Who has higher priority? A guy who reserved early and lives in the east or a guy who reserved late and lives in CA?

Who has higher priority? A guy who reserved early and lives in the east or a guy who reserved late and lives in CA?

I am a little confused about how the reservation priority works. I have read that they will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. Does that mean a person who made the 100,000th reservation and lives in New York will get his car delivered late than a person who made the 200,000th reservation but lives in California?

If yes, does the same rule apply for the $7500 tax credit as well?

Thanks in advance.

Haggy | 2016年5月3日

Tesla hasn't been 100% clear on that but it's extremely unlikely that a person who ordered in California a week after Tesla started taking orders will get the car before somebody who ordered in NY on the first day. The exception might be for those who get priority for being an employee or current owner, but even for that, it's not clear.

They will start deliveries in California at the factory, and in the beginning it will take time to ramp up production as they learn how to coordinate things. Once they do, they will want to move onto the next region. They will need to plan for transportation and delivery issues for each areas, and they aren't going to want to ramp up to 100% and limit deliveries to California because they don't have all of their delivery specialists working in California. It simply won't work unless they start moving to other regions as soon as they can make enough volume to support it. Their staff in one region would end up working 27 hours a day while those in the other regions would be sitting on their hands unless they start moving into other regions as fast as is practical.

What's not practical is to start off with a few hundred cars coming off the line the first week, shipping one on a truck by itself to New Brunswick, another in its own train car to Hoboken, and another to Waterville, and so on. They will need to get up to speed and have a coordinated effort region by region once they can manage it.

The tax credit phase out depends on the quarter in which Tesla reaches 200,000 domestic sales. International deliveries won't affect things. If they reach 199,999 deliveries in the middle of a quarter and switch to 100% international deliveries for the rest of the quarter, they will have two more full quarters during which 100% of people will qualify for the maximum tax credit they are entitled to. Tesla could also switch production to 100% domestic for those two quarters, in which case they'd be able to produce as many cars for domestic delivery in those quarters as they'd normally be able to do in 10 months, assuming 60% of orders are domestic.

The 200,000th reservation is more likely for the 120,000th domestic vehicle.

tommyalexandersb | 2016年5月3日

@haggy or anyone. What are your thoughts on taking delivery at the factory vs getting it about 400 miles away? I'm thinking so many people might be getting theirs at the factory thaf it will be over crowded and it might be fast for me to just have them deliver it. But if the general thinking is that the factory would be faster, I could easily pick it up there. Thanks!

rajiv4591 | 2016年5月3日

@haggy: Thanks for your response. Now I have a better picture of how it is going to be done.

@tommyalexandersb: If they let me get my car at the factory and If I am 400 miles away, I would go and get mine at the factory. I dont think delivery is going to be quicker because they are going to wait until all the cars for that area are manufactured and then ship all of them in one shot. Whereas, at the factory, you can pick up your car as soon as it is ready. Correct me if I am wrong. Thanks!

topher | 2016年5月3日

I suspect that if you ordered anytime after 9:00am on the 31st, you will not be affected by the 'Californians first' policy.

@rajiv If they are shipping by region, you are just as likely to be pushed forward in the line to make up an almost complete shipment as you are to pushed back waiting for others in your region. Actually picking it up at the factory may or may not speed up other portions of the process.

Thank you kindly.

Darryl | 2016年5月3日

It all depends on what you order. First of all no one has ordered a car yet. The only thing a reservation and reservation priority (previous owner or employee) allows you to do is order earlier but what you order determines how soon you get delivery. If it works like it has in the past someone who orders a loaded car with at a minimum the performance package (P), premium option and autopilot option goes to the top of the queue. This time they will start delivery of the performance cars in the west coast with the exception of current Tesla owners who will get their cars at the same time as west coast orders. The order of importance is what you order in combination with being a current Tesla owner then living on the west coast. So if you were a California resident who ordered a base model and had made his reservation on March 31 and a Chicago or Washington DC person who ordered a year later but ordered a loaded car the Chicago/Washington guy will get car first.

dsvick | 2016年5月3日

@rajiv Also keep in mind that the reason that they are delivering to the factory area first is so that any issues that do arise can be corrected more quickly and the solution applied to future production. So picking it up at the factory may not necessarily get you your vehicle faster if you don't also live in the area.

...a Chicago or Washington DC person who ordered a year later but ordered a loaded car the Chicago/Washington guy will get car first.
Most likely this is not true. There may be some priority given to the more highly optioned orders but it would be incredibly unfair and very poor customer service to make someone wait while everyone that orders $1 more in options gets their car ahead of them.

Additionally, Tesla will want to show everyone that they can build and deliver what they said they would, meaning a $35,000 car, so there will be base models produced right along with the optioned ones. Haggy's explanation above is the best one and uses the most current info from Tesla, anything else is speculation.

Drdpharris | 2016年5月3日

My understanding is that the "loaded orders first" policy may not apply as it did before with the S. They will want to demonstrate that $35k model 3s actually exist so as not to criticized regarding price.

KP in NPT | 2016年5月3日

I imagine them grouping in batches - west coast employees, then owners by battery size, followed by owners by region and battery size. But with such a huge number of orders, I feel like much will depend on the ramp and number of lines. | 2016年5月3日

Unless you live in California, you do not want to do a factory pickup (although Tesla has allowed it in the past). You will be hit with a 9+% California sales tax that is not refundable! Yes, it's unfair and crazy, but it is unlikely to get changed anytime soon if ever.

SamO | 2016年5月3日

Some states offer a credit for the sales tax portion paid in the foreign jurisdiction. DMV "fees" aren't reduced.

carlk | 2016年5月3日

It looks each region will have a quota. Tesla will ship west coast first but west coasters will still not be getting the car before east coasters if reservation is made afer quota in the area has reached.

Bluesday Afternoon | 2016年5月3日

As the norm here, everything mentioned is total speculation. No one knows enough to elevate the discussion beyond conjecture. Many of the above comments make reasonable sense and may be substantially incorrect. Let's toss this out for discussion. Tesla states employees of Tesla and SpaceX will be first in line to receive their Model 3's. So, will Tesla roll out the Model 3 to all USA Tesla/SpaceX employees before any current Tesla owners? Or, will a Tesla employee in Florida receive theirs after all California/West Coast employees? How does the highly optioned build ($) impact employee distribution?

The interesting part is we may never know about employee distribution. Since employees are part of the Secret Order. One thing I feel fairly confidant about (definitely not 100%) is the Model 3 should be the best-manufactured Tesla product to reach the public with little discussion about build issues. Thanks to Tesla employees, and their level of secrecy, Consumer Reports may give the Model 3 very high "reliability" marks (to go with the revival of their 103 rating!) But that is complete conjecture on my part. ;-)

Haggy | 2016年5月3日

If you live in California, it might not make much difference if you pick it up at the factory or have it sent 400 miles away. If you are talking about 400 miles south, the demand there will be just as great. Tesla will have as many cars ready for delivery in each area as it can handle, and it might come down to making cars few days earlier for shipment of a few hundred miles than they would make for local delivery, meaning you'd get it around the same time.

When my Model S was made, it was clear that Tesla wanted to maximize quarterly deliveries, and for the first couple of weeks of September, it didn't seem as if anybody was getting one for Fremont delivery. Those took time to transport elsewhere before the end of the quarter. Then right before the end of the quarter, they cranked them out for Fremont delivery and I got my car at the end of September 2014. Had they made my car a day earlier, I would have missed out on autopilot. Of course there would be no way of knowing something like that.

If you want to tour the factory, pick it up in Fremont. If you'd rather not have a 400 mile drive with a brand new car and would prefer to drive it locally first in case anything went wrong, you'll probably get it just as fast with delivery elsewhere in California. Chances are slim that anything would go wrong on the way home, but it's a matter of whether you think it's worth the small risk.

tommyalexandersb | 2016年5月3日

@Haggy Thank you!!! (I am south btw, santa barbara, was around the 200,000 mark in reserving, and plan to get it fully loaded minus the tow hitch). I'm thinking of any way possible to get it sooner (even a few days) because I'm not a very patient person hahaha. Your comment is greatly appreciated!

topher | 2016年5月4日

Tesla is not going to ask people to determine their options, years before they are going to get their cars. That's nuts. So they will probably ask the next quarter's worth of buyers to configure their cars. So options won't be able to have effect on where you are in the queue until you have configured, so movement only within a single quarter.

Thank you kindly.

dachuyn | 2016年5月4日

Tesla would do this ...
1. Deliver CA orders as M3s are produced ... orders with more options should be produced first ...
2. After 1 month, if most issues have been addressed, deliver to other western states
3. After 3 months (or as soon as all issues are cleared), deliver to everyone in the US in a way that takes advantage of highest tax credit (orders with more options get higher priority within each zone/state ... although doing this may look ... bad.)
4. After tax credit is exhausted, deliver to other countries ...

Badbot | 2016年5月7日

Employees get first run so they can be beta testers allowing fast bug swatting cycles.

after things are going smoothly cali. cars get done lower shipping cost.
And IIRC 54 percent of all Teslas live in calif. so state wise we are the biggest customer.

Reading the delivery docs you can pick up at the factory, but, they suggest a local tesla repair shop for the hands on training given as the delivery process. saving most of the 'how do I ..." calls. and then you know where to go when you need to have it serviced.

Haggy | 2016年5月12日

For some of us, the local repair shop is at the factory, but that's not the point. Since the first customers will be employees and then current owners, they won't likely need much hand holding.

PBEndo | 2016年5月13日

regarding the shipping order comments -
Though they will be ramping up slowly and wouldn't send a single M≡ on a train to a far off location, they will still be making and shipping the S and X. All three can be shipped together. For this reason, areas with a high S/X concentration may get the M≡ a little sooner. i.e. South Florida may get its first M≡ before Arkansas even though it is farther East.

Haggy | 2016年5月13日

That's true, but it's also going to be a matter of ramp up being predictable. It's not as if they are going to say that there's going to be a shipment anyway so they could decide at the last minute to throw in a Model 3. It would be possible, but chances are they will be planning well in advance how many of each model will be shipped to a given area and scheduling the start of manufacturing based on that. If they know that they will have a steady stream of cars coming off each line, it will be easy to schedule any number of each model among any regional shipment. If they schedule a shipment to an area and don't know a month ahead of time whether it's likely that they will be able to make a particular Model 3, but they do know that they can make a certain number of other models for a given region, they will schedule the number of cars for that region that they know they can make.

They probably have more flexibility for California. Over the weekend, I saw a random share of trucks carrying other vehicles, and for the most part they had a variety of vehicle types and brands on the same truck. I happened to notice three trucks at given times traveling in the direction away from the factory and they were carrying nothing but Tesla vehicles. I didn't notice whether they were 100% full or what the mix was between X and S, but if they are sending several trucks a day across the state, there's probably more leeway because if they miss a Model 3 that's not ready, they could put on a Model S that would have gone out in a few hours. That was within a few hundred miles of Fremont and could have been dropping things off anywhere in between there and So Cal, but there's a big empty gap and then a good number of showrooms once they get to So Cal, so there are plenty of cars going to the same general area. That's not going to be the case for somebody in Ogden, especially if it's the one in New York.