Will there be a X70D
If so it will be an All-Wheel Drive
Wat about the range?
And what will be the next model X85D or X95D?
A better question is will there be a model x.
The best estimate of 65 mph range of the Model X is via a recent quote from Elon: 240 miles with an 85kwh battery pack. That would give it about 170 miles with 60 kWh, a non-starter. With 70 kwh it bumps up to 200, barely acceptable. I think they added about 836 18650 cells to the 60kwh pack to get to 70 for the MX and decided to put the same pack in the MS as the new low end and MD the 60 kWh pack.
I find it hard to believe they would release a Model X with a smaller battery than the currently available Model S.. so 70 would be the minimum imo.
I suspect there will be 3 flavors of the X. 70D, 85D and a P85D.
@jordanrichard: I think your suspicion is spot on for the 2015 offerings. Range will be an ongoing issue with the X, especially for those wishing to drag trailers around or somehow stick stuff on the roof.
The only way for Tesla to deal with that will be battery cell enhancements via the Gigafactory, I believe. Maybe late 2016 they will add a premium 100-110 kWh pack to the mix. They will need the technology to boost the range performance of the smaller Model ≡ anyway. Assuming they succeed in rolling out higher capacity cells at substantially lower cost, they may continue to offer 85 kWh and 70 kwh packs that are lighter (30% fewer cells for example) and lower cost, passing some of the savings to the consumer through price adjustments. Anyway, it is fun to guess in the absence of facts. :-))
The towing ability of the X may be enough to warrant a large battery pack as an option, i.e. > 85kwh
It seems obvious that 70 is needed to make MX work so preimplemented on MS.
I wouldn't be surprised if the 70D is utilizing next-gen batteries. Why would you announce/release a 70kWh pack unless you had a new design? That is, it makes no sense to me to come up with a new pack design if next-gen batteries are coming around the corner.
If so, I also wouldn't be surprised if they will announce a 100D before Q3. If so, then the Model-X will probably come out with a 100kWh pack too.
70 and 85 i think. 70 will get MX to 200 miles and thats the promise.
@Dan: adding cells to the 60kwh is duck soup because the space was underutilized. No need for a better cell.
@georgehawley, I don't think its as simply as sliding a few more cells in (making sure you put them in the right orientation). There must be sub-units made up of cells in series, and those are put in parallel with each other. I would think that the whole layout process takes some "design" work.
If new cells are in the pipeline, why make these calculations twice?
Also, 70kWh and 85kWh packs are too close in size. I would expect that 85kWh pack to be replaced too at some point in the future (maybe when they run out of the old cells).
This is all speculation...nothing else to do while waiting for my Model-X.
@Dan: I don't think there will be any "new" cells from Panasonic in time for the X. If there were, wouldn't there be a complete changeover with the 85kwh pack jumping to 100kwh at the same time as the 60 jumps to 70? Otherwise, Tesla is juggling double inventory of cells. Not impossible but not in accord with Elon's pronouncements for whatever that's worth,
@georgehawley, I like your way of thinking. I do think there will be a complete change-over, once they exhaust all remaining cell inventory and have finished re-designing the new 100kWh pack. From my understanding they have gone through multiple revisions of the pack already, so I don't think this would be out-of-character for Tesla. They seem to keep their battery solutions under wraps and never publicize the detailed technical specifications.
If they don't announce a new pack before end of May, then I'll admit my prediction was wrong (I've put an entry in my calendar).
I am very curious what the range of a Model-S 100D would be!
While I certainly hope you're correct Dan, I have a feeling George is more righterer (that's for you Brian!).
My worst fear is that they'll debut the X with an 85 pack then 6 months later release a 100+ version. D'oh!
Protect yourself by cancelling until you hear a believable rumor.
The answer regarding larger packs is simple - enhance the current 85kWh pack and make a P90X!
But seriously, I expect the eventual lineup to be 70D, 85D, and P100D. Whether that happens at launch or not until next year remains to be seen.
OK. Good idea Brian.
ian t.wa.us -- Your "worst fear" is guaranteed to be realized. Every Tesla ever built has been obsolete in comparison to newer options 6 months later. It's the nature of the beast when you are an early adopter buying products from a company that is moving as aggressively as Tesla. I have several friends that paid 125000 plus last summer for a P85. They have no AWD, no insane mode, no autopilot, no deluxe seats, etc. They have owned there cars well under a year.
700 hp and autonomous driving would be good for awhile...then T will introduce some 125 kWh fast charging battery tech and then there will be more gnashing of teeth.
Oh, and don't forget the inevitable styling update and of course 999 hp...Truly autonomous driving might require even more sensors and such and will require the new model. Then Superconductive 1500hp motors that have a range of 478 miles...The printed carbon fiber body will help too. Heck, Tesla will print you out a new one if you want.
And color choices are obsolete at the electric paint changes to whatever color you want.
You will never be safe....
Heard the one about electro-levitation in the works?
@scotttilson - I've been here long enough to see how quickly new features have come along. I'll see what Tesla offers with the X before making a buying decision for sure. At this point though, I really can't think of any features likely to be offered in the near future that I would want (or pitch a fit over missing out on) other than a bit longer range to offset the fact that I plan to travel long distances with a bunch of bicycles hanging off the back on a hitch mount bike rack.
OK, maybe also some air cooled seats but I think I can probably live without them. ;-)
Tesla option 5k for 105 kWh on MX. 10k for the 115 kWh MX. By Jan 2016
Surely the X will be more slippery, relatively speaking, than the S- after all, they've had about 5 more years to redesign for better air flow, so that should increase range to help offset some of the extra weight.
Yes @Blueskies, the coefficient of Drag for the Model-X should be lower than the Model-S. However, because it'll have a greater frontal surface area, the total friction (friction = surface area x drag coefficient) will still probably be higher than the Model-S.
Form follows function. Higher, yes. More air friction, yes. But I won't have to be a contortionist to get in and out as I do with the S. Only 5% heavier which deducts maybe 2-3% from range. Around town at slower speeds the X85 will get almost the same WH/mile efficiency as the S85D. On the highway, not so much.
On April 9th, 2015, I wrote,
If they don't announce a new pack before end of May, then I'll admit my prediction was wrong
Surprisingly (to me at least), I was wrong. Since that prediction, I've learned that the 70D is likely using the same batteries as the 85D (rather than the next-gen batteries), so it would make sense that a bigger pack would have to wait until the next-gen batteries are available.
If they make a bigger pack, they may wait and use them first in the Model-X before making them available for the Model-S, although recently they seem to be migrating the Model-X improvements to the Model-S as soon as they are available (e.g. Dual motor, AutoPilot, etc.). My guess is that the next-gen batteries are not ready yet - I just hope they will be ready before the end of 2015.
Regardless, I was wrong with my prediction. 0:-)
Well vandacca, welcome to the club. I have yet to be right! :)
It takes a wrong man to admit he's wrong. (Or something like that.)
@jjs are you saying that I joined the Wrong Club? Darn it, I can't seem to get anything right today. ;-)
Right, wrong, what's the difference? We are all guessing. I'm now thinking that they might not even bother with an MX 70.
Keep it simple. S70D, S85D, SP85D, X85 and XP85. in 2015. Battery pack with 110 kWh introduced for S and X by end of 2016 at which time the S70D will be discontinued.
7,104 18650 cells in the current box would need to have 30% more capacity than today's cells to get to 110 kWh.
One of the issues with using fewer, higher capacity cells to produce a new 85 kWh pack is the need for sufficient voltage and current to deliver the similar peak power to the drive units for the performance models to get the same or better giddy up (technical term) than they now have. I don't know if short bursts of peak current go hand in hand with higher capacity. New cells may only produce nominally more voltage and peak current than today's cells. They might just hold more charge. Could be that the performance models would use 110 kWh packs only.
My estimate is that today's cells are asked for bursts of over 16 amps of current each to launch the P85D when the Panasonic spec. calls for 3.3+ amps as the nominal discharge current.
As I have posted before, a new 85 kWh pack could be a little as half of today's cost with GF production savings and fewer, higher capacity cells. This pipe dream produces lighter, lower cost configurations for all cars at lower price and bigger profits with a little more range.
I think there will be a 70. It will be a like bait entrance price, Model X starting at mublemuble thousand dollars. I think the new/better cells will come as soon as the GF is online, maybe little sooner or later, because the Japan cells will have to be be changed, too. End of 2016 should be a safe guess. But its hard to say how much they will improve, the jump from Roadster to S cells was 50% per cell, in just 4 years, Volts cells on the other hand just improved 20% in about the same time. Something between 20-30% would be most realistically.
Now do you think the X70D will have just around 200 miles of range or will they have something magical up their sleeves to keep that range close to S70D's 240? Maybe a 220-230 range for the base X. I have a tough time buying the fact that their flagship X line will be introduced with a 200 mile range when the S just proved people want more than 200 miles.
There are two options:
Option 1: 55% likely
X70D: 218 mi EPA rated range
X85D: 246 mi EPA rated range
Option 2: 45% likely
X85D: 246 mi EPA rated range
X95D: 274 mi EPA rated range
I wouldn't be surprised of they go with option 2 because then MX would have same range as MS. If option 2 happens, I would expect the 95 kWh battery to be only in MX until Dec 2016.
Interesting is that no producer so far has upgraded the battery on EV. Tesla 60 to 70 is just addition of cells. New Volt coming is first and only generation change so far, thats also not an EV but PHEV. Rumours go around that Leaf 2016 will be the same model with upgraded 30 kW battery. That would give 170 000 Leaf owners and all EV enthusiasts assurance for development. The 150 000 miles 2011 Leaf could get the 30 kW battery in 2016 and run another 200 000 miles.
@Pj: They left the 60 for a long time knowing it was selling a lot worse than the 85 version. I think the 70 is, partly, some kind of ego thing: no Tesla with less than 200 mile range...
@krissu: Changing to soon is risky, if you would change chemistry now, an other company could just wait another year or tow, beating you in range and you would be stuck with your inferior chemistry when it begins to get interesting. Thats why almost every "next gen" EV is scheduled around 2017-18. Nobody wants to bring out a new cell now, just to introduce a new one 2 years later. The longer you can use one relatively unchanged cell the lower the costs. Every big improvement needs new production machinery, incremental improvements can be done, up to a certain point, without changing the production line (for example small chemical improvements/adjustments in battery tech).
Batteries evolve/change/improve at a much lesser rate than computers did in the 90s/2000s. With regards to batteries, there are many things that can improve, beyond the chemistry. For example, the anode and cathode material and special processing of these materials. Improvements in this area will improve battery life, because its usually these materials that break down during charge/discharge. The cell packaging also plays a role, including the cell membrane they use to separate out the two halves of the cell. The chemistry is only 1 part of the whole picture.
Elon Musk did say that the GigaFactory could handle different chemistries with little difficulty, so I don't believe that its cell evolution that is holding back EV proliferation. In fact, the Model-S has at least 3 different battery packs that I know of (A, B, or D which can determined by the sticker affixed to the front right side of the battery pack, viewed when looking under your car from just behind the passenger side wheel), so Tesla isn't afraid to improve the battery pack in incremental steps.
There are other forces at work here preventing the proliferation of EVs, but with Tesla's help, that is all about to change.
I said certain chemical changes (electrolytes) can be done without changing to much of the product line, maybe nothing at all, but especially anodes and cathodes, which are most responsible for power and energy density as well as cycle life (NMC and NCA for example are anode combinations) have distinctive production similarities to semiconductors. How much the Tesla packs have changed, or even if the cells have changed at all (it could also have been the controls/cooling/wiring or just some kind of running number, I never heard a real explanation). As far as I am concerned, most EV makers could heavily improve their cells, the question is always: is it worth doing it now, or could I wait a little longer. And as long as nobody really proves, there are differences in the Panasonic cells of a A or a C pack, I still assume they use the same cells as in 2012, thats what I would do.
@Teo: two options? 45%, 55% Did you make this up? :-)). Here's a third choice: Tesla has removed the words "battery options" from the Model X web page suggesting that there will be only one choice to begin with: 85 kWh. 100%. BTW, the letter D is redundant wrt the MX since there will be no RWD option.
@Dan: my Model S has an E pack (built in Oct., 2014). I recently looked under an S70D in the local showroom but my eyesight wasn't good enough to read the label on the battery pack. Also, it looks like they may have changed the nomenclature. One opinion about Li-ion cell aging put forth by Prof. Jeff Dahn of Dalhousie Univ. (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9qi03QawZEk) is that unwanted chemical byproducts formed during battery charging and discharging coat the anode surface reducing the area for access by charged particles.
It is rumored that the E pack cells operate at a slightly higher voltage than predecessors but I haven't been able to confirm this.
Thanks George, that is very interesting information. I guess there are now at least 4 Model-S battery pack types out there.
I have seen various electron microscopy of the anode/cathode and I think there can be multiple causes, depending on the chemistry, temperature, voltage applied, etc. I have seen issues with the anode/cathode deteriorate with cracks and holes and I'm not surprised if you tell me that they also can get coated by other byproducts (similar to oxidation?).
I have also seen them make Graphene anodes/cathodes with a tree-like structure so that they can greatly increase the charging, but it probably has a very poor lifespan at the moment.
I guess recycling can pretty much use almost all of the battery, so it may be a matter of simply extracting the LiOn, purifying it (if necessary) and adding a new anode/cathode. Elon mentions that they plan to do battery recycling at the GigaFactory.
Battery recycling sounds like a challenge. There may be two steps: 1. Battery re-use where batteries extracted from trade in car packs get recycled intact into home energy Powerwall boxes and 2. Actual tear down of cells from very old car packs and Powerwall boxes where cell degredation has progressed beyond some point.
Re-use has exciting potential because they get to sell the cells twice with very little added cost. Coupled with GF manufacturing savings, this could be very profitable.
Current recycling focuses on extraction of the expensive metals: Nickel and Cobalt. Lithium is not currently cost effective to re-refine.
"For example, the lithium in a Tesla Roadster battery pack would represent roughly $140 of a system with a replacement cost of $36,000. For most lithium-ion batteries, the lithium represents less than 3 percent of production cost." from http://www.technologyreview.com/news/414707/lithium-battery-recycling-ge...
Interesting slide presenation from Argonne National Laboratories:http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/merit_review_2009/prop...
And a paper http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212827115000797 indicates that the current recycling techniques are needlessly energy intensive, that Lithium recycling is absolutely needed, and indeed feasible.
Hmmm... I wonder if recycling is easier with one chemistry over others? Lithium, Iron, Magnesium, Cobalt, Aluminum, Phosphorus, Nickel...
@johnse: Excellent references. Very educational. Thanks. Brick'em and pick'em Incidentally, I used to work at Argonne many years ago. Back then they were only interested in nuclear reactors. Batteries were for starting cars and operating flashlights. Thanks to you, I just now found out that they switched the anode and cathode definitions while my back was turned. :-))
In light of Tesla's likely progress and the size of the battery packs, the Argonne study probably needs to be revisited, don't you think?
Because Tesla and Panasonic seem to have done a great job cresting cells that resist degredation, I believe it is likely that there will be between 5 and 10 gigawatt hours of Tesla Model S and X Li-ion cells traded in over the next 5-10 years, that are many years away from end of life because of the lure and (relatively) low cost of higher capacity replacements. This could be enough to build 5-10 million 10 kWh Powerwall boxes that would be perfectly serviceable at very low cost to the end user. This would be the best recycling plan by far. Am I dreaming?
That's re-use, and economics will determine if it's worthwhile. Long, slow Second Life capacity decline certainly offers opportunities.
Wow! Two typos in succession unless one placesTesla on the crest of the wave of Li-ion battery development.
I'm going to have to take the iPad in for an oil change.
On April 9th, 2015, I wrote,
If they don't announce a new larger pack before end of May, then I'll admit my prediction was wrong
On June 1st, 2015,
I admitted I was wrong.
Today, I want to say I was wrong about being wrong. I was only ~45 days off with my prediction. ;)
You were right about them using new cells from Panasonic, Dan. I think I was right about that decision creating some logistics issues Lots of questions for them. What is the lead time for ordering 18650s? How agile is Panasonic? Will they have too many orders for 90 kWh packs and have a surplus of 85s? Will order to delivery intervals of the MS be impacted by battery supplies? The MX will be a major consumer of 90 kWh packs when that vehicle finally goes into production. Will the X get priority, especially Signature orders (about 10,000 000 18650s )?
Lots of questions and it's your fault.
Kudos vandacca. Your prediction was indeed correct.
As for your timing, all I can say is that you were well inside the amorphous Tesla definition of "soon".
All hail the Prince of the X forum. (We now have a king and a prince which is nice just in case something happens to the king, we have a new one waiting in the wings, falcon wings.)
Yes. Elon said when 70kWh S was revealed that will be the base model for X too. Also Tesla has said for a while all X will be D.
Thanks @carlk, maybe now I'll be the guy formerly known as prince of the model-x forum. :(
Fame is so fleeting.