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How many reservations did you think would be made?

How many reservations did you think would be made?

Ok, let's face it. The nearly 400,000 reservations completely blew away even the most optimistic (including Elon). What was your guess before it took place. I had 20-40k in mind.

james.nicklin | 2016年8月17日

50k tops. Wasn't it over 135k by the time the reveal video started?

tedirelan | 2016年8月17日

I knew it would be record breaking, but I was thinking 200,000 worldwide.

Haggy | 2016年8月17日

I was thinking 100,000 to 130,000.

Badbot | 2016年8月17日

373,812

No really

Frank99 | 2016年8月17日

I was expecting 20-30,000 after the reveal, but secretly rooting for Tesla to hit 50,000 and blow everyone's minds. I really didn't expect them to hit 50,000 before lunch....

Red Sage ca us | 2016年8月17日

I originally thought it would be at least 50,000 reservations -- back when I thought the Reservation amount would be $2,500. I knew the instant that Elon Musk announced the Reservation fee would be $1,000 that they would get at least 100,000 immediately, and around 150,000 within the first week. So, I misjudged the magnitude by at least 200%.

johndoe | 2016年8月17日

@David N
There is a busy thread where people were making their predictions before the reveal.
I predicted a few hundred thousand in the first week, and was the only one to do so i.e. I was the only one who got it right

Ross1 | 2016年8月18日

More to the point but off topic: how many do they have now?

1 million?

Nexxus | 2016年8月18日

@Ross,

No. The last official count is near Badbot's number, but who knows now?

Ross1 | 2016年8月18日

But that was 3? months ago!

Nexxus | 2016年8月18日

@Ross,

I think they haven't accumulated too many more. Waiting for the next reveal before plunking down their money.

Ross1 | 2016年8月18日

You think.

Tstolz | 2016年8月18日

I thought 100,000 to 150,000.

At the next reveal the numbers will go crazy ... make that crazier. Especially if the car is fitted to be autonomous. Why would you buy anything else at that point? ... so glad to be on the list now!!

SamO | 2016年8月18日

When I got to the store on 3/31 I was the 7th person in line at 345AM.
When Elon was hi fiving owners in line on TV/News/social media before the launch, it started getting epic.
15 minutes before our store opened, there were 1500 people in line for a car that had never been seen. The line didn't diminish

There is a gym above the Adidas store, next door to a Tesla Motors Showroom in Santa Monica California and what appeared to be a mid 30's professional bodybuilder was going into the gym for a workout. He came up and asked the first people in line what we were waiting for. "New kicks?"
I told him "a Tesla electric car" reservation.
He became angry. Insulted. He thought we were "busting his balls."
I told him "ask anyone in this line" . . .
A few minutes later he came back, shook my hand and apologized. Said he never heard of such a thing and was going to "check it out."

X 400,000

Whatever demand anyone predicted in the past has been way underestimated and the demand GOING FORWARD is even bigger than Tesla, Elon, Ron Baron, Andrea James, Goldman Sachs and @RedSage can admit.

johndoe | 2016年8月18日

@SamO
You said "Whatever demand anyone predicted in the past has been way underestimated"
I predicted the demand correctly. I did not underestimated it.

dsvick | 2016年8月19日

johndoe | August 17, 2016
I predicted a few hundred thousand in the first week, and was the only one to do so i.e. I was the only one who got it right

johndoe | August 18, 2016
I predicted the demand correctly. I did not underestimated it.

How old are you?

Silver2K | 2016年8月19日

I predicted 100k the first week and was off by 6 1/2 days :)

PhillyGal | 2016年8月19日

I think I said "Fifty to a hundred thousand" in a YouTube video I posted the morning I found out we were selected to go to the reveal. I called myself crazy for even thinking that much.

johndoe | 2016年8月19日

@dsvick
Are you asking everyone else how old they are?

dsvick | 2016年8月21日

@johndoe - "Are you asking everyone else how old they are?"

No, just the ones that come across as being way too young to have a drivers license.

johndoe | 2016年8月21日

@dsvick
Then you need to ask several members of the forum the same question, particularly Red Sage.