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All Interesting Things Said Today at the Tesla Conference Call [Updated]

All Interesting Things Said Today at the Tesla Conference Call [Updated]

1.) On Production Numbers:

100,000 Model 3s by late next year

500,000 in 2018 made of Maybe 100k-150k S and X and 300k to 400k Model 3, but “it’s really hard to say,”

2.) On Model 3 Readiness:

We are already almost complete with design of Model 3, Musk says.

Musk mentions July 2017 as the date that Tesla and suppliers will have to take seriously about the Model 3.

3.) On Autonomous Driving:

Musk says that data is everything in that case. In order for regulators to be confident with it, they will want to see a very large amount of data, maybe billions of miles’ worth, showing that a self-driving car is safe.

Tesla will argue for autonomous driving, but not argue against manual driving, Musk says. Freedom is important. If people want to drive a manual car, they should be allowed to drive it, he says.

4.) On Reservations:

93% of Model 3 reservations were from customers who had not interacted with Tesla before

5.) On the Future of Production Plants:

Musk plans for international expension are “sort of speculative,” he says. But making cars in California and shipping them all over the world is not very efficient, he adds.

At some point it will make sense to have a plant in Europe, and a plant in China, he says, but Musk does not give specific dates or details.

Just to meet North America demand, Tesla will need another plant in North America, he says.

[UPDATE]
**I'm listening to the conference call now & there are some other nuggets not reported**

If you place your order for a Model 3 "right now" there is a high probability you will get it in 2018.
"We designed the Model 3 easy to make"
Unlike the S and X the Model 3 is "fundamentally" different due to input from suppliers to make it easy to build
Also unlike the S and X if there is a problem with a supplier Tesla can "scramble and make parts in-house"

Bubba2000 | 2016年5月4日

Tesla will have to finalize the design, including the interior, display, interface of M3 quickly. Then validate and test prototypes. Get suppliers lined up. All this while scaling the GF to 35 GWhr, building new manufacturing lines. Controlling costs. More than the timeline, it important to get the design right. Get quality, reliability right.

It will be disruptive to ICE, oil industries. They will be sweep into the dustbin of history.

Chunky Jr. | 2016年5月4日

I think he said 6-8 weeks until Model 3 is fully designed for production. Of course it will evolve over time, but initial 1.0 design is almost done. It would be interesting to know what pieces are left. Dash?

Red Sage ca us | 2016年5月4日

Interior, taillight/charger assembly, right hand drive components... Accessories and optional equipment...

sbeggs | 2016年5月4日

@deesugar,
Many thanks for the summary.

@Red Sage,
Think you nailed the last items to be defined!

JeffreyR | 2016年5月4日

@Red Sage
Elon tweeted that 0.1mm is significant for Cd. Do you think they will just call it good enough and evolve it gradually or does retooling cost too much?

jamilworm | 2016年5月4日

Remember that just because we didn't see something at the reveal doesn't mean it isn't done. They could have intentionally left stuff out, one reason possibly being they wouldn't want competitors to have a head start copying it. Specifically I'm thinking of the dash/steering controls.

deesugar | 2016年5月4日

@Jamilworm

Leaving out details in the conference call was due to calculations about what to tell investors and leaving excitement for the second part of the unveil for their customers . Tesla has gone through the unheard of step in open sourcing their patents, encouraging manufactures to copy Tesla for free with no penalties. Which has had the effect of opening a caged door for an animal that has been imprisoned it's whole life only to see it doesn't run outside to it's freedom and just lay's there.

That being said it took an outstanding number in Model 3 reservations for Auto Manufactures to get up from the corner of their cage and start sniffing around the doorway.

Having worked in Silicon Valley in Mechanical, Software and Hardware companies I can tell you what would happen if Tesla talked about secret details about dash/steering controls to the Auto Industry.
Absolutely Nothing.

For two reasons:
One, the industry is probably familiar with whatever dash/steering concept going to be used on the M3 but just like it's treated all of the Tesla innovations, thinks it won't be a big seller to customers.

Two, they might think it's a great idea but have no idea how to pull it off. Talking about an idea isn't a roadmap on how to execute it which is why Ford paid $200,000 to dissect a Limited-Edition Tesla Model X recently. Because that's the only way they will know how to build their own version. It's a very common practice here.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年5月4日

jamilworm & deesugar: I suspect the steering system will be something else that is 'lifted' from General Motors' many concept cars that was never officially released (something similar to the Hy-Wire concept, maybe). This will make my dear Friend VIofIX blow his top if that turns out to be the case, as he hates Elon Musk and despises that Tesla Motors has brought vehicles to market that have embarrassed Detroit. He's already expressed his anger that the skateboard idea was 'stolen' from GM (never mind the same idea has been used in model cars for decades). It will be fun to watch!

deesugar | 2016年5月5日

@Red Sage
I've said they might put a flexible screen on the steering wheel but I don't think they are going to use those controls.

(copy and paste in your browser after fixing "dot com")
i.ytimg dot com/vi/Qow9r5yhhBo/hqdefault.jpg

tesla | 2016年5月5日

Thank you Deesugar for all that input.

I was amazed by some of the things said and wrote a few down...

Elon: so.... I mean, as a rough guess I'd say we would aim to produce a hundred to two thousand Model 3s in the second half of next year. That's my expectation right now.

Wow

Elon: What I would say to anyone that is thinking about ordering a Model 3, now is a good time to actually place your reservation- or place your order ... because you don't have to worry about- placing your oder and receiving it, you know, five years from now. If you place your order now, there's a high probilibilty you will actually receive your car in 2018. So, Id' really recomment that anyone who wants to receive their car in 2018 place their order... very soon.

Wow

Elon: It's always tempting for people to reason by analogy instead of first principals...

Love that line

Elon: Every supplier wants to be in this program.

Sure seems like that could put Tesla in a strong position to inquire about some great net terms. ;>

And Elon said they believe that Fremont and giga factory can ship 1 million cars in 2020

WOW!

sbeggs | 2016年5月5日

Laughing at your great analogy of caged auto companies seeing the door open and just laying there. Brilliant!

Red Sage ca us | 2016年5月5日

Yeah, these controls are rather funky. Still, it would be nice to something that is rather innovative. I'm certain that the Tesla styling would be different, of course.

Oh, and the 'caged ones' probably think they are outside the asylum.

lolachampcar | 2016年5月5日

The real ray of sunshine for me was the elasticity in Elon's thinking/reasoning. He has moved from producing the most complicated (read difficult) car on the planet in ModelX to moving the whole Tesla car design zeal and mindset to focusing on being the best, most innovative manufacturer on the planet. If he turns all that nerd focus to the task along with hiring to make manufacturing engineering cool again (and financially rewarding - an opportunity most manufacturing engineers never get), he will likely succeed in reinventing the vehicle production process as he has in reinventing the idea of the car. It was also tremendously reassuring that he has fully embraced DFM. He explained many times in many different ways that you can design something so that it is hard to build or you can design it so it is easy. He is hurting from the S followed by the X experience treating manufacturing as an after thought. It is clear he will not be making that mistake again.

Very promising. It will be boring for some on lookers but I am very excited.

lolachampcar | 2016年5月5日

Coast,

I had a slightly different take on the 2020 volume comments. First, 1MM was a guess at what could be produced. Second, the GF allows Fremont to go beyond 500K/yr but Elon did not elaborate. Third, Elon felt larger volumes at lower price points required more localized (to the specific) market as shipping costs start to become an unacceptable percentage of the overall car's cost.

I read into this that the 1MM is simply that, a guess and that volumes much beyond 500K/yr will be handled by offloading the largest continent outside NA to a plant on that continent.

RedShift | 2016年5月5日

I read that two manufacturing execs left. Somewhere else on the internet, there was a long, extremely negative thread about Tesla's earnings call and this was one thing they were repeating over and over saying 'it's all over for the Model 3 Ponzi scheme' (ha, just some jealous idiots ranting)

However, anyone have thoughts about that?

lolachampcar | 2016年5月5日

Simply open the door for manufacturing types to get an options play in a SV start up (basically how Tesla is structured) and you will have solved the problem. I assume from Elon's comments that the company has done just that.

Bighorn | 2016年5月5日

@RS
I think he was referring to one of those execs at the beginning of the call--he changed jobs within the company.

RedShift | 2016年5月5日

@lolachampcar and bighorn

Being part of that Silicon Valley culture, I know what you mean. In the dot com era, many in the wall street came to work here. Hopefully a similar thing will happen with the auto industry. God knows, they need a brain drain into better companies like Tesla.

bj | 2016年5月5日

What seems to be a curious omission from all of this is an update on the total number of Model 3 reservations. Did EM provide an update? If not, why not? I'm sure if they hit 500k they'd be shouting it from the rooftops.

tesla | 2016年5月5日

Hey, lolachampcar. Yeah, that was the one point I characterized instead of quoting, and so was hesitant to do so. But I thought I actually heard him say 1 million at Fremont. Here is that portion of the transcript where that was covered, for anyone interested in the text of exactly what was said (Google "transcription of tesla earnings conference call" for the entirety):

Operator: Phil LeBeau. Phil LeBeau (Analyst - CNBC): Hi Elon, I have a question, it was about 10 minutes ago, you made reference to 1 million vehicles in 2020. Is that a production target, a production goal, or a hypothetical? I'm just looking for some clarification there. Elon Musk (Chairman, Product Architect & CEO): That's my best guess. If we're half a million in 2018 and roughly 50%-ish growth from there, then it's probably around a million in 2020. Phil LeBeau (Analyst - CNBC): And do you have an estimate as to how many production plants you will need in order to make that happen? Elon Musk (Chairman, Product Architect & CEO): I think it is actually feasible, maybe not advisable, but feasible to do it with just Fremont and the Gigafactory. We actually believe that the Fremont and the Gigafactory could scale to a million vehicles. Whether that's actually wise is a separate question. As I said earlier, it's going to make sense to do localized production at least on a continent basis, otherwise your logistics costs end up being quite extreme. Your logistics costs start becoming a bigger and bigger percentage of total vehicle costs. That's really why manufacturers build their cars for a local market. They build cars for a market in that market because logistics costs associated with shipping one and a half to two ton vehicles...

tesla | 2016年5月5日

Redshift: "..However, anyone have thoughts about that?.."

Ponzi scheme? Well, if needing to coax someone into buying your existing product in order to finance producing additional/new products is a Ponzi scheme, then yes, the Model 3 is a Ponzi scheme. And if the company requires Model 3s to be sold in order to build even more Model 3s to keep the scheme going, then yeah, no doubt Tesla is running a massive Ponzi scheme.

But then so is Ford, GM, and all the other automakers. And the restaurant down the street. And every legitimate company selling a product. Or a service.

I did not see the thread, but by any chance was it on Zero Hedge. :>

Red Sage ca us | 2016年5月5日

Coastalcruiser: +21! That is exactly why I don't bother to read any further when a Naysayer mentions 'Ponzi Scheme' in association with Tesla Motors.

georgehawley.fl.us | 2016年5月5日

If they are able to deliver more than 25,000 M≡'s in 4Q17, I'll eat my Tesla hat.
If they are able to deliver even 300,000 in 2018, I'll spit it up and eat it again... (after taking delivery of an early one :-)) )

Even if they come close, it will be an immense achievement. Maybe Elon is transferring design hubris to production hubris...

tesla | 2016年5月5日

Thanx Red Sage. And Redshift, you also got me to thinking about how I fire back at people on the Zero Hedge blog who are in the "Tesla=ponzi" camp. This is a summary of the best argument I've come up with so far:

First, understand their point of view. The issue with Charles Ponzi, the man we get the phrase "ponzi scheme" from, is that he produced nothing of value. He initially had a notion of buying a certain product cheap in one country and selling it a higher price in the US (international postage), but when the idea did not pan out Ponzi continued taking investor money and used it to pay off other investors at a profit... after taking a substantial cut for himself.

The anti-Tesla crowd that I'm exposed to (mostly on Zero Hedge) claim that Tesla produces "nothing of value", in that its cars would be unprofitable if not for government subsidies. It always seems to be about that. Without subsidies Tesla could not survive. Therefore Tesla's whole business model is faulty, and it is simply siphoning off tax payer money. Thus, a corrupt, liberal plot to enrichen a few.

So that is the parallel they try to draw: both "schemes" use OPM (Other People's Money) to survive, and that the Tesla scheme cannot continue in perpetuity without a constantly increasing stream of OPM.

Now on the one hand these folks have a point. But rather than flame them in the forums (which is more fun, really), I point out why, of all the stupid-ass things my tax dollars get spent on, I am quite happy to temporarily subsidize the birth of the electric car. Why? Because Elon Musk really is shifting the paradigm (an overused expression that actually fits in this case). I have a somewhat superficial understanding of the financial workings of Telsa Motors, but it seems clear that:

a) A viable electric car can be built.

b) An electric car can take you not only from point A to point B... but to extended point C, with an affordable (hopefully renewable energy backed) charging network.

c) The company is serious about, and is has in part already demonstrated, that pioneering technologies, a revolutionized design and manufacturing process, and our old friend scale-of-economies, has a reasonable chance of making the electric car profitable on its own, as these temporary tax incentives run out over time.

d) Even in the worse case scenario where Telsa is unable to survive (I think they will though, for several reasons), the company has opened the door... they broke the Electric Car Code, if you will. In a hundred years (or 10) you should be able to draw a dividing line in world history before and after the forming of Tesla Motor Company. It's not just about the technology. It's not even just about the electric car. Elon is making people think differently about how we can help the world survive. Electrons induce photons as the light from such a notion seeps into the dark corners of our minds. At some point, everyone's mind.

I'm sure that others more familiar with the Tesla business model can add to this list, but as it is it looks pretty good, and I am delighted to participate as a tax payer and as a customer. Every once in a while the government gets it right.

RedShift | 2016年5月5日

Guys, take it easy. I happened to read the long thread, but chose not to respond, coz there's no sense in debating jealousy and anger borne out of anger at their life circumstances. I happen to know these blokes for I happened to be a regular on that forum until a few years back. These folks are mostly angry at the loss of their jobs or wage stagnation/loss. They think Tesla is the Obama's pet white elephant.

Why bother debating? We dont get anything by doing that. Tesla is doing well, and I am almost sure the Model 3 will meet all the milestones.

RedShift | 2016年5月5日

The only think I zeroed in was this 'loss of manufacturing execs'. Just wanted to get you folks' take on it.

lph | 2016年5月5日

I think that those exec's won't cut the grade for the coming mission at hand. I think that they were fine for the jobs they had at the time, but moving in to large scale production requires a different skill and thinking set. To do it Elon's way will also require those to also be innovative, really, really smart and hard working. Not easy to find, but they are out there. I recon that Tesla will grab some seriously good people of the jobs, because of the excitement of being on a winning and innovative team.
Cant wait for my M3...ordered early enough to maybe get it in 2017!

lph | 2016年5月5日

"for" not "of" the jobs..... dang silly spell checker changes what i type.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年5月5日

Coastalcruiser: I prepared a lengthy reply that is being Blocked by the spam filter here. Wish I could post it.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年5月5日

Naysayers tend to use circular 'logic' that has no actual basis in fact. They respond with trite, emotion filled rhetoric when you present proof of the incorrect nature of their theories. They repeatedly claim that Tesla Motors has been 'given' BILLIONS of taxpayer dollars -- 'for nothing'. They completely ignore any evidence that petroleum companies yield GAZILLIONS in tax incentives annually.

I stand by the position that Tesla Motors does not receive any subsidies for their cars at all. That is because I make a distinction between subsidies for businesses and incentives for consumers.

Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Credits were created at the request of the traditional automobile manufacturers. They lobbied that they should get additional benefits for the EPA's Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements when building compliance cars that met California Air Resource Board (CARB) standards. They also asked that those ZEV Credits could be traded among automobile manufacturers. That way, companies that had a fleet of gas guzzlers could use the ZEV Credits to apply them toward their CAFE numbers, lessening or eliminating their exposure to EPA fines. Companies that already had a pretty high CAFE could sell their extra ZEV Credits gleaned from building their compliance cars. This system was in place at least a decade before Tesla Motors was founded. At no point does the US Government cut a check to Tesla Motors or anyone else -- without buying a car. That does not qualify as a 'subsidy' in my mind.

Some States offer a Rebate to those who buy fully electric cars. Some, like Texas, only offer those to Consumers who bought from an 'independent franchised dealership'. Some, like California, only offer the benefit to those who bought cars that cost less than a certain dollar amount. Some, like Georgia, only offer a rebate to a specific number of buyers per manufacturer, per year. In each case though, the money goes to the person who bought that product, not to the company that sold it.

Then there is the Federal EV Tax Credit. It simply lessens your exposure to tax - it is not a Rebate or Refund at all. And unlike the $100,000 Tax Credit that was available for oversized, gas-guzzling 'Commercial Vehicles' such as the HUMMER, the $7,500 amount is nowhere near enough to pay for the WHOLE CAR that one might buy from Tesla Motors.

The whole notion that Tesla Motors 'cannot survive' without 'subsidies' is made further ridiculous due to the fact they have at times gone months on end without selling any of the ZEV Credits. Tesla Motors' own fleet of cars is already sporting a CAFE well over 80 MPGe. That is well above the EPA's current CAFE requirement, as well as the 50+ MPG rating to come around 2025. If Tesla Motors doesn't sell the ZEV Credits within two years of earning them, they get no money. If other car companies improve their fuel economy, so that they meet CAFE requirements, they don't need to buy ZEV Credits from Tesla Motors or anyone else. If other car companies continue to build gas guzzlers, they can just pay the EPA fine without buying ZEV Credits from Tesla Motors or anyone else. No one is required to buy ZEV Credits from Tesla Motors, or anyone else.

At one point these morons were claiming the government was giving Tesla Motors $45,000 per car to support their 'Toys... for the RICH!' That was complete [BORSHT]. The EPA penalty for not meeting CAFE is $5,000 per car. Tesla Motors was at one time receiving 9 ZEV Credits per car sold in California, or other CARB States. So those detractors multiplied $5,000 by 9 and came up with $45,000 in 'subsidies' per car. Then, they multiplied that by ALL the cars built in a year to come up with some ridiculous number of 'taxpayer dollars' that had been 'given away for nothing'. Here the problem is... If the EPA Penalty is $5,000 then why would someone pay $5,000 for a ZEV Credit? Answer: They don't. The highest rate for a ZEV Credit is typically 80% or $4,000 each. They are negotiable, and might sell for as little as $2,000 dependent upon who is selling and who needs them. And the ZEV Credits are NOT applied toward international sales, but Naysayers still included the entirety of Tesla Motors Worldwide Production in their calculations.

These are the sort of simple truths that these guys will not accept. There is no reasoning with them at all. Some are ignorant of the facts, others are mislead, but I believe that most know full well they are dead dog wrong and simply don't want to admit it.

RedShift | 2016年5月6日

@redsage

Naysayers can go f themselves. We know Tesla is the way forward. IF they execute well, (god, I hope they do, almost as much as I hope my engineering team does the same in my startup) then this is the paradigm shift. Right now, looking at the track record of Tesla, it almost seems like a pipe dream, producing 1000 + Model 3 (remember, they still have to keep up with the S and X production)

If they pull it off, they are the next GM, Ford, etc. Though, I must caution this - one of the Detroit stalwarts might yet pull off a miracle and outdo Tesla. Never underestimate the oppoenet, stay paranoid (bow to Andy Grove)

The biggest problem for Tesla is is the relatively low bar of entry. CCS/Chaedmo scaling, along with good styling. Really thats all you need to take share of the pie. I am not trying to be a hater. Far from it. I am just trying to imagine what a determined traditional auto company might be able to do.

I speak with the hard experience gained as a founder and CEO of a scrappy startup which is now doing OK.

tesla | 2016年5月6日

redshift: No worries. I needed to hone my arguments anyway for when I run into such folks when driving my ≡. Not to pick a fight, but it's nice to have the facts at hand and be able to articulate. I was a teacher in one of my lifetimes and the goal was to always be able to field any question a student throws at you. btw - paranoia is what kept me alive all those years of motorcycling. ;>

Red Sage: Thanx! I am turning this thread into a PDF for future reference.

adias.angel | 2016年5月6日

"If they pull it off, they are the next GM, Ford, etc. Though, I must caution this - one of the Detroit stalwarts might yet pull off a miracle and outdo Tesla. Never underestimate the oppoenet, stay paranoid (bow to Andy Grove)"

As a resident Michigander very familiar with the Detroit auto industry, they are going to have a very tough battle to get back to the top. I'm not sure about the rest of the country but here in Michigan they have ruined their reputation. Tesla has done it right by creating a reputation of well build, technologically advanced, easy to buy cars. While no one here in Michigan can buy a Tesla, many of us are planning trips in Chicago or Indy to pick up our new Teslas.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年5月6日

A couple of decades ago, back when I used to read Car and Driver regularly, Csabre Csere wrote an article about 'Willingness Limits'. It was about how automotive journalists write about 'driving at the limit' all the time. He pointed out how personal bias either for or against a particular vehicle or series of cars from a manufacturer was exhibited in lap times. He noted that in a performance car comparison test staff journalists who really liked a Porsche 911 would get their best times using that car, no matter the competition. But, when an independent professional race car driver took the same course using all the same cars they had tested, his lap times were better than C&D staff members -- no matter the car. And his best times on the twisty road course were in cars that C&D rated low in terms of handling and driver confidence. Basically, when it came to 'The LIMIT' -- the only limitation was the driver, not the car.

RedShift: It isn't that I discount what traditional automobile manufacturers might be able to do with electric cars. I have the utmost confidence in their ability to build electric cars that are every bit as awesome as those from Tesla Motors. What I sincerely doubt is that they have any willingness to do the very best possible. I believe the traditional automobile manufacturers underestimate their own ability to change with the times. I believe they decry the necessity of making that change. I believe that some of them will eventually fall to the wayside, limited in market, because of their own internal limitations when it comes to adaptation. The comments by Sergio Marchionne at Fiat, now of Ferrari, solidify my opinion. They don't want to move to electric cars. Not because they are afraid it won't work -- but because their greatest fear is that it will. They are unwilling to face that fear and move on into the future. It is much more comfortable to cling to the successes of the past.

jordanrichard | 2016年5月6日

The traditional car companies make what will sell/is selling, to the dealers. Until the traditional car companies figure a way for their dealers to make the same amount of money on EVs, the dealers are not going to buy them. This isn't rocket science. GM, Ford etc with their vast sums of money could relatively easily/quickly build out a supercharger like network. They also could take their existing EV knowledge and scale it up to a mid size car. None of that is in question. The stopping point are the dealers and their loss of "cradle to grave" revenue.

warren_tran | 2016年5月6日

Regarding the EV automakers competition from the Chinese.

https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/chinese-electric-vehicle-mak...

Badbot | 2016年5月6日

@CC "paranoia is what kept me alive all those years of motorcycling"

You too? I tell everyone that motor cycles are totally invisible to 90 percent of the motoring public.
oh the other 10 percent, they are going to try their very best to run over you!

NKYTA | 2016年5月7日

RedShift gets a +1 for referencing Andy Grove.

I have to disagree with RedSage, I'm guessing the steering controls won't be much different that what we have currently if EM is going to streamline production to the lofty levels he has set. He's gotta source those parts...somewhere, somehow.

TeslaTap.com | 2016年5月7日

I don't have as much hope for traditional car companies producing a competitive EV, unless they license a complete design from Tesla (including the production process). They've had 50-100 years to perfect the current car design, but none has rated as well as the Model S in Consumer Reports. No other car has a higher satisfaction rating by the owners. None have a higher desired to buy the next car from the same manufacturer. And Tesla is just getting started and is only getting better.

Part of this is how fast Tesla moves. Tesla has bypassed so many old ways of doing things while the intrenched car companies seem incapable of changing. Some of these include over the air updates, free updates, internet ordering, no model years, being fearless about introducing new features when they are available, doing most of the software development in-house and doing most of the component manufacturing in-house.

RedShift | 2016年5月7日

RedSage,

Sergio is the example of someone who will follow LAST. I'm not talking about him. I'd be worried primarily about Nissan, GM from the traditional club, then the new slew of Chinese upstarts. Capital is pouring in from China, and India is likely to follow as they tend to sometimes (follow the Chinese)

Here is why there will be many startups here. This is a candidate for government grants everywhere. Not many will survive, but what they are hoping to do is get bought. Not a great business plan, but there it is.

The other thing is even someone like Sergio , when he finally decides to jump on the bandwagon will be looking to buy one of these startups. Apple will most likely do the same. May be Uber. All are hoping to ride the electric+self driving wave, and on the coat tails of Tesla.

My money would never be on these startups, unless they can do something miraculous with the battery and charging technologies. However, I am willing to bet that 19 out of 20 will fail badly.

RedShift | 2016年5月7日

Actually, there might be an opening for the city run about with the less than optimal battery and charging. Hm, maybe there is some hope for these startups.

mbb | 2016年5月7日

@redshift, EM's comments about naysayers pretty much answered your concerns :)

"As for convincing all the naysayers, I think that will basically be never. and I would just say like what I find ironic about a lot of the naysayers is that they – the very same people will transition from saying it was impossible to saying it was obvious. I am like, wait a second. Was it obvious or impossible? It can't be both. "

RedShift | 2016年5月8日

@mbb

EM described it perfectly. The same jealous dolts who are jumpong up and down that 'Model 3 is but a ponzi scheme' will grudgingly admit that Tesla pulled it off somehow' 3 years from now. Fuck 'em.

Chunky Jr. | 2016年5月8日

@RedShift : nah, 3 years from now they say Roadster 2 or Model Y is a ponzi scheme. Even if millions of Teslas are sold, they will still claim it is due to government subsidies, even though those will be long gone. There's no rational thinking going on. Zombie lies never die, they just come back in a slightly different form.

carlk | 2016年5月8日

@RedShift

Inmitaton is the sincerest form of flattering but so far I have not seen a start up, or any of those established companies, that makes me to worry about Tesla's market leading postion would be threatened. All I hear is they are copying some superficial EV design or connectivity stuff but no one is offering a sensible package like Tesla does now. When someone starts to talk about charging infrastructure and low cost battery production then I will take it more seriously. One more thing is even if they could imitate what Tesla got now they could no know what will be coming out of Tesla in five years. There is no reason to believe Elon will not continue to come up with new ideas to make it an even more desirable product. With that I'm not even sure if post-Jobs Apple could present any serious threat to Tesla.

PhillyGal | 2016年5月8日

@George - 100% Yes!

When you said:
If they are able to deliver more than 25,000 M≡'s in 4Q17, I'll eat my Tesla hat.
If they are able to deliver even 300,000 in 2018, I'll spit it up and eat it again... (after taking delivery of an early one)

Even if they come close, it will be an immense achievement. Maybe Elon is transferring design hubris to production hubris...

mos6507 | 2016年5月8日

The thing is, Tesla refuses to adopt a wholly competitive stance. Fans want to see Tesla stomp on the other automakers, but Tesla doesn't see it as a zero-sum game.

I'm not even sure that the plan to accelerate M3 production is really meant to beat copycats to market but rather to simply make the most of the federal tax credits and service the larger number of reservations.

I own an Android phone, which is, let's face it, a copy of the iPhone. If we assume that Tesla will show the rest of the industry how to do it, it would be better to have them successfully clone the Tesla model rather than the burden being on Tesla to scale out to GM or Toyota style proportions.

In order to do this, though, they are going to have to shed a lot of bad habits. In this next generation, they are going to bump up to 200 mile range, but keep clutching at the wrong DC fast-charge technologies, and their styling will probably still be wanting.

I'm just hoping we're far enough along not to fall into a Beta vs. VHS situation.

lolachampcar | 2016年5月9日

I suspect the primary motivation was to prevent disappointment and defection by a long scheduled delivery time extended by late delivery. With the demand Tesla has seen for M3, they can not afford either.

Hi_Tech | 2016年5月9日

I still think Tesla will be able to get a very reasonable production in 2017 and 2018. I see no reason they cannot have close to 250k production in 2017 (including about 100-125k Model S and X, with remainder as Model 3). Then pushing up the Model 3 to roughly 300-400k in 2018. Which brings it rather close to the 500k mark including Model S and X.

@George - Do you like your hat raw or cooked? Maybe buttered down to make it go down easier? ;-)

CraigW | 2016年5月9日

The difficulty in competing with Tesla is that the car is an entire package of new concepts.

The first - and biggest - is that Tesla completely bypassed the dealership model. How do you copy that, if you currently have dealerships?

The lack of dealerships allows Tesla to 1) custom build cars, while having little 'floating' inventory, 2) make model changes when it is convenient for Tesla, 3) invest the profits from a very profitable in infrastructure (read superchargers and batteries). Further, Tesla isn't hampered in selling the car because the Service Center is also a profit center.

Combine this with new production methodology and over-the-air software updates for what is a computer on wheels and you begin to see why the Tesla tsunami - regardless the height of the wave - is going to do a tremendous amount of damage to the existing auto industry.

Just how do you combat something that is so very different in so many ways to what you are doing now?

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