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I saw this article in Forbes and wonder if anyone else is worried? https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/03/26/teslas-plummeting-sha...

babyjocko | 1 april 2018

BTW, this is typically how speculative stocks trend. They skyrocket just based on euphoria. But, as time passes, investors say, SHOW ME THE MONEY. That's when they fall to a price better valuated by fundamentals. If the stock has bad fundamentals across the board, then it will fall accordingly. If after all is said and done, they profit, then it will rise again, but more inline with fundamentals, not euphoria.

amareshvanga | 1 april 2018

i have been following stocks for a while and studied successful stocks for a while.
There is no real support of tesla.its support line for 50 day and 200 day MVA is reversed.
there are lot of fundamental and technical data that don't go in Tesla's favor which causes it to be very volatile
again with a very intelligent CEO at helm,very good innovation and long term goals, Tesla is going to be defy the odds for sure.The timing might be little off which will cause a bumpy ride.But if you look at this stock 10 years later it is going to be 200-300 percent more for sure.As far as the timing of buying.Buying at bottom will ensure high returns for sure.But how would you time the bottom. wait for good up day and then following for another 2-3 days so that these days don't undercut the low on first day and usually following this there is a day which is up in volume and with price gain which will indicate institutional buying.This is when you jump and buy the stock.This way u avoid catching the stock in middle of fall

SO | 1 april 2018

Ah, The ole “Profits vs Growth” argument. Tesla needs to expand and stay ahead of the competition. Worry about profits once expansion is no longer necessary.

RadOne | 1 april 2018

@amareshvanga. You have studied stocks for a while but you say "Tesla is going to be defy the odds for sure." Anyone who actually does studies stocks know that trying to defy the odds is risky at best. Not a great plan to invest.

Earl and Nagin ... | 1 april 2018

@amareshvanga,
You may think you've studied stocks "for a while", however, unless you're a student of history from before you were likely born, you probably haven't studied the right things. If your teachers were the socialists that have infected most higher learning over the past few decades, you missed out entirely. There hasn't been a serious growth stock in the industrial sector for over 100 years. Intel and the semiconductor industry growth in the '70's and '80's might come close but they are different too. It will be the lessons of Westinghouse, Edison, Vanderbilt, Bell, Morse, Ford, Deere, Morgan, Carnegie, etc that you'll need to study to understand what Tesla is.
As Musk says, most people only know how to learn by analogy.
Watching the silly, 'dot.com' stocks from the '80's is worthless since they simply re-invented old business using a new tool, the internet. The goofy 'tech' stocks recently (FANG) are totally useless to watch because their main real strength is their brand image. None of those were dependent on spending cash to build expensive manufacturing infrastructure, that, once spent, would present barriers to entry that would block would-be competitors.
Musk and Tesla's business works on first principles analysis.
Don't look at the stock. Look at the business.
Among the first principles for a business are:
1) do they have a product that is better than other means of accomplishing the same goal?
2) can they manufacture the product for what people are willing to pay?
3) can they manufacture the product?
4) How many people are willing to pay for the product?
5) can would-be competitors get into the business and take it away?
I think that if you ask yourself how Tesla fares with the above 5 questions, you'll be in a better position to determine the viability and value of Tesla.
I reached my personal answer a dozen years ago before TSLA even had their IPO and it hasn't changed.

RadOne | 1 april 2018

5) Yes, possibly. As a student of history, you know this happens all the time.

Mike83 | 1 april 2018

I posted this on another thread but it might be a good thing to do to protect your investments from the gamblers.

I checked and it won't hurt to put a GTC sell order much higher than the stock price like $800 or higher as this may make the stock unavailable to borrow for the shorters. Also it only lasts for 90 days and if the stock moves higher don't forget to move the sell price higher. Hit em where it hurts.

Madatgascar | 2 april 2018

5) can would-be competitors get into the business and take it away?
Yes!
But WILL they?
No!
Only another electric car start-up would be in a position to do this. Big auto is conflicted. The EV future will belong to Tesla and the Chinese.

Earl and Nagin ... | 2 april 2018

@RadOne,
"5) can would-be competitors get into the business and take it away?"
Possibly but not likely. There are 2 kinds of would-be competitors:
a) Incumbent ICE auto manufacturers: who's entire management, marketing, sales, and most of their engineering teams only know how to design and build ICE vehicles
b) folks who've never built a car before.
The folks in a) have so much internal resistance to EVs that they'll have to take 1 step backward for every 2 steps forward, just clearing the dead weight out of the way. Not a huge threat
The folks in b) are 10 years behind Tesla in figuring out how to make cars and they'd have to come up with a brilliant game plan that would allow them to hemorrhage for that decade while trying to build their manufacturing facility, their brand image, and earn customer loyalty.
Sure these things may happen . . .

Madatgascar | 2 april 2018

@Earl,
You forgot (c) for Chinese. What to you make of that as a competitive threat?

Earl and Nagin ... | 2 april 2018

@Matagascar,
Good point. Foreign threats have traditionally been able to hide behind protectionist policies in order to get that 10 years of maturation necessary for their auto industries until they can threaten US industries they've copied (most noticeable recent examples have been Japan and Korea) Coupled with cheap slave labor, massive capital, and naive US foreign policy, that could be a potential threat in a maybe decade or so. Unless, of course these things change.
Has nothing to do with the viability of TSLA today though since current investors will still make out in the long run.
I test drove a BYD some time ago, alongside my Tesla Roadster. There was no comparison then but I haven't seen close hand where they are now. Tesla certainly has come a long way since then though.

Rumi11 | 2 april 2018

I do think the stock is a bit risky for the short term, but if you're betting on holding on to it through ups and downs overany years, it suddenly becomes a good risk. I just can't see Tesla failing in the long run.

Madatgascar | 3 april 2018

Zoom way out and look at it this way: Tesla has developed elegant and cost effective solutions for creating energy, storing energy, and using energy without relying on fossil fuels, in a way that is scalable to solve many of the problems the earth will surely be facing for generations to come.

Its core businesses are demonstrably profitable (losses are primarily due to growth), so no creditor would want to jeopardize continued operations. I think the next big story will be more on the energy side, and also perhaps communications (synergy w/ SpaceX). Just a guess. All this will continue to flummox the chart reading economists who continue to call it Tesla Motors and compare it to Ford.

They may be forced to scale back growth, they may be acquired, worst case scenario even bankruptcy, but I don’t see a scenario where the machine turns off.

babyjocko | 3 april 2018

@Rumi11, until TSLA has positive cash flow and lower debt ratios, bankruptcy will always be threatening, in which case there may not be many years ahead.

@Madatgascar, there is a scenario where the "machine" turns off: Big Oil. That's a powerful force that really could kill all of Tesla at will. Even if they don't kill it all, they can marginalize it. In any case, there really is nothing extraordinary about Tesla as it is. There would have to be a lot more "futuristic thinking" by Elon and company for TSLA to be a giant.

Batteries and solar energy are not profitable. Cars are. But, even if Tesla were profitable with their existing 3 cars, it takes a lot more to compete. Scaling to that point would take many years generating a lot more losses, which Telsa cannot afford. Toyota, the worlds #1 car manufacturer makes over 100 models.

SamO | 3 april 2018

babyfucknuts,

My favorite parts:

1. Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.

2. Our initial customer satisfaction score for Model 3 quality is above 93%, which is the highest score in Tesla's history.

3. The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era.

Madatgascar | 3 april 2018

I understand the batteries are profitable. Solar will depend on the outcome of trade war and uptake on the solar roof, which could be disruptive. I sure want one of those on my house!

SamO | 3 april 2018

Solar is profitable. Batteries are profitable. More b/s clown FUD.

BozieB | 3 april 2018

Earl and Nagin:
Finally, some one who has managed to look behind all the rhetoric and understand the core principals that is,,,
Tesla.

Rumi11 | 3 april 2018

Tesla is not just a brand or product. It is a lifestyle. As such, I just cannot picture it failing in the long run. I have never witnessed this type of loyalty or enthusiasm from such diverse demographics. (I'm a copywriter and content strategist.) Anyway, I'm on the bandwagon.

Al1 | 4 april 2018

It is well earned loyalty and enthusiasm. Tesla will dwarf all electric cars and all hybrid cars before the end of this year.

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