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2015 Outlook Tesla Motors factory in Fremont, California.

2015 Outlook Tesla Motors factory in Fremont, California.

2014 is coming to an end (but there are still 52 days left), and so far it has been a great year for Tesla Motors, actually. But which Tesla Motors related thoughts and expectations do we have for 2015? Would you like to share your thoughts and expectations?

There are lots of separate/different topics which can discussed here in this thread (as long as it's related to Tesla Motors factory in Fremont, California, in 2015).

Personally, I think that 2015 is going to be the year of the Tesla Model X. All the preparations for making the Tesla Model X "a diamond without a flaw" and getting all the details right. All the preparations for the start of the production of the Tesla Model X (supply chain, body center, etc.).

This was mentioned in the 2014 Q3 Earnings Report Shareholder Letter:

"In contrast to Q3, actions to further increase capacity have been designed to be less disruptive, thus enabling us to increase output at a steadier and more predictable pace. For example, our Model X body center will initially be independent from our Model S body center, allowing us to start building Model X bodies without impacting Model S production."

So, the factory shutdown as in July 2014 is not going to happen in 2015, and that's very good for the continuation of the steady pace of production of the Tesla Model S cars in 2015.

This was also mentioned in the 2014 Q3 Earnings Report Shareholder Letter:

"we expect our annual production will increase by over 50% in 2014, again in 2015 and probably for several years to follow."

During the Conference Call Elon Musk confirmed that this 50% increase was purely related to the production of the Tesla Model S, meaning that the production numbers of the Tesla Model X cars will be additional to the mentioned 50% increase.

My prediction for 2015:
60.000 Tesla Model S deliveries
20.000 Tesla Model X deliveries

Some people may possibly think that that's a bit too optimistic.

Would you like to share your thoughts and/or expectations and/or predictions?

Model ☰ | 2014年11月9日

During the Conference Call Elon Musk confirmed that this 50% increase was purely related to the production of the Tesla Model S ...

I have some trouble trying to interpret this. Does it say that they will increase production of the Model S with (at least) 50%, and that production of the Model X will be added to that number? Or does it means "We will increase production by 50%. If we can not deliver the Model X, then we will do it with only Model S".

Previously it has been talked about a production target of around 60k for 2015, not specifying that this was only Model S if I understand things right.

Benz | 2014年11月9日

A 50% increase (compared to 2014) in production numbers of Tesla Model S cars in 2015.

An analist did ask if that 50% increase referred to just the Tesla Model S. And he mentioned "with high confidense" as well.

All Tesla Model S cars produced in 2015 will be in addition to that 50% increase. Meaning that the actual total number of cars produced in 2015 will be more than a 50% increase (compared to 2014).

"Previously it has been talked about a production target of around 60k for 2015, not specifying that this was only Model S if I understand things right."

That 60.000 total number of cars produced in 2015 was mentioned by Elon Musk on July 31st, 2014 during the Conference Call of the Earnings Report Q2 2014. And that was a total for the Tesla Model S + Tesla Model X cars produced in 2015.

SamO | 2014年11月9日

@Model ☰,

"I have some trouble trying to interpret this. Does it say that they will increase production of the Model S with (at least) 50%, and that production of the Model X will be added to that number?"

Elon Musk - "Let's just say that achieving 50,000 units of the Model S next year (2015) is going to be no problem."

Elon Musk - "It really addresses a different market segment that some people want an SUV and some people want a sedan and they're about 50:50 in the market. So that's why we feel confident in predicting a 50% growth in orders and deliveries that's fairly comfortable next year and then at least a 50% growth in 2016 again and in subsequent years too."

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank
50% was just Model S, though, is that right?

Elon Musk
That's correct. Yes. So it would be some number -- fair enough. It would be some number greater than 50% if you include X.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2647055-tesla-motors-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-...

Model ☰ | 2014年11月9日

@SamO:
Elon Musk: That's correct. Yes. So it would be some number -- fair enough. It would be some number greater than 50% if you include X.

Yes, I read that. Then go back and read what Elon said before this question. It's quite long, so I won't quote it all here. But he is not talking about Model S, but Model X, and concludes with that it is 50:50 marked for SUV vs sedans, so he is comfortable with predicting at least 50% grows next year, and still the next year again and again....

And then this question, "50% was just Model S, though, is that right?". Is he asking if the 50% grows is only Model S (witch is not at all what Elon just said) or if 50% of the deliveries in 2015 will be Model S? Or something else?

I think - yes, it's just me thinking, nothing more ;) - that he (Elon) was more thinking about "That's correct, if we wait to 2016 with Model X, we will still meet our goal of 50% grows in production with just Model S", but stopped him self from saying the rest. Starting to talk about delaying Model X by one year, not half a year, was not the right thing to do...

In the end, whats matter is "how many cars can be produced at the line(s) in Fremont during 2015?". And the answer seams to be "at least 50% grows" from 2014. It's the same line(s) that will produce Model S and Model X, and the number will be the same either way, as long as it is a demand for what they produce.

So I predict the will produce 60->75k cars next year. But I will not go on guessing how many MS vs. MX.

Benz | 2014年11月9日

@Model ☰

Tesla Motors – Third Quarter 2014 Shareholder Letter (first page):

• Model S orders and deliveries alone expected to increase by 50% in 2015.

That in combination with what Elon Musk's comments/answers during the Conference Call, leaves no room for confusion. At least, that's what I think about it.

Tesla Model S deliveries in 2015 = 2014 x 1.5 = 33,000 x 1.5 = 49,500

Personally, I expect a global total of 60,000 Tesla Model S deliveries in 2015. In addition to that, I expect a global total of 20,000 Tesla Model X deliveries in 2015.

Model ☰ | 2014年11月9日

@Benz:
Tesla Motors – Third Quarter 2014 Shareholder Letter (first page):

Aha! There the bit of information that I had overlooked! Thanks :)

Benz | 2014年11月9日

@Model ☰

That's ok, I should have mentioned it in my first reply to your first post/comment in this thread.

Red Sage ca us | 2014年11月10日

I haven't read other responses yet. So this is only my reply to the OP.

I think it is best to explain my rationale by working backward. Last year JB Straubel gave a presentation at Stanford. One of the slides he used forcasted Tesla Motors intent to reach a 700,000 unit capacity at Fremont by 2019. We know now that the Model ≡ will comprise 500,000 of that capacity by 2020.

But what of the other 200,000 units? Simple. That will be comprised of the Model S and Model X.

How will that happen? Easily. The Model S has already reached an annualized production rate of 50,000. That is why Elon Musk was able to so handily dismiss inquiries about a concern for their production during 2015. The goal is to reach a 100,000 unit production rate, equivalent to 2,000 per week, by the end of 2015. Of that, 50,000 of the Model S will be built. That happens to coincide with being 50% more than is estimated for 2014 production of Model S.

Ultimately, the Model X will be more popular than the Model S. You can see this by comparing sales of high end crossovers to high end sedans among other marques. Consistently, the crossovers outsell the sedan counterparts by at least a 3:1 ratio. So with Model S at 50,000 per year, Model X will be on track to reach 150,000 per year as capacity expands.

But its first year Tesla Motors will take it slow with Model X. Its production will certainly ramp up a quicker than the Model S did. And the result will be about 20,000 in 2015.

These are, of course, minimums. I think that Tesla Motors will gradually accelerate production of Model X through 2016. Model S sales will not be 'flat', but they will not hold precedence either. Technically, neither will be the Model X. Both exist to pave the way for Model ≡, which will arrive the following year.

Brian H | 2014年11月10日

RS;
+1

Anemometer | 2014年11月10日

+2. And they have to get a Model S facelift in somewhere in all that. That can be retrofitted ;-)

Benz | 2014年11月11日

@ Red Sage

+1

Benz | 2014年11月11日

Maoing has posted this message on TMC:

"Tesla factory working on two shifts/day and six days/week.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showt...l=1#post810464

Is it the same as before or just some extra efforts to catch up the production loss?"

Since the unveiling of the D and Autopilot, it must be raining reservations and orders for the Tesla Model S.

They are probably already producing more than 1,000 Tesla Model S cars per week.

holidayday | 2014年11月11日

2015 Tesla production: 54,000

Predictions: Model S

2015 Q1: 11,500
2015 Q2: 13,000
2015 Q3: 13,500
2015 Q4: 14,000

2015 Model S: 52,000

Predictions: Model X

2015 Q1: 0
2015 Q2: 0
2015 Q3: 500
2015 Q4: 1500

2015 Model X: 2000

If we go by the Q3 conference call, the aim is 50% more in 2015 than 2014. This would make it 33,000 x 1.5 = 49,500 for current estimate.
As Tesla simplifies its production scheme (fewer options), then batches of similar vehicles can be larger. This reduces adjustment time for different options that need to be installed. (Different roof? include rear seats? Tech Option? etc)

I'm following Tesla's lead and low-balling estimates because Tesla is experiencing expected production issues. It takes time to retool things. It takes time to train a second or third shift. It takes time to build in perfection.
2015 is basically a test year to improve production efficiencies in preparation for the Model 3 volumes.

Estimate 60,000 run rate for Model S in 2016 with growth in Model X to be about 20,000.
Future educated guesses:
2015 with 52,000 Model S, 2000 Model X.
2016 with 60,000 Model S, 20,000 Model X.
2017 with 60,000 Model S, 60,000 Model X, and 5000 Model 3.
2018 with 60,000 Model S, 60,000 Model X, and 60,000 Model 3.
2019 with 60,000 Model S, 60,000 Model X, and 150,000 Model 3.
2020 with 60,000 Model S, 60,000 Model X, and 400,000 Model 3.
2021 with 60,000 Model S, 60,000 Model X, 600,000 Model 3, and 1000 Model (?)
growth of (?) and other models in years to follow with these future Wild Ass Guesses (WAGs) (notice about 50% per year):
2022 - 1.1 million
2023 - 1.6 million
2024 - 2.4 million
2025 - 3.6 million

Grinnin'.VA | 2014年11月11日

@ Red Sage @ca.us | November 10, 2014

Ultimately, the Model X will be more popular than the Model S.

IMO, this depends on how Tesla prices MX compared with MS. Keep in mind that an MX costs more to build than an MS with the same performance and range.

Go Tesla!
Ron :)

Brian H | 2014年11月11日

Should adhere to the ICE ratio of 3:1 X:S unless there's a reason to make an exception.

Benz | 2014年11月12日

@ holidayday

Delivery numbers in the coming 6 years:

2015
Tesla Model S: 60.000
Tesla Model X: 20.000

2016
Tesla Model S: 90.000
Tesla Model X: 90.000

2017
Tesla Model S: 150.000
Tesla Model X: 150.000
Tesla Model 3: 100.000

2018
Tesla Model S: 200.000
Tesla Model X: 200.000
Tesla Model 3: 300.000

2019
Tesla Model S: 250.000
Tesla Model X: 250.000
Tesla Model 3: 500.000

2020
Tesla Model S: 300.000
Tesla Model X: 300.000
Tesla Model 3: 900.000
Tesla Model ?: .......

Brian H | 2014年11月12日

Try again, but keep the X 3X the S. The "balanced" number just applies for a year or so.

Benz | 2014年11月12日

@ Brian H

Are sedans and SUV's not equally popular (worldwide)?

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月12日

There is no chance that Tesla will reach 300 000 or even 200 000 a year on either S or the X models at current price points. The market isn't there for such kind of sales numbers. My guess would be that Tesla won't sell more than 100 000 cars a year (which is still very high at that price point) per model S or X.

They need to have a much cheaper car, like the Model E, to get to a number of several hundred thousands sales per year for a single model.

SamO | 2014年11月12日

TM will sell 200,000+ MS & MX (combined) per year, no later than 2017.

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月12日

SamO:

Prediction total sales Tesla Motors

2014: 35 000
2015: 65 000
2016: 100 000
2017: 150 000 (No Model E this year, peak S and X sales)
2018: 225 000 (Model E counts for 100 000)
2019: 350 000 (Model E 250 000)
2020: 450 000 (New Model?)

And I think those are happy figures.

SamO | 2014年11月12日

Why are MS & MX sales dropping in 2018-2020?

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月12日

SamO:

Sales will drop due to competition. S and X are still expensive cars and the market is only so big. Model E will take a share plus other manufacturers like Audi and VW will release competetive EV's during those years. The S and the X are getting old by this time, and you don't want to pay premium for and older model.

SamO | 2014年11月12日

@Kingsthrone,

Well that is one theory.

Certainly others have predicted a peak of sales for the MS (and been wrong), but never heard anyone predict that the Model X will be an "older model" by 2017. You know it will only be 18 months old, right?

You know that SUVs outsell their sedan counterparts 3 to 1?

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月12日

SamO:

Model X is based on the same platform as Model S and will inherit much if it's tech. Basically the Model X is an older car than a 2015. It should have been released in the end of 2013. Model X sales peak will probably, due to the late release, be delayed a year or so compared to the Model S. Cars at this price point needs to be up to date in order to sell very well.

I would say my view is optimistic since there will be growth during 2015, 2016 and 2017 for both S and X.

Brian H | 2014年11月12日

Doubt it. The MX will kill. Elon: "MX shoppers don't have enough data to be as enthusiastic as they are, yet. But they're right."

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月12日

Brian H:

The Model X is also a gamble. It will be more expensive than the Model S, it will have less range than the Model S and it has a totally new untested door design. And it seriously needs a larger battery to be able to stay for a couple of years.

I am however more curious about how the Model X actually will sell, rather than try to predict it's future. That's why i baked the Model S and X sales together.

I would vote for a wagon version of the Model S though. Would sell better in Europe than a SUV.

vgarbutt | 2014年11月12日

The one small issue with the logic involved in trying to figure out how many of each model will be built in a year, AFTER the introduction of the model 3.

Lets say at the target production goal of 500,000 a year.

I dont imagine that each model will get a third of 500,000. I think it more likely to be something like 75,000 each for the X and S and 350,000 for the model 3. The market for the model 3 is mind bendingly huge.

I want a fourth generation lease of a p85d!!!

Red Sage ca us | 2014年11月13日

Grinnin' Ron & Kingsthrone: There is no 'limited market' when the traditional automobile manufacturers join the fray with expensive SUVs/CUVs, so why should there be one for Tesla Motors?

Stop by GoodCarBadCar to check sales statistics for North America.

The Model X will likely be listed as a competitor to those listed as 'Midsize Luxury SUV', along with AUDI Q7, BMW X5, and Porsche Cayenne, among several others. That 'limited market' has sold 391,228 units through the first ten months of 2014 in the United States of America. That's 7.5% more than were sold during the same period in 2013.

Yes, I know there are vehicles by Acura, Lexus, Infiniti, BMW, Mercede-Benz, and Porsche that have a lower starting MSRP than the Model X is expected to have.

So what?

The Porsche Cayenne Turbo starts at $113,000 -- before options are added. Something tells me that the Cayenne can be configured to a price point that will greatly exceed the maximum possible cost of a Model X. Porsche sells more of the Cayenne than any other car in their lineup.

Plzmm

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月13日

Red Sage.ca.us:

Even so, it's won't be easy reaching 100 000 sales per year for the Model X. Remember that The US is the home of SUV's. In Europe station wagons and sedans are more common.

Grinnin'.VA | 2014年11月13日

@ Red Sage.ca.us | November 13, 2014

Grinnin' Ron & Kingsthrone: There is no 'limited market' when the traditional automobile manufacturers join the fray with expensive SUVs/CUVs, so why should there be one for Tesla Motors?

And when do you expect "the traditional automobile manufacturers join the fray"? I don't see that happening until they notice their market share declining.

Stop by GoodCarBadCar to check sales statistics for North America.

That 'limited market' has sold 391,228 units through the first ten months of 2014 in the United States of America.

I looked at this site and found:

1. The top selling vehicle for Jan - Sept 2014 was Toyota Camry selling 334,978, just moderately less than what I called a "limited" market.
2. The total for passenger cars was 10,055,411, which is quite a bit larger than the market you appear to focus on.
3. The highest ranking 'performance sport' car on the list was #40 - BMW 3-series & 4-series combined. They sold 94,445.
4. The Prius was #31 with 110,455 sold.
5. Tesla MS was not shown on the list even though it should have occupied a spot somewhere around #130 on a list of 251 models with sales over 1000.

Of course, a lot of the cars buyers wouldn't consider a Tesla. However, I think that roughly half of the Prius buyers would want to consider getting an M3. I repeat my suggestion: "Performance sport" cars are a "limited" segment of potential Tesla MS, MX and M3 buyers. Consequently, Tesla can't expect to convert most of the general auto market to BEVs by making and selling the best "performance sport" cars on the market. Tesla needs to build cars that appeal to a broader market.

Go Tesla!
Ron :)

P.S. I don't know how many MS buyers got them to replace a Prius. I know that I did. Secret: I didn't get the Prius because of its 0-60 time, but in spite of it.

Red Sage ca us | 2014年11月13日

Grinnin' Ron: In the so-called 'limited' price range of Tesla Motors vehicles, multiple car companies have thrived for decades. Tesla is the only one of them that specifically intends to go down market with a future line.

Among the 'limited' offerings of those individual firms, their top-of-the-line SUV/Crossover outsells their top-of-the-line sedan by at least a 3:1 ratio. If the Tesla Model S can outsell those sedans, the Model X can hope to match their competitors' SUV-to-sedan sales ratio when matched against the Tesla Motors top-of-the-line sedan.

Once again... I am speaking of worldwide sales. 50,000 Model S per year. 150,000 Model X per year. By 2017. 40% US. 40% Asia. 20% Europe.

That's 60,000 Model X in the US per year. 5,000 delivered per month. Definitely a worthy goal that is certainly reachable. And if the US claims 60% or more of its production, that just means the wait times will be reduced significantly.

Kingsthrone: My guess is that Europeans will have to wait until the Model ≡ to see a wagon from Tesla Motors. There is a fan rendering of a stunning Model S wagon floating about the internet, though. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV and Toyota RAV4 EV certainly had their fans in Europe. I do not doubt that 15,000-30,000 if the Model X could find happy owners throughout Europe per year.

54ipr

Red Sage ca us | 2014年11月13日

Grinnin' Ron: I'll put it yet another way, since you continually state that Tesla Motors must go after a wider market...

Toyota sells around 10,000,000 vehicles per year. They have the manufacturing capacity and infrastructure and financial wherewithal to build 100,000+ Prius if they want. But they don't make one the size, shape, and style of the Camry, do they?

General Motors sells around 10,000,000 vehicles per year. They have the manufacturing capacity and infrastructure and financial wherewithal to build 25,000+ Volt if they want. But they don't make one the size, shape, and style of the Malibu, do they?

Volkswagen Group sells around 10,000,000 vehicles per year. They have the manufacturing capacity and infrastructure and financial wherewithal to build 10,000+ e-Golf if they want. But they don't make one the size, shape, and style of the Passat, do they?

Tesla Motors, if they meet all my expectations, which even Tesla Enthusiasts such as yourself claim are over-the-top optimistic, will sell in the neighborhood of 700,000 vehicles in 2020 -- worldwide. That is basically 7% of Toyota's overall capacity today, and it will take six years to grow even that large as a firm. It is not an unreachable goal. It is in fact, a very conservative goal.

But it would be positively suicidal for Tesla Motors to go after the number one selling manufacturer right now. They don't have the capacity to match Toyota in the US alone, never mind worldwide. If they were to adopt your proposed strategy, of building slow, wimpy, modest vehicles that are impossible to force beyond 200 Wh per mile in energy consumption, Tesla Motors would be out of business in less thn a year and the stock would hope to be lauded as reaching 'penny' status.

Take a look at how long it took for Hyundai to break into the top twenty in sales after their debut with the wimpy and substandard Excel. The ver first Sonata was not quite there... But from the second genertion on, it was right in the neighborhood of Camry and Accord. Today, Hyundai Sonata and Elantra are both selling well.

Tesla Motors cannot hope to take that twenty-five year long path to success.

2t3gs

Benz | 2014年11月14日

Due to SUV's being more popular than sedans ......

Delivery numbers in the coming 6 years:

2015
Tesla Model S: 60.000
Tesla Model X: 20.000

2016
Tesla Model S: 90.000
Tesla Model X: 90.000

2017
Tesla Model S: 140.000
Tesla Model X: 180.000
Tesla Model 3: 100.000

2018
Tesla Model S: 180.000
Tesla Model X: 240.000
Tesla Model 3: 300.000

2019
Tesla Model S: 220.000
Tesla Model X: 300.000
Tesla Model 3: 500.000

2020
Tesla Model S: 260.000
Tesla Model X: 360.000
Tesla Model 3: 900.000
Tesla Model ?: .......

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月14日

Sales goal and sales prediction are two different things really. Goal is what could be achiavable in a dream scenario, prediction is what is more likely to happen. Grnnin showed a few numbers that are good indicators. BMW 3 and 4 series "only" got 95 000 sales. And they are probably cheaper than the Model X will be. The prius sells 110 000 and is a much cheaper car than the Tesla Model S. So around 100 000 is where you can expect those high end cars to pan out sales wise. And that number would be a huge success. I'd guess 90 000 sales for the Model X during it's peak sale year 2017 or 2018.

Brian H | 2014年11月14日

Remember that an SUV is a passengerized truck. The MX, as an X-over, is a passenger car able to do most of the same things... so it will feed into both markets.

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月14日

Somehow the point that the price is the biggest issue for selling more than 100 000 cars a year doesn't seem to get through. Can anyone name one car which costs ~$90+ that sells over 100 000 a year, or even close to that number?

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月14日

Correction:

Ups, should have been $90k+. 90 dollars for a car would have been a bargin though.

Timo | 2014年11月14日

Near $100k Mercedes Benz models combined makes close to that number. But you are right, price of the car has to go down to make anywhere close to 200k sales annually.

Benz | 2014年11月14日

@ Kingsthrone

Those other cars have to go to petrol stations to buy petrol to fill their tanks to be able to go somewhere.

The Tesla Supercharger network is a key component for the value propesition of a Tesla EV.

Every new live Supercharger station is a kind of a lever that results into more reservations, orders, production and deliver numbers. This important factor is not yet fully considered by many people. The powerful effect of this lever becomes even more powerful as the Tesla Supercharger network becomes more and more dense as the time goes by. Meaning that when there will be 1,000+ Supercharger stations worldwide, the situation will become very different than it is today. At 2,000+ Supercharger stations worldwide even more, etc. etc.

Grinnin'.VA | 2014年11月14日

@ Red Sage.ca.us | November 13, 2014

Grinnin' Ron: I'll put it yet another way, since you continually state that Tesla Motors must go after a wider market...

I don't see other car manufacturers building BEVs for "a wider market". Do you? Tesla's stated goal is to transform the auto industry, replacing ICE cars with BEVs. As I see it, Tesla will need to step up to the plate and do a lot more of this than Elon had hoped they would need to. 500,000 new Teslas a year will not be enough.

Toyota sells around 10,000,000 vehicles per year. They have the manufacturing capacity and infrastructure and financial wherewithal to build 100,000+ Prius if they want. But they don't make one the size, shape, and style of the Camry, do they?

You really should read the sources that you recommend. 10,000,000 was total number of passenger cars sold in the U.S. in Jan-Sept 2014 by all manufacturers; Toyota only sold about 1,500,000.

Prius sales were over 110,000. So it's not news that Toyota has what it takes to sell over 100,000. My point is that the Prius offers as much of a market segment opportunity for the M3 as all of the "performance" cars combined. BTW, Toyota does indeed make hybrid versions of the Camry, Avalon and RAV4. I'd guess that quite a few of those owners would/will consider buying a Tesla. Almost all of the car manufacturers now sell hybrids. I think a well designed and positioned M3 would appeal to many of them.

If Tesla really wants to progress toward its stated goal, they will need to go after the general market of new car buyers. And most of that is NOT drag-racing enthusiasts.

Tesla Motors, if they meet all my expectations, which even Tesla Enthusiasts such as yourself claim are over-the-top optimistic, will sell in the neighborhood of 700,000 vehicles in 2020 -- worldwide.
... It is in fact, a very conservative goal.

I think you got me confused with someone else. When and where did I suggest that your projections were overly optimistic?

If they were to adopt your proposed strategy, of building slow, wimpy, modest vehicles that are impossible to force beyond 200 Wh per mile in energy consumption, Tesla Motors would be out of business ...

I never proposed this strategy. The Prius has a 0-60 time of 12.7 seconds. And you don't want Tesla to consider making a car with a 0-60 time of 6.0 seconds to compete with it!? You disdainfully denigrate such a suggestion. Why?

Tesla Motors cannot hope to take that twenty-five year long path to success.

Did I advocate any such thing? I don't think so.
BTW, as a TSLA stockholder I'm pleased that Tesla is already well on their way to becoming an established, successful and profitable company. IMO, that didn't require 25 years.

I have never suggested that Tesla quit making the "P" variant of the MS. I am saying that this segment is small and occupies far more of Tesla's attention as is warranted.

Go Tesla!
Ron :?

Red Sage ca us | 2014年11月14日

Grinnin' Ron: I was comparing the current worldwide production for each of three global traditional automobile manufacturers to the expected global output of Tesla Motors in 2020. I apologize if that was not clear. Of the roughly 85,000,000 new cars sold annually worldwide, only 15,000,000 to 16,000,000 or so are sold in the United States of America.

At 50,000 annualized capacity today, and 100,000 by this time next year, Tesla Motors does not have the capacity to match Toyota, General Motors, or Volkswagen Group in the US alone, never mind worldwide. That is a fact.

Please explain to me how making slow cars will get a relative newcomer to the automotive world to ten million worldwide sales in the next six years. Will Tesla Motors production rate increase, simply because they build slow cars? When you give test rides to Friends, Family, and Aquaintances, are they truly impressed by how slowly you drive?

The Master Plan...

You are vehemently opposed to drag racing, it seems. That's fine.

You believe Tesla Motors must immediately build the electric equivalent of a Camry. I don't.

I have told you why, but maybe you didn't notice, so I'll tell you once again. Tesla Motors has chosen to go after the BMW 3-Series with Generation III because:
It is renowned worldwide as offering the best overall balance between excellence in driving experience, sporting nature, and relative affordability.
It is at once the best selling car in its market segment, as well as the best selling car in BMW's worldwide fleet.
Tesla Motors knows they can match both its price point and worldwide manufacturing capacity almost immediately upon the release of Model ≡.
Tesla Motors is certain that they will be able to surpass all the performance aspects of the BMW 3-Series from the outset.
In other words, Tesla Motors can take down the big dog in this market segment with the resources they have available. They would only be able to do that to the Camry if they commited to sell the Model ≡ in the North America alone at this juncture. Tesla Motors operates on a global perspective, though.

The Model S was able to outsell the top-of-the-line vehicles from multiple established marques at its price point. The Model ≡ will be built to outsell those brands and more at the mid-range. With the revenue generated by that success, and a reduced cost below $100 per kWh, Tesla will be able to sell long range, inexpensive, electric cars well within the next decade.

Please don't forget that Tesla Motors' strategy involves being better than the best examples of motorcars in each market segment. Not just some of them, and not just a little better, but a lot better than all of the other cars. Otherwise, why would anyone buy them?

Yes, the Camry, Accord, Malibu, Altima, Sonata, and Optima outsell the BMW 3-Series. So what? The BMW 3-Series is still renowned as being a 'better car' in almost every way. So it commands a premium price at least $10,000 over the base models of those other cars, and is considered to be 'worth it'. The lower sales totals contribute to the unrealistic notion that the BMW 3-Series is also 'exclusive' even though it is a mass market car. So if Tesla Model ≡ can be better than the 3-Series in performance and sales, it will have effectively defeated the others as well.

About the Prius...

The Prius uses an internal combustion engine, and a 1.4 kWh battery pack. Reports vary as to whether that battery pack allows pure electric drive or not. Some say none at all. Some say there is an emergency mode that allows about one mile if you need to limp to a gas station.

110,000 x 1.4 kWh = 154,000 kWh

That's almost enough for 2,567 Model S 60.

Even if you were to somehow convince 110,000 opeople to buy the Prius PHEV, which has a ten or eleven mile electric range...

110,000 x 4.4 kWh = 484,000 kWh

Just enough to build 5,694 of the Tesla Model S 85.

C'mon, MAN!

My point? This level of extreme electric wimpiness will never be matched by a Tesla Motors product, no matter how many people can be conned into buying them. Tesla will do better, in every way. It's just a matter of time, technology, and finance. All those factors are in their favor.

cnjit

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月14日

Benz:

I look at Superchargers from another perspective. I think Superchargers are essential to not make Model X a medium/low mass production car (<100 000 units during it's lifetime). Yes, the benefits of an EV with cheaper driving is there. But there are still only so many people who can afford the car, just like with the Model S. That is also why Tesla so convincingly is aiming towards their Model 3 - so that people in general actually could afford and consider an EV. If Tesla calculated on selling hundreds of thousands of the Model S and Model X every year, they wouldn't rush into a production with the Model 3. They would also need one or two new factories with the sales numbers you are suggesting. Plus another Gigafactory.

I think new Tesla factories will come, but not until after 2021 or so.

By the way, I don't think Tesla ever will manufacture low end cars. They will stay in the price range of BMW or Volvo. I don't they they will get as big (number of cars) as GM, Ford or Toyota (are now). But they may have the among best earnings of all larger car companies in the future.

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月14日

"I don't they they.." >> "I don't think they.."

Kingsthrone | 2014年11月14日

cmcnestt:

Actually, I think you make great points. Seems like your point of view is better than mine. Hate when that happens.. well well, life is a lesson isn't it?

Grinnin'.VA | 2014年11月14日

@ Red Sage.ca.us | November 14, 2014

Of the roughly 85,000,000 new cars sold annually worldwide, only 15,000,000 to 16,000,000 or so are sold in the United States of America.

According to http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads//ranking-2013s-2.pdf, the total number of cars for 2013 was 68,661,041. Yes, 2014 numbers are higher, but I doubt they will reach 85 million.

Tesla Motors does not have the capacity to match Toyota, General Motors, or Volkswagen Group in the US alone, never mind worldwide.

True for the next few years. But I didn't need you to tell me this.

Please explain to me how making slow cars will get a relative newcomer to the automotive world to ten million worldwide sales in the next six years.

I don't recall claiming that Tesla could sell 10 million cars in the next 6 years. Actually, the highest number of cars that I have suggested Tesla might sell through 2020 is 1,345,000. Why do you ask me to explain how they could sell 10 million cars by 2020?

Will Tesla Motors production rate increase, simply because they build slow cars?

I suspect that Tesla BEVs designed for modest acceleration and longer ranges probably would help reduce the number of cells needed per battery pack. If I'm right, that would enable Tesla to sell more cars using the scarce battery resources that are projected for the next several years.

When you give test rides to Friends, Family, and Aquaintances, are they truly impressed by how slowly you drive?

No. Not a single one reacted that way. Most of them were quite impressed by the quiet ride, the elegant styling, and, yes, the unusual acceleration.

You believe Tesla Motors must immediately build the electric equivalent of a Camry. I don't.

"Must" and "immediately" aren't words I'd use in such a statement. I believe that trying to compete with Camry and a host of other cars would advance Tesla's stated goals better than focusing on building the 'best' street dragster.

Tesla Motors has chosen to go after the BMW 3-Series with Generation III because:

It is renowned worldwide as offering the best overall balance between excellence in driving experience, sporting nature, and relative affordability.

That's your opinion. I happen to disagree. (Sorry, I'm not asking for your permission to express my opinions.)

It is at once the best selling car in its market segment, as well as the best selling car in BMW's worldwide fleet.

And that market segment amounts to about 2.9% of worldwide passenger car sales according to the source I cited above.

The Model S was able to outsell the top-of-the-line vehicles from multiple established marques at its price point.

Good start. But not IMO the most effective way to achieve its stated goals going forward -- 2015 and beyond.

Tesla Motors' strategy involves being better than the best examples of motorcars ...not just a little better, but a lot better than all of the other cars. Otherwise, why would anyone buy them?

I sure as hell didn't buy an MS because its range was "a lot better than all of the other cars. I suspect you didn't either.

Yes, the Camry, Accord, Malibu, Altima, Sonata, and Optima outsell the BMW 3-Series. So what? The BMW 3-Series is still renowned as being a 'better car' in almost every way.

IMO, this is more of an opinion than a statement of "fact". I respectfully insist on my right to disagree on this.

About the Prius...

The Prius uses an internal combustion engine, and a 1.4 kWh battery pack. Reports vary as to whether that battery pack allows pure electric drive or not.

I can clear this up based on personal experience. Once I ran out of gas while driving my wife's Prius. It ran a mile or two on battery power. I coasted to the side of the road and called for help. When I had added a gallon or so of gas, I started it and drove to a gas station a few miles away.

...My point? This level of extreme electric wimpiness will never be matched by a Tesla Motors product, no matter how many people can be conned into buying them. Tesla will do better, in every way.

There you go again, insulting Prius owners! I was pleased to buy a Prius. And happy to drive it for several years. It roughly doubled my gas mileage from what I had before. In spite of its sluggish acceleration, I still consider it one of the best car purchases I ever made. I hope my experience as an MS owner is as favorable.

You dislike Prius so much that you hurl insults at Prius owners. You're welcome to your opinions and preferences. HOWEVER, you are out of line when you insist on denigrating the Prius and its owners.

Of course, I'd hope that Tesla builds cars that are 'better' tha the Prius as viewed by Prius owners. (Note: "Performance car" enthusiasts don't get a vote on this.) But this "better in every way" thing is utter nonsense. Tesla is nowhere near being able to deliver a BEV that can compete with the Prius with lower costs and higher ranges.

IMO, Toyota deserves respect for building the first successful hybrid, the Prius, about a dozen years ago. That was an important step toward proving that electric cars could be practical.

Can we please live and let live?? Hostility toward hybrids does NOT further Tesla's goals. And hostility toward Tesla owners who aren't "performance car" enthusiasts dosen't either.

Red, you can do better than this.

Ron :(

Red Sage ca us | 2014年11月14日

Grinnin' Ron: I am not a BMW fan. At all. I believe the majority of their cars have been overrated for decades. In my opinion, BMWs were downright ugly, for decades. From my observations, BMWs were rampant gas guzzlers, for decades. That is my general opinion of BMW, though it has improved somewhat in the past five years or so...

When I spoke of how the BMW 3-Series is 'renowned' worldwide, that was to illustrate:
The opinions of editors, writers, and contributors to major automotive magazines...
The opinions automotive journalists and pundits on television and radio shows...
The opinions of around 350,000 people who buy them every year worldwide..
The opinions of pretty much everyone I have observed in the past 30 years that considered themselves the functional equivalent of what was once termed a 'yuppie'...
And the opinions of my Friends and Family who have, for decades, attempted to convince me, to their grand dismay, that BBMW 3-Series vehicles were not the biggest automotive farce ever devised.
That said, other than myself, the only person I ever met who had the slightest derogatory thing to say about BMW was a German guy in my architectural office ages ago, who said, "I don't understand... In Germany, BMW is... regular $#!+ car -- like a Chevy!"

But he, you, and I are vastly outnumbered in that regard.

Because of its perceived excellence, depite evidence to the contrary, the BMW 3-Series is a valid target for Tesla Motors to acquire, and eliminate, from competition.

I believe the revenue earned from that completed mission will allow Tesla Motors to move on to a much, much, wider audience.

As for the Toyota Prius... Don't feel so touchy. I am not insulting its owners. I am insulting the bums at Toyota who gave it the green light, designed it, built it, then marketed it as an 'electric car' when it plainly is no such thing. It is a very fuel efficient, well received, economical ICE motor vehicle. An electric car, developed by Tesla Motors, for sale anywhere near its price point will be better in all possible means (except, perhaps the 600 mile range)... in my opinion.

kguhp

Grinnin'.VA | 2014年11月15日

@ Red Sage.ca.us | November 14, 2014 new

Grinnin' Ron: I am not a BMW fan. ...

Neither am I.

When I spoke of how the BMW 3-Series is 'renowned' worldwide, that was to illustrate:

The opinions of editors, writers, and contributors to major automotive magazines...

etc. Yes, the opinions of a few million people.
And many more millions of people hold other, conflicting opinions.

... the BMW 3-Series is a valid target for Tesla Motors to acquire, and eliminate, from competition.

IMO, Tesla is targeting BMW for one and only one reason: Elon is a "performance car" enthusiast. I think Tesla is missing a larger target that is easier to compete against, which I think is a mistake.

With the P85D Tesla is poised to take the top spot for street drag racers. All they need to do is make a few thousand of them and keep them running. That game is over. Tesla won it. IMO, now it's time for Tesla to get on with establishing itself as a mainline auto manufacturer, competing in a broader market.

As for the Toyota Prius... I am not insulting its owners. I am insulting the bums at Toyota ... It is a very fuel efficient, well received, economical ICE motor vehicle. An electric car, developed by Tesla Motors, for sale anywhere near its price point will be better in all possible means (except, perhaps the 600 mile range)... in my opinion.

Good to hear that your insult wasn't intended as personal.
I disagree emphatically with your insult directed at Toyota related to the Prius. Keep in mind when Toyota developed the Prius. It was over a decade ago. At that time, the battery technology needed for a decent, general-purpose BEV didn't yet exist. You recognize that they did a pretty good job with the Prius. Why do you insult Toyota for this? Of course, they keep making them because they sell well and they are popular. That, IMO, is not a legitimate reason to insult Toyota.

I suspect that your beef with Toyota is that they aren't making BEVs now. Well, I'm not pleased by that either. But that complaint applies to all of the other major auto manufacturers as well. IMO, insulting people who fail to do what you want them to do is a poor way of 'winning friends and influencing people'. So why do you insult other auto manufacturers?

Go Tesla!
Ron :)

Red Sage ca us | 2014年11月16日

Grinnin' Ron wrote, "I think Tesla is missing a larger target that is easier to compete against, which I think is a mistake."

"Man, that's all you had to say!" -- Samuel L Jackson as Jules, 'Pulp Fiction' (1994)

Now to reiterate my own points: Tesla Motors does not have, and will not have, the capacity to strike the target you want them to aim at anytime soon. It isn't as easy as you think. Many have tried, and failed, even when they had much more financial backing than Tesla Motors.

If Tesla Motors is not able to establish an identity for themselves that sets them firmly apart from traditional automobile manufacturers, they will not survive long enough to make the attempt.

Tesla Motors is constantly moving toward a 'wider market'. They are doing so in a measured, controlled, strategic fashion.
They went from moving 2,500 cars over three years with the Tesla Roadster...
To delivering around 25,000 cars in the first 18 months of Model S production.
I believe that by 2017 they will be selling in the neighborhood of 200,000 Model S and Model X.
They will grow from there to sell 500,000 per year of the Model ≡ by 2020.
Each market, or buying audience, is wider than the one before.
The Model ≡ will usher in the ability to grow to 5,000,000 vehicles per year by 2025.
Every time a new manufacturer has tried too early to jump into the deep end, where the majority of competitors reside, among low end vehicles, it has resulted in either abject failure (Yugo, Daihatsu, Daewoo) or long delayed success (Hyundai, Kia). Advertising didn't help. Dealership networks didn't help. Having products that were almost as good, about as good, or a little bit better didn't help.

Tesla Motors has devised a strategy that will avoid those foibles, and many more. It is in many ways a historically proven strategy. I understand you don't agree with it. That doesn't mean it won't work.

"So why do you insult other auto manufacturers?"

Turnabout is fair play. They have insulted me for decades. I am returning the favor.

gsaqp

bryan.whitton | 2014年11月16日

@Grinnin and @Red Sage Actually as I read your comments you are probably both right to some degree. I think that with Tesla going after the BMW 300 series they are going to hit a large portion of the Toyota Camry market as well. Along with the Honda Accord market, the Ford midsize market and the Chevy midsize market to boot.
If they can come in at $35K for the base model and keep the SC access and the traditional low cost of operation even at a higher initial price they will take significant market share from lower cost midsize cars.
The total cost of operation will win out with savvy customers. So over some number of years the Tesla will be cheaper even if the initial cost of entry is higher. It would certainly sway me, but I always look to the overall price with any purchase.
Just my view, however I can't afford a Model S so who am I? :-)

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