1,875 Models 3 Delivered in January

1,875 Models 3 Delivered in January

Estimated by; usually they're pretty accurate. So, up to a little over 400 cars per week.

andy.connor.e | 2018年2月1日

Can you please stop sharing estimates when we are 6 days away from finding out real numbers.

bayareakid2008 | 2018年2月1日

Awful, awful if true.

phil | 2018年2月1日

andy.connor.e | February 1, 2018 "Can you please stop sharing estimates when we are 6 days away from finding out real numbers."


andy.connor.e | 2018年2月1日


Colatabajonies | 2018年2月1日

I wouldn’t be surprised. Tesla is awful. Also take my money please.... I love you!

bayareakid2008 | 2018年2月1日

The dishonesty from Tesla is causing real financial harm to their customers. Giving people realistic realistic updates on the ramp is a good thing, not a bad thing.

Frank99 | 2018年2月1日

"Dishonesty" is an accusation. It would probably be best if you didn't do that here.

shank15217 | 2018年2月1日

So, if they threw out a bigger number it would make you feel better? Have you considered how ev-insider is getting their numbers?

daveheilig | 2018年2月1日

What real financial harm are they causing? Everyone of us has the option of taking our $1000 back.

phil | 2018年2月1日

And I would not count on "real" numbers from Tesla. They ordinarily do not report monthly numbers, just quarterly. In this case, they may feel compelled to disclose and explain the Model 3 numbers in more detail, due to their importance, and continuing failure to meet their announced production and delivery targets.

andy.connor.e | 2018年2月1日

Post the link. Because assuming that would post an article regarding estimated deliveries in January, after January is over, there is not an article there.

Link please, because this would otherwise be (yet another) attempt to stir the pot.

pjalan | 2018年2月1日

No way. This can’t be true.

andy.connor.e | 2018年2月1日

Thanks for the link. Previous post disregarded.

I can see people are getting bored though.

bayareakid2008 | 2018年2月1日

Dave, people have planned leases, purchases and repairs based on a delivery estimator that is laughably wrong and production ramp estimates that are optimistic to the point of dishonesty.

daveheilig | 2018年2月1日

Once again...if something was causing me financial harm, I would not do it when I have an easy out....ask for the $1000 back and go on about your business.

andy.connor.e | 2018年2月1日

Whats short-sighted here, is estimating delivery numbers in 2018, when we do not have delivery numbers for Q4 of 2017. How can you expect to estimate the deliveries based on a production ramp-up, if you do not even know the extent of where the ramp-up is at the end of December?

johnse | 2018年2月1日

These numbers are an estimate for January. The delivery numbers they will discuss on Feb. 7 are those for October-December. They might include some info for recent rates, but they typically do not.

Inside-EV bases their estimates on state registration information. Tesla only announces production numbers quarterly.

leo33 | 2018年2月1日

According to the article, model 3 is in first place for 2018 sales of plug-in vehicles. Caveat, the numbers are preliminary.

(By the way this forum desperately needs better moderation. The trolls are getting out of hand. Spamming the Forum with multiple posts initiating the same anti Tesla talking points over and over doesn't promote a useful exchange of information.)

andy.connor.e | 2018年2月1日


Has there ever been a form of moderation other than users flagging?

phil | 2018年2月1日

andy.connor.e | February 1, 2018 "Whats short-sighted here, is estimating delivery numbers in 2018, when we do not have delivery numbers for Q4 of 2017. How can you expect to estimate the deliveries based on a production ramp-up, if you do not even know the extent of where the ramp-up is at the end of December?"

Andy, if you're gonna be this obnoxious, you need to get your facts right. Tesla announced its Q4 delivery numbers last month, as is their normal process. Pay a little bit of attention, and learn something (anything!) before you presume to scold others.

leo33 | 2018年2月1日

For this for forum? I have no idea. Some forums have human moderators that do a really good job.

Shock | 2018年2月1日

I already pointed out that the 1k/week was fast talk and shouldn't have been taken seriously. If you read exactly what they said they never said they were producing 1k/week, but people read what they wanted to, and took a potentially short term sprint in production to assume production would stay at that level.

""Dishonesty" is an accusation. It would probably be best if you didn't do that here."

Tesla's not necessarily dishonest with their projections. Just hopelessly optimistic.

However, how many people still have nov-jan estimated deliveries when they login, and it's still february? As I've also been pointing out for a long time, Tesla's estimator is badly lagging. I fully expect to see an update to it in the next week or so and it will push most of us back months, yet again.

"By the way this forum desperately needs better moderation. "

This forum needs a lot of things. Why does it keep logging us out, for example? Why doesn't search work? Why is it that next-page doesn't work on long threads when someone is logged out? Why can't we edit posts? That's just for starters.

fskott | 2018年2月1日

"Can you please stop sharing estimates when we are 6 days away from finding out real numbers."

Ummm . . . . they're announcing Q42017 in 6 days, not January 2018 numbers, of any sort . . . .

The slowdown over the last ten days is indeed disconcerting.

I won't call it dishonest or otherwise, but all I can say, is from the perspective of someone waiting, seeing a pause like this in invites - when any meaningful ramp-up should generate increasingly larger and consistent invite batches - is unsettling. There may be other reasons why this pause has occurred, not related to production, but every day that passes without more invites, and increasing numbers of them, adds to the body of circumstantial evidence that they are not ramping up in a volume/pace that they were telling us they expected to.

fskott | 2018年2月1日

PS, as has been pointed out, we already have the Q42017 M3 car production/delivery numbers from Tesla, so reiterating those on the call in six days won't add any new information to the mix.

dburton82 | 2018年2月1日

bayareakid2008 - why are you making plans around an estimator based upon unknown results/conditions? This is a new vehicle from a small car manufacturer working on a huge scale-up that is way beyond what they have done before. Why would you think they would be able to accurately predict numbers? Especially when they've been overly-optimistic with even their small production operation prior...seems like a bad move on your part.

Furthermore, there are plenty of other EVs currently on the market. Go to a Chevy dealer and pick something up...or make plans around something that is already on the market. But don't blame a company from which you have not yet even been able to place an order with for your messed-up plans. There are other EVs from which you can choose from that are comparable in range and options.

bayareakid2008 | 2018年2月1日

dburton82, I didn't anticipate just how poorly Tesla would be at ramping up production. The wheels appear to have completely fallen off at this point.

Do you often make large financial decisions without having some kind of plan? Would flying by the seat of my pants be a better method, in your eyes? I, and many others, are working with the best info we've been provided.

There is no EV on the market that is comparable to the Model 3. The Bolt comes closest, but has no fast-charging network, OTA updates and is butt-ugly.

fskott | 2018年2月1日

@bayareakid2008 - Tesla doesn't owe us anything, in my esteemed opinion (no IMHO here!), but the delays in ramping up may be shaping up to be the most epic Tesla Fail so far. And that sucks for Those Of Us Who Don't Have One In Hand Yet And Would Like To Get One While the Fed Tax Credit Is Still The Full Amount And Available.

The history of the inaccuracies of their car production estimates, as we saw with the S and the awful almost 2-year delay of the X, is dismal and borderline ridiculous. Yet, I/we knew all that when we plunked down our $1k deposit way back when. My personal hope was that they learned from the mistakes with the S and X in production and estimates thereof. Lately, I'm starting to thing there indeed was little learned, or whatever was learned was less applicable to mass production, versus "boutique" production of expensive cars like the S and X.

I will say I agree - the stark absence of any invites right at a moment, over the past 7-10 days, when they're supposed to have at least figured out some way to increase production, is disappointing and smacks of dark clouds on the horizon for future production ramp up (and by extension threatens to push back when my name comes up, which may mess with the fed tax credit amount at that time, which all would just suck tremendously).

What is a little frustrating is that here in the bay area you're starting to see the cars in the wild more often, so it gives you hope when you see one or two a day. But . . . . . . they have to make so so many more of these, and with an Invite Drought in progress, the prognosis looks dismal at the moment for my particular example of the vehicle to show up any time soon (even though I was a line-waiter, in CA. That seems to be mattering less and less almost by the hour.).

Hope I'm wrong.

dsvick | 2018年2月1日

Given what we know about Tesla and their historically optimistic estimates, anyone that is making detailed financial plans and decisions based on an estimate is playing pretty fast and loose with their money. Complaining about it and acting surprised just indicates that you didn't do, or didn't pay attention to, any research before placing your reservation.

dburton82 | 2018年2月1日

bayareakid2008 - Then I guess you are left with the unknowns. Suck it up and deal with it because you're complaining is annoying. You've been given an estimate that is still within presumed range, and all indications so that, at the very least, those invitations are currently being sent out near the end of the given estimates, so there you go. Not sure what you were expecting. This is a new car from a relatively new company embarking on a huge scale-up, quite possibly the largest and quickest scale-up for an automaker ever.

I understand some people are frustrated but your expectations are misplaced. I would love it if I got word from Tesla that I would be able to order a M3 on X date...and if I had wheels I'd be a wagon. For now, I know they're busy with an incredibly complex and constantly changing supply chain...and while I wait patiently I should probably just shut my mouth and when they get to me they'll get to me. Loud and annoying customers only serve one cheapen the product or wear out the people that make it.

KP in NPT | 2018年2月1日

The model 3 forum has become a troll farm.

I guess we knew this day would come.

bayareakid2008 | 2018年2月1日

"You've been given an estimate that is still within presumed range". So incorrect it is laughable. It's patently obvious to anyone paying attention that Tesla is FAR behind even their latest projection of 2500 by end of March, unless you think they will be producing 6 times as many cars by then, which seems like lunacy given the extremely slow ramp to this point.

If their supply chain is constantly changing, it is further proof of poor manufacturing management.

seattlemag | 2018年2月1日

KP..... sadly you are correct :(

dburton82 | 2018年2月1日

bayareakid2008 - no that's reality of manufacturing...which apparently you have no experience with. Have you seen how long it takes to get a new vehicle production-line going? Even for a large manufacturer? Do you wonder why automakers release new models every year that are pretty much the same as the year before? Because the complex supply chain is already established and you don't want to mess that up too much every year because that creates delays.

The luxury most companies have is that they can manufacture in the shadows and delays come and go without anyone ever knowing. When you have a half a million reservations you don't have that luxury because all-of-the-sudden everyone that raised their hand saying "I would like to buy one of those" has no idea what that process looks like.

I suggest you buy a different car because you will never be happy with Tesla. Your time and energy is better spent elsewhere because you are entitled to nothing, despite what mom and dad told you.

Webcrawler | 2018年2月1日

That sound about right. I was guessing about 500/week right now...

bayareakid2008 | 2018年2月1日

Dburton82, your entire comment further points the Tesla being extremely poor manufacturers of cars. The rest of the industry knows to make changes on the fly, whilly nilly, because they know it would harm their supply chain.

I suggest you stick to the topics at hand and try not to resort to personal insults based on usernames. It reflects poorly on you.

burdogg | 2018年2月1日

Tesla can't do anything right and you still want the car?

Man so many holes in this argument at this point, the ship should sink.

By the way, if the 3 has a very slow ramp, then the tax credit will survive another quarter, thus giving a cut off of full until end of Sept - why do we think that if the ramp is struggling, the the tax credit will be over in June??

Last, you do realize invites have not always gone out every week - they skipped the week of Jan 8 too. It may just depend on how many actually configure vs how many delay on each set of invites. Who knows...but man, this is old. Someone please get a pacifier.

Shock | 2018年2月1日

"You've been given an estimate that is still within presumed range, and all indications so that, at the very least, those invitations are currently being sent out near the end of the given estimates, so there you go."

Today is February.

To the best of my knowledge there are still people with estimated delivery availability dates of January. Tesla is, as usual, in over its head. The question is, as usual, how much, and for how long.

"If their supply chain is constantly changing, it is further proof of poor manufacturing management."

I have yet to read anything plausible from anybody with even an inkling of manufacturing exposure that is consistent with the ramp up claims Tesla has made and keeps missing. Most people simply have no idea what goes into manufacturing a product (it doesn't have to be a car). They seem to think if you can make 100 cars/week you just turn the dial on all your equipment and now you're at 1000 cars/week.

A major risk with Tesla's approach, and I am not saying this has happened, is that when you go to production with immature product, as Tesla has definitely done and I am saying (look at all the problems with the model 3--not just software, but also hardware; people getting parts replaced, etc) is that one day you end up going to production with an integral and very expensive part and a few months or years down the line you realize oops, we need to recall these. Recalls are wildly expensive and tesla's push to get incomplete product out the door means their ongoing costs to support that product already in customers' hands is going to be exorbitantly expensive. Already the support claims, for the same number of cars on the road, are substantial.

You don't see anything like this from Toyota. It knows better. Ford knows better. So does GM.

So all our estimators are going to be updated soon and, as always, will be bumped back another several months. Until next time when they are bumped again.

bayareakid2008 | 2018年2月1日

Burdogg, that is not what I said. I said they are poor manufacturers. As in, they are horrible at supply chain management and quality control, at least to start. Given what happened with the S/X, they will eventually figure it out, but it will just take a few years.

rxlawdude | 2018年2月1日

Sigh. Tesla should cancel those with reservations that spend an inordinate amount of time bitching about how Tesla is a horrible manufacturer or purposely dishonest.

Hi_Tech | 2018年2月1日

Wow granny, what big teeth you have!
These numbers on insideevs are so far off for the Teslas.
For one thing, S and X did about 100k /yr, which is about 8k/ month. If we assume about 30-40% in US, that's still about 3-4k/ month. This report assume 1,500. Very wrong! So why should we assume they know what they are talking about for Model ?

sbeggs | 2018年2月1日

I think they may have produced 3,500 in January...
Just a guess.

shank15217 | 2018年2月1日

They have VINs up to 10K now so I think we're up to 6k to 7k produced.

phil | 2018年2月1日

Hi_Tech - What you are missing is that Tesla's deliveries vary widely by month. Insideevs estimates 1,500 for January X and S deliveries, and their record for accuracy is quite good. Tesla did not sell 3,000 Model X/S in January 2018.

Hi_Tech | 2018年2月1日

Phil- what you are missing is that they guess for 2 months, get out completely wrong, and then add in the figures for the 3rd to align with quarterly reported amounts, as evidenced by their assumed figures last year.
Looking at last year's figures, I see 48k S and X sold in US. Which means roughly 4k/ month average.

phil | 2018年2月1日

No, they don't. But feel free to tell yourself whatever you have to to feel good about Tesla.

Shock | 2018年2月1日

"Sigh. Tesla should cancel those with reservations that spend an inordinate amount of time bitching about how Tesla is a horrible manufacturer or purposely dishonest."

Why? Think about what you said. It makes no sense, how does that benefit Tesla?

minervo.florida | 2018年2月1日

Tesla is building the most advanced production line on the planet, I believe Elon said 3 phases, so many robots( thousands).
There will be production issues for months, relax, sit back and let them work it out.

rdavis | 2018年2月1日

I'm not sure I buy the numbers posted in the article as Tesla stated in its Q4 deliverable that it had 860 model 3 in transit for deliver to owners at the end of the quarter that would be counted in Q1 2018. So if they are saying they only delivered 1,875 for January, that would put the January product at 1,000 once you subtract the 860 that were already in transit. Now, just looking at the online spreadsheet that is tracking invites, that doesn't seem to "jive" with a production number in the 250 per week range...

Who knows for sure.. I just take the attitude of it will be what it is and if you don't like it you can move on to something else. For me, the longer the better as I want white interior and I don't know if I get my invite that I can actually hold off and not jump on the black interior to have it now.

rdavis | 2018年2月1日

To add to the above, in the Q4 report they were anywhere from 700 - 1000 per week at the end of the quarter, so a drop off to 250 per week would major fall off.

Maybe the key point is the word Delivered and not Produced. They may have only delivered 1,875, but may have produced much more than that number... they are two separate things.