A very nice article about the future prospects of Tesla Motors. It's really worth reading it.

A very nice article about the future prospects of Tesla Motors. It's really worth reading it.

FLsportscarenth... | 2013年5月5日

Interesting... Thanks for posting.

I think production will be in the 200,000 range by 2020. TSLA will not likely be like Microsoft, but will likely be as good an investment as XOM (my biggest holding for the last 10 years or so and best performer). If I made money like I did back in the good old days of 2006 (yup despite what the idiots in Washington say the recession is not over yet - well educated professionals are still making half what they did 8 years ago) you could be sure I would have been buying a lot of TSLA in dec - jan...

Teslation | 2013年5月5日

Great article Benz, I really enjoyed reading it. Very creative future analysis.


Congrats on Exxon investment. Looks like you got a 1 bagger heading toward a 2 bagger.

(Bagger refers to how many times a stock multiplies itself, see link)

As for Tesla, even at 200,000 vehicles a year, I think Tesla stock will still be a 4 bagger (TSLA=$200/share). Also I read somewhGere Elon has stock bonuses that payoff at $150/Share.

FLsportscarenth... | 2013年5月5日

XOM will be a plastic bagger and TSLA will be a paper bagger then hehe

I am expecting that things will get better in years ahead, and will be able to start investing again, hope that TSLA will still have a lot of upside then. Am keeping XOM (nearly 4x since 2000) for now, I am a buy and hold kind of guy not a trader...

Tesla is a remarkable company and will do well in the long run, even if they just double the number of cars sold by 2020 due to continued sluggish but stable economy it will be an achievement. If things go really bad and oil soars then both XOM and TSLA will bag quite a bit... Early 1970's come again and you can laugh at the SUVs in the gas lines as you drive by them in you Model S....

Teslation | 2013年5月5日

Between TSLA & XOM I'd say you a hybid plastic lined paper bagger. Lol.

Teslation | 2013年5月5日

I have to proof read more, that should read :

Between TSLA and XOM it looks like you have a" hybrid, " plastic lined, paper bagger.

beachbloch | 2013年5月6日

Hey Benz,

Quick Question: Are you upset that TELSA has pinned itself to your car, which I'm going to go ahead and assume is a, well, Benz? I mean I guess I'd be pissed too if I realized I just wasted a ton of money on old technology.... You seem a little over zealous in your attempts to discredit TELSA motors and Elon Musk.... Which make me think that you're just jealous. Or a sponsored source of subversive forum topic discussion....

I mean who has a benz but has the time to be little a start up that is trying to do something good for the word?

Hmmmmm... Big Oil.... Traditional Car Company's.... It's like TELSA vs Edison all over again.... ELON!!! BE CAREFUL! Don't Underestimate the political power of corporate America.... They will drive you mad through subversive ads and campaigns and try and get under your skin.... Telsa was portrayed as a madman and his "links" to WWI as an Eastern European and the problem was that these companies and ad agencies won... Today we would be a much different place if big money did not win.

BENZ... Who are you? What kind of car do you own? Who do you work for?

My name is Brian Loch... I own a ford focus... I work for no one. Because I AM independent. Let's do business.... Not work against the future for false interests consumed with profits.

Brian H | 2013年5月6日

Mr. Loch;
I fear you have leapt to a bogus conclusion about Benz. He is a kind of neophyte Euro-Tesla-enthusiast, with wide speculative tendendencies. Sometimes painfully uninformed, sometimes interesting and informative, but never anti-Elon!

Benz | 2013年5月6日

I agree that I was very much uninformed a few months ago (first I only heard something about Tesla Motors in a radio programme). And therefore I did have my doubts about the future of Tesla Motors, it all just seemed to be too good to be true. And therefore I did loose my interest for a few weeks. But in the mean time I have read a number of things, and I have learned a number of things. And I still decided to spend more time and focus in finding out more about Tesla Motors. And then I learned more about Elon Musk, SpaceX, Solar City, Superchargers, electric jets, Hyperloop etc. Then I went mad (at least my wife says so). I just got addicted. I think I need to go to a docter someday. But I am sure that I am not the only one on this planet who is addicted.

I am convinced that the world is gradually going to be electric. First the pace will be slowly but surely (in this decade). But in the next decade things are going to change very fast.


mmorgen85 | 2013年7月18日

Great article... it's apparent that Tesla is well positioned in the electric car market and the investment upside will continue to grow as the developing world moves further away from traditional gasoline powered engines and embraces alternative energy.

My company also recently published an article on Tesla that I think will be of interest to this forum.

Brian H | 2013年7月18日

Full of misinformation and misconceptions. As for a major easily producing a competitive product at the $45K price point, I'll believe it when I see it. So far, no sign of that. The MS wipes the floor with every model it competes against.

Bubba2000 | 2013年7月18日

Tesla has the components needs to succeed and disrupt the mid to hi end auto market:
1. Award winning Model S, including the top award from Consumer Reports. Model X design seems to be just as good. They have range, and necessary features. Over time these models will add features like smart cruise control, collision avoidance, park assist, weight reduction, etc. Interior will be refined. The overall design will be improved to facilitate mass automated production.

Innovative factory design - that is getting more automated with time. Look at the extra robots in the final assembly. I expect them to add material handling robots to handle the stampings. With improved design, plant efficient can only increase. Supply chain costs will fall. I think that even without disruptive battery tech, the manufacturing cost will come down significantly. I think that cost the final product will fall by 40%.

3. The supercharger network will drive demand, by eliminating range anxiety. Install 300 SCs in US/Canada, 100 in EU and 100 in Eastern China at a cost of less than $100M and demand will explode. Especially if prices of Model S, X with 85KW-hr battery fall to $60-75k depending on options. Less for the 60 KW-hr models. With the price of gasoline going up, especially in the Europe and Asia, these cars become compelling. In many places ICE autos have 100% tax, none for BEVs.

If Tesla does it right, they could sell 250,000 to 500,000 Model S+X worldwide with 25% gross margins. Now it depends on their ability to execute. I think Elon has what it takes to make this company a 10 bagger from here. He is not some bean counter in Detroit. Competition? Another golf car by Nissan, Ford or BMW? Or GM hybrid like the Volt?

ian | 2013年7月19日

+1 Brian H. So many innacuracies in this article it's sad.

Bubba2000 | 2013年7月21日

Any opinions on this article? It claims that the battery cost is falling steeply. Would have huge impact on Tesla profits and sales.