11 Years of Bolt Sales in 1 Week

11 Years of Bolt Sales in 1 Week

GM's bragging about being first to market with a 200 mile/$37.5k BEV is worrisome.

Tesla amassed 325,000 Model 3 reservations in one week. GM would need nearly 11 years to sell this many Bolts due to their 30,000/year production cap.

GM has no interest in BEV's or changing the world for the better; they only care about headlines and stopping Tesla from succeeding.

I'm really beginning to dislike their management and marketing strategies.

Hi_Tech | 2016年4月13日

Just for clarity, where are we getting the 30k/year production rate from? I understand that GM stated that was their goal in the beginning, but wondering if we, Tesla Kool-aide drinkers, are ignoring something. Do we know that GM is planning on 30k/year max? (though, I doubt they'll reach that amount in 2017)

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月13日

HiteshBhatt: I believe the 30,000 number for Chevrolet BOLT Production was from General Motors' press releases. I had a link or two, but it's not worth looking up.

JeffreyR | 2016年4月13日

It was a story about their battery supply. Later GM said they will not be limited and will get more batteries if they need them. Not sure what they'll do when M≡ eats there lunch in 18-24 months.

Superliner | 2016年4月13日

I think Tesla might find it more difficult to ramp up to the required production levels in a 1-2 year timeframe than it would appear. My fear is that it may take them 3+ Years just to fill the orders on the table as of today once production begins. Hitting a 100k / Yr. run rate would need to be approx. 2,000 cars per week annualized of M3 production "only" All while getting M/S and M/X out the door in any meaningful quantities. Anyone who has not already reserved a M/3 may well be looking at 3 - 4+ years out or more, before seeing their car (if reserved "today")

I sure hope they have an easy button because this is going to be a heavy lift.

Tropopause | 2016年4月13日

This is the latest info I could find regarding Bolt production rate:

"However by reading between the lines of the statement, our take is that GM will test initial demand before allocating a 50,000 vehicle run rate, and that initial production capacity will still be set at about 2,000-2,500 units per month out of the gate. You do have to start somewhere right?"

PhillyGal | 2016年4月13日

I agree that they won't limit production... I think demand will limit it for them.

But if it doesn't and more than 50k people want the car up front, it'll be interesting to see whether or not Chevy will actually meet the demand.

jordanrichard | 2016年4月13日

and remember folks, that demand is on the part of the dealers. How many stories have we heard about dealers not wanting to sell the Volt. What is going to make those dealers want to sell the Bolt that won't require any ICE maintenance.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月13日

The response that Tesla Motors has received only proves that Elon Musk was not insane to say they needed the Gigafactory. This is the sort of thing I tend to file under 'DUH', but for some reason pundits and talking heads never understood. At this point, Tesla Motors simply have to accelerate, and perhaps enhance, the plans they already had in place. None of it will be easy, because none of it was easy to begin with...

I don't expect that new orders will be backordered for three-to-four years at the current level of Reservations. More likely it will end up with a three or four year backorder for three or four times this amount. At least Tesla Motors knows they definitely do NOT need an 'independent franchised dealership' network or a massive advertising campaign to move their cars. For the past two years I have been telling people they would not be needed, and it seems that finally those who kept saying there was 'no way' to go mass market without using those means may realize they are wrong.

David N | 2016年4月13日

GM has no intention of getting into the EV business. Their EV vehicles are most likely only offered to gain EV credits so they can continue to manufacture their large gas guzzling vehicles.
The remarks made yesterday simple reaffirm that they have no clue.

Haggy | 2016年4月13日

I don't think that Tesla will eat into their sales. People who want a small crossover, as GM calls it, aren't going to be shopping for a Model 3 in the first place. The question will be whether people are willing to go electric. Having many Teslas on the road might increase the chances that people would consider an EV from GM or anybody else.

I think GM's real competition will be the Leaf. Nissan isn't standing still, and they might have the range and price by then, and have more experience under their belt.

JeffreyR | 2016年4月13日

I totally get why you would say Nissan is more competition for the Bolt. I just wonder how many people would take the bird-in-hand approach for a city car w/ okay looks and okay performance over the Bimmer-killer that is the Model ≡. It's hard for me to imagine partly bc. I was never looking that way. I've seen a few folks talk about leasing a Bolt while waiting on their M≡.
I'll guess we'll find out if Bolt sales never take off or if they drop off once the M≡ production hits its stride.

David Trushin | 2016年4月14日

I don't think tesla will miss on production capacity. At least not by too much. The factory space they have in fremont was sufficient to manufacture 500,000 toyotas a year after all. Just a matter of getting and installing enough lines to meet the capacity. The hidden issue is the need for more service center capacity. Villa Park in Illinois just went to a second shift and that was only for ms anc mx deliveries plus repairs. I would guess that Chicago is going to need at least 4 or 5 more service centers to support their share of 300,000 deliveries. That could be a lot harder to deal with than production.

kzodz | 2016年4月14日

Am I the only one getting tired of people belittling the competition? Please keep in mind that the Bolt is a product that will be released this year. It is a real car based on todays economics (and possibly their willingness to take a short term loss). It is blatantly ridiculous to compare a car that is going into production with a concept car of the unkown 'future'. The model X was @2 years late and they still haven't been able to contain problems or ramp up production to meet demand. The Tesla love on display here is beyond drinking the kool-ade and borders on mental illness with plenty of delusions on display. i.e. Teska might release the car ahead of schedule, Auto Pilot and Supercharging will be 100% free forever, etc, etc...
I respect GM for releasing an EV today with the respectable range that the market craves. Unfortunately, the company had a despicable history behind them, and the car looks like an econo-box, so I have no interest. in doing business with them.

Hi_Tech | 2016年4月14日

Reading the above points, brought up a new idea to mind:
Analysis of GM's Bolt sales through 2017 will be very important for Tesla's case against the dealerships!

Let me explain: As Tesla had over 300k reservations within a week and will be higher over a period of one year, Tesla could argue that there is a demand for good decent range EVs. Therefore, GM should have been able to sell through all production levels... but, if they don't, then Tesla can show that the bottleneck to these sales are the dealerships, therefore the Fed Gov't should mandate law changes which would supersede state dealership protection laws.

Okay, just picturing things out... without any legal experience. :-)

Hi_Tech | 2016年4月14日

@kzod - Interesting how you end your message with negative comments about "the competition". ;-)

Hi_Tech | 2016年4月14日

@kzod - Another thing, GM's Bolt is about as real as Tesla's Model 3. Neither are on the market yet. They are both assumptions. Also, since you use Tesla's past to show all are mentally ill to expect success for Model 3, then let me raise the point that GM has been hugely unsuccessful with their experience in EVs. Should that make anyone supporting GM mentally ill as well?

Try to be fair on both side my friend. ;-)

kzodz | 2016年4月14日

Not blasting the product though. The Bolt looks promising, and I absolutely love the BMW i3, except for the fact that it's RWD and range limited without adding a gas engine. But, if I find the right deal I very well might buy a BMW in the interim. My point is that the Model 3 at this point is more of a fantasy or a dream than an actual product. It's like comparing the Tesla 3 to the Jetson's car (which it resembles in many ways). The competition is offering real cars today(ish) based on current costs., Tesla won't even start getting production ready until we reach a point where they feel costs on these things will be more reasonable.

Hi_Tech | 2016年4月14日

Tesla does have real functional and successful products on the road now.
GM Bolt is about as "real" as the Model 3. If you are saying the Volt and Leaf and i3 are what you mean, then there is also Model S and X.... yes, different class, but what really exists out there. Anything not being produced is future plans. We know nothing about those, except what few bits of info we've been told.

Hi_Tech | 2016年4月14日

Also, the Tesla supercharger and destination charger network is not fictitious. That is real. Therefore, the Model 3, when it comes out, will have a cross-country range. Unlike a Bolt or i3 or Leaf.

Again, most here don't bash competition for their lack of product. It's their lack of vision. GM has stated they will not create a fast charging network. Therefore the 200 mile range is effectively a round trip = 100 mile distance from home.

finman100 | 2016年4月14日

Here in the PNW, even though CCS fast chargers are fewer than would still be possible to do some longish tripsin a Bolt. I certainly have, 70 miles at a time, but I am really, really excited about no gasoline travel! I'm not going across the country, but within the region. One has to plan time for charging and hunt for and hope for operational DC chargers.

The mass market will NOT do that, but maybe enough 'second-wave' (my term) EVers will. If anything, my 2 years of Leaf experience has shown the Supercharger network to be WAY, WAY above and beyond the single stall Chademo network that exists. CCS (the Bolt fast charge protocol) is in that same boat, but even fewer locations (so far). The mass market will not be hunting and waiting for one slow "quick charge" station when across the street, several Model 3s are in and out in 20-30 min, ready for another 200 mile sprint. and the next stop is ready and functional, just like the gas stations we are trying to replace.

All it will take is word of mouth that "my Model 3 has replaced my gas car completely and no worries, I can go anywhere". Once that kind of advertising hits the Bolt drivers...

jordanrichard | 2016年4月14日

kzod, if you review all the remarks made which you apparently have, you will see that we are not bashing the Bolt as a car. We are bashing GM and all their hyperbole over the Bolt plus their business practices past and present. If you really belief the Bolt is on the market today, go to your local Chevy dealer and try to go for a test drive.

GM touts the Bolt as the first mass market EV with long range. So while they are patting themselves on the back and making the general public believe they are so great to do so, they are not telling you that it is just another puttzing around town/state car. Notice, I am not bashing the car, it is GM's rhetoric.

If I were to choose between the Bolt and i3, I would take the Bolt and I think most of us "kool-aid" drinkers here would do the same.

Haggy | 2016年4月14日

People might take the Bolt over the Model 3 for the same reason some people buy a Honda Fit instead of a VW Passat for the same money. Which one will let you take a rocking chair home with you? There's already a market for Bolt-shaped vehicles. There's a market for sedans.

kzodz | 2016年4月14日

I'm very suprised! You can get a Passat for the same amount of cash as a Honda Fit? Impressed.

Guys, I'm obviously no Bolt/GM fan or else I wouldn't have put down a reservation and $1,000 in cash. Ok, it was a credit card, but saying cash sounds cooler. But, you have to realize that we have no clue when this car may actually come out or get delivered to us. But, if Tesla comes close to meeting their raised expectations I want one whenever it actually comes. In the meantime cars like the i3, Leaf, and maybe the Volt are the only one's making cars you can hope to drive next week.

Darthamerica | 2016年4月14日

People are underestimating the competition. Believe it or not there are people who don't even know what a Model 3 is. Some who know of it think it's the price of Model S.

Haggy | 2016年4月14日

The Honda Fit has a big range of prices and options.

deeageux | 2016年4月14日

Bolt goes into production this year and will begin to trickle into California dealerships next year but will not be widely available until March or so. Look at the Volt. That is not an all new vehicle but a 2nd generation vehicle and it has taken that long to get into wide release.

Bolt is a subcompact tall wagon not an CUV. It has plenty of room above and around your head but not a lot of shoulder, hip or leg room. It has ample cargo room that is narrow and high but much of its interior volume is useless.

And no access to a global 120+ kWh fast charging network.

Model 3 is a compact luxury(with apologies to RedSage) sports sedan with access to a global fast charging network. One is a premium brand one is a mass market brand. The premium brand offering being cheaper.

People that are ignorant of Tesla and Model 3 are not going to buy a $35k plus BEV any time soon from any OEM. People that are buying $35k plus BEVs are early adopters/early majority buyers that research major purchases on the net to the Nth degree. Only a tiny insignificant number of BEV buyers just happened to walk into a dealership, happened to see a BEV for sale and made an impulse buy.

jordanrichard | 2016年4月14日

Obviously I don't have numbers to back this up, but I am willing to bet that a vast majority of the M≡ reservations are in CA. A state where the MS is often referred to as a California Camry. Ya, the Bolt will be a great success in CA........The mere fact that they are only going to send the Bolts to CA at first, tells you they are doing this to meet some mandate . Yes, I know the Model≡ will be delivered first to the West coast, but Tesla's are made there, so logistically it makes sense.

Haggy | 2016年4月15日

It would make sense for them to send Bolts to California first and see if they can compete with Leafs. GM is better off not shipping too many to dealerships, and doing what they can to keep inventory moving. With the Volt, many dealers had them sitting on their lots unsold. Then GM improved the Volt in a number of ways. For example, the range went from 38 miles to 53 miles. When there are vehicles on a dealer's lot that aren't selling and a new model comes out that's much better and similar in price, I don't know how they can clear out the old ones or give dealers incentive to stock new ones when they still have old ones to get rid of.

Nexxus | 2016年4月15日

People are forgetting that fully 75% of the Freemont factory is available to accommodate the Model ≡ build. My guess, they will assemble the Model ≡ on four separate lines that feed into the paint lines currently used for the Model S/X. Maybe they make more paint lines available just for the Model ≡. Some form of this scenario will come to pass so they can get up to speed quickly once production starts and they'll tweek the lines to maximize output. They will need to at least run a second shift on the assembly line and maybe a third shift as well.

ColoDriver | 2016年4月15日


Funny you should mention people walking into a dealership and buying a BEV unplanned. My girlfriend was looking to replace a Mini Cooper and liked the looks of the Ford Fusion. We went to a dealer and saw the Fusion, the Fusion hybrid and the Fusion Energi plug-in hybrid. Most of what the salesman knew about the Energi was wrong. After driving all three she bought the Energi because the 30 mile range is enough for 80% of her driving and it's much smoother and quieter on battery. It's also about the same price as I expect the Model 3 I've reserved to cost. Which would you rather have, a 30 mile battery range on Fusion or 200+ on a Model 3? I made my choice and now she's thinking we should have reserved two cars.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月15日

ColoDriver: Well, the good news is that the Fusion Energi is probably a better car than the BOLT will be...

dyefrog | 2016年4月15日

"I absolutely love the BMW i3, except for the fact that it's RWD","Guys, I'm obviously no Bolt/GM fan or else I wouldn't have put down a reservation and $1,000 in cash."
Did you know the model ≡ is rear wheel drive?

rickabe | 2016年4月15日

Just curious if any of you have actually driven a Volt? Please chime in....

mos6507 | 2016年4月15日

I took a test-drive in a Gen 2 Volt in the fall. It was my first time in an EV so I have nothing to compare it to, but it was pretty neat. I would have bought one if I were disappointed enough in the Model 3 reveal.

Voltec feels more and more like bridge technology, a crutch on the way to pure BEVs. It seemed like a brilliant idea at the time because batteries were more expensive and there was no fast-charging infrastructure. For the moment it's still viable but I'm not sure if it has a very long future anymore.

Chevy Volt list price is $33-37K. If long-range BEVs were still $60K and above, that seems worth the money, but if we're entering into a regime of 200+mile range BEVs with fast-charging at around the same price, then I think the value-proposition of the Volt goes down quite a bit. Also, 0-60 on the Gen 2 volt is rated at around 7 seconds. It's not bad but it's no Tesla.

If I hadn't stood in line on the 31st I might consider a 3-year lease on the Volt to kill time on a late reservation, but I'm pretty sure I'll get my Model 3 around this time in 2018.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月15日
clpx123 | 2016年4月16日

GM is is doing this the same as when they switched from using carb to fuel injection. Anyone remember what a pain those electronic carbs where? I wanted to test drive a Volt but the dealer here doesn't carry any. The nearest one was 1 hour away...and they had one in stock. Don't know about you guys but I'm not driving an hour to test drive a car. Also as mentioned in the comments above, without a fast charging network the Bolt is a $37,000 short range car. In MN maybe the Twin long as you don't plan on driving more than 60-80 miles from home it will work. With a Tesla there are several Superchargers spread out. I could drive across the state with a 200 mile range in one day...not possible in the Bolt with a 8 hour+ recharge time. I reserved mine on-line before the reveal....I can wait into 2018 also. Just gives me more time to save for a bigger down payment for lower monthly payments. This will be my first new car also...not worried at all. I don't think Tesla will take their cars back and crush them like GM did.

shepbob | 2016年4月16日

Someone up above commented that a Bolt would be a great car if you wanted to bring a rocking chair home.

Having a Model S in my garage removes all thoughts of a freakin' rocking chair. Ever.

cephellow | 2016年4月16日

Don't know how a dealer is going to sell a 37k bolt when on the same floor there will be a Malibu Hybrid for 10K less that gets 46mpg and will haul everything you own. If the buyer is intent on getting only a BEV, then they have probably done their research and would wait for the Tesla- since the Tesla is way cooler than the Bolt, or Lease the Bolt while waiting for the Tesla. I'm tempted myself to lease a Bolt just so I can get my hands on one out of curiosity.

Haggy | 2016年4月16日

A lot of people would take a Fusion over a Model 3. As of now, most people don't have a clue about real world use and would figure that if 30 miles is enough for most days, and an ICE would always be there as a backup, they will never get stranded. The reality is that there's a certain type of person who drives until the needle is on empty, and nothing will change that. Somebody like that will see that the Fusion is on empty but figure it can be plugged in at home and that will leave plenty of time to get to a gas station later. But that might not work.

There was only one time that I ever saw anybody deplete a battery in a Tesla. It was at Harris Ranch and I helped him push it into a space at a supercharger. As the people who helped me walked away, one of them called out "next time get a hybrid." I didn't have time to stay around and explain things. I could have told them that this driver knew 100 miles ahead of time that this would happen, and he could have slowed down to 55 mph under those circumstances, and he most likely left some place earlier with an insufficient charge knowing full well it would be iffy, but he probably thought that he got down to 0 miles of range before and didn't get stuck. I could have pointed out that there's a far greater chance that if a car gets stuck, it's because it ran out of gas, or had a dead battery (meaning the 12V battery) but it's not a matter of convincing one person.

Until there are plenty of EVs on the road, and a typical driver can ask his neighbor what it's like owning one, then people will go by what they read on line that's written by people who have no clue.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月16日

clpx123: General Motors, Honda, and BMW have all crushed, shredded, or otherwise destroyed leased vehicles from their 'experimental' electric vehicle programs. But hey, at least BMW replaced the Active-E with the i3... And GM has the SPARK EV today, with the BOLT on the way...

Y'know... Cars you can actually BUY for a change... That's something right? At least they are trying, see...? Uhm... Hello? Anybody there...?




Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月16日

cephellow: +1! Yeah. I think that's the point. The BOLT does the same thing as a Corvette. It brings people into the 'independent franchised dealership'. Once there, the salespeople do their best to sell you something else. Hence, why the CRUZE and MALIBU each outsell the VOLT by 10:1 and more. I'm sure General Motors expects the same to happen with BOLT.

Haggy: +1! Indeed.

swingshiftworker | 2016年4月25日

I seriously doubt that Tesla will sell a Tesla to everyone who placed a reservation for one.

A poll of potential Tesla buyers indicated that 40% of those people would NOT buy a Tesla unless they can get the Federal Tax credit and it's already been reported that most if not all Model 3 buyers will be ineligible for the credit by the time that the Model 3 finally reaches the market. Then you have the people who just placed their reservation "in case" because they know they can get their $1k back and decide to buy something else or nothing at all before then.

Investment analysts are already discounting Tesla's potential sales by 50% or more and amortizing those potential sales over several years (rather than front loading them at the end of 2017 and start of 2018 when Tesla "says" they will have Model 3's to sell.

This places the Bolt in a very favorable market position. Will GM sell 100k+ Bolts in the year b4 the Model 3 is supposed to arrive, no but I don't think they expect to do so. Estimates are that they will be happy to sell 30k Bolts in a year but ALL of those Bolts will be eligible for the tax credit AND GM has the capacity to make more if there is sufficient demand for them.

Die-hard Tesla fans are obviously NOT GM's targets for the Bolt but there are those people who want an EV that can drive "at least" 150-175 miles on a charge (allowing 25-50 as a safety hedge b4 the battery goes dead) who don't really care what the car looks like -- just look at all of the people who have bought or leased the likewise butt ugly Leaf and i3 much much less range to date.

These people just want a "reliable" EV car that can they can use as a 2nd car (their 1st car is an ICE they can drive as far as they want w/o worrying about recharging) without ever having to go to the gas station again and if the Bolt can to that, I wouldn't be surprised if Chevy sells more Bolts than anyone expects, including a large number of Model 3 reservation holders who end up buying leasing one b4 the Model 3 arrives who end up asking for refunds because they find the the Bolt is good enough for their needs.

Time will tell . . .

JeffreyR | 2016年4月25日

@swingshiftworker wrote, "A poll of potential Tesla buyers indicated that 40% of those people would NOT buy a Tesla unless they can get the Federal Tax credit and it's already been reported that most if not all Model 3 buyers will be ineligible for the credit by the time that the Model 3 finally reaches the market. Then you have the people who just placed their reservation 'in case' because they know they can get their $1k back and decide to buy something else or nothing at all before then.
Investment analysts are already discounting Tesla's potential sales by 50% or more and amortizing those potential sales over several years (rather than front loading them at the end of 2017 and start of 2018 when Tesla "says" they will have Model 3's to sell."

Remember that the tax credit is phased out over time, so unless Tesla sells their limit well before the end of 2017, a good portion of early reservation holders should be able to get at least a portion of the tax credit. Here is what CNN Money said about the tax credit:

"The tax credit won't disappear overnight. Assuming Tesla reaches that threshold in the first quarter of 2018, its buyers would get the full tax credit during the second quarter of 2018. The credit will fall by 50% to $3,750, during the second half of 2018, and to $1,875 during the first half of 2019."

I searched for a reference to your "40% will cancel" claim and found this:

...Karl Brauer, senior analyst with Kelley Blue Book said, "More than 40% of car buyers interested in a Model 3 told a KBB survey that they wouldn't buy a one without the tax credit."

But, I could not find the original article. It seems that Karl Brauer was speaking to CNN Money instead of producing his own article. He also said, "I think it would be easy to see the Bolt pulling away a quarter of the demand for the Model 3."


"Most Tesla Model 3 buyers won't get the $7,500 tax break"
by Chris Isidore @CNNMoney

Even Tesla that has the best data of all—they know who reserved, when they reserved, where they live, and if they are previous owners or not—can only estimate from previous reservation trends how many will likely convert to actual buyers.

I believe that the next time Tesla announces reservation numbers they will be over 500,000 and still climbing. Then after the "Part 2" Model ≡ Unveiling, there will be another burst of reservations. Even if only 60% of them actually convert, that 60% will still represent a huge number. Then its a question of how much Tesla can ramp up production in 2018. This is something like what Tesla has estimated in the past:

Year    Annual Production
2018     100,000
2019     250,000
2020     500,000

But, Elon admitted that they will need to rethink their production plans.

We'll know more after the Annual Shareholders Meeting and even more after Part 2 of the Model ≡ Unveiling.

groovykool | 2016年4月25日

Tesla has never shipped 30K cars in one year and you are giving Chevy grief? If Chevy ships 30K Bolts in 2017 it will be more than Tesla's ENTIRE PRODUCTION in 2017.

I continue to be baffled by the Tesla fanboy hatred of other BEV's and car makers in generals? Guess what? other manufacturers make good reliable vehicles that people drive and enjoy everyday.

And no Tesla is not going to change the world. They will make cars and sell cars just like all the other car makers.

JeffreyR | 2016年4月25日

@groovykool wrote, "Tesla has never shipped 30K cars in one year and you are giving Chevy grief? If Chevy ships 30K Bolts in 2017 it will be more than Tesla's ENTIRE PRODUCTION in 2017."

I'm not sure where you get your production numbers from, but Tesla shipped 50K Model S sedans in 2015:

Clean Technica: Tesla Surpasses 50,000 Sales In 2015
January 5th, 2016 by Zachary Shahan

The reason people give GM grief is their arrogant attitude about "beating Tesla" and "not needing $1K reservations bc. our bottom line is fine" as well as the general lack of commitment to produce game-changing, compelling EVs. If they sounded more like Elon and said "we welcome the competition" or "our new mission is produce sustainable vehicles" then people would be a bit more generous. Instead they leave faulty parts in production and kill dozens of people.

Like many others above, I hope that the Bolt is successful and forces GM to double down on EV design and production, and invest heavily in long-distance charging infrastructure.

You want some support of GM on this forum? Have them announce a BEV Cadillac that competes w/ a Model S (CTS-EV SEDAN), a Model X (XT5-EV CROSSOVER), and Model 3 (ATS-EV SEDAN) w/ around 250+ miles of range along w/ 500 Level-3 charging stations. That would make a positive impression.

Bighorn | 2016年4月25日

Your agenda is showing.

groovykool | 2016年4月25日

OK fanboys. Tesla is a GOLDEN GOD! Every car except Tesla's are junk!

I'll go back to ignoring this forum while I wait for the Model ≡.


Tropopause | 2016年4月25日


Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月26日

JeffreyR: Yeah. And they shipped over 31,000 units in 2014. So, groovykool's 'NEVER' happened TWICE while he wasn't looking. Of course, if one is to give him the benefit of the doubt...? He may have been only considering shipments to US Customers, instead of worldwide.
NAH! He just didn't know and was blowing steam out of his sphincter.

dsvick | 2016年4月26日

@swingshift wrote
I seriously doubt that Tesla will sell a Tesla to everyone who placed a reservation for one.
You're absolutely rigth, not all of the over 400,000 people that placed a reservation will actual buy a M ☰ , and water is wet ...

A poll of potential Tesla buyers indicated that 40% of those people would NOT buy a Tesla unless they can get the Federal Tax credit...
Was that a poll of people who placed a reservation or a poll of people who might possibly consider buying a M ☰ ? Worst case and 40% of reservations don't follow through and they still have 240,000 orders, and that's not even considering that anyone who placed a reservation after the first week should have pretty much assumed they would not get the tax credit. And it's also not considering that a lot of those 400,000 are from people not in the US so the tax credit isn't even a factor for them. So you're probably really only looking at 40% of 200,000 or so.

... it's already been reported that most if not all Model 3 buyers will be ineligible for the credit by the time that the Model 3 finally reaches the market. It's also been reported in several places that most people probably will get the credit. At this point no one knows for sure and anyone saying otherwise is just speculating.
www dot forbes dot com/sites/markrogowsky/2016/04/05/tesla-can-hack-the-tax-code-to-max-out-the-number-of-people-who-get-7500-back-heres-how/#79506b792783
cleantechnica dot com/2016/04/19/how-the-ev-tax-credit-works-tesla-model-3/