FUD, FUD, FUD and More FUD

FUD, FUD, FUD and More FUD

Recent Headlines from Apple’s Newsfeed on Tesla

Tesla News: Will Elon Musk’s Car Company Turn A Second-Half Profit in 2019?
Text: Dan Ives equity analyst @ Wedbush Capital Markets Group: “Ultimately I have a better chance of playing for the [Toronto] Raptors than [Tesla] hitting that profitability target second half.”
Better get in shape for training camp, Dan, or do we need remind you of past predictions you've made about Tesla to spur you to get in shape 'cause you suck as an analyst?

International Business Times: Tesla May Need Advertising As New Rivals Rise Up
1. All of the new “rivals’” offerings in the near future are woefully deficient in range and/or performance.
2. Are all the car ads we’re bombarded with every time we watch TV working? Some sales figures: GM (-7% 1st Q overall, Silverado (-16%), Suburban (-25%); FORD (-2%), {-5% in March alone}; FCA (-3%), {-7% in March}, all brands dropped in March except the RAM (+15%); Toyota (-5%), {33.5% in March}, declining demand for Corolla and Camry; Nissan (-11.6%), {-3.5% in March}; Honda (+2%), {+4.3% in March}; Hyundai (+1.7%), {+2% in March}. Text: Overall, U.S. new-vehicles sales are expected to decline in 2019 after a long bull run since the end of the Great Recession, led by falling passenger car sales.”
And the reason to advertise given the above results is…?

CARBUZZ: Chevy and Cadillac Are Finally Gunning for Tesla
They’ve decided to invest in building charging stations. Hooray for them! These are supposed to somehow threaten Tesla’s supercharger network which only its cars can use right now. Uh, why? Don’t you have to have some electric cars that need to charge at your stations? There aren’t any other than the Bolt which has minuscule sales compared to all other Tesla models.

GIZMODO: There Is Absolutely No Reason To Trust the Safety Record of Tesla’s Autopilot System
HOW MANY FREAKING TIMES DO YOU HAVE TO BE TOLD TESLA DOESN’T CURRENT OFFER A COMPLETE AUTOPILOT SYSTEM? It’s Beta. It gets better by the month. Any Tesla owner who has a lick of sense knows it’s not yet ready for prime time and uses it responsibly. FUD, FUD, FUD.

YAHOO FINANCE: Tesla’s chances of hitting its profit goal: ‘An Uphill Battle”
Text from article: “Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk predicted in February that the company would turn a profit in the second half of 2019. That marked a reversal from his prior prediction that the electric automaker would be profitable every quarter beginning with the Q3 2018. Tesla did make good on part of that promise. The Palo Alto-based company made a $139 million profit in the fourth quarter of 2018, the first time the company has ever posted back-to-back profitable quarters in its 15-year history. But Tesla went back to its money-losing ways in the first quarter of 2019, posting a first quarter loss of $72 million along with a revenue miss.”

Tesla got caught with its logistics pants down. Production was fine. (Remember when that was the shorts’ favorite topic?) Tesla did fall short on deliveries as it ran into shipping problems and delays at ports of entry in Europe and China. Wall Street geniuses: This ain’t a fatal problem. It can be fixed rather easily. Experience is a great teacher. Tell us, btw, how full are the ships taking Chevies and Fords to Europe and China these days? Answer: Not very.

There are a ton more stories like the examples above. Geeze this crap gets old.

Tropopause | 2019年6月1日

Agree. I've had it with reading the FUD and have turned to Electrek, Tesla Time News and some others as my sources for REAL news about Tesla.

Tesla-David | 2019年6月1日

Me too. The FUD articles are beyond disgusting, and given the ICE vehicle sales problems absolutely false. I give them a pass now and only focus on the positive ones.

EmperorTytus | 2019年6月2日

I get triggered by the headline and the little picture next to it, usually of Elon either looking stupid, prideful, confused, depressed, or whatever is expressive of the narrative they’re pushing that day. Pretty disgusting I find it.

mayseemsilly | 2019年6月2日

Regarding the advertising, Audi's e-tron GT ad in the last Avengers movie definetely should have its impact

neukwen | 2019年6月2日

While I support the sentiment, we should be careful not to create inaccuracies of our own. The Q1 loss was $702M, not $72M.

Mike83 | 2019年6月2日

Tesla makes over 20% on each Tesla sold I believe and the profit goes into expansion WORLDWIDE. A GROWTH company doesn't pay dividends or show profits(ie. AMAZON in it's beginning) but since they already raked in $22 Billion, own factories in California and Nevada and now in China with a growth rate of 81% I feel very comfortable and question the FUD since it is make by industries being disrupted. Really it is so simple to understand.

Tesla-David | 2019年6月2日

Totally agree with @Mike83's points. I watched this utube video link (below) from M3 thread on FUD Consumer Reports reporting on Auto Pilot, which had me howling I was so pissed off. The FUD articles are incredible and beyond disgusting, May they rot in Hell for their heavily biased and false reporting.

Tesla-David | 2019年6月2日

This utube clip entitled "Is Tesla Doomed?: Teslanomics by Ben Sullins is a refreshing overview on the real reality of Tesla.

Mike83 | 2019年6月2日

Great links. Thanks Tesla-David

SamO | 2019年6月2日

Money is spread . . .to misinform the public. Tesla doesn't advertise.

andy.connor.e | 2019年6月3日

Been reading FUD for 3 years. They basically talk about whatever suits their narrative at the time. First it was production. But they used that as the mechanism in which Tesla would fail, well that didnt happen so now they dont talk about it anymore. But they didnt fail. Now they will never turn a profit, which will lead to their failure. Ya sure, you can be wrong 150 times, but if you're right once, you'll probably stick your finger in my face saying TOLD YOU SO.

Believe me, its gotten so old i dont even search for Tesla news anymore. Its all trash.

Wormtown Kris | 2019年6月3日

In the past, once they've driven down the price to a certain level, some "analysts" and "experts" have historically suddenly done an about face and said, "no wait, Tesla is not as bad as we thought. It's a great Buy at this price!" Jim Cramer will be more than happy to give those people a platform and a voice and heartily agree with them.
I would not be surprised in the least if some institutional buyers (who currently rate TSLA as a "Strong Sell") are quietly hoarding shares right now. Once they've had their fill, or as soon as 2Q results are reported, they will be advocates for TSLA again.
I hope Shares Shorted are up to 40% by then. It will be fun to watch!

andy.connor.e | 2019年6月4日

Why does anyone care about what Cramer says

Wormtown Kris | 2019年6月4日

No idea. I've seen him for the lying weasel that he is since the Dot Com bubble era. But fact is he's got a platform w/ CNBC and The Street....

Tesla-David | 2019年6月4日

I remain all IN on TSLA stock holding long since 2010. Cramer is a scumbag and I would never listen to him for stock advice. I agree with @Wormtown Kris's analysis. I want to see the short sellers squirm. I think Tesla will have a very strong second quarterly report.

Middledawg | 2019年6月4日

I tweet once every year or so. Don't really like the medium. I did today with this link. Zach and Jessie of Now You Know have published a YouTube segment (43:19) that lays it all out. I highly recommend it. (Also put it up in a thread of its own here. It's really good IMO).

Tesla-David | 2019年6月4日

Wow, simply Wow, thanks @dmm1240 for the truly outstanding youtube segment by Jessy and Zac. Well worth the 43 minutes. I love EM and how he is disrupting so many industries. The FUDis explained. The FUDsters are crappingall over themselves because they know deep inside they are going down and are on the wrong side of these disruptions.

bp | 2019年6月5日

Some of the uncertainty has been generated by Tesla - especially during the months when Tesla was going to close stores - and then backed off - coupled with frequent price/configuration changes and statements like Tesla could run out of money in a few months.

Things should improve if Tesla meets or exceeds delivery goals this quarter, gets close to or achieves profitability, and they start demonstrating more stability in strategy and implementation - which they've done for much of the time since the Model S was introduced 7 years ago.

Tesla is going through a rapid growth period right now - which was always going to put pressure on the company - and if they can string together several quarters in a row with more stability, much of this FUD will disappear. Keep delivering S/3/X, add Y/semi/pickup, bring Gigafactory 3 online and begin selling directly into China (the largest EV market) and avoid making what appears to be knee jerk decisions on short term challenges (at least publicly).

SamO | 2019年6月5日

The FUD won’t disappear until more fossil fuel bankruptcies transpire. #soon

Wormtown Kris | 2019年6月5日

Excellent link! Thanks.

Tesla-David | 2019年6月12日

Very positive Tesla Shareholder meeting yesterday.

"Simon 16:15 PT: And that’s the 2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting! Elon, JB, and Drew get a standing ovation from the audience. How often does that happen in a shareholder meeting?"

"Dacia 15:52 PT: “Incredibly, there have been a lot of negative articles (about Tesla) in Bloomberg,” Elon observes in response to a shareholder’s concern about the myths and disinformation spread about Tesla. Elon seems to consider a mythbusting site to battle all the negativity.

Simon 15:51 PT: A shareholder suggests connecting with media titans to curb the negative narrative and misinformation surrounding Tesla. Elon takes this point very well.

Dacia 15:49 PT: “Customer testimony and referrals are the key to our sales,” Elon says about the company’s success.

Dacia 15:48 PT: “If it was possible to have a 6th star, we’d have a 6th star,” Elon touts Tesla’s super high safety ratings. Huzzah!

Simon 15:47 PT: Shareholder question on what Tesla plans to do with the misinformation surrounding the company. Elon notes that the misconceptions are distressing, but even if Tesla provides explanations to mainstream media, these get buried in articles. Musk admits that he is at a little bit of a loss when it comes to changing the negative narrative about the company. Elon, Drew, and JB thank shareholders for being Tesla’s line of defense against the misinformation campaign.

Dacia 15:46 PT: On Tesla fires…Elon points out how rare Tesla incidents are, especially compared to gasoline-powered cars. “Internal…combustion…engine…it’s in the name,” he jokes. “Would you rather have a gasoline powered phone or a battery powered phone?” He also points out how ridiculous the disinformation campaign has been about Tesla fires."

Mr. Spacely | 2019年6月18日

I created this to give to FUDs and newbies to EV:

Range— No electric automaker beats Tesla’s Model S range of 370 miles depending on battery option. Their cars built in 2012 still travel farther on a charge than any current competition. At 65 MPH you could drive about 5 hours without stopping. Different models and price points have less range. Elon Musk claims Tesla is close to creating a 400 mile range vehicle.

Charging—Most folks just plug in at home overnight like a cellphone for about one forth the cost of gas. Many get free energy at work, school, hotels, and mall chargers. For trips Tesla has 13,300 Superchargers providing a 70% charge in 25 min.

Maintenance— The cars require no maintenance for 2 years other than adding windshield fluid and rotating tires. They have very few moving parts. Obviously no gas, oil changes, timing belts, spark plugs, etc.

Batteries— Tesla’s batteries show just a 6% degradation of the energy capacity after 200,000 miles. After working with Panasonic in the past, Tesla is moving towards making all their own batteries after the acquisition of Maxwell Technology.

Performance— Teslas are among the fastest cars in the world reaching 0-60 in 2.3 sec. on some models. Even the “slowest” ones reach 0-60 in 5.6 sec. The torque is instant and there are no gears. They are better handling than most exotic sports cars due to weight distribution with the batteries and motor(s) beneath you.

Safety— The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) gave all three of Tesla’s models a perfect 5-star safety rating in every category. Many other cars achieve an overall 5-star rating, but not 5 stars in every category.

The Tesla App— Your phone automatically locks and unlocks your Model 3 so you don’t need to carry keys. You can start your air conditioning remotely, check your charge level, and even summon your car to back out by itself from the phone. The S and X models have key fobs in addition to app features..

Self-Driving— Although it is still in Beta, Tesla is the leader in self-driving. The closest competitor is WAYMO (formerly Google cars). WAYMO is expensive using LIDAR, so each route has to be pre-established by mapping and human drivers. Tesla uses radar, eight cameras, and 12 ultrasonic sensors allowing it to figure out unchartered places and unmapped roads.

Software updates— Regular software updates are pushed to the cars overnight. Your Tesla gets better over time and learns self-driving from the entire 750,000 car fleet. New technology is added. Safety systems, autopilot, mapping, and battery performance can improve. It’s unheard of for automakers to release a future-proofed car.

Dash Cam, Sentry, and Dog Mode— The car records vandalism or accidents onto a flash drive for police or insurance claims. You can leave it “running” with a dog inside and the screen declares “My owner will be back. It’s 72 degrees.”

Sales and Demand—The Tesla Model 3 is the number one selling electric car both in the US and worldwide. Last year, the Model 3 outsold any other premium sedan gas or electric in the U.S. It is the fifth best-selling car of any kind in the US behind Camry, Accord, Civic, and Corolla. Since it began mass production in January 2018, the Model 3 has more sales than the Mercedes C Class, Mercedes E Class, BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4 combined.

China— Tesla will complete “Giga Factory 3” in Shanghai later this year. The massive plant is already installing production equipment after just breaking ground in January 2019. It will make batteries and Model 3 cars for China reducing tariff and shipping issues. China is the world’s number one market for electric cars.

Resale Value— A new study shows that Tesla’s Model S is holding its value 2 times better than the average gasoline car and 3 times better than the average electric car despite the impact of Electric Vehicle (EV) incentives. Resale values should get even better as drivers start to understand EV and ditch their Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles.

Next models— Tesla is taking reservations for the Model Y which is a mid-sized SUV based on the Model 3 platform. It will come in summer/fall of 2020. Tesla plans to unveil the electric pickup truck fall of 2019 with production in 2021.

Robo-Taxis— Tesla plans to roll out self-driving “robotaxis” in the future when it is capable and as regulators allow it. Since Tesla will have more than a million cars on the road by 2020, all they will need to do is flip a switch and they’ll instantly start dominating taxi and rideshare markets. If Tesla beats other automakers to the market the stock will explode and Uber/Lyft become worthless. In the mean time, Tesla is considering a stopgap of having humans to directly compete with Uber and Lift now.

Tesla-David | 2019年6月18日

Thanks Mr. Spacely. Nice summary of points. I would add one more addition to your point about keyfobs for MS and MX. The M3 also has a keyfob option ($150) that for most is not necessary, but we have one and I for one love it and use it. Tesla rocks for all the reasons you stated. | 2019年6月18日

@Mr. Spacely - Agreed - great info! A couple of minor tweaks though-

"Tesla’s batteries show just a 6% degradation of the energy capacity after 200,000 miles."

The data on the S/X battery I could find showed an average of about 7.4% degradation after 120K miles. Still quite good, but not the numbers you include. There is some variance, so some owners may get 6% in 200K miles, but I'd expect similar number of owners to have 12% at 200K miles. I've not seen enough Model 3 battery data to evaluate degradation. I'm hopeful it will be even better than the S/X, but we'll have to wait a few years.

'WAYMO is expensive using LIDAR, so each route has to be pre-established by mapping and human drivers."

Your confusing two different systems. Waymo uses multiple LIDARs, and it's very expensive. Routes do not need to be pre-mapped. GM & Cruise Automation (which GM now owns) sells one car that requires routes be pre-mapped using a test car with LIDAR. The cars they sell do not have LIDAR, so the automated driving only works on those pre-mapped routes and hopefully nothing changes since the time the test car looked at the road.

"...and learns self-driving from the entire 750,000 car fleet."

I actually couldn't find the number of AP2 cars made, but I think it is closer to 600,000. Older AP1 cars are not useful and pre AP1 cars do not have any AP hardware.

I also think this may be a bit misleading that they are learning from every car. While details are sketchy, I get the impression they are only looking for key events of interest - where AP running in shadow mode does something different than the manual driver. Even then, they appear to have some heavy filters, so they are not overloaded with data that is of little value. Still the concept you outline is far more succinct that all this and gets the point across :)

"A new study shows that Tesla’s Model S is holding its value 2 times better than the average gasoline car and 3 times better than the average electric car "

Can you provide the reference? While I know it's held up better than competitors, this sounds too good to be true. I'm a bit unclear what 2 or 3 times better actually means or how it's figured.

Rest of the details look good to me!

greg | 2019年6月18日

The study is from this story on Electrek:

Basically, it looks at Model S prices (newer Models don't have enough long term data to determine the pattern yet).

But Tesla Model S beats all cars for retaining value.

Mr. Spacely | 2019年6月19日

TeslaTap-- good points. Agreed on AP1 cars reducing learnable fleet. The 6% battery was in a article. Thanks Greg for finding reference for holding value.

Earl and Nagin ... | 2019年6月19日

"...and learns self-driving from the entire 750,000 car fleet."
Other than whether this number is really 600,000, (it will soon be more than 750,000 if you just wait a few months), I think this is a totally true statement even if it is not actively taking all data from all cars all the time. That whole fleet and where it goes is available to Tesla for learning and they get all they can handle. There probably just isn't enough CPU or communications bandwidth to take advantage of all of it all the time. | 2019年6月19日

@greg - Thanks - I hadn't caught that article. Nice to see things exceed my expectations (which are already high)!

@Earl and Nagin - Good points - Yep fleet is increasing at a crazy rate :)

@Mr. Spacely - Keep up the great work!

andy.connor.e | 2019年6月19日

Keep up the great work informing people of the truth

Tesla-David | 2019年6月23日

Very timely and interesting take by Jesse and Zac entitled "Tesla Short Squeeze! | In Depth" Bottom line hang on to your TSLA stock!

andy.connor.e | 2019年6月25日

They'll never make an electric car! - They did

No one will want to buy it! - People want it

They'll never make it more affordable - They did

Production problems! - Fixed

Demand problems! - Wasnt real to begin with

Delivery problems! - You're kidding right?

To me, i dont understand how people cannot see the obvious bullcrap.