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New Model-X reservations are expected in 2nd half of 2016

New Model-X reservations are expected in 2nd half of 2016

Looks like the Model-X holding page has been updated finally.

Unfortunately, it only changes the estimated delivery date (sign of progress?)

"The delivery estimate for new reservations is the second half of 2016"

PJJAVA | 24 september 2015

Good catch! Progress indeed.

aesculus | 24 september 2015

Well this seems to confirm that "Early 2016" means first half of 2016 :-)

Pbfoot | 24 september 2015

Wonder if this means that production will be slower than anticipated, or simply that reservations have increased.

carlk | 24 september 2015

It makes sense. Tesla will produce combined S and X in the range of ~15~20K per quarter. It does take three quarters to digest current reservations.

rdalcanto | 24 september 2015

I think it means they are going to ramp up slower than expected. When we ordered more than two years ago, we thought for sure we would have the car by spring 2015. This summer we believed we would have it by the end of the year (Production Reservation <4,000). Now I just don't know. Hopefully we will learn more next week.

NumberOne | 24 september 2015

If they produce 1k per week, it would take six months to deliver 26k cars. Tesla has more than 6k additional reservations that may all be delivered this year. It is possible that you will get your car this year. My reservation is < 2k, so I really hope to have mine soon, with soon meaning Nov/Dec.

carlk | 24 september 2015

Tesla will probably produce close to 1K a week but not in the begining when it's ramping up. It's anyone's guess how fast the ramp up will be.

vandacca | 24 september 2015

I'm trying to temper my excitement. I'm still planning to get my early general production MX in early 2016. The reason for that is because currently Tesla is producing about 5 MX/week. Their guidance at the last call was less than 1000 MX for this year (50,000 - 55,000 total vehicles for the year).

I would love to be wrong or for Tesla to exceed expectations on this one.

NumberOne | 24 september 2015

Tesla itself never released guidance that they will only produce 1k this year. Elon did mention that the ramp up will be significantly faster than what was the case with Model S. Tesla has 3 months until the end of the year. They have invited over 500 people to configure so far, and I doubt there would be that many if they were not already picking up the pace a little. 5 per week is 20 per month, and 80 if counting from the beginning of September to the end of December.

I would think that there would be at least 200 completed by the end of October, and the real ramp will begin at that point with at least 200 per week the first 2 weeks of November and then 400 per week, then 600 per week by December. This is a pessimistic view, yielding 1200 cars by the beginning of December, with an additional 2400 produced by the end of December, for a total of 3600. Mine is around #3000 if you count signatures too, so I fall within the limits of my own estimate.

The only guidance that I heard Elon mention regarding Model X is that they hope to produce 1k per week at year end.

Unlike my friend who would love to be wrong, I would love to be [close to] correct. By nature, I am an optimist while keeping reality close too.

ModelXTracker.com should prove very useful for those who like speculating and those who just want an idea of how much longer they will have to wait.

madodel | 24 september 2015

I certainly hope they produce at least 1200 Model X SIgs before the end of the year. ;-)

Mark
Model X Signature #1096

mdpcomics | 24 september 2015

#43 will let you know...configured.

finished | 25 september 2015

It changed back to say "early 2016".

NumberOne | 25 september 2015

Expect it to be changed again on Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

They took the animation away, and reverted to the original page they had after they took away the page that had more information. I think the 'change back to' "early 2016" is a mere omission.

It is extremely unlikely that Tesla will be able to produce any Model X that are reserved today, before Q3 2016, which is great, because it means that demand is nearly triple what it was prior to the release of Model S (taking only reservations into account.)

vandacca | 25 september 2015

Weird. Probably automated. When the number of reservations surpasses 30,000, it displays a page with even less information. [/Joking]

NumberOne | 25 september 2015

And it is back to the other page again. Someone is probably having a chuckle over this.

vandacca | 25 september 2015

This is too comical.

jk | 28 september 2015

And the German page now reads:

"The delivery estimate for new reservations
is the second half of 2016"

Which isn't the best German I have ever read....so someone is thrashing about a bit on their website.