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Elon playing poker?

Elon playing poker?

Is it just me, or does the AWD P vs AWD VIN and delivery rollout feel like a poker game? It's almost as if Elon saw all our cards at the end of June when we all configured, realized a lot of us were holding for the less expensive AWD, and thought he'd tease us with the performance model test drives and earlier delivery to get some people off the sidelines. We all know LR RWD get VINS sooner, so most people have gone that direction. For those of us who need the AWD for winter driving (me), better range (not so much), or faster 0-60 times, he's trying to get us to raise, in the hopes of getting into a model 3 sooner. Some folks have already folded based on the 6-9 month timelines for SR M3s, and loss of govt incentives. Many of us are holding, seeing if we can wait him out.

It looks like there is a huge block of at least 9000 VINS from about 63000-72000, which have not been used for the AWD-P yet. Some AWD-P's have VINS higher than 73000, and some are in the 55000 range. They are probably making the AWD right now, but just not assigning any VINS to customers so we go all-in for the performance version. Elon's always been a risk taker, so it wouldn't surprise me if he's thinking along these lines to raise more revenue for his company.

My guess is the AWD-P VINS will keep trickling out for the rest of July. Finally, the AWD VINS will begin to get assigned in early-mid August once he's just about milked all he can out of the performance jackpot.

Thoughts?

FifthOnLeft | 2018年7月24日

I think all the moves you described were done by AI. With his personality, I doubt Musk is a good poker player.

SamO | 2018年7月24日

I think that he knows there is a small subset of owners that value performance of the P3D. Average sale price will be around $75,000.

Of the 420,000 reservations, perhaps 20% worldwide, are willing to pay the premium. Maybe 50% in North America, or 42,000 reservations. Those will take 8-12 weeks to fill.

Then the dual motor configuration will be filled. Another 10-20% opting or waiting. 20-40,0000. Similar time frame.

That's consistent with Tesla's end-of-year projections for the start of SR production.

Revelate | 2018年7月24日

There has already been an AWD set of deliveries scheduled for early August for first day people; not the same amount as the reports on P’s getting delivery dates but non-zero.

They do seem to be dribbling a few out, but an extra month or two at this point doesn’t really matter and rumor has it even some SR’s may get produced this year even if that seems rather doubtful.

Not sure lot of rumors little fact to the manufacturing process and order of delivery... either way I still hunk all the current AWD reservation holders will likely get built this year. I for one couldn’t justify the P.

Kathy Applebaum | 2018年7月24日

Elon has been so transparent about delivering higher margin cars first. Why wouldn't Tesla deliver P before AWD? Honestly, I'm kind of surprised they started with RWD -- have to assume the production is enough simpler that it was worth it to them.

carlk | 2018年7月24日

"With his personality, I doubt Musk is a good poker player."

He goes by fundamental physics (or mathematics). He's willing to take the greatest risk when he figures odds are in his favor. I think those would make him a great poker player. He would need to wear a face mask to hide his emotions though.

carlk | 2018年7月24日

@Kathy Agreed. Elon has been very transparent on most things that would not harm the company, and sometimes even things that would. At this point we know pretty much everything of the 3 model roll out in the near future. What we, and Tesla, do not know is how and how many customers would order each them. That's where people in waiting should base their decisions on.

FifthOnLeft | 2018年7月24日

@carlk: Musk is brilliant beyond a doubt. He can be a great strategist or chess player, but poker is a different game where his personality is working against him. He lays out his plans for the world to see, challenges them to follow his path, taunts them when they hesitate. He has a small bankroll but wants to play the big game, hence he struggles with the bets he makes. He is too predictable and bluffs a lot - a big no no in the big game. He's got good cards sometimes but people can see them a mile away. He has a lot of fans, but fans don't win games for him. I like his chances but he needs to get a good mentor. Putting on a mask would not work (I have a stone face when playing poker, but I still suck at it).

carlk | 2018年7月24日

@HenrySJ "He is too predictable and bluffs a lot - a big no no in the big game. "

On the contrary he's too transparent and not cable of bluffing. When he says something it is always doable at least in his mind. Facts seem to always support it too. Who would not have thought landing and reuse a rocket boaster, pods running at high speed in a low pressure tube or electric vehicles to replace gas cars is not bluffing only a years ago.

FifthOnLeft | 2018年7月24日

@carlk: I don't call him bluffing regarding technical achievements - in fact, I'm marveled at those feats. The context was money and finance. I think he underestimated the shorts and taunted them. Investors are the ones who take the heat.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 2018年7月24日

Four Dimensional Chess, more likely. Now, roll a d20.

ravisundaramam | 2018年7月24日

ReD eXiLe ms us "Four Dimensional Chess, more likely."

Yes, four dimensional chess with one opponent on each dimension, playing with just one set of pieces against all four. The four dimensions are: Big Oil, ICEV makers, Utilities and FUDSters.

WantMY | 2018年7月24日

Mostly marbles, lol

chris.pribe | 2018年7月25日

@HenrySJ: "With his personality, I doubt Musk is a good poker player"

Considering Musk is playing in the highest stakes game in the world -- the energy game -- and, given his moves so far, I'd say he's a pretty damn good poker player.

@Red: "Four Dimensional Chess, more likely"

Almost impossible to maintain a blockade in more the two dimensions; as folks in the energy/transport megalith are realizing too late, hence the hysteria.

ColoDriver | 2018年7月25日

The electric utilities are, or should be, an ally for the EV side of Tesla, a competitor in the photovoltiac solar roof side, and a potential customer for stationary storage.

That isn't poker or 4D chess, it's a soap opera! (grabs popcorn)

carlk | 2018年7月25日

@HenrySJ
*** @carlk: I don't call him bluffing regarding technical achievements - in fact, I'm marveled at those feats. The context was money and finance. I think he underestimated the shorts and taunted them. Investors are the ones who take the heat. ***

Maybe so but he did not expect others to cheat or play dirty. I'm sure he's smart enough to see that and to form a new strategy against those dirty players.

chris.pribe | 2018年7月25日

I was thinking oil too, but, yeah, it's a soap opera in a game-of-thrones kinda way. Mmm, popcorn..

FifthOnLeft | 2018年7月25日

@carlk: "Maybe so but he did not expect others to cheat or play dirty. I'm sure he's smart enough to see that and to form a new strategy against those dirty players." - very true.

Recent events show a more careful Musk. The scoop against Montana Skeptic if true was a brilliant move.

I still wish he seeks a mentor to refine his game and bring it to the next level.

funkyliam | 2018年10月27日

Have found this comment on Quora : "As one of Elon's close friends, I think I am qualified to answer this. I'll give you an example: I am an avid poker player and believe I'm quite good at it. One day, our conversation drifts to poker, and he tells me, in one of his not so rare go-getter moods, that he wants to learn how to play. Generally unaccustomed to such enthusiasm, I oblige. After about 3 hands or so of just us two playing, he folds after raising a couple times with me just matching his bet. Perplexed, I ask him the reason. He tells me that he had been calculating the probability of getting two pairs but the newly lowered odds did not deserve any more money. I was surprised by his mental ability to grasp the game so quickly. His analytical intelligence, coupled with his strong pragmatism, can make him a very good poker player". As for me, I would like to play with this outstandingly open-minded guy some tables on https://clubpokerqq.com/ . Pretty sure, that would be awesome.

dalesmith1962 | 2018年10月27日

@jeffersongreenberg No reason to fold when there is no current bet. I guess Elon never heard of “checking” instead of betting.

If there is no current bet and one has a horrible hand one should check and only fold if someone else actually bets. It is possible that everyone checks the round and one gets a free round.

Magic 8 Ball | 2019年8月12日

If anyone wants to test how many flags it takes here is a good opportunity. Flagged poker spam.
Enter your flag count here.

howard | 2019年8月12日

It is not poker when there are only 3 cards. Same game played by all the manufactures:

Supply, Demand, Margin
Demand, Supply, Margin
Margin, Demand, Supply

ETC..

hokiegir1 | 2019年8月12日

+1 on flagged spam

leo33 | 2019年8月12日

+2 flagged spam.

fernfollman4d3 | 2019年11月9日

Elon is a good poker player for sure, all smart people usually play poker great. and I dont see nothing bad in this. He is successful and he has to relax a little and the person of his level is knows good how to spend money and time for sure. I think he wins not small in casino. I am casino player too, but not so successful, anyway I play casino here https://syndicate.casino/casino/slots/belatra. Also not bad online casino.

fernfollman4d3 | 2019年11月9日

Elon is a good poker player for sure, all smart people usually play poker great. and I dont see nothing bad in this. He is successful and he has to relax a little and the person of his level is knows good how to spend money and time for sure. I think he wins not small in casino. I am casino player too, but not so successful, anyway I play casino here https://syndicate.casino/casino/slots/belatra. Also not bad online casino.