cars per week, and it just so happens that 800 of them are also the most profitable versions of the vehicle, you aren't going to make the 200 less profitable versions first. In fact, you may move up Production of 200 from the following week's allocation instead, and then wait two weeks before building 400 of the less profitable version.

When you can build 10,000 cars per month, and 8,000 of them are of the least profitable version, you will still prioritize their Production ahead of others... Because the VOLUME makes up for the difference.

rdalcanto | 27 november 2015

If they ramp up in the first quarter to an average of 500 Xs per week, that is 2,000 per month. If they make only P90Ds in the beginning, that is roughly $40,000,000 more PROFIT per month. They have been losing money because of gigafactory/growth. Elon said they hope to be cash positive in Q1. To do that, they NEED to make only P90Ds in Q1. If they pull it off, the stock will probably hit 300. That means more cash raise with less dilution when they offer up more stock to raise more capital. As much as I hate waiting for the 90D, they have to do this to survive and bring us the Model 3. Let's not get emotional and look at the big picture.

aesculus | 27 november 2015

All of you have good points. Tesla is doing what everyone expected, but to be honest, they should have stated the obvious up front. We will start production of our most profitable models in reservation sequence. In this manner everyone here would get what they wanted and or expected.

TonyInNH | 27 november 2015

No one knows how many reservations they have at this point, for the sake of an argument lets say 30K. 30K will take them 7 months if they are aggressive, 10 months if you wanna be conservative. In the end it's about working down the backlog. The distribution is not gonna make or break them no matter how much you want people to believe that. What this is about is enticing people to up their orders for things they don't want or need in the hopes of getting the product sooner.

Tesla would have been better off just being up front and asking for a 10K expedited service fee (otherwise known as Ludicrous mode) and then we wouldn't get these excuses from Red and rdcal than it's anything other than a money grab.

And by the way the P90D being 20K more doesn't equate to 20K profit unless you believe all that stuff is free for Tesla to add.

rdalcanto | 27 november 2015

I was going for easy math. Red calipers cost nothing. A slightly bigger rear motor and inverter costs Tesla a small percentage of the $20,000.

carlk | 27 november 2015

@rdalcanto That's probably close enough. Good for Tesla! Most comapanies would love to be in that position but only a very few could achieve that.

ian t.wa.us | 27 november 2015

If anyone thought they'd roll out the X any other way than what they doing, they're delusional. Sory Tony, I agree with some of your posts and I guess I agree with this one too, just not your vitriol about this tactic. Seriously, if they did it any other way, as an investor, I'd be quite disappointed.

rdalcanto | 27 november 2015

You want to talk about money grab? How much over MSRP were people paying for the early BMW i8s? Tesla has the smarts to sell its highest grossing products while it can in order to keep from going bankrupt and out of business, but it has the integrity to not charge over MSRP (even though it could) and to treat all customers the same.

TonyInNH | 27 november 2015

Okay, then how else do you explain the estimated delivery dates when Tesla has absolutely no clue as to who will by what product expect the 1500 or so that have been notified and, of those, only the ones that have confirmed?

Red Sage ca us | 28 november 2015

TonyInNH insisted, "Now if you don't want the top of the line you're shoved to the back. It's a lousy way to run a business...

Maybe, if Tesla Motors was a Mom & Pop organization that built cars entirely by hand, and had an emphasis on craftsmanship over engineering, they could do as you say and reverse course by taking longer on the top-of-the-line versions, and cranking out the decontented versions of their cars. Their motto could honestly be, "It'll be ready when it's ready -- not one moment sooner." That would certainly appeal to rich folk who value exclusivity and expense. That strategy has worked for many British and Italian shops for decades, after all.

First come, first served, works very well at a pushcart hotdog stand. Building automobiles is a bit more complicated. You'd might as well demand that Tesla Motors build exactly one car at a time and not even start building another until it has been Delivered to its Owner.

In a world where high quality mass production is the goal, Just-In-Time delivery of supplies and materials through integrated systems play a huge role in the logistics of the assembly process, quality control, and subsequent Delivery. Naturally, when someone has to break a promise to you because a factory went on strike, a shipment was destroyed by inclement weather, a train derailed, or a ship went down... Your Customer won't care. They just want the product. And the fact they don't have it yet is always going to be your fault. It isn't necessary to tell them why. It is only necessary to make it right.

But as is the case with any endeavor, even one that is relatively accelerated by the technology at hand, it is best to address each stage of development in a relatively slow, cautious manner, so as to be properly prudent. The impatience of your Customers must be tempered by your own sheer will to provide the very best possible result. This may not be the most efficient manner to run a business, but it sure as heck is appropriate when the goal is to make a difference.

You can do it Right, you can do it Fast, and you can do it Cheaply. Pick two. Don't be surprised when the third goes by the wayside.

TonyInNH | 28 november 2015

@Red
My guess is you're getting one of the top of the line models and haven't basically been told "sorry, you'll need to wait another 6-12 months"

AlMc | 28 november 2015

@Tony: I feel your pain but was totally prepared for this to happen. Since TM is not great at communicating we all have to read the 'tea leaves'. The 'tea leaves' based on experience with the S is that higher priced (higher margin) cars get produced first.

It is not fair..no question. However, it is how TM operates and I understand why.

TonyInNH | 28 november 2015

@AIMc
I understand your point of view. Mine is that if it takes Tesla 10 months (really just guessing) to fulfill all orders then does it really make a difference if they do them in order of price as opposed to reservation? In the end the profit is the same.

Furthermore, as I stated earlier, why would Tesla state that P90D deliveries will begin in early 2016, 90D in mid, and 70D in mid to late 2016? How could they possibly know that distribution if only a handful of reservation holders have configured? The most logical solution is that they're trying to nudge people into upping for a more expensive model with the hopes of getting it earlier.

I placed a reservation in April, 2014 and for all intents and purposes it's worthless.

carlk | 28 november 2015

Was it fair that you did not win lotto while someone who spent the same on his ticket is now a multi-millionair? Or was is fair that someone bought the Netflix stock a decade ago while you bought Blockbuster stock? When discussions like this turned into what's fair (to whom?) it won't get you anywhere. Tesla has reasons to do what it has decided to do. What is "fair" to everyone is not one of them and it's not possible to achieve anyway. The only thing one needs to decide now is what is the best decision under the situation.

TonyInNH | 28 november 2015

Comparing the randomness of the lottery or the stock market (a different type of lottery) to a business with a long term plan is a poor analogy to say the least.

With regards to 'fairness' not being in Tesla's reasoning I believe this to be a mistake. At this point Tesla should be doing everything possible to keep their potential customers happy lest they get a poor reputation. Handling reservations in the order they were received is not too much to ask and does nothing to harm their long term goals.

rdalcanto | 28 november 2015

I don't have first hand knowledge of Tesla's spending plans, but ramping up the Model X is probably expensive. So is the upcoming reveal for the Model 3, and the current expansion of the Gigafactory. It is true that the income at the end of the year is the same regardless of order (assuming nobody switches to the P90D to get it sooner), but if the expenses are high in Q1, then they need the extra money in Q1, or they might not make it to Q4.

elguapo | 28 november 2015

@carlk +1

Remnant | 28 november 2015

As the prospective buyer that I am, I find it logical, and not in the least offensive, to pay more for faster service. Has it occurred to anyone to demand equal speed for all mail, irrespective of the fee paid?

Furthermore, IMO, it's simply arrogant to question Tesla's business decisions, even more so from the standpoint of a random or arbitrary rule like the order in a queue.

It is also only fair to notice that a smaller number of more profitable iterations of a product are generally easier to prioritize over the balance of the product line, especially while other complexities are involved, such as supply availability and costs.

AlMc | 28 november 2015

@carlK (and elguapo since you are +1): @Tony is correct, IMO, about your analogy trying to compare a place in the queue and the lotto/stock market picking. The former is held by a deposit and an agreement between two parties, the latter is governed by probability theory and the stock picking by business plan and luck.
They are not in any way analogous to putting a deposit down/making a contract for purchase.

As to 'fairness'. Yes, the way TM decides to process one order ahead of another that was placed earlier is 'unfair'. This type of thing does happen 'in life' and TM has shown a tendency to batch production by configuration and country of destination. I have NO problem with this. However, I think it would be wise to put in the deposit agreement language that would indicate that TM reserves the right to build cars out of deposit sequence depending on criteria it sets. This would mitigate some of the 'unfairness' argument.

@Remnant: I do not feel it is 'arrogant' in the true definition to question Tesla's business decisions even when it comes to the order of production based on your order sequence. Again, it is 'unfair' to build cars out of sequence of deposits being made. It may be justified and/or good business practice..but it is 'unfair'.
Put language in the deposit 'contract' to reflect that 'builds' may be done out of sequence for a number of reasons.

As a stockholder I am perfectly fine with batching orders/building and delivering out of deposit sequence.

TonyInNH | 28 november 2015

+1

TonyInNH | 28 november 2015

@Remnant
Your mail example is a poor analogy. You are comparing a general service with a reservation for a particular product. A better analogy would be if Apple's next IPhone was released, they tacked on a $100 preferred customer fee so that you could be guaranteed of getting one of the first. Granted it would relieve some of those obscenely long lines seen at the Apple store, but no doubt their reputation would take a hit.

elguapo | 28 november 2015

@AIMc My +1 was focused more on the fairness comment and the point @carlk was trying to make (I think) whereby a conversation in the forums about what is "fair" usually goes nowhere and people just begin to argue. I do think the best thing for everyone to do as it relates to model choice for the X is just decide what's best for them and whether they want to pay a premium to get it sooner.

I do think it would make sense for Tesla to explicitly say they have the right to make cars out of sequence. That said, they're doing exactly what they did with the S, as I remember ordering mine early on. I have an S60 but had a fairly low reservation number and had to wait for the 85s, etc to be built. I guess my point is that Tesla's process shouldn't surprise anyone.

Waiting sucks. It's helpful to vent. But when we all have the Model X Tesla grin, we will forget how long we had to wait.

AlMc | 28 november 2015

@elguapo: Thanks for explaining the +1: Unfortunately when you do not add a comment indicating what you agree with one is obliged to believe you agree with the entire post.

I think we are very much in agreement based on your clarification.

:)

Red Sage ca us | 28 november 2015

Corey Johnson and Jim Cramer have been doing their absolute damnedest to give Tesla Motors a bad reputation since 2010. They thought TSLA was overvalued at 1/10,000th the price of BRK-A then... And they are absolutely flummoxed that it is more costly than 1/1000th of BRK-A today. Imagine how their heads will explode when TSLA reaches 1/100th of BRK-A...? Ever see the movie 'SCANNERS' (1981). Yeah.

There have been a lot of comparisons of image, popularity, and perception of Tesla Motors in recent years. Most of them show the company is regarded by Consumers with much the same panache as Apple™. So, I don't think that's going to be a problem at all going forward.

Ultimately, it is all about perception.

AlMc | 28 november 2015

@ RedSage: Thanks for the link

A snippet from the linked article you posted.

'Tesla is proactive, you see every problem they fix, and Tesla promotes forums where folks talk about their problems, partially so the company can make sure it is capturing all of them'

So, hopefully our discussions are being read by TM which will only improve the product and customer experience.

jjs | 28 november 2015

To determine if Tesla will meet or exceed its date on delivering a 90D I would ask my self two questions, as I believe the best indicator of the future is any pattern established in the past.

How many times has Tesla met its own stated time line/deadline/estimate?

How many time has Tesla been early regarding its own state time line/deadline/estimate?

I believe the answer to these two questions are the best guide to answer the OPs question.

OP - Your solution to wait 10 months for 2K per month seems very sensible and you will still get an awesome vehicle. However, Tesla "soon" makes it quite possible it will be longer than 10 months. OTOH, in 10 months who knows what new features/functions Tesla will add. You may be very pleasantly surprised. Tesla is not always on time, but they are always innovating and improving. Best of luck.

carlk | 29 november 2015

@AlMc

It does not matter whether the outcome is from random chance or people's deliberate actions it will not be the same for everybody. Argument that something is not fair is just silly. Give me just one example in life that is "fair" for everyone if you don't agree.

pvetesla | 29 november 2015

I have a sneaky feeling that most everyone here saying "get over it life isn't fair" would quickly change their toon if the new roll-out schedule switched. If the 70D's came out first and the 90D's next it would suddenly be a travesty to humanity.
Perspective is everything.

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