Solar Roof Progression (UPDATE 3/9)

Solar Roof Progression (UPDATE 3/9)

****UPDATE: 3/9/2020****
**Data Tracker COMPLETED.**

Live data tracker!!!!

Solar Roof Cost for my house:
1,859sf Roof
9.36kW System
Est. Annual Production: 8258 kWh
-$2,187 (NYSERDA Rebate)
$36,969 Total

Financing Info:
20 year loan @ 6.99%:

NYS Tax Credit: $5,000
Federal Tax Credit: $5,877
Total: $10,877

Shingles Roof Estimates: ~$16,000

Life span of Shingles Roof: ~25 years. Life span of the Solar Roof: 60 years. I think its more realistic to use 50 years.
Shingles Roof needs 2 replacements by the end of Solar Roof life, which translates to ~$32,000.

25 year warranty guarantees 87.5% of solar's nominal rated power generation due to degradation at the end of the warranty.

Solar Power Region Info for Albany, NY: See data tracker for more info.
Potential Annual Energy Generation: 8,258kWh
Potential Annual Value of Energy: $929.02

50 year cost:
Shingles Roof: -$32,000.

Solar Roof CASH Cost:
Electricity Value: 900x50x0.875= +$39,375
Home Appreciation Value: ~5% (traditional solar panels) = ~+$10,000
Tax Credits: +$10,877
No Roof Replace @ 25years: +$16,000
Solar Roof: -$36,969

Add them all up and you get: +$39,283

Solar Roof LOAN Cost:
Electricity Value: 900x50x0.875= +$39,375
Home Appreciation Value: ~5% (traditional solar panels) = ~+$10,000
Tax Credits: +$10,877
No Roof Replace @ 25years: +$16,000
Solar Roof: -$68,735

Add them all up and you get: +$7,517

Break Even CASH:
Time to break even: 10,000 + 10,877 - 36,969 = -16,092
-16,092 + (900*X) = 0
X = 17.88

Break Even LOAN:
Time to break even: 10,000 + 10,877 - 68,735 = -47,858
(-47,858 + 16,000) + (900*X) = 0
X = 35.39 years

andy.connor.e | 19 januari 2020

Nuked the old thread because im going to move forward with this until i get more information that may or may not be desirable.

Called Tesla yesterday and asked about main panel compatibility. Any 200A, 250A, 300A main panel should be compatible with the system that they install. I currently have a 60A main so that pretty much doesnt work anymore so im getting an upgrade before the roof.

Tesla2018 | 19 januari 2020

Any time frame on when solar roofs are going to become available? I figure my roof has got about five years left unless a hurricane takes it off but Tesla said they were coming out with tiles several years ago but nothing ever happened except for the model houses from Desperate Housewives that they used and a couple other ones.
I plan on retiring in about 5 years so if I stay then it would be worth it to have them installed, but if I decide to move I don't know if I would be able to recover the difference in the cost.

andy.connor.e | 19 januari 2020

Nope. I asked about that and he couldnt even give an answer because they have absolutely no idea. But i bet if you live in California it wont be much longer. My roof is definitely at the end of its life this year, could probably make it 1 more year but would be best to get it done now while the federal tax credit is 26%. Next year its down another 4%, which in the grand scheme of things is really alot with the price of the roof and potentially powerwalls.

Im imagining if i ever move i am going to turn my house into a rental property. The roof makes sense. | 20 januari 2020

Tesla has already been installing them now in California. I hope to get my roof on in a few days - it keeps sliding out each week due to rain, but they have already completed others locally. They need 3-4 days of clear weather. I suspect once the rain abates in our area, they will be going like gangbusters. Powerwalls are mounted, as these only take one day, so easier to find a single non-rainy day.

I expect the major issue is having Tesla roofing teams available in your area. Once they open the solar roof up to all roofing contractors, I'd expect the entire USA to be covered. That may happen later this year.

Tesla2018 | 20 januari 2020

TeslaTap- Are the tile design options the same as the ones they originally came out with? | 20 januari 2020

They only have Textured tiles, but that's what I wanted. Other styles are not available yet.

andy.connor.e | 20 januari 2020

I like the textured. Smooth is also pretty slick looking, but is relatively indifferent to me.

blue adept | 20 januari 2020

>>> "Once they open the solar roof up to all roofing contractors, I'd expect the entire USA to be covered." <<<

I don't see that as being all that advisable as that could, potentially, expose Tesla to a variety of liability claims stemming from improperly installed and/or inadequately operating solar roof systems.

andy.connor.e | 21 januari 2020

Yea i was kind of hoping that Tesla would install the roof, and not some other contracting company who is going to do a cob job to get it done super fast. | 21 januari 2020

So far I'm been impressed with Tesla's team. They have their own independent inspectors too that come out at various points during the work. My guess is if they allow others to install the solar roof, they would retain the inspections to ensure the jobs are done correctly. They may also just stick with doing it all themselves in the future.

While the major markets could be addressed by Tesla, I don't see how they could get enough volume to justify teams in rural areas, so it may be a choice between no availability or allowing contractors in select areas.

It will be interesting to see how they change in 2021 when they up production capacity and what new directions they take.

andy.connor.e | 21 januari 2020

I am crossing my fingers that they get to my area this year.

blue adept | 22 januari 2020

I think it'll come down to "volume" as well and can see them continuing to keep installations 'in house' to ensure both the quality of the install and the integrity of the system's performance since customer satisfaction and positive public perception will both be top priorities.

andy.connor.e | 27 januari 2020

Just got a call that my solar roof design is done, call tonight to discuss!!!! I wonder if that had anything to do with the fact that i called to verify main panel compatibility and they realized that i was actually a serious customer.

andy.connor.e | 27 januari 2020

OP updated based on call with Tesla representative 1/27 (today).

andy.connor.e | 30 januari 2020

Some more information. According to Zillow and hundreds of thousands of homes, having solar increases the value of your home by 5%. The true number is 5.1%, and if anything the solar roof would be more valuable because its a roof that can last about 60 years. So if i dont have to replace this roof until im 86, thats a pretty good deal.

After the 25 year warranty expires, the solar panels themselves are guaranteed to still maintain 87.5% of their rated capacity of generation. Which is not that much degradation over more than two decades.

I have decided today to move forward with the solar roof. Installation should begin somewhere after the beginning of Apirl.

andy.connor.e | 30 januari 2020

Live data tracker out!! | 30 januari 2020

@andy.connor.e - Good info. So if your house is worth more than $1M, spending $50K on solar returns $50K in house value, and you save even more from the free electricity you use. Lots of variables here - house value, how large a solar system you install, cost of that system, and how much electricity you use. Still, not too hard to figure it out. Also, 26% of the solar install can be a credit on taxes too. Some states offer additional deals, but not California.

I hope to have the solarroof panels finished being installed tomorrow. It may take a while for PG&E to approve and allow activation. I've heard up to 4 weeks. So far the Tesla Energy team have been excellent.

andy.connor.e | 30 januari 2020

Yes i will essentially recover 50% of the cost from the tax credits and house value. And i wont be paying a dime because im going to just siphon money out of my airbnb income. So to me its just worth it across the board. I also want to stick it to family members to show that its possible, this is the economics of it, and maybe neighbors will ask about it.

andy.connor.e | 31 januari 2020

Final property assessment this Monday. Its been months of silence and now everythings moving very fast.

andy.connor.e | 13 februari 2020

OP has been updated to reflect real world economic calculations.

Disclaimer: These calculations are specific to my property, my areas exposure to sunlight, and my electricity rates. Your numbers may vary.

Tesla2018 | 13 februari 2020

Is the 6.99% loan rate from Tesla or someplace else?
That rate seems high since Home Equity Credit lines are currently lower. You can also do a refi on your mortgage and get an even lower rate, but may have some closing costs.
Also can you deduct the interest on your loan as a home improvement or does it not qualify since it is maintenance?

andy.connor.e | 13 februari 2020

Financing is through Mosaic. I dont have enough home equity to pay for this. Will look into the interest write off. I would think that it should be considered home improvement since the solar roof will increase the property value.

WW_spb | 17 februari 2020

My electricity generation estimated at 1390 bucks a year 3140sqft roof 9.3 kWh glass roof 43k before credits in GA. Paid for roof replacement 3 years ago 12k only bc I knew owner, home Depot gave us 18k estimate lol.

andy.connor.e | 4 mars 2020

Final design is in. Solar roof will be getting installed in the next 60 days.

andy.connor.e | 4 mars 2020

Looks like in my state there is a tax exemption for adding solar. If you are reassessed, the solar roof would be tax exempt for 15 years for me, which is 75% the loan duration, not a bad deal.

andy.connor.e | 4 mars 2020

I also did some research on others questions about interest write off. If the project is considered home improvement that or 'capital improvement' to be precise. Meaning the improvement must increase your home's value, adapt it to new uses, or extend its life. Examples of capital improvements are: adding a third bedroom, adding a garage, installing insulation, landscaping, solar panels and more. You would include this home improvement interest expense under the same section as you would Home Mortgage Interest.

So the solar roof definitely adapts to a new use, and DEFINITELY extends its life. Looks to me like it should fit the criteria for writing off with your mortgage interest. I will keep this in my back pocket to double check with my tax person though.

andy.connor.e | 5 mars 2020

OP thread updated to reflect final design pricing. There was apparently another solar incentive that knocked off a couple grand. Always great to have the price drop more than what you expected it to cost.

PrescottRichard | 5 mars 2020

Nice! Are you gonna post pics when it is all finished? I know you can’t put them here, but a link to them maybe?

andy.connor.e | 5 mars 2020

Im gonna take ALOT of pictures. Granted ill probably be leaving for work and returning outside of their working hours. But each day i'll be snapping photos! Can always upload them to Imgur

andy.connor.e | 5 mars 2020

Gonna need as much evidence as possible so i can convince my stubborn anti-different family that there is an alternative to a shingles roof lmao

andy.connor.e | 5 mars 2020

I've been trying to find a source that has a record of the actual hours of sunlight for the day, accounting for clouds and such. Does anyone know where you can get this data? Or if this data even exists? I've been looking for a while.

FISHEV | 5 mars 2020

This shows the potential for each geographic area.

FISHEV | 5 mars 2020

2109 was the first year I've seen solar production go down but it is in line with climate predictions and weather results, warmer and wetter.

andy.connor.e | 5 mars 2020

i have also not seen solar production go down since 2210. But im looking for a location that has the actual record. Not an estimate.

FISHEV | 5 mars 2020 mean someone actually measured the solar energy for each area and built a map based on the data?

derotam | 6 mars 2020

@andy.conner.e: So maybe these resources might help. I have kind of wanted what you want as well but determined for myself that a reasonable estimate was good enough for me. I settled with what PVWATTS gave me here but I just tracked the source data that goes into that which led me to here I don't have time right now to look further but it looks like that might get you at least closer to what you want.

andy.connor.e | 6 mars 2020

Ya i mean literally, someone has a light sensor and measures the amount of direct sunlight for the day.

andy.connor.e | 6 mars 2020

I wanted to have a graph in my data collector for daylight hours vs actual sunlight hours and power generated as a result.

FISHEV | 6 mars 2020

"I wanted to have a graph in my data collector for daylight hours vs actual sunlight hours and power generated as a result."

SolarEdge system has a great app for tracking your solar power. You'll get power even on cloudy days. The graphic for the eclipse was interesting. Does Tesla offer an app for tracking? Whose inverter does Tesla use?

andy.connor.e | 6 mars 2020

Dude if you're going to comment on my thread please keep the continuity. I dont need a 3rd party app. Teslas app has energy monitoring, i've already looked that up. Im trying to see if i can get total direct sunlight hours measured for the day somewhere, or if thats something im going to have to do myself.

derotam | 6 mars 2020

@andy: wouldn't Irradiance values be more useful? "Direct sunlight hours" doesn't really mean anything by itself. Different areas of the earth will have completely different solar capability per hour of direct sunlight, as will the same area depending on time of year.

andy.connor.e | 6 mars 2020

Probably. Then i would have to get an average irradiance for the day compared to the maximum available. Lol, where would you even get that data from?

derotam | 6 mars 2020

From NREL, who I linked to above. NREL - National Renewable Energy Laboratory who maintains the NRSDB(National Solar Radiation Database), which "is a serially complete collection of hourly and half-hourly values of meteorological data and the three most common measurements of solar radiation: global horizontal, direct normal and diffuse horizontal irradiance."

andy.connor.e | 6 mars 2020


Theres a shitload of data in the program i downloaded. The problem is when i downloaded my area, i dont know what year this is referring to, or if its an average of each day of the year over all years.

andy.connor.e | 6 mars 2020

Looks like its a typical year.

andy.connor.e | 6 mars 2020

I think this is about as good as im going to get unless i put a light sensor outside. I can do comparison graphs based on what i generated vs a typical year. Wow this is getting good! Im going to do graphs comparing recorded vs typical. I might even be able to record degradation!

FISHEV | 6 mars 2020

"I dont need a 3rd party app. Teslas app has energy monitoring,"

SolarEdge is an inverter mfg, not 3rd party app producer. I was pointing out that other mfg's provide nice apps for monitoring their equipment.

" Im trying to see if i can get total direct sunlight hours measured for the day somewhere"

Several of us posted links to exactly what you are looking for, the solar energy measurements for different geographical areas. The "direct sunlight hours" is kind of meaningless, the links to the various actual measured solar energy in a specific area, which happens in "direct sunlight" or on cloudy days.

andy.connor.e | 7 mars 2020

derotams link provided what i need.

andy.connor.e | 9 mars 2020

Not enough bonus points to award to @derotam

That link contained EXACTLY what i needed. THANK YOU!!!!!!! If i could buy you a beer, or a coffee, i would buy you 3. THANK YOU AGAIN.

****And Check Out the data tracker. It is complete and ready for solar data.****

derotam | 10 mars 2020

@andy, no problem. I haven't dug into that data too much. I have only used the general averages using the PVWatts calculator. The underlying dataset is too much for my current attention span right now, haha.