Would you cancel your reservation if you don't get your tax rebate?

Would you cancel your reservation if you don't get your tax rebate?

I'm sure part of the reason for the craziness is the $7500 ($10k for california) back from the government. However, there will be over 100k reservations for a model 3, the potential of many will not get the full tax incentives will be very high. If that is true, what's the odds of a lot of these reservation bailing?

Many of us will probably add options that will probably make the M3 low $40's at this price, it's half of the MS but is it still a $40k EV with very short time liability report history?

NKYTA | 2016年3月31日


Mireille and Conan | 2016年3月31日


Captain_Zap | 2016年3月31日

No. The car would still be a steal.

KP in NPT | 2016年3月31日


JeffreyR | 2016年3月31日


Don't forget the tax incentives don't stop at 200k, they step down over a year after the threshold is reached. You can volkerize the details.

dannieboiz | 2016年3月31日

OK, I feel better now that I'm in the majority and not the minority group. LOL

Haggy | 2016年3月31日

Also remember that about half of all cars go overseas so if you look at the number of cars produced to date, it's not likely to be a problem. If you assume that a similar portion of reservations made today were from overseas, which is fair considering that there's a history of that level of demand, then 100,000 reservations wouldn't put anything over the line.

If you did by some chance find yourself ineligible, you will have to consider whatever is said at the event tonight. I'm expecting something that can compete well with $35K cars and will be superior to them, not something that is trying to compete with $25K cars. So although the tax incentives help, I'd definitely buy the car anyway if it ends up being what we expect.

Given how few people in line today were current owners, I suspect that getting the tax credits went a long way toward getting them to line up. I saw extremely few Teslas in the parking lot today, and my wife told me that a coworker put down a deposit today and she was one of three (by a show of hands) among hundreds in line at her location.

bj | 2016年3月31日

No, because there are no tax incentives in Australia for EVs.

atm2626 | 2016年3月31日

Just out of can you even answer this question? Also, how can you say it's a steal at $35k? The car hasn't been revealed. I think I'll have to wait for it to be revealed to answer the question.

That being said, I would agree with what Haggy said. Given the number of people who lined up...I think a lot of people are really banking on the tax credit and can hamper their decision...

Tersalita | 2016年3月31日

No, I wouldn't cancel if I don't get the Federal Tax Credit. I'm not budgeting for the credit so if I get it great - if not, no big deal.

dsvick | 2016年3月31日

And, I don't think you'll know if you'll be getting the tax credit in time to cancel anyway.

Captain_Zap | 2016年3月31日


Because I have a Model S and I know the tech they use.

dannieboiz | 2016年3月31日

We also have to consider those that are buying this vehicle as a primary vehicle and can only afford 1 vehicle.Andt those that are buying this just because they can may not feel the pinch. But there are some that also rely on the tax credit as a form recovery from the down payment might think differently. The model S was a luxury this is for the mass market so you gotta buy it like you're buying a Honda or Toyota. $40k is a lot of money in any standard, it's not an investment but you gotta ask is it going to be a good buy.

Hi_Tech | 2016年3月31日

No, though I'm more than happy to not pay as much of MY HARD EARNED MONEY as I can get away with legally. :-)

Xerogas | 2016年3月31日


jaffray | 2016年3月31日

Depends on what we see, right? I wouldn't have stood around in line for three hours if I didn't think it LIKELY that I'd want to buy a Model 3, but we know hardly anything about it. Availability of the tax credit is one of many factors that'll determine whether I buy one. (Or more than one.)

Aside from pricing and range, one big thing we haven't heard about is the warranty... I drive 50k miles/year, whether or not they continue the Model S unlimited-mile drivetrain warranty for the Model 3 is of huge importance to me.

DC@Tesla | 2016年3月31日

Tax rebate of course will be part of the equation for such a big purchase. Model 3 needs to be a very compelling vehicle, superior to ICE at same price/ownership cost.

Eric | 2016年3月31日

Nope. Tax credits are part of the decision of how much of a model 3 to buy. Not whether to buy one at all.

chrispga | 2016年3月31日

Nope, I wasn't expecting a rebate. The front of the car looks like a Porche or Ferrari. The interior is beautiful and a minimum of 215 miles per charge. Supercharging included. Done deal. Preordered this morning and I'm just waiting to configure and take delivery.

sharkbiteattack | 2016年3月31日

I was counting on getting the rebate and would most likely cancel if I don't get the rebate. Still, alot can happen in the next 2 years.

ssarker | 2016年4月1日

I would not cancel my reservation if there no or a smaller federal rebate. It did seem to be a concern for a few people around me in line yesterday.

Nexxus | 2016年4月1日

Nope, I want the car!!!

joan | 2016年4月1日

Nope. The tax credit would be nice but I'm really looking forward to owning one!

up north | 2016年4月1日

No don't need a tax break, Iv wanted this car for 68 years.

jchangyy | 2016年4月1日

Yes. I will likely cancel without the rebate. Rebate was nice for my model S.

swingshiftworker | 2016年4月1日

No. I don't have that much taxable income to make full use of the tax credit.

thegreatbeard | 2016年4月1日

Yes, even though I really would like a Tesla.

eddiemoy | 2016年4月1日

you don't get the tax credit if you are hit by AMT

ilovechem | 2016年4月1日

yes, assuming I could get a similar equipped and performing Bolt for about $10K less I would probably go for the GM product (I also prefer the hatch configuration to the sedan)

RVC | 2016年4月1日


Roamer@AZ USA | 2016年4月1日

Not a factor. The phase out period starts after 200,000 domestic US sales. Sadly there is no way to know the current US sales numbers because for some reason Tesla chooses to be out of compliance with the IRS regulation and does not report sales.

stevenmaifert | 2016年4月1日

@eddiemoy - Reference please. That's true about the Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit but AFAIK, the AMT does not apply to the Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit.

eddiemoy | 2016年4月1日

"In addition, some tax credits that reduce regular tax liability do not reduce AMT tax liability."

Also got same from tax consultant...

HenryT2 | 2016年4月2日

No. BUUUTTTTT... it's 200,000 per manufacturer.

Let's say that other car manufacturers got their heads out of their collective *sses and started producing decent electric cars (say like a Bolt, but one that isn't quite as hideously ugly). I might be tempted to buy one of those for a lot less. But that's only if they could produce one 90% as good for 80% of the cost.

stevenmaifert | 2016年4月2日

@eddiemoy - The AMT ensures high income folks with lots of deductions pay at least some minimum tax. Tax credits are applied against that minimum tax. If a tax credit is subject to reduction by the AMT, it will be clearly established on the IRS form and the instructions for that form. That is the case with the Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit form and instructions. That is not the case with the Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit. That credit is subject to reduction if you claim any of the Foreign tax credit, Credit for child and dependent care expenses, Education credits, and Retirement savings contributions credit but that has nothing to do with the AMT.

steve.bareman | 2016年4月2日

I would NOT cancel, and I am expecting I was too late (8:30am 4/1) to get the refund. Now, might I be interested in writing my legislators to extend some level of refund beyond 200k? Yes, Yes I am.

mhembruch | 2016年4月2日

I'm sure there will be some speculation and/or person counting how many (roughly) have been sold. If it looks like I won't get my credit, I'll probably look elsewhere, unless they end up offering a "ludicrous" version..

mikedomingos1 | 2016年4月2日

Nope no way :) Also you have to remember Tesla does have the option of going back to the Gov't and asking for an extension to the $7500 rebate which more than likely will occur since it's such a success and it would look bad on Gov't to say no to a GIANT emerging industry.
Also important and not sure if anyone has mentioned this but depending on what county (not country) you live in you may get additional money so contact you local air quality control district office and ask. I know here in California I live in the Central Valley and we will get not only the $7500 federal but the $2500 California and an additional $2500 from San Joaquin Air Quality offices!!! Hope that helps!

farrell_reis | 2016年4月17日

No!! would be nice to have but not a deal breaker

warren_tran | 2016年4月17日

I'm disappointed that many are not cancelling their order.

george210 | 2016年4月17日


Haggy | 2016年4月17日

"you don't get the tax credit if you are hit by AMT"

That would be true of the credit for EV charging equipment, but won't apply to the $7500 credit. I'm 100% sure of it and am subject to AMT big time.

As for knowing how the Model 3 will compare to other cars in its price range, all we can do is look at Tesla's history. The Model S outsells anything in its class and competes well on price alone. It's cheaper than the Mercedes S class, and if you go to the Model S forum, you will find plenty of owners who have both or used to have a Mercedes S class. The consensus is pretty clear.

chrispga | 2016年4月17日

No sir, I'll be one of the first to drive a Tesla Model 3 on the streets of NYC. I'll take full advantage of that supercharger network. Stay tuned.

tesla | 2016年4月17日


I have my income structured in such a way that I could not take advantage of the bulk of the Fed (and State) rebates. I am actually looking into a lease to counter that.

But regardless,

SCCRENDO | 2016年4月17日

The rebate is not impacted by AMT. Its a credit after all taxes are worked out. I am subject to AMT and got the full credit. The only stipulation is that you need to have to pay more than $7500 in taxes. Otherwise you only get credit for the total amount you would have had to pay.

SCCRENDO | 2016年4月17日

The rebate is not impacted by AMT. Its a credit after all taxes are worked out. I am subject to AMT and got the full credit. The only stipulation is that you need to have to pay more than $7500 in taxes. Otherwise you only get credit for the total amount you would have had to pay.

godsdrummer1948 | 2016年4月18日

I probably would not cancel, BUT (being 6' 2", 240lbs), if I got the chance to test drive one before I signed the purchase order and it was too small, I probably would cancel.

Chargedmr2 | 2016年4月18日

No, Model 3 appears competitive as priced. No tax credit needed for that.

damonmath | 2016年4月18日


swingshiftworker | 2016年4月18日

It has been reported that more than 40% of buyers interested in a Model 3 would NOT buy it without the tax credit.

Have to assume that includes all of the people who but a deposit on one which means that potential number of US sales of the Model 3 would have be discounted by that amount if the tax credit is no longer available to Tesla by the time the Model 3 hits the market.