Forums

A little confused...

A little confused...

I'm not on the list for a 3, but I thought they weren't being released until the end of this year? Have they already been released? (I ask what's up because I noticed one parked outside my building this evening.)

By the way, the front end looked really good. And the car isn't too small either. I think people will be happy.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 11 september 2017

Deliveries began July 28, 2017. They are progressing slowly. Tesla is ramping up Production. They expect to reach a 20,000 unit per month mark during December 2017.

SpeedyEddy | 11 september 2017

OP: What rock have you been sleeping under? Or was it so joyfull to drive your X that no news on anything reached you?
BTW North Korea now has an H Bomb, and 3 hurricanes have hit the US (and blew our beautiful st Maarten totally away).
So, now read the threads to get the news on M3 (which will be good enough, when you think MX is best))

PhillyGal | 11 september 2017

Released is a tricky term. A very limited number of employees and VIPs have already taken delivery but as far as we know, no non-employee (or non-VIP) has even been invited to configure yet, let alone get the car.

Where do you work? (City, state.)

MX is Best | 11 september 2017

Wow. I think I'm going to politely bow out of this sub forum. Not sure of the prevailing sanity in these areas.

LostInTx | 11 september 2017

MX, there are some on here who will go out of their way to belittle you at every opportunity. They could be quiet and keep their hands off their keyboard but it's just not in their nature. These keyboard cowards type things they'd never have the stones to say face to face. You just have to let it go - I've slowly learned to do so over the past few months.

PhillyGal is one from whom you'll always get friendly and informative information. Others? Not so much.

KP in NPT | 11 september 2017

Actually SpeedyEddy isn't a regular poster an I personally found his attempt at humor (giving him he benefit of the doubt that that's what it was) a fail.

Yes, the delivery party was at the end of July. Deliveries to the first non-employees is supposedly in October.

jordanrichard | 11 september 2017

MX I think where you got "end of 2017" from was that Elon/Tesla had said that had hoped to have the Modle 3 out by the last quarter of 2017. They in fact beat that timeline and as mentioned above delivered the first car on July 28th. If you were to put place a deposit/get at reservation today, you will not see your car between 12 to 18 months from now. There are some 500,000 reservations from around the world.

Rocky_H | 11 september 2017

I think it's just that for such big news that was covered by almost every tech-related site, a few seconds of Googling would have gotten the answer faster and easier than asking on the forum and waiting for responses.

Carl Thompson | 11 september 2017

@jordanrichard:
" They in fact beat that timeline and as mentioned above delivered the first car on July 28th."

I think it's debatable whether delivering cars to employees under NDA who are not permitted to sell or even talk about them counts. In my opinion it only counts when the first "regular" buyer gets the car.

That said it seems a virtual lock that Tesla will deliver cars to regular folk next month well ahead of the end of the year.

Carl

Bluesday Afternoon | 11 september 2017

I guess I'm one of the early "regular folks". And, I was thinking I was special. I may have to stop reading on this forum before I become irregular.

KP in NPT | 11 september 2017

Are cars registered to owners? Then they're delivered.

Carl Thompson | 11 september 2017

@Simply Red

LOL! Trust me, you _are_ special. Tesla just doesn't know it yet.

Carl

SpeedyEddy | 12 september 2017

Indeed, @ KP in NPT Just tried to make a funny comment, fully understanding someone enjoying his MX so much, leaving him no time to read us over here being enthousiastic as well (about our coming joy, called M3). No offence (but when understood as insulting: BIG SORRY to those readers)

jordanrichard | 13 september 2017

Carl, then it could be debatable that existing Tesla owners with their preferential placement in the reservation line are not "regular" people either.

Haggy | 13 september 2017

You are correct that the end of 2017 was the original target date. People realistically expected to see a handful of cars come out of the factory by the end of December, if Tesla met its goal. As time went on, Tesla changed that to the second half of 2017, which still would have been correct if they came out in December.

When Tesla gave a more detailed explanation of the plan, it showed that it would have been theoretically possible to start production by the beginning of July 2017, if nothing went wrong and every single supplier delivered parts on time based on what the contracts said. Nobody thought that it was realistic to expect not a single thing to go wrong.

In reality, any supplier that wants to meet the requirement should have gotten parts to Tesla in advance of the deadline and the worst case should have been to get them in at the last minute, and I thought the end of July was the earliest we'd see the cars.

Critics gave all sorts of reasons why Tesla would be late. I spent the time between the unveiling and when things got close to production explaining why their reasoning was wrong. Tesla merely did things on time, but had an unwarranted reputation for being late. For every person like me, there were 100 arguing against it with irrelevant facts. So it's not surprising that you didn't hear about it, even if you weren't living under a rock.

bmalloy0 | 13 september 2017

Adding on to Haggy, "Nobody thought that it was realistic to expect not a single thing to go wrong."

Even Elon said that there was basically no way to actually reach July 1 production, and really they only had that to light a fire under everyone's rear ends.

Frank99 | 13 september 2017

+1 Haggy

I think the overwhelming demand for the Model 3 drove suppliers to move faster than they normally would. They didn't want to be another SHW ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/01/27/tesla-fires-german... ) in an extraordinarily public development. This force likely surprised both Elon and the rest of the suppliers.

As long as Tesla doesn't rely on the same effect for the Y or other future models, they'll be good.

Rocky_H | 14 september 2017

@Haggy, Quote: "Tesla merely did things on time, but had an unwarranted reputation for being late."

Come on now--let's be real. They had a well warranted and proven record of being late on almost everything. That's why it was such a shock and departure from their previous history that the Model 3 was early.

Frank99 | 14 september 2017

I agree with Haggy's history - when I reserved, the Tesla community was generally guiding to a few cars being delivered in 2017, with a slow ramp through 2018. They had a lot of evidence on their side for that, and even Tesla was only lukewarm in suggesting better.

Then April 1 dawned, and they had $200+ million dollars in deposits from eager purchasers, and had to "..rethink production planning". I think their success at doing so, and executing, has dumbfounded everyone in the world - from existing customers, prospective customers, to production planners at GM.

Frank99 | 14 september 2017

Well, everyone but Haggy....

Carl Thompson | 14 september 2017

Yes, the original guidance was 2H2017. But _after_ that Tesla did come out with ambitious ramp numbers which turned out to be too ambitious and were revised down. They did very clearly say those were best case numbers and EM would dance around it with wording approximating "that's what we plan based on the information we have now." So I can understand how some people who weren't paying close attention might have thought the final ramp might have been faster.

Carl

Haggy | 14 september 2017

I was thinking optimistically 100,000 reservations.

The Model S was months late, but that was due to suppliers refusing to deal with Tesla. The Model X was an exception, essentially because they didn't release a V1 or V2 and made the current one what could have been V3. That was a mistake in retrospect, but they were "late" in general terms. By the time they announced a release date, they stuck to it. The event for the release day did start late, so if you want to get into minutes, I'll grant you that.

The Gigafactory has been ahead of schedule and the various parts opened ahead of schedule. In terms of deliveries, the forecast back in early 2013 based on the Panasonic contract was that Tesla would be able to sell 100,000 cars a year by 2017 and they are well on target. The number of vehicles per quarter might not have lined up neatly with throughput, and Tesla could have played more games, such as not having vehicles in transit. That could have been done by screwing over customers who live far from the factory and concentrating on those who would be able to pick up their cars near the factory, even if they placed their order two weeks before the end of the quarter. It wouldn't have been good for customers or Tesla though but it could have allowed Tesla to meet goals for specific quarters or at least come very close.

If you look at the big picture, Tesla has been late on many things, but not by much and not in a way that the consequences were what people thought they were. If they missed deliveries for a given quarter because they got the factory up to a certain speed a couple of weeks too late, it meant that some customers might have gotten their cars a couple of weeks later, but probably in line with when Tesla said they'd get them. In those cases, missing targets didn't reflect problems with the long term trend, nor did they reflect a softening of the market, which would have been the case with other manufacturers. And they also ignore the big picture that deliveries since the company has been around have been far greater that what was expected for most years. That part blew away what analysts predicted. Had Tesla merely given guidance for smaller amounts for those quarters when they were off, it still would have shown tremendous growth year over year and quarter over prior years for that quarter.

The big picture is that the Model S was about six months late when Tesla was a new company. All the reasons for it did not apply to the Model 3, which had suppliers fighting to get contracts. The Model X was an overly complex design and was not designed to be easy to manufacture. The desired time frame was announced years before Tesla had a final design. They didn't compromise when they found parts were difficult. It in no way indicated potential problems with the Model 3, which was substantially designed by the unveiling, was designed for ease of manufacture and wasn't subject to any of the specifics that made Tesla late in the past.

If you factor in how many months Tesla was off by for the Model 3, the Model S, the Gigafactory and recognize the Model X as an aberration, then Tesla has a pretty good track record, especially considering that what happened with the Model S was expected for a start up.

Rocky_H | 14 september 2017

Oh that's right, the Gigafactory is the other thing they were not late on.

Carl Thompson | 14 september 2017

@Rocky_H

Good point. The Gigafactory has not been delayed as far as I know. But of course Panasonic is running that show, right?

Carl

KP in NPT | 14 september 2017

+1000 Haggy.

Big picture. Even the problems with the X - they eventually got sorted. If the 3 is a few months late, in the big scheme (say, in a year or 2,) it won't matter.