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No HW3 upgrade for FSD "Maybe, Maybe Not?"

No HW3 upgrade for FSD "Maybe, Maybe Not?"

Musk just said it. FSD will be software upgrades only.

Sweetride | 2019年3月14日

Perhaps he was projecting what will be necessary for the Model Y as the later hardware may already be in production by the time the Y is ready.

TAC | 2019年3月14日

Mayt the FUD be with you young Jedi.

Rt002k | 2019年3月14日

I think he was talking about the Y only.

Hal Fisher | 2019年3月14日

Asked on the chat, yes you will get upgraded hardware with FSD purchase.

mrburke | 2019年3月14日

He said within the year and software only ? So who knows what he meant. He was very "wired" tonight.

dgstan | 2019年3月14日

Here's what I got from Tesla:

Thank you for contacting Tesla. I apologize for the delay in response. Currently, your vehicle is not configured for Auto Pilot or Full Self Driving. As Full Self Driving works in conjunction with Auto Pilot you would need to purchase Auto Pilot then Full Self Driving to have all features. The Full Self Driving package would include future features (including autonomous driving) and updates. There has not been a formal announcement regarding if additional hardware will be needed as features are still currently being developed. If hardware is needed, we will let our customers know and how to acquire it at a later date. I hope this offers some clarification on the matter.

Carl Thompson | 2019年3月14日

How could he be talking about the Y when he said FSD would be an update _this_ year and the Y doesn't come out until the end of _next_ year?

Rt002k | 2019年3月14日

Thanks Hal. I've been trying to get onto chat to ask that but the chat option never comes up for me.

cascadiadesign | 2019年3月14日

All very confusing. We have Elon's prior tweets and earnings call which indicate FSD requires HW3. Then we have Elon's statement tonight at the Y reveal regarding FSD will only require software updates (and yes, he said end of this year). Then we have the message posted by dgstan above showing no commitment from Tesla at the moment. Finally, we have no mention of HW3 on the FSD order page.

M3phan | 2019年3月14日

I assume it is software update only for the Y because it would already have HW3.

M3phan | 2019年3月14日

In other words, his FSD comment was in the context of the model Y only.

efuseakay | 2019年3月14日

Yes. In context of the Y which is what he was talking about. It will already have HW3, so it will only need software updates.

mrburke | 2019年3月14日

There will be no Model Y by the end of this year, so he could not have Benn talking about it.

Maybe he just mispoke

I don't care about the hardware, I only care if it works.

M3phan | 2019年3月14日

Yeah he easily could’ve conflated things

M3phan | 2019年3月14日

I would like the hardware because of it’s discussed processing speed and potential.

RES IPSA | 2019年3月14日

My understanding is that there needs to be a robust 5G network in place to have Level 4 or 5 autonomous driving. I am wrong about this?

RES IPSA | 2019年3月14日

I meant to write "Am I wrong about this?"

I do not know for sure... just what i have read in news articles on the subject.

M3phan | 2019年3月14日

I posted this on the Y reveal thread; Here come a bunch of caveats ; )
They have already defined FSD as something less than true FSD, and that redefined thing is what I think is coming out (possibly) end of year, and (possibly) doesn’t require new hardware. But as FSD (possibly) gets redefined and developed, it seems logical to me that it will require better hardware for processing and image resolution. Hardware that the Y would (possibly) already have.
So all his statements tonight can be true and don’t necessarily contradict previous statements re FSD and HW3

cascadiadesign | 2019年3月14日

@M3phan

I think that is the most plausible explanation.

There is no standard definition of FSD. FSD can be anything Tesla wants it to be. Also, the FSD order page no longer uses the word autonomous. Tesla has dummy-downed their definition of FSD.

So I think Model 3 FSD owners are not going to get HW3 free. At the end of the year, what you see is what you get.

Any further advancements will get a new name (Super Delux FSD?) and require Model 3 owners to purchase a hardware upgrade. This is what I feel is going to happen.

If Model 3 FSD owners are entitled to a free HW3 upgrade, why wouldn't Tesla promote that on the FSD order page?

Regardless of Elon's tweets, legally you're only entitled to what is described on the FSD order page.

M3phan | 2019年3月14日

@cascadiadesign: yep, could be. I’d be content that my $2K got me additional “FSD” features unavailable to me had I stayed with EAP. And I was content that my cash helped end of quarter. HW3 would be icing but I agree with your scenario above as very possible.

jjt2122 | 2019年3月14日

Here is the tweet, all past and future FSD buyers will get HW3 retro fit.
https://twitter.com/fredericlambert/status/1105337415588167680?s=21

jjt2122 | 2019年3月14日
texxx | 2019年3月15日

@cascadiadesign

I think you have it exactly right. There will be another package you need to purchase and I suspect the hardware upgrades will be far more than just a CPU swap. Not sure there's any other serious self-driving program out there that isn't using LIDAR to handle bad weather/nighttime conditions.Maybe Tesla will figure out how to do it with just cameras and radar. If so, that will be mighty impressive, but I've got to believe that's years away.

I paid the $2K to add FSD to the EAP I already purchased because it sure looks like the EAP feature set is done - no more enhancement without FSD. But what we'll see and when? Who knows. It's all a leap of faith at this point.

burdogg | 2019年3月15日

Just shaking my head at some people :)

There is going to be a hardware upgrade - how do I know that? Because they have a faster computer that they have only been talking about for what 6 months to 1 year now that is needed for FSD.

Also - there are MANY of us out there that have the 2.0 hardware - we don't even get DASH CAM. IF we can't even have dashcam and yet purchased FSD - you honestly don't think we will need a hardware upgrade?!?

And for those that want to make too much of little things - like now FSD means Enhanced autopilot, or is not what they used to say FSD is...ummm maybe but highly doubt it and you are reading WAY too much into it. They have WAY too many people that purchased FSD from what they professed it to be - there would be some heavy class action lawsuits for that switched - so my opinion, you are reading WAY too much into it. Besides, they had to get Autopilot more affordable - so they did it by dropping the EAP features, but those features had to be placed somewhere - so they are added to the FSD list.

But continue to throw the speculation around - but there are some statements out there that Tesla has made that some continue to ignore :)

Xerogas | 2019年3月15日

@RES IPSA: "My understanding is that there needs to be a robust 5G network in place to have Level 4 or 5 autonomous driving. I am wrong about this?"
------
Seems wrong. All the processing needs to happen locally, instantly, inside the car. Waiting for a cloud computer to tell your car to stop at a red light is fraught with danger. Internet connectivity should have nothing to do with self-driving.

howard | 2019年3月15日

What Elon tweets or say does no bind Tesla to anything. I have absolutely zero confidence in a true FSD functionality in my M3. Put my $2,000 bet on improved EAP. That is all we are really going to get period. Hope it includes new hardware but no one really knows!!!!

walnotr | 2019年3月15日

Yup, like the statement that HW3 is plug compatible with the current hardware and it will be an easy 30 minute swap. I was on the fence about FSD until ithe new chip was announced and would be included for those who had purchased FSD with their cars.

burdogg | 2019年3月15日

howard - how about Tesla's own site that when I purchased FSD back in 2016 stated - you can get in your car and say nothing and it will automatically take you home - with NO driver input....

That IS binding...and if my HW 2.0 can't even do a dashcam... you honestly don't think there will need to be a HW upgrade - and that if what was paid for in 2016 does not come to fruition with what they call FSD there won't be major class action blow back? Just curious....

And according to Tesla - Musks Twitter account IS a method of communication from TESLA - filed with the SEC - hence why all the issues Musk is in with the SEC over his tweets - TESLA chose to make Elon's personal Twitter account part of their official communications method...

But again - it was right on their website what those who purchased FSD would get.

raffidesigns | 2019年3月15日

This is the only statement I will make. For those back in 2015 who made the purchase for the full FSD package for $11,000 are not going to pay any extra. They are now on 4+ years waiting for FSD to be released.

howard | 2019年3月15日

Burdogg, I am 99.999% sure that is not going to happen:

howard - how about Tesla's own site that when I purchased FSD back in 2016 stated - you can get in your car and say nothing and it will automatically take you home - with NO driver input....

mos6507 | 2019年3月15日

"They are now on 4+ years waiting for FSD to be released."

Never underestimate the patience of fanbois. And when Musk declares mission-accomplished years later and FSD remains shy of level 5, never underestimate the forgiveness of fanbois.

burdogg | 2019年3月15日

howard - while I have my own skeptic thoughts on it too - I would definitely take that bet with you at your 99.9999% sure it is not going to happen.

spuzzz123 | 2019年3月15日

And never underestimate the persistence of trolls.

burdogg | 2019年3月15日

@mos - sure there are over the top that would accept it - but less you forget - there are many that won't - and Tesla paid the price already on their EAP roll out - there was a class action lawsuit that Tesla settled...while some think it was ok - there were many that were disgusted with the misguiding Tesla did at that time of transition....

burdogg | 2019年3月15日

lest - not less

weluvm3 | 2019年3月15日

"I hope this offers some clarification on the matter." NOT!

For all of you who are so certain that purchasing FSD will include a hardware upgrade: please explain why a hardware upgrade isn't specifically mentioned anywhere on the order screen?

Look, Tesla actually *wants* to sell the FSD, don't they? I mean, if they don't want people to buy it, then why do they offer it?

If a manufacturer wants to sell something, then they implicitly want to sell as many as they possibly can. In the case of FSD, there is no lack of supply, as it is just a software download. They can easily sell a license with every car out there, provided people were willing to buy it.

And what better way to increase demand than to promise to upgrade every purchasers' hardware for free?

Proof: most of the people claiming to have purchased FSD lately have justified their purchase based on a vague belief that Tesla will upgrade your hardware. AND IT DOESN'T EVEN SAY THAT ON THE PURCHASING SCREEN!

What if Tesla actually promised, right on the option screen, the if you bought FSD today, you were GUARANTEED to receive a FREE upgrade to HW3 ASAP? How many more people would click on "buy?"

And, if Tesla REALLY WAS intending to upgrade purchasers anyway, then a clear, affirmative statement to that effect wouldn't cost them anything. It would just add to their bottom line. Immediately. And imagine all the free publicity, too.

So, to conclude: THINK PEOPLE, THINK! You are all dreaming. You are all projecting your hopes and wishes on Tesla. Again. Tesla is really good at getting people to do that. Then, once the truth comes out, the Fanyboys are also really good at slapping people down when they express surprise about yet another disappointment. It happens over and over again, and you guys never learn. Just. Stop. Please.

sheldon.mike1010 | 2019年3月15日

Well, weluvm3, that triggered me to immediately sell the car and call my attorney. You totally convinced me that there will never be any improvements to the M3. Thanks.

howard | 2019年3月15日

@ burdogg | March 15, 2019
howard - while I have my own skeptic thoughts on it too - I would definitely take that bet with you at your 99.9999% sure it is not going to happen.

Elon stated that for FSD (no driver input level 4-5) to be fully implemented it would have to be 99.999% perfect/reliable. This not going to happen and everyone knows it. It is going to be an enhanced version of EAP. Never are you going to get into your Tesla and have it drive you to a destination with no driver input. Period!

burdogg | 2019年3月15日

Wow - I will take that bet :) I would never say never - just ask Shock about that...he is willing to admit that while he professed NEVER and was continually called out on it - he stuck to his guns of never - and then he had to come back and admit he never saw it coming....

Never is a LONG time. Now if you were to have said your car will go anywhere with no one in it...I might give pause...but it is very easy to see it coming when you get in the driver seat, and watch the car take you completely home without you touching a thing...

But time will tell - I am just betting that 99.999% is you saying never, and I would not ever say that...as I am sure people way back in the day would have said we will NEVER step foot on the moon...

howard | 2019年3月15日

Let’s be clear. As you state you go to diner on the other side of town come out get it your Model 3 and expect it to drive you home day or night without any human input whatsoever you are most definitely on. It is not going to happen with your Model 3.

Brian B | 2019年3月15日

The only thing that Musk said was that they would have FSD features at the end of this year, but you won't be able to do it truly hands free (only because of regulations) until it is approved.

weluvm3 | 2019年3月15日

@sheldon.mike1010 "Well, weluvm3, that triggered me to immediately sell the car and call my attorney. You totally convinced me that there will never be any improvements to the M3. Thanks."

I'm curious: what, exactly, about my post prompted you to do that?

Hey, anyone else what to sell your M3's? Get in touch: I wouldn't mind picking up a used one for a good price!

TeslaTap.com | 2019年3月15日

As for Level 5 (i.e. no steering wheel or brake controls) I don't think anyone expects Tesla to remove them from your car to get to Level 5 (no driver input possible). FSD will be Level 4 where you have the option for FSD or driving yourself. I also expect there will be conditions where FSD will not work - it could be weather conditions such as a whiteout or specific geo fenced areas. For example, I really doubt it will work on some of those crazy 6 lane wide roundabouts in the center of some European cities, where no one follows any rules. The first versions will have more limitations, and as tougher conditions are validated, they should be rolled out with updates.

Do not expect an instant FSD on some single day either. It will be a layered rollout similar to EAP rollout, and could take quite a few years to get it all. Tesla, smartly, has never promised a date for FSD, so temper your expectations. Of course some do not believe FSD will ever be a realty, but so long as improvements keep coming (hardware and software), it will be an interesting Journey.

Full disclosure, I have not bought FSD (yet). Thinking hard on it at the $2K price - just to get the dashcam and sentry features, and I suspect existing EAP features will be even better/smoother with HW3's higher resolution processing.

Carl Thompson | 2019年3月15日

@burdogg:
"There is going to be a hardware upgrade - how do I know that? Because they have a faster computer that they have only been talking about for what 6 months to 1 year now that is needed for FSD."

Logically that makes sense. But financially I'm not sure that Tesla can or will be willing to do it. How many cars out there would they have to upgrade? How much do you think it costs per unit for a company to produce its own relatively low-volume custom high-powered ASIC / GPU? (Tesla has no chip fabs so it's a custom order somewhere.) How much do you think it will cost Tesla per car for the service center visit and all the logistics involved? Tesla is now selling the FSD package for just $2,000. Can they design, produce and swap out the computer for that little? How much will the total swap program cost? As far as I know Tesla has not been putting the FSD money people have paid aside in an untouched fund so how will they account for the at least several hundred million dollar cost of this?

I just paid $5,000 on faith only because Musk said we would get new hardware. Now Musk says FSD needs no new hardware. Who do I believe? Musk yesterday or Musk before yesterday?

howard | 2019年3月15日

Brian, with respect it has nothing with regulation at this point. It is liability pure and simple. True hands free is very far off and not with our current cars.

CharleyBC | 2019年3月15日

@Xerogas: "All the processing needs to happen locally, instantly, inside the car. Waiting for a cloud computer to tell your car to stop at a red light is fraught with danger. Internet connectivity should have nothing to do with self-driving."

Partially agree, partially disagree. Real-time driving computations absolutely must be local in the car for the reasons you said. Spot on. However, I can definitely see that the car would require situational data from the cloud. Map info, speed limits, stuff like that. It'd anticipate and cache such info. And thus I could see that if the cloud connection dropped, and you were about to drive beyond where the car already had cached data, you might get "Self driving disabled".

burdogg | 2019年3月15日

@Carl Thompson - I don't know if it will be free or not - I haven't really hinted at that yet - but I do know that those with AP 2.0 hardware have NO way of FSD working even though they paid for it...like i said - we can't even process enough to get the Dashcam feature....

You have to think about what Musk was saying last night - remember, the chip they developed is coming out here anytime...so cars being delivered here shortly are not going to need any new hardware - and a reveal...he is talking future cars, not current cars... At least that is what I have learned being around as long as I have...Musks comments a lot of times are not retroactive, but forward. Kind of like talking about sentry mode - which of course isn't possible on my AP 1.0 car - but he doesn't delineate his statements of what applies to what... So many assume he means the whole fleet previous and now...when a lot of times, he is talking about a future car.

rxlawdude | 2019年3月15日

@Ttap, the only reasonable conclusion one can draw is, at best, M3s as currently designed (even with HW3) will get SAE Level 3 autonomy.

I don't see Level 4 in the foreseeable future.

raffidesigns | 2019年3月15日

Only time will tell. Enhanced Summon is coming soon. We will see how well that’s plays in parking lots. I’m young. I have a good 60 years left. We'll se how the next 60 years pans out.

weluvm3 | 2019年3月15日

@howard For sure, as soon as Tesla tells us that we are not responsible for what our car does, that means that TESLA is now responsible. Which means that they are liable for any property loss, injuries or death. And we all know that there WILL be losses, injuries and deaths, When those cases go to court, it's anybody's guess how badly juries will want to punish Tesla for any mishaps.

What insurance company do you suppose will touch that risk? Would Tesla be willing to bet their future? Pharmaceutical companies at least can point to FDA regulations as long as they follow the rules: what agency would have Tesla's back today if they dared to market a true Full Self Driving car?

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