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How much could gas savings finance the cost of a new Model 3?

How much could gas savings finance the cost of a new Model 3?

At 35K minus tax incentives that could drop the effective price to 25K, might frugal Model 3 buyers opt to go without a home charger and power their 3's totally with nearby free superchargers?

Potential Tesla buyers have already told me the cost of a home charger at $750, plus installation, of $300 to $750, would be out of their budget. I paid $750 pus $597 for installation for my home Tesla charging station, a total that horrified one person I talked with.

In other words, the frugal buyer might look upon "free gas for life" with their Tesla purchase and opt for 100% supercharger use to avoid running up their electric bills.

How much would gas savings finance the cost of a new Model 3?

I'm sure the aftermarket will put a pencil to the cost savings.

Roamer@AZ USA | 2016年3月14日

You may see a completly new SC access system since many buyers in this price range won't have easy access to home charging.

It would be very easy to implement an onboard billing system and simply bill for the time the car is plugged in. With EV charging the cost is not the electricity as much as it is the tied up infrastructure. It takes a lot of space and machinery for an extremely small sale. What you would be paying for would be the time spent using the space.

They are going to need something like that to keep the masses from parking their cars at Super Chargers over night.

SUN 2 DRV | 2016年3月14日

Roamer +10 Right on...........

flight505 | 2016年3月14日

Onboard billing system means through the car's computer, I gather.

I have talked to people who might not buy a Model 3 because they don't want to pay for a home charging station.

SUN 2 DRV | 2016年3月14日

Flight505: That would be a natural reaction from someone used to the gas station model, where another entity pays for the refueling infrastructure. But once they realize that one of the major advantages of an EV is to wake up to a full charge every morning just by spending 10 seconds to plug in the night before, I think they'll be much more open to having their own recharging capability.

For anyone with a garage, the cost savings and convenience of having your own recharging capability is very compelling once they see the whole picture.

KP in NPT | 2016年3月14日

Why not save a bundle and just put in a dryer plug? The tesla charger is way overpriced and not necessary IMO.

I don't think, in the beginning anyway, Tesla is going to have an issue with demand. If demand slows I would envision them offering the $1200 referral for charging costs again....if that's ever even needed.

jordanrichard | 2016年3月14日

and the mis-information continues.

Unless, and I don't see this happening, Tesla does not put onboard chargers in the Model ≡, there will be no additional costs to charge at home other than a 14-50 outlet. Obviously location makes a difference, but my 14-50 outlet cost me all of $250 to be professionally installed.

Also, the Model ≡ will have free access to the superchargers. So there will be no need for any billing system.

Gas savings? Last year I saved $2,022 in gas costs, that is definitely not something to sneeze at and would definitely get the attention of anyone looking at an alternative to a Camry, Accord, 3 Series etc.

Even if one were to be penny pinching and tried using the supercharger as their primary charging source, it wouldn't be long before those people realize how pointless it is to visit a charger to save $6 worth of electricity.

jbunn | 2016年3月14日

Using superchargers in that fashion is not what they were intended for, and as jordanrichard correctly pointed out, it's not worth your time.

I've had my Tesla for 3 years now, and I've been in my current house for a year. That whole time I've been charging off a standard wall outlet. Yep. Just plug it in at night, and it starts charging at 11 PM when the rates go down. By 7 AM, it's had 8 hours and added 32 miles. On the weekends, power is cheap, and it charges whenever we're not driving it. That works great for us and our S60.

But here's the deal. I am an IBEW brother, and do a lot of electrical work. I've installed electric car chargers for other people. I've got a spare breaker slot in my panel at home, excess capacity, and my run to the 14-50 socket is only 3 feet. I could bang that out in an hour for 20 bucks in parts, but I haven't... It's just not that important to me. And people are surprised that a big, heavy car like a Tesla can charge off a regular wall outlet, but it does just fine.

Don't get hung up on the expense of the charger. All you need is a plug. For Tesla's with single on-board chargers a NEMA 14-50 is all you need. And unless your panel is on the back side of your house, the install is not that big of a challenge.

artC | 2016年3月14日

My 14-50 outlet was installed close to the breaker panel by an electrician for $140.

Haggy | 2016年3月14日

Gas prices will likely change during the time that a person owns any car. It's also unclear whether the average length of ownership for a Model 3 will be the same as for any other car, which is about 5 years. When I got my Model S, I was spending about $75/week on gas. Prices dropped since then, and what would have been a $3K annual savings is now about $2250, or about $187/month. Even if gas prices fall to zero, then it's not likely that a person would use enough electricity over five years to come close to the cost of the rebate/credit, so there would still be a savings.

The monthly net difference between gas and electricity is a more relevant number because it can be factored in with a car payment to see what's affordable. So let's compare two scenarios:

Scenario 1: I buy a brand new car for $14K, and have a loan payment of $239 plus gasoline costs $187/month above the cost of electricity for an EV. That gives me a total monthly payment of $426.

Scenario 2: I buy a brand new car for $35K and it comes out to $25K after tax breaks. I get a loan for $25K and have monthly payments of $427. Electricity is already factored in, since scenario one used costs above and beyond it.

Now scenario 2 might seem like a better deal because I'd be getting a $35K car instead of a $14K car, and there are no new $14K cars and if there were, they wouldn't be any good. But you also have to factor in that once the loan is paid off, I might decide to keep either car. With the ICE car, I'd spend an extra $11K on fuel over the subsequent five years compared to the Model 3. Assuming I want to save up for the gas over the first five years, I could start off with a brand new ICE for $3K, make my car payments, gas payments, and save up for gas for the next five years, all for the price of the payments on a Model 3. After 10 years, it would be about a break even. I'll assume that a car that starts out at a cost of $3K won't have much residual value and that the residual value of the Model 3 will be more than $3K, so if I go to the extreme and assume that the $3K car retained 100% of its value, then if the $35K Model 3 is worth at least $6K after a decade, I'd be better off buying it than getting a comparable ICE car for free. In other words, if the competition does drop the price of a comparable ICE car to $3K, it might be a good deal in the short term, but in the long term I'd be losing money.

So I'd say the savings would definitely be there for somebody who gets the car with tax incentives, compared to a competitor dropping the price of an ICE to a few thousand dollars. But if the rebate goes away, then it might be worth spending as much as $12K on a brand new ICE car instead of a Model 3 and expect to break even after a decade. If the competition is really around $35K, there won't be any reason to consider it. If they drop their prices to $25K, it would still cost too much. If they drop their price to free, I'd argue that I'd lose money on it if I took them up on it but some would go for the short term savings over the long term costs. So you might have trouble convincing people based on the 10 year argument. You might have to point to the five year argument with an ICE dropping in price to $14K and show that it's about break even, and then point out the low cost of ownership once the loan is paid off.

flight505 | 2016年3月14日

Not worth their time? Yes, stopping at a supercharger for free electricity is worth a lot of people's time - especially people buying a Tesla at 35K minus the tax credit and other credits and no gasoline to buy, etcetera. Many of these buyers will be counting their pennies, out to save-a-buck. Nothing wrong with that, but saving six bucks per charge 2-3-4-5 times a week will add up and motivate these buyers to SUPERCHARGE!!!!

I know people so tight they take their showers at the gym under their membership to save heating their hot water tanks at home.

If they could save $6 charging their car, they definitely would, then brag about the savings and laugh at how they drive their car for free electricity. They would make zero electricity their life's work. Tesla will be selling to the economy crowd.

My Tesla home charger station cost $750 and the electrician in this small town charged me $597 for installation. Installation is not easy. I do have a 100 amp line, which the electrician said only cost another $20 over the smaller line. He had to route the line through the attic to my garage and down the wall. Electricians don't work for cheap. When they see a turbo Porsche and a twin turbo BMW And a new Tesla P85D in my garage, I think they actually work harder with their pencils and charge more.

KP in NPT | 2016年3月14日

Yeah there are cheapos - and some of them might drive Model S now. But 35K+ options is not exactly a "cheap" car. Even with the tax credit - assuming it's around for long. I'm just trying to envision all the poor A4 and 325xi drivers out there, scraping by so much that they'll waste their time on a regular basis. Maybe because I am one, I'm having a hard time believing it's going to be an epidemic.

Sudre_ | 2016年3月14日

mp1156, jordanrichard +1

I never paid for a charging station at my house. I have a 14-50 plug 3' from the panel in my garage. Extremely cheap.

If someone is buying a 35K car (and the rebate very well might be expired) and they can't afford a <1000 for charging.... well they probably should skip the car buying part. Heck how do they afford the gas in their current car?

I think next time flight505 try explaining that the cost for the 14-50 plug is a few months worth of gas they won't be buying. They can put in a higher power charger the following year if they feel they need it with one years worth of gas savings.

jordanrichard | 2016年3月14日

flight505, what home charger? Are you talking about the HPWC? The "C" is not for charger, it stands for Connector. That is not needed, it is optional. As Jbunn said, one can use the standard 120 outlet that is probably already in their garage. I used that the first night I had the car.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年3月14日

"Six bucks a gallon! Please pay before you pump! Thank you! Come again!"

In Los Angeles, it won't take long at all.

PhillyGal | 2016年3月14日

OF COURSE people will go to the SC just to save $6 if it's still free for all.
Tesla will either increase the number of SC locations, make it not free for all, limit it after a certain point, implement a very specific education program, spell out rules on charging or some combination of those things.

It's very simple to add in the sales agreement that Supercharging provides free long distance charging for life. That alone will stop some portion of people; those who will self regulate. Beyond that Tesla could launch communications for cars that regularly charge at a SC location with xx miles of where the car is registered reminding them of the rules.

Or not. If Tesla can swing the infrastructure, maybe the won't say a word.

Only time will tell what Tesla will do but you best believe people will go out of their way and spend 45 mins charging for free electrons. I'm pretty convinced I saw a very well polished woman, who reeked of deep pockets, local charging at Greenwich.

jordanrichard | 2016年3月15日

PG, I agree that some will do that, but not as many as some are alluding to. How did you know this woman was a "local". If it is based on her CT plates, I live Northeast of Hartford and have used Greenwich a number of times. Greenwich is a little over 90 miles away and there have been a number of times I needed Greenwich to get home.

PhillyGal | 2016年3月15日

@JR - I only suspect her being a local, surely can't confirm. But she wasn't traveling in clothes one would wear on a road trip, nor did she exit her car to use the facilities or buy anything at the rest stop. That plus the CT plates.

KP in NPT | 2016年3月15日

I agree we can't assume anything about who is local or not. We don't know where they're coming from. I sometimes had stop at E. Greenwich in RI, even though it's only 20 miles from my house, on the way home from NYC. I stop there for a short time instead of charging longer (and slower) in Milford or Darien - since it's on my way home. Sometimes incorporating a stop at the grocery store there. I would hate people to think I'm abusing anything just based on my RI tags.

Silver2K | 2016年3月15日

what part of Elon saying "free for life" confusing to you people?
what part of Elon saying "you can use it for long travel or top off" confusing to you people?

these are the conversations that will slow sales, because people that don't own tesla's will see this junk and think "i guess it's not free after all" "people judging others for what is rightfully theirs"

every time this subject comes up people turn pompous and start judging others.

Silver2K | 2016年3月15日

even @mp1156 is saying " I would hate people to think I'm abusing anything just based on my RI tags "

he has the right to use the system anytime and whichever way he pleases, but the pompous people in here are making feel like he's may be doing something wrong.

PhillyGal | 2016年3月15日

@Silver - I don't think anyone on this thread gave an opinion about whether they consider it right or wrong to local charge, just whether or not people will do it.

The most reasonable opinions have been that if you want/need to local charge, it's best to use some basic etiquette. Leave when you have enough if it's crowded. Stay with your car so you can move as soon as you're done. And if you know your local charger gets busy, try to visit off peak.

danCE | 2016年3月16日

My guess is that "free-for-life" supercharging will be a $2K option on the $35K base model. And those people who don't expect to do long distance travel (2nd car, 3rd car, etc.) can forgo that option or buy it later as an addon for more.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年3月16日

No one likes buying gasoline. No one would like buying electricity to fill their car either.

Supercharger access should be FREE (of additional fees) for LIFE (the life of the car)! Just buy one. Use Superchargers as often as you like, wherever you want. Don't worry about it. But please, do be mindful of others, and do not 'hog' a space for lengthy periods of time without charging.

PhillyGal | 2016年3月16日

@Red, I especially hated buying gas today when I clearly said "fifteen on four" and had to walk BACK IN to the damn gash station to ask why it wasn't pumping. I was accused of having said "fifteen on seven."

This fill up definitely took more than 5 minutes.

jordanrichard | 2016年3月16日

I ask the following in all sincerity, meaning I am not trying to be a smart ass.

It is fact that Elon said that the Model ≡ will have free supercharger access. For those that keep saying/proposing that there will be a one time charge, then what do you think Elon meant by "FREE".

For 70 kwh and up owners, the old $2000 fee was built into the price. So it was considered FREE, meaning no additional costs. So again, what then do you think Elon meant when speaking about the Model ≡?

danCE | 2016年3月16日

"The Model 3 will have free supercharger access for life" doesn't automatically imply that it's a standard feature of every shipped car. It could certainly be an option on the base model.

I'm sure we'll find out on the 31st.

SUN 2 DRV | 2016年3月16日

Jordan: The obvious possibility is that ENABLING SC functionality could be a paid for option, but that SC ACCESS would then be at no additional charge. Exactly the way the Model S worked back in the beginning.

It would allow Tesla to offer a lower priced version of the Model 3, and a lower price IS one of its top two features. Not everyone wants to have $2,000 of prepaid fuel included in the price of their car. So it's certainly a believable possibility to me...

I don't know if that will be the case or not, but it's exactly how Tesla managed this once before.

flight505 | 2016年3月16日

With millions of EV's will come many thousands more charging stations, Tesla and non-Tesla.

Is Tesla creating the new paradigm for new car buyers - cost of fuel comes with car?

The Volt will have no such network, so who would want a Volt over a Model 3 Tesla, especially when the Tesla is not that much more expensive than a Volt.

What could a free supercharger network for one specific make, Tesla, do for resale values?

Would GM and Ford follow with more free electricity?

What would free "gas" (i.e. electricity) do to the gasoline market?

Just the idea of free gas with a new car makes some people euphoric.

EV sales could skyrocket and disrupt the ICE car market.

Just what is going on here?

Haggy | 2016年3月16日

I hope Tesla addresses this up front. If they work out pricing details for options near the time it's ready for production, there will be some who will claim that Tesla's claim of a $35K mass market car was disingenuous.

SUN 2 DRV | 2016年3月16日

If I remember correctly the Model X option pricing wasn't announced even to reservation holders until well after the launch event and after they'd already started shipping the high end bundled cars.

And even still now the Model X option pricing is only disclosed to reservationists then they are selected to configure their cars.

Tstolz | 2016年3月16日

Interestingly if you do the math plugging in to 120 volts would work for most people for day to day driving (albeit not the most efficient way to charge) .. then just top up at Superchargers as needed. I think model 3 could work for a very large group of people!

KP in NPT | 2016年3月16日

True @Joehuber. I check from time to time to see how much my dream X would cost and still, not able. I hope they handle the 3 much differently.

jordanrichard | 2016年3月17日

joehuber, well hell with that logic, my 1983 Porsche 911 has FREE access to the superchargers. Hell, a guy walking his dog has access to the chargers. "Access" and "usage" are the same thing.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年3月17日

joehuber wrote, "Not everyone wants to have $2,000 of prepaid fuel included in the price of their car."

In Los Angeles, $2,000 will currently get you about 800 gallons of gasoline. In a car that literally gets 50 MPG, that will take you pretty far... Around 40,000 miles. But, if you have a long commute to and from work, that may work out to around 16 months worth of fuel. Meanwhile, the person in the 100 MPGe Tesla Model ≡ can keep driving ad infinitum using Superchargers. Luckily for the petroleum industry, Americans are desperately afraid of mathematics.

pacalis | 2016年3月17日

Are people in the market for this car really that horrified with a $750 wall charger? Isn't this supposed to be a 3-series competitor? Because I'm horrified about the price of BMW rims and the wall charger is way cheaper than those.

SUN 2 DRV | 2016年3月17日

Jordan: That logic isn't mine, it's Tesla's. The main point is that that is EXACTLY how Tesla handled charging for Supercharging when the Model S was introduced.

Base models had Supercharging as a paid for option and then it was Free to use for life.

And it's not unreasonable for some folks to consider that Tesla may handle it exactly the same way again. It doesn't conflict with Elon's comments about Free supercharging for the Model 3.

SUN 2 DRV | 2016年3月17日

Red +1 LOL

Many folks are indeed afraid of mathematics and they also prefer lower upfront costs even if the long term costs are higher. Personally I like math and low TCO... :-)

PhillyGal | 2016年3月17日

@pacalis - I don't have a HPWC because of the price ($1500 at the time), and I'm a Model S owner. So yes, some (if not many) Model 3 owners will be put off by the price of the HPWC.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年3月17日

joehuber wrote, "And it's not unreasonable for some folks to consider that Tesla may handle it exactly the same way again. It doesn't conflict with Elon's comments about Free supercharging for the Model 3."

OK. What I find 'unreasonable' is assumptions that the Model ≡ will have a very tiny battery pack for the base version. People have repeatedly suggested that as a 'solution' to getting the car to come in at $35,000. They have suggested, multiple times, that a battery pack as small as 40 kWh, 48 k Wh, 50 kWh, or 55 kWh would be sufficient to get an EPA rating of 200 miles range. Some have even gone so far to argue against the absolute necessity of a 200 mile range, saying that 170-to-180 miles would be 'close enough'. They have also said that these low capacity versions of the car would also have no need of Supercharger access. People who make such suggestions also indicate a heartfelt belief that Model ≡ should be a front wheel drive econobox, perhaps of the form factor of a Volkswagen Golf. They continue to argue that Tesla Motors' emphasis on Performance is wasteful and that their cars should be tuned to get 'more range' instead.

So please understand that when I argue that Supercharger access will be included by default, I am in fact arguing against ALL of that. This is why I presume that the smallest capacity might be a 60 kWh battery pack. That was shown to allow an EPA rating of 208 miles in the Model S 60. I expect that a Model ≡ 60 would get 225-to-250 miles as an EPA range rating. I expect that the base version of the car would have 300+ HP and 300+ lb-ft torque as well -- because that is what the Model S 60 got. Thus, the base version of Model ≡ could have Performance rivaling the BMW 340i, though priced as low as the 320i -- making it an absolute bargain.

I do concede that in this situation, a Model ≡ 60 might require an additional one-time fee to activate Supercharger access, either at the time of ordering, or after taking delivery. But I place the emphasis on ~*MIGHT*~ there, and only because that is how it was handled with Model S 60. However, I predicted way back in 2014 that the Model S 60 would go away ahead of the release of Model ≡. I guessed way back then that all Tesla Motors products would be Supercharger enabled by default from that point forward. And so far, that has been the case. I strongly suspect that Tesla will not take a step backward by bringing back a reactivation fee for Supercharger access. Because honestly, it is just simpler, and easier, to just make it part of the cars by default, so there is no question to be asked or answered.

Hi_Tech | 2016年3月17日

I think the path Tesla Motors needs to go is a mixture of the following:
1. Continue increasing the number of supercharge locations through 2016 (with each new location holding 8+ chargers)
2. Start upgrading the older locations to have 8+ chargers per location
3. For Model 3 - $2k fee for supercharge access, then free for life (maybe throw in some options that PhillyGal mentioned above)

SUN 2 DRV | 2016年3月17日

Red: I don't disagree with your premise. But I do think Tesla wants to have a range of capabilities to achieve both cost and margin goals. So I think there may be more optionality, and the base model may come in lower than you'd like. Supercharging is a perfect thing to make optional since it can be easily "Enabled" later, thus allowing a cost sensitive buyer to save $2k and more easily get into a M3.

flight505 | 2016年3月18日

Musk likes to impress and I think the Model 3 will be a big surprise.

sp_tesla | 2016年3月18日

"flight505 | March 18, 2016
Musk likes to impress and I think the Model 3 will be a big surprise."

True, also design team very experience with non luxury cars, this will be a home run.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年3月18日

joehuber: As I've pointed out in other threads, the base version of the Model ≡ will be sufficiently profitable without a fee for Supercharger access even if it costs them as much as $32,900 to build a car they sell for $35,000. There is no need for 'optionality' (is that really a word?) to bring the costs down, either internally or at retail. I suspect that Tesla Motors is aiming to keep their internal build cost at no more than $30,800 for the base car. That would make a $35,000 car 12% profitable -- twice the automotive industry average -- from the very start. The Model ≡ does not need a lower starting price point. $35,000 is just fine, and entirely appropriate with the given market segment.

Rocky_H | 2016年3月18日

@Roamer, Quote: "You may see a completly new SC access system since many buyers in this price range won't have easy access to home charging. "

Whenever I hear this thinking, it seems incorrect from my gut and my experience. It seems like “big city” mindset that doesn’t think about the big portion of the U.S. population that doesn’t live in huge cities or on the coasts.

I have lived in some smaller towns that are not dense urban areas, and the vast majority of the dwellings are houses. Most people of medium means have houses, and I think that is the main market that the Model 3 will be opening up, not apartment dwellers. Apartment dwellers in these regular towns are lower income. I think this is where some of this forum’s upper class perspective is out of touch. They think that the people in houses buy the $80K+ Model S, and the lower income people (apartment dwellers) will be buying the $40K Model 3. I’m sorry to say, I think that is a skewed perspective on income for this country. This is possibly because you live in places where houses cost $500,000 and up. In other more normal places in flyover country, houses cost more like $150K to $250K. In those areas, people in houses can buy a $40K car, but not afford an $80K car, and apartment dwelling people buy used cars at less than $20K.

@Roamer, I think you’re a realtor, right? I thought housing and income statistics back up my position that the Model 3 price point is far more inline with people in houses, and people in apartments are usually farther below this car price point.

JeffreyR | 2016年3月18日

@Rock_H
I think apartment concept is more urban thinking than anything else. In the Bay Area there's a large population that lives in high-density housing (apartments, condos, and townhouses). I'm lucky that my HOA is already planning on EV charging.

Rocky_H | 2016年3月18日

@JeffreyR, Yeah, I think so. I would hate to live in a city that big. Where I live, in Boise, I know hundreds of people. I can't think of a single one that lives in an apartment.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年3月18日

Rocky_H and JeffreyR: I believe you are both correct. I do not expect the majority of new car buyers in the US are apartment dwellers. I am certain that most of them live in single residency detached homes. And those homes can easily have a NEMA 14-50 outlet installed at the exterior, or in the garage.

Sure, there may be a certain minority percentage of trendy people who live in a particular section of a large town within condominium complexes and lease the latest cars which they believe they can afford to 'make the payments' on but may not have the ability to charge at home... Doesn't matter. They won't be a problem.

SamO | 2016年3月18日

OMFG . . . this Supercharging zombie thread seems to resurrect from the dead every few weeks. Such sweet handwringing from people that (most likely) have never seen a local, a Supercharger or had to wait a single minute.

Let's bring a few things to the front:

1. Supercharging is for long distance AND for people without access to home charging. If you need a citation for this, please read the dozens of threads that came before.

2. Supercharging will be free until there are 1,000,000 cars on the road (per JB Straubel).

3. Locals can use local Superchargers as needed, and with all due courtesy to other owners/drivers

4. I'd bet that most posting here have NEVER RUN INTO A 'LOCAL' . . . but hey, wring your hands some more, because maybe . . .

5. More likely, you've run into a crowd of non-locals on a busy charging day. How do I know? Because I've visited 70 Superchargers and all of the chargers between San Diego and San Francisco . . . they are often busy and NOT WITH LOCALS.

6. If charging is such a great business why are the Destination Chargers (HPWC) free to patrons?

Go take a drive. When you get to the first Supercharger, question the other drivers (if you find any).

Red Sage ca us | 2016年3月18日

SamO: +1! Here, let me help, eh?

[/RANT]

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