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Tracking highest VINs

Tracking highest VINs

This thread is for tracking the actual highest VIN-number. Actually I found a VIN 9903 at TeslaMotorClub.
When do we see the 10.000?

tobi_ger | 2013年7月1日

Maybe not all new VIN owners visit the forums?

sharpe222 | 2013年7月1日

Hi all -16218 ordered and confirmed last Thursday

AmpedRealtor | 2013年7月1日

I confirmed last Thursday at # 16,186. The first Model S rolled out around 6/22/12 and my order was confirmed on 6/28/13, so that's a year plus a week. So it would appear that Model S sold toughly 16,000 units in the first year of production. Is this in line with Tesla's expectations?

tobi_ger | 2013年7月1日

Elon projected 20K+ cars for 2013, maybe more.

Benz | 2013年7月1日

In 2012: 2,650 Tesla Model S's for customers.
In Q1 2013: 4,900 Tesla Model S's for customers.
Total = 7,550 Tesla Model S's for customers (up to Q1 2013).

In Q2 2013 certainly not more than 5,450 Tesla Model S's for customers.

So, in total not more than 13,000 Tesla Model S's for customers (up to Q2 2013).

How many Tesla Model S's would they have produced for company use? 500? Who knows?

But it certainly does not add up to 16,000 Tesla Model S's.

AmpedRealtor | 2013年7月1日

According to this article (http://seekingalpha.com/article/978871-time-to-buy-tesla-beats-model-s-d...), Tesla delivered between 2,500 and 3,000 Model S vehicles in all of 2012. Shipments began on 6/22/12, so roughly 3,000 in six months if we give Tesla the high end of the expected range. Based on my VIN # 16,186 towards the end of June, it would appear Tesla has sold approximately 13,000 vehicles in the first six months of 2013.

So looking at the numbers, Tesla has gone from producing 500 Model S vehicles per month in 2012 to making over 2,100 Model S vehicles per month so far in 2013. That is a factor of 4x increase in production. They seem to be scaling up very quickly.

Do these numbers make sense? And if true, it would seem that Tesla is well on track to deliver at least the 20,000 vehicles that Elon promised for 2013, if not more. That's presuming orders keep up and Tesla can keep up with demand and quality control.

Benz | 2013年7月1日

Tesla Motors will surely deliver 21,000 Tesla Model S's to customers in 2013, no doubt about it.

In 2012: 2,650 Tesla Model S's for customers.
In Q1 2013: 4,900 Tesla Model S's for customers.
Total = 7,550 Tesla Model S's for customers (up to Q1 2013).

These are facts, because these figures have been released by Tesla Motors at their Earnings Calls of Q4 2012 and Q1 2013. And now we just have to wait for the Earnings Call of Q2 2013 on July 22nd, 2013. Then we will know for sure.

tobi_ger | 2013年7月1日

AmpedRealtor:
A VIN number does not mean it is in production, much less sold (out-of-order, batch production). There are probably many EU cars within the 16K VIN range as well, which may not have started production yet. Therefore the total production number is less than the last known VIN#.

sia | 2013年7月1日

I think Tesla only includes models that are delivered to customers for their quarterly results, so the actual Q1+Q2 number may be less than 13,000.

Doing a very crude extrapolation from my VIN number #11239, delivered 5/31, I come up with ~ 5500 deliveries in Q2.

emoflash | 2013年7月1日

AmpedRealtor,

The sales rep told me they were currently producing 450 cars per week so your math is pretty close.

Benz | 2013年7月1日

@ sia

A total number for delivered Tesla Model S's in Q2 2013 is very likely to be between 5,000 and 5,500. Therefore, your estimate is likely as well. The more the better, of course.

Benz | 2013年7月1日

@ sia

2012 + Q1 and Q2 2013 = 13,000 (at the most).
But still, more would be better although it is not very likely to happen.

sia | 2013年7月1日

@Benz: “more would be better”.

Agreed!

CalDreamin | 2013年7月1日

I finalized my order on 6/11, and took delivery of VIN 14564 on Friday 6/28.

sharpe222 finalized on 6/27 with a VIN of 16218.

That's an increase of 1654 VIN numbers in 16 days. If that 16 day pace was sustained for a full a year, over 37,000 Model S cars would be sold annually.

Benz | 2013年7月1日

All is possible, and nothing is impossible. But I prefer to remain realistic. Let's just wait for the Q2 2013 Earnings Call on July 22nd, 2013. Fair enough?

CalDreamin | 2013年7月1日

sia took delivery of VIN 11239 on 5/31.
I took delivery of VIN 14564 on 6/28.

That's a 3325 VIN number increase in just 28 days.

Benz | 2013年7月1日

@ CalDreamin

My dear friend, it all has got to do with planning of the production of the Tesla Model S's at the Tesla factory in Fremont.

Production of Tesla Model S's with similar options (colour, pano roof, etc.) are joined in a certain batch (as much as possible). This is done to achieve some efficiency in the production process (among other reasons).

It's not as straight forward as you might think.

It's very likely that some of the Tesla Model S's with a certain combination of options (which combination of options is not often chosen by customers) still have to be produced.

But still, you could be right about the delivery of 3,325 Tesla Model S's inbetween May 31st and June 28th. And actually I hope that you are right (as more deliveries is better for Tesla Motors).

Mathew98 | 2013年7月1日

I just spoke with the service manager in Queens, NY during a recall service. There was a mad dash to deliver tons of MS this past weekend to make the end of quarter quota. The highest VIN# they delivered was in the low 13xxx.

If @CalDreamin took delivery of his car within 2 weeks with VIN #14564, then he must have lucked out and stole one from the batch of top of the line P85+ destined for loaners.

I was told that the loaners are flying off the shelf for purchases (avoiding wait time of 4-6 weeks).

BTW, Queens service center is down to one loaner after they were force to part ways with one of them and send it to Long Island center.

CalDreamin | 2013年7月1日

@ Benz, agreed, you make good points.

I took the Tesla Fremont factory tour on 6/28, and there were cars with all different colors moving together along the production line. I assume there are some options that get batched together on the production line, but apparently color isn't one of them.

Since I had a factory delivery, I had no transportation delay. So I probably received my MS before some others with lower VIN numbers will receive their MS.

I've wondered why my order went so fast - just 17 days from finalizing my order to delivery. Maybe I got moved up in the queue because I agreed to do a factory delivery? No idea, just a guess.

Mathew98 | 2013年7月1日

@Benz - Seems like your estimate is the closest to what the service manager confirmed in NYC...

Then there's the mystery number (500?) headed for EU that doesn't count as Q2 deliveries.

CalDreamin | 2013年7月1日

@ Mathew
I didn't get a P85+, I got a S85.

Bubba2000 | 2013年7月1日

I ordered a 85P/pano/white/grey loaded on 6-18 and sent to the factory straight. Got the VIN 15588 next day. Delivery schedule is now 7-21 to 8-24 to SEeast. I was told that there was no inventory for quick delivery before the quarter ended. Looks like there is a lot of demand.

Mathew98 | 2013年7月1日

@CalDreamin - Congrats on getting your S85 in 17 days. It must be some record pace. I considered myself lucky for getting mine in 5 weeks.

I think 4-5 weeks from order to delivery is pretty standard now a day given their more streamlined production.

Let's not upset other owners who waiting months/years to get their toys...

negarholger | 2013年7月1日

...to get their toys...
The MS has become the main driver and the putt-putt is now the toy.

David70 | 2013年7月1日

Can you call it a toy if it's no fun?

cwmenne | 2013年7月1日

@CalDreamin, I am very jealous, I also finalized my order on June 11th, s/n 14545 and my delivery window is July 16-30th. It is an S60 with most options. My s/n is lower than yours, but could come up to a month later!

negarholger | 2013年7月1日

That is true... no fun any more - just like riding a subborn horse at the time of the civial war.

negarholger | 2013年7月1日

stubborn horse... Before Brian catches me.

hugo | 2013年7月2日

I now have my VIN no: 14910 to be delivered in Norway around Aug 1 after more than 2.5 years of waiting....Sig Perf Plus with "everything"

tes-s | 2013年7月2日

16399

Brian H | 2013年7月2日

Kleist;
civial war - Civil War
;p

Benz | 2013年7月2日

@ Mathew@ngc98.com

Those 500 Tesla Model S's for Europe have not been manufactured in June, they will be manufactured in early July, and therefore they will be counted as Q3 2013 (European) deliveries. And later in Q3 2013 many more Tesla Model S's will will be shipped to Europe as well.

Benz | 2013年7月2日

Bump

Sailor | 2013年7月2日

Got mine today.
#16439 to be delivered in August...wooohooo

bobobrit | 2013年7月2日

#16404 to be delivered in Houston 8/4 to 8/18

negarholger | 2013年7月2日

Brian - you are having a feast... 3 in one expression.

Thrak | 2013年7月2日

Mine is 16121, should be delivered July 30 to August 13. Spent most of Sunday cleaning up and making room in the garage.

My wife said I was nesting...

emoflash | 2013年7月2日

Mine delivers between July 26-August 9. My wife has been giving me a hard time because I have been spending so much time in the garage preparing.

cfOH | 2013年7月2日

I'm going to create a graph (hey, it's what I do), so PLEASE post the date you confirmed your order (i.e., it was "sent to production") along with your VIN. Thanks.

addixion | 2013年7月2日

VIN 16436, confirmed 7/2/13.

cfOH | 2013年7月2日

OK, for the 47-day period 5/16 - 7/2 (order confirmation dates), Tesla issued about 3,800 VINs, or ~564 VINs per week. Extrapolating, that's ~7,300 per quarter, or 29,200 cars per year.

Thrak | 2013年7月2日

Right, so my vin 16121 entered production June 26.

Benz | 2013年7月3日

Highest: VIN#16439 (Sailor)

Benz | 2013年7月3日

Another post with a (higher) VIN number would be nice. Keep them coming.

lolachampcar | 2013年7月3日

14694 scheduled for East Coast delivery the 20th

Benz | 2013年7月3日

bump

SevenOfNine | 2013年7月3日

16448. Finalized yesterday. Delivery in late July.

ltowens | 2013年7月3日

16159, Gray P85, first week of August

Mathew98 | 2013年7月3日

@SevenOfNine - Another Trekkie?

cfOH | 2013年7月3日

So here's a grab of the quick and dirty spreadsheet I ginned up:

The bold numbers at the bottom give the best estimate of ~30,000 cars per year, based on the past 7 weeks or so.

Now, we would HOPE that Tesla is gradually increasing that rate, so the linear regression line used to estimate the rate will eventually be a poor fit, but for any short period (e.g., the past two months), it should be fine since I doubt Tesla is going to be significantly accelerating production in such a short window. Could happen, I suppose, but I'll let the data tell me when that might be happening.

Disclaimer: These data are merely for entertainment purposes; no pixels were harmed in the making of this chart.

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