04/09 Update: any X deliveries recently - or has it stalled again

04/09 Update: any X deliveries recently - or has it stalled again

not seeing a lot of deliveries - can Elon build this thing - are they building this thing

I mean the reveal was Sept. - and we're almost 6 months later and deliveries still seem to be a trickle…

UPDATE: after 200'ish post - the conclusion of this very entertaining thread is: no! evidence suggests deliveries are still a trickle or nonexistent, but clearly in-consequential in quantity at this point in time - however there is strong passion that this will improve any day now. I as the original poster and Tesla fan find the progress to-date to be lack luster and concerning (but people do not share my concern universally).

there is however scant evidence of any major break in the log jam of Model X deliveries - hopefully soon Tesla will over come these delay's.

Update 03/12/2016 - deliveries are seeming to take place - so there was a stall - but it may be gone now - I hope this isn't an end of quarter push - and then another stall after earnings - and I also hope there are not a lot of problems with the cars being delivered - time will tell.

Update 03/16/2016 - deliveries are now clearly happening - this is probably the biggest week so far - with a steady (but not large) number of deliveries being reported - I wouldn't call it "full" production - but Tesla is clearly moving forward - we are now at a tipping point deliveries may continue to grow and become more and more steady - or they may fall back as Tesla does another round of production tuning - the key aspect for me will be if the delivery rate remains mostly steady to slightly increasing after 03/31 - that will indicate to me this is not an artificial end of quarter push and Tesla is actually now ready for production approximately 6 months after they claimed Model X production was beginning (the sept. roll out event).

Update 04/09/2016 - I would appreciate any evidence deliveries have not slowed since the end of the quarter - however my read from the forums is that once again Tesla simply ramped production to provide cars at the end of the quarter so that Elon doesn't have to publicly admit they've designed a car that can be barely built, and certainly so complex that achieving any measure of reliability is a hit/miss affair (battery and drive train reliability is beyond reproach it's a solid mechanical car) - but the doors, windows, sensor continue to be a problem. By all accounts the "march batch" of X's are better than the "december batch" - but still not good enough for actual continued deliveries. Again evidence would be appreciate…but it appears to me personally the Model X will continue a pattern of delivery near the end of a quarter so Tesla does't have to admit defeat publicly - but based on the number of X's at my 2 local bay area service centers (all with less than 1000 miles on them) they are not a reliable car as delivered from the Factory.

makis4t6 | 2 mars 2016

P90D Vin 5XX was told car in body/paint last week. Today I was told no change in status. Seems like a very slow process. Until the Falcon doors are fully automated the production line is going to move at a very slow pace

carlk | 2 mars 2016

Wnen mine comes it will come. What's your skin in this?

elguapo | 2 mars 2016

@dortor It is relatively clear they haven't figured out how to mass produce the car at the quality level they need/require. All of us demand high quality commensurate with the price of the vehicle, so while waiting with no info is annoying and frustrating, if it means a better product in the end, I am all for it. So, yes, deliveries have slowed because production seems to have slowed due to a high focus on QC.

dbh | 2 mars 2016

I went from basically being told "yeah, your car is done, it's off the line, and you can't change anything" (when I asked about changing to six seats from seven) to "your car is in late production" to now "your car has started production" over the course of the last 3 or 4 weeks. Not super encouraging, and not the most detailed status either...but now more worried that they get it right than taking delivery asap. Confirmed 12/23. Still keeping the faith.

Squash.ball | 2 mars 2016

Same story here. I am an early Sig reservation holder...was told car is 'almost there' since late November...went into production 6 weeks ago..each time since then its no more than a few days away...and its still not here...apparently somewhere in transit from factory to my state now..but ETA keeps getting delayed each day..

Innovative product, friendly SMs but horrible production process, logistical operations and customer orientation. At this point I am so frustrated and disappointed that I am not even excited about getting this car anymore.

volkl7 | 2 mars 2016

Prod VIN 263. DS stated, "Your vehicle is undergoing final quality checks, and quality assurance which usually takes a few weeks" on 2/8. He also asked me to have my finances in order as well.
3.5 weeks later, should I be expecting this thing any day now or am I just being foolish?

aesculus | 2 mars 2016

I am OK with a hand made car, in fact I prefer it. Nothing like having a $200,000 custom made car that only costs $100,000. :-)

But honestly it will be better for everyone if they can get the production automated and at high quality.

Bubba2000 | 2 mars 2016

I have a SigX reservation, but in no hurry since I got a mid-2013 P85 that is fun to drive. My neighbor with a SigX 6xx has been told that his MX can be shipped with a missing plastic cover for the wiring harness of the 2nd seat row. Nothing fancy about the cover. Looks like MX miscellaneous issues with supply chain, optimizing manufacturing processes, seals, etc.

I think it will be slow process. Some parts will have to be redesigned to facilitate assembly. Alternate suppliers. Optimize manufacturing, robots, etc. Will take time and $$$, but will get fixed.

socalsam | 2 mars 2016

If they are allowing Europeans to configure- that means they are close. But honestly, this has been the biggest cluster f ever. I'm looking forward to my car but this will likely be my last tesla. I've lost complete faith in the company with their lack of respect for their customers. Apple car, audi, mercedes, etc etc all will have Evs in the future when it's time for me to replace my model s and model x. Right now tesla is the only game in town. In a few years they won't be and we won't have to put up with this bs.

And yes, I have skin in the game. Model s owner and p90d reservstion holder.

vperl | 2 mars 2016

Payment the day I drive away, in bags of one dollar bills, or something that will be uncomfortable for them..

Seems, you pay, but your not sure when you drive away. Bought alot of cars with cash, even with my checkbook, seems Tesla wants everything upfront, but delivery of the X is debatable in their eyes.

Fantasy yes.

socalsam | 2 mars 2016

I will bring a cashiers check with me whenever I get the car. They won't get money a single moment earlier. None of this advance payment nonsense until I see a car that I can take home.

aesculus | 2 mars 2016

@vperl: I am with @socalsam. I will take a cashier's check with me too and hand it over right after the detailed inspection.

Triggerplz | 2 mars 2016

@vperi EM don't care if u pay with one dollar bills or pennies he's not going to be the one who counts it, you will only be wasting the time of some employee who could be using that time helping another fellow customer, and just making your picking it up time an extra hour.. Employee getting paid to count while you sit there watching him for free, you inconveniencing yourself not them..

Triggerplz | 2 mars 2016

@Vperi I know u being sarcastic but just saying :-)

Ankit Mishra | 2 mars 2016

This is not a fodder car. They are building it. Same outlook as mediocre cars won't apply here.
Disclosure - no skin in game.

socalsam | 2 mars 2016

And right on cue- Baghdad bob strikes again.

dbh | 2 mars 2016

I'm keeping the faith, but honestly if it goes 3 or 4 more weeks and it is still "starting production" (after I asked about switching to 6 seats about ~8 weeks prior) I think I will regret not just getting a Model S P90D delivered by Dec '15 for tax reasons, which I know for a fact is awesome...meanwhile, my truck bled out its oil on the street a couple of weeks ago, and I'm borrowing a coworker's '87 bimmer until delivery, whenever that is...

Ankit Mishra | 2 mars 2016

S doesn't have innovations like X. It's good that you are waiting.

dbh | 2 mars 2016

Oh, the S has plenty of innovations, are you kidding me? It's an amazing car. I'd be happy with another S (with the D) for sure....but...I'd rather something a little different. Keeping the faith...for a few more weeks anyway...

Red Sage ca us | 2 mars 2016

socalsam: Sorry to hear your prediction that you will be 'out' of the running as a Tesla Motors Customer after you get your Model X. Surprised to learn of your optimism about traditional automobile manufacturers bringing something more palatable to market within a 'few' years. Choices are good, as is competition, but I expect a direct comparison will show that Tesla's products are superior in most ways, for the next decade, at least. But, if someone really wants a fully electric Buick, Cadillac, Lincoln, AUDI, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Acura, Infiniti, or Lexus more for the sake of distribution method and 'luxury' appointments -- they can certainly spend their own money as they prefer. Just like the guys who stick with their Maserati Ghibli or Cadillac Cimarron claim to do.


Ankit Mishra | 2 mars 2016

S doesn't have FWD, windshield, pedestal seats, interior options, new nose, auto doors, auto spoiler, new lights.

socalsam | 3 mars 2016

@red sage- I admire your eternal optimism and dedication to Tesla. I cant do it anymore. I convinced half a dozen friends to buy a Model S when I got mine almost 2 years ago- I can promise you I will not be the missionary I was going forward. While my next purchase certainly wont be a Cimmaron, I can tell you that it likely wont be a Tesla.

Ill be looking to replace our Model S in 2018 or 2019. There is no doubt that by then there will be many more choices in the EV market by then. Some may be better than Tesla and some may be worse- but atleast there will be choices. The rumored Apple car may arrive. Of course its an unknown but I can tell you that this good will that Tesla has generated will be out the window as the Apple fanboys and girls tend to be much worse than the Telsa fanboys. And Apple if it indeed comes out with a car, they will eat Teslas lunch!

Even if its not apple- this week is the Geneva auto show- everyone and their mother is rolling out EVs- sure they are concepts and not yet available but the writing is on the wall - Telsa will not be the only game in town for much longer and this former Tesla fan could not be happier.

Kudos to Tesla for creating this marketing machine and kudos to Tesla for redefining the automobile as we know it. I applaud the weaning off dependence of foreign oil but this has to be the worst run company ever. Ill even go as far as to say while they have a compelling product in their cars, I have never seen a company so revered by its fan base (myself included) who has to put up with so many smoke and mirrors.

Its now March- less than 1000 cars have been delivered since their launch 5 months ago. Elon knew if he had told the truth that they were not ready to launch the car at the time and had cancelled the launc event, he knew that they would have been skewered in the markets. So what does he do- he rolls out a couple of hand built cars (the production line wasnt even live in October for the X) to make it appear that Tesla has met its deadline. This is deception at its worst. After years of delays, they had zero chance to meet their self imposed deadline of September 29 so they make up a bogus launch with a handful of handbuilt cars. Shame on all of us for believing this was truly the start of the Model X.

Had I known back then that I would not have a car by now, in March, I can promise you I would have moved on to something else and Tesla knows this. This is why they have not said anything- stringing us along hoping that we bury our heads in the sand and just let them take their time without repercussions.

And before one of the fanboys tells me of delays in other cars with other manufacturers, those manufacturers don't take 40k deposits just so they can prop up their balance sheet. Its almost like a ponzi scheme that Tesla is running here.

Shame on me for having faith in this company. Im stuck and its too late to back out now for me now. However I can promise you that Tesla will have to earn me back as a customer and an advocate. The way they have conducted themselves is shameful. and the way that we as customers have allowed ourselves to be manipulated is also shameful.

Thanks Tesla for creating some great cars but you absolutely suck as a company and I for one am done allowing you to take me for granted as a customer.

dortor | 3 mars 2016

Successful companies don't design thing that can't be matter how compelling the innovation appears to be.

5 months in and they are still promising "tomorrow"

dbh | 3 mars 2016

I sure hope they pull through with this, and the over-innovation doesn't become a maintenance problem in the future. I'd like to believe they designed an incredible vehicle that can be built with very high quality..but .just can't be built in very high volume. Hanging in there.

Ankit Mishra | 3 mars 2016

Apple is wheezing. Let it face Tesla. No other company can match Tesla in innovation. Tesla is beating their ICE and will beat their EVs. Tesla won't disclose its working process to reservation holders. Years of delay due to working on electric propulsion. Q1 prediction - 1780 cars. Good progress. Q2 - 8000. Very good. S was launched in same way and maybe 3 too. These are not fodder cars. Misguided thought that 40000 was to beef up cash reserve. Your theory fails with 3. I respect diverse opinions. So, okay.

Ankit Mishra | 3 mars 2016

There is no company on planet attracting attention as Tesla is. It's easy to call "success" by walking on laid path by others. These companies are fodders. They are found at each corner of each city of the world. No tomorrow, deliveries made regularly.

Ankit Mishra | 3 mars 2016

They will pull through. It's their vision. Your doubts won't hold water in next few months. Short sightedness.

socalsam | 3 mars 2016

Hi Ankit,

Your post is so full of fallacy that I hesitate to even respond. I will however make one comment- there are dozens if not hundreds of companies that are as innovative if not more than Tesla. Apple being one of them.

And your comment about "years of delay due to working on electric propulsion" is utterly incorrect. This is the EXACT same propulsion system that has been used in the model s for close to 5 years. There is nothing innovative about their propulsion system anymore. It was innovative 5 years ago not today.

Besides, its not the propulsion system that is not what is causing delays- seals on windshields, sensors on falcon doors that don't function properly, seats that wont work are the things that are causing delays.

Ill ask that if you are going to post on this forum, please post facts and make sensible arguments. What you wrote above is gibberish.

socalsam | 3 mars 2016

@ankit - "Your doubts won't hold water in next few months. Short sightedness."

I mean if you continue to say "next few months" for 18 months, eventually you will be correct.

mbb | 3 mars 2016

@socalsam I am sympathetic about what you guys are going through. I went for MS and now felt lucky in making the decision. From what I see in the forum, model X is an amazing car. Tesla put a lot of hard work in it. MS has all sorts of issues in the beginning too and by the time I got it, it is the best car with great delivery experience. So the problem is not with the company. Keep long term view, and this production nightmare shall pass. Enjoy your car when it arrives

socalsam | 3 mars 2016

thanks MBB- I have a 2014 model S and Ive posted before that its the biggest POS in terms of quality. However when I get loaner cars from Tesla that are newer, the improvement is noticeable. I have no doubt that model X will be rolling off the production lines in large numbers and in good quality soon- however I have lost complete faith in the company and in the future will think twice about giving them any money again.

elguapo | 3 mars 2016

Let's get back to topic.

Yes - deliveries are slow. Yes - we all want our cars yesterday and yes, we all want them in perfect condition. That last piece is the reason for the delay. We hate it, we are frustrated, but it's still going to be an awesome car. Vent if you must...

Ankit Mishra | 3 mars 2016

Apple is a mediocre company in comparison to Tesla. It's sailing on Steve Jobs legacy. Let it make a car, it will be clear then. No company is as innovative as Tesla. Spacex, yes. Google also good. S launched in 2012. New technology. X announced in 2012. 2012 to 2014/15 Tesla struggled with unknowns of E.P. Drive train reliability now shows that. I have shared Elon comment where he said this. Off course, FWD etc took time. Worth it.

Ankit Mishra | 3 mars 2016

Q1- 1780. Q2- 5000-8000. It's progress. 4 months= 6000- 9000. High volume.

socalsam | 3 mars 2016 respond...........

dortor | 3 mars 2016

Apple mediocre - they can make what they offer - profitable - innovative (despite your opinion to contrary) - Tesla is selling snake oil, Apple actually makes what they claim they can make…and delivers in quantities that shame other companies…WOW Ankit - apparently even when Tesla is screwing up they aren't screwing up according to you…

Ankit's secret to Success - 3 years late with a product, claim to start production 6 months ago, include a whole bunch of features you have no idea how to manufacture, and tell your customers you car "is in pre-production" for 5 months…and that next quarter will the quarter that you can finally produce this so called mass-produced product…

so apple isn't innovated but shipped 5x million devices and has over 1 billion devices world wide and profits that are more than most GDP's - Tesla is losing money, can't produce a product they announced over 3 years ago but according to Ankit Tesla is very innovative and successful…

wow, just wow - reality distortion field is in full force - it boggles the mind.

Ankit Mishra | 3 mars 2016

Apple making same thing since Steve Jobs. Siri, fingerprint, bigger screen, 64 bit, force touch? Samsung- Multi window, super amoled, edge display, Spen, big display. Apple good, but marginal improvement each year. Many companies like Apple. I can go on & on. Tesla- 1st product S. Breakthrough. 2nd product- X. Hallmark of innovation. Where is Apple's 2nd breakthrough after iPhone?
3 years- read above. No one claimed start of production. Start of delivery was claimed and done. Yes, 6 & 258 but still. No idea- go tell that to owners driving the car. No one hit kill quater promised. Gradual ramp up promised. You have false expectations.
Apple coasting on Steve Jobs legacy. Tesla will coast when Elon leaves it for other projects. Apple much older. Tesla investing in growth. New field. You talk about successful companies and then say this?

Red Sage ca us | 3 mars 2016

socalsam noted, "I admire your eternal optimism and dedication to Tesla. I cant do it anymore."

I understand. That's how I feel now about Honda/Acura and Chevrolet/Cadillac.

socalsam concluded, "Thanks Tesla for creating some great cars but you absolutely suck as a company and I for one am done allowing you to take me for granted as a customer."

You did a great job of outlining the reasons for your position. I certainly disagree, but believe your decision is warranted, given what you have endured thus far.

socalsam | 3 mars 2016

@redsage - Thank you. I wish more people here were as honest and understanding as you have been. I appreciate the way you support the company but appreciate more how you can see both sides of the coin.

Ankit and Carl could learn lots from you.

dortor | 3 mars 2016

sometimes innovation is simply following through on what you way you're going to do - there are few if any companies that operate at the scale of Apple (or samsung) and do so with consistency. To suggest that these companies are lagging shows the true depth of your understanding of actually producing products and delivering them.

It's fairly easy to stand up on stage and lie about your capabilities - Tesla has shown it can do that time and time again...follow through and execution is really really really hard and what separates successful companies from historical footnotes…

we'll see where Tesla ends up, but to suggest they are more innovative that all other companies is the height of hubris and ignores factual and gross execution problems that history teaches us doom otherwise promising companies.

vperl | 3 mars 2016

And it is March......

Please, have a nice first quarter, with peace meal X deliveries.

But, we knew this three months ago when the new round of enablers start excusing ittybitty X deliveries, with promise's of delivery grandeur of MX.

Darryl | 3 mars 2016

We have at least 4 or 5 forums about the same subject so as not to repeat information here is a link:

Ankit Mishra | 3 mars 2016

Apple/Samsung are much older. Samsung couldn't produce S6 edge in mass because it never thought people would prefer it more. Let Tesla have few more years and then compare it with mass production giants.

socalsam | 3 mars 2016

@vperl- honestly its turning into a joke. Musk is gonna have some splaining to do at the next investor call but then again- he can just say- everything is on track, nothing to see here and we will do 500k deliveries in 2020 and all will be forgiven by the enablers.

Darryl | 3 mars 2016

Regarding deliveries. I know we have more than five deliveries but this is what the shows:

NJ. P90D
MT. P90D
NY. P90D
CA. P90D

socalsam | 3 mars 2016

@ankit- please go away. You have no clue what you are talking about.

dortor | 3 mars 2016

give it a few more years - at this rate they have a few more months…over promising is not something to be excused - claiming innovation that can't be produced is not something to excuse - we're talking about Tesla's viability as a company - and their inability to follow through on what they publicly claim they can execute. If they do not fix this the market and their customers will abandon them and their innovation will stop…

don't lie to your investors, customers, suppliers or employees - it won't go well for you. No matter how innovate a story your lie tells, it's still a lie.

Innovation is easy if you don't have to follow through…and don't belittle the on going accomplishments of truly successful companies by claiming it's related to their age - it has nothing to do with age, but everything to do with honesty and self imposed constraints, these companies bring products to market they can actually produce in quantities sufficient to be successful.

Any idiot can claim to design/produce a cutting edge product that he can only make 10 of - the trick is to achieve the right mix of new tech/innovation while retaining the ability to actually follow through on your promises.

The Model X roll out has been a sham from day 1 and only continues to prove Elon while innovative isn't smart enough to constrain his vision to something that can be successfully executed.

Red Sage ca us | 3 mars 2016

I've learned more about playing chess from the games I lost than I ever did in the games I won. I enjoy the challenge of learning and improving my game through practice and perseverance. I try to apply the same principles to my life in the Real World.

There have been times when someone has advised me that I take the world far too seriously... And during the same exact calendar day the very same person has advised me that I need to 'grow up' and be more serious. I can see the wisdom of such words, even though they are seemingly advise that I do completely different things.

Essentially, it is a lesson about balance. One can certainly learn from listening to criticism from others, and heeding their advice. But it is also a very good idea to fully examine the good advice you are given so that you may realize it doesn't apply to you at all, and should be ignored entirely.

Expecting a company that has just entered its second decade of existence to be like others that have been around over 100 years seems to be a bad idea. Expecting a company that has never had a capacity for even 100,000 units annually to use their resources the same way as others that produce around 10,000,000 units per year seems rather shortsighted. Expecting a company that has an entirely different mission statement to adopt the motivational goals of someone else seems incredibly unfair.

People forget that after initial success with the Apple II, Steve Jobs was considered an idiot and a loser with the Lisa, even though it was a superior platform. People forget that Apple was for the better part of two decades considered a dismal failure when sales of the Macintosh were compared to those of PC Compatibles. Everyone blamed Steve's reluctance to relinquish full control over hardware development with a closed system for Apple's lagging behind the PC World. And the very same 'Everyone' now laud Steve Jobs for the introduction of the closed system of hardware and software that is various iOS devices today.

Everyone can go take a flying leap.

Because 'Everyone' wants Elon Musk to shut the [FLOCK] up. And, simultaneously, 'Everyone' wants Elon Musk to speak up. I say that 'Everyone' should make up their damned minds.

By the way...

IBM ... 134.3 B
MSFT ... 416.9 B
AAPL ... 563.1 B

Who's laughing now?

Ankit Mishra | 3 mars 2016

You have been saying it since 6 months. How many more till doomsday? If you refuse to see the regular deliveries of "can't be produced", no one can help you. No one has lied. Q3 launch- check. Hundred per week- check. Nothing else was promised. They have been informing people about challenges regularly. Now, they say no more challenges. Innovation is easy if you are talking about Apple's innovation. It depends on age too. S had same growing problems, but they are increasing it sales. I gave you example of S6 edge. A new innovation and even Samsung fell. You can call names, but what you will do in next few months? It's your limitation that you have to put limits on innovation, not Elon's.

socalsam | 3 mars 2016

soooo what you are saying is that apple is in fact an innovative company? :)

So what happens when Apple enters the automobile market? What happens to Tesla?