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Model S Reservation Tally

Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

cgiGuy | 2013年2月27日

Carefree- Yep.. just got an email after the countersign was complete and at the bottom it now shows "Model S #19,542 RN328601"

Not sure if this helps any with the overall tracking.

I'm in Texas by the way.

Brian

Carefree | 2013年2月27日

Thanks bkc - that does indeed help. Good to know that they still issue sequence numbers.

tylerhen | 2013年2月27日

bkc - where did you find the sequence number?

I know I have seen mine in the past, was in the 19,000 range but can't find it anywhere now. I finalized 2/19, so I was just curious how many other people finalized in the 7 days between us. Would be a max of 542 since I was at least 19,000.

cgiGuy | 2013年2月27日

Very small grey text at the bottom of the "Your Model S paperwork is complete‏" email. It doesn't show up anywhere on My Dashboard.

nickjhowe | 2013年2月27日

Finally! A new res #. Thanks bkc.

nickjhowe | 2013年2月27日

I'll let Brian H and michiganmodels run the proper numbers, but it looks like 33 North America res per day since Feb 8 - 12,000 per year.

Hills | 2013年2月27日

It is great that we finally got a res #, but the Feb announcement of Dec results taught is that most people who cancel don't tell us on the forum.

tylerhen | 2013年2月27日

They must have changed the mailer in the last week then because I don't have it in the e-mail or the paperwork attached. I am pretty sure it did list it on the MyTesla section of the website but they got rid of that in the past week as well.

sethvandermeer | 2013年2月27日

In Europe, got RN327598, sequence number 2853 on feb 20. Got an unofficial confirmation I will get my MS 85kw before January.

sandman | 2013年2月27日

looks like they are eliminating the ability to track reservation rates. I always wondered why they let us track this information.

Brian H | 2013年2月27日

The RN is not useful or meaningful if you're wetware, not hardware. Computer tracking randomized, apparently.

Sandman;
It was supposed to represent the sequence of order processing and fulfillment. In practice it seems to come after batching of just about any kind in priority, though.

negarholger | 2013年2月27日

Sandman - reservations are only good as long as you don't make cars. With MS in production it is obsolete. For MS process will be : design car on line, place order & down payment, receive car. What will now be the key is order sequence, but I don't think TM will make that available, you will just get a delivery window.

sandman | 2013年2月27日

Yep, I agree that the res # means nothing from a "when am I going to get my car" perspective. Just want to make sure I understand because I think Tesla made this change because they don't want people to have visibility into the order/res rate.

For example, if I know that as of Feb 1, that the reservation number was 19,000. Then I find that at the end of Feb the reservation number is 20,500. Doesn't that tell me that the number of reservations made was 1500 in Feb. Knowing that Tesla has changed the process to speed up conversion from reservation to firm order, can't we assume that Tesla received 1400-1500 orders in Feb? If I know that and I know the average unit price($72k-ish) for an S, then can't I estimate the gross orders entered for the month and also the book-to-bill ratio(assume 400 cars/week). 1600 produced for Feb. Book-to-bill below 1.0(i.e. 1500/1600).

If above is correct, isn't the sequenced res # very sensitive information that Tesla shouldn't be and shouldn't have been publishing. Thanks in advance.

Hills | 2013年2月27日

Yes, even if you know gross orders, but we still don't know cancellations, which means we don't know net orders. The larger than expected cancellations for Dec quarter and March quarter was one of the reasons for the stock to go down.

jeroens | 2013年2月27日

@ sandman: +1

Maybe this thread should be private?

Brian H | 2013年2月27日

sandman;
TM never published the info, but did issue #s to reservers - with the warning no production position was assured or promised. They then blabbed, and big ears listened (here and at TMC). TM employees confessed that the resulting guesses and graphs were pretty accurate. But things happened, and P1 got his car after P1000.

As for production, Elon said that knowing VINs would give the curious pretty decent access to that count, but that TM would not be providing them openly to the press, etc.

Brian H | 2013年2月27日

As for "sales", remember that TM books them only on COD.

Elon stated they could run all this year with no stores (but that leaves online orders, of course).

nickjhowe | 2013年2月27日

@Brian H - I think he was suggesting that there's enough momentum in the reservations to carry them over the 20k mark for CY13.

gregv64 | 2013年2月27日

@Hills: Given that you finalize as soon as you reserve now, why would there be any cancellations? If you aren't ready to finalize, there's absolutely no point in reserving. Once you finalize, you can't cancel (or at least not without losing your $5000). There should be no cancellations going forward.

Chuck Lusin | 2013年2月28日

Any new numbers today?, bump!

kenliles | 2013年2月28日

they don't get posted too often for reasons discussed, but when they do, shows sales are holding up pretty well during this typically low sell cycle part of year.

Brian H | 2013年2月28日

Haven't heard a peep from Michigan Model S. In another week, I will perhaps attempt a duplicate of his chart, though I don't have full access to his data. Or maybe not. We'll see. Car mms, where are you?

PatL | 2013年2月28日

I just got a "schedule delivery" email this week(2/26/13). Reservation # 17,470 made on 12/31/12. Paperwork completed on 2/12/13. Estimated delivery Mar. 15th - Mar. 29th

Grey MS Performance, black interior, carbon fiber, 21" grey wheels, tech package, sound system, pan roof,(no spoiler)

PatL | 2013年2月28日

....and my RN is US Model S RN323894

Brian H | 2013年2月28日

RN is irrelevant, except to some computer somewhere.

Hills | 2013年2月28日

@Brain H,
Please explain in detail why RN is irrelevant, too many newcomers on this forum.

Vawlkus | 2013年3月1日

Read page #74. It was discussed there again.

Brian H | 2013年3月1日

Hills;
Brian. Not Brain. And the RN is a computer account number, not assigned sequentially, so conveys no information.

DTsea | 2013年3月1日

I don't know Brian H you always have good stuff to say, so Brain is kind of apropos.

Brian H | 2013年3月2日

Sounds egotistical to answer to it, though.

jkirkebo | 2013年3月4日

EU P2923 reported in Norway today.

Brian H | 2013年3月4日

Well, if that reservation in Norway was made today, then since February 5, 27 days ago, there have only been 2923-2886=37 reservations, about 1.4 a day. Very slow.

sethvandermeer | 2013年3月4日

Brian H: I got 2853 on feb 20, so I guess it could also be 2923-2853=70 in 12 days. so 6 a day.

GeirT | 2013年3月4日

I was 2145 on 27th December so with 2923 today that means 778 reservations; with 70 days that means 11 cars/day.

jkirkebo | 2013年3月4日

The reservation was made Feb.28th, and the reservation number was received today.

GoTeslaChicago | 2013年3月4日

If you go back, you will see that 2886 was an outlier. Probably a typo, 2786 would have been more likely for that date.

Brian H | 2013年3月4日

The actual reservation was on 2/28, so that's different. I was taking March 4.

Mliss | 2013年3月4日

I think the main point is that regardless of whether it is 1.4/day, 6/day, or 11/day, this thread used to provide an updated count every week or so. It has now been almost a month since the last real update. I think that the observation that there has been a significant slow down is un-deniable. Even at 11/day, production is outpacing orders. I would point to a recent post on the delivery thread in which a poster claims to have placed a reservation in January and already receive his/her vehicle.

Works out ok for me (#16,635, VIN 6672), delivery window 3/11-3/25 - I had expected to wait at least a year. But I do worry a bit about slow down in orders.

GeirT | 2013年3月5日

@Mliss

Wish you are right. I'd love to have my car during summer and not Q4 as originally indicated.

Docrob | 2013年3月5日

I don't think there has been a significant true slow down in orders. I think that many of the orders that would have been made in jan, feb, mar and april were pulled forward by the dec 31 price increase artificially inflating december's numbers and artificially deflating 2013 orders.

Nicu.Mihalache | 2013年3月5日

@Miss

Just to be sure you are aware that those ~11/day are in Europe. They add to ~35/day in the US (including week-ends). Then again, together they are still below production. But as Docrob says, they had about 6000 reservations during the last quarter (some customers pulled the trigger because of the price increase). And Tesla claims that sales go viral, they increase in regions where they deliver. As things are evolving, I think there will be 25k-30k deliveries this year.

Brian H | 2013年3月5日

Nicu;
+1

That sounds exactly right. Actually, Elon's statement that TM will be both cash positive and profitable (even if only marginally) every quarter in '13 implies as much.

Owners who are "over the moon" 100 or 10,000 miles after purchase are an unstoppable sales force.

Andre-nl | 2013年3月6日

It looks like the Reservation sequence number is still there as a hidden input. Look at the responses from 'bkc' in this thread: http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/what-does-p-stand-and-why-it-dis...

Seems there is another data point: 19,542. The exact reservation date wasn't mentioned.

mollmason | 2013年3月6日

#19565 Signed all paperwork on 2/28

Hit reserve button on 2/27

Loaded - 85kw

Captain_Zap | 2013年3月6日

Congrats and welcome.

Andre-nl | 2013年3月7日

Ok then, that works out to a US daily reservation rate of ~31/day over the month of February.

19565 (Feb 27) - 18,974 (Feb 8) = 591 / 29 = 31.1

Cattledog | 2013年3月7日

Andre - 591/19

cgiGuy | 2013年3月7日

Seems there is another data point: 19,542. The exact reservation date wasn't mentioned.

Finalized 27 Feb 2013.

vgrinshpun | 2013年3月8日

From the 10-K form published yesterday (page 36)

"As of December 31, 2012, we had $138.8 million in reservation payments, primarily for Model S and Model X.."

138.8M / 5K = 27,760 reservations as of 12-31-2012. The letter to shareholders, published in February, mentioned 16,000 reservations for MS. The difference between the two reservation totals above indicates that Model X reservations stood at 11,760 - an improbably high number. Any thoughts or competing interpretations?

alfafoxtrot1 | 2013年3月8日

Vgrinshpun - you're not accounting for the $40k price tag for signature reservations.

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