Forums

10,000 Model 3s have now been made - Bloomberg

10,000 Model 3s have now been made - Bloomberg

Although you don't need me to tell you that, anyone can check for themselves

www bloomberg com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

I think 10,000 is a significant milestone. 100,000 will be an even better one :)

According to Bloomberg, the weekly production rate has increased for the first time in 3 weeks, now estimated at 723 per week, but still below the peak of about 940.

Tesla plan hit 2500 per week, the week after next. We'd all like to see that happen.

bernard.holbrook | 2018年3月16日

I am really looking forward to the weekly build rate climbing. There is good news on the horizon with the German line coming up...

Even at 2500 per week it will take a long time to get to me.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 2018年3月16日

Yeah, sure... Let's cling to the knowledge that the crack team of editors at Bloomberg will keep us informed of everything Tesla. Including their imminent failure and impossible odds of survival.

bj | 2018年3月16日

@Red - Bloomberg has copped a lot of flak in this forum, but do you have a better or more reliable analysis of publicly available data to estimate Model 3 production? If so please post the link or reference.

You might be happy only having the quarterly updates from Tesla, but Model 3 is the car that is upending the auto industry and is attracting rare levels of interest on a global scale. It is a car that truly fascinates and excites people. That means there is a lot of interest in trying to work out what's happening between the Tesla quarterly updates. And I don't blame people for their curiosity one bit.

I for one thank Bloomberg for having a crack by applying some decent logic with the relatively few independently verifiable quantitative sources of data we have. They've done a lot better than people who just make stuff up using no logic and no independently verifiable information.

Ericschmidt | 2018年3月16日

Bloomberg is one of the best analytical brands for the public. Don’t shoot the messenger.

johnnykadi | 2018年3月16日

I think the peak was 1052

thedrisin | 2018年3月17日

Tesla could easily put an end to all the speculation and debate by publishing weekly or monthly figures.

olsonfamily5 | 2018年3月17日

@thedrisin...I don't think Tesla would want to have the stock price move according to actual facts, until the facts get better.

I respect this company, am a shareholder, and I would be concerned had I not configured recently. I can't imagine what 400,000th in line must feel like.

thedrisin | 2018年3月17日

@olsonfamily5. So, it is better that stock price move on speculation and rumor instead of facts? As a shareholder (in any company), would you not like to know the facts of the company you own shares? Are you investing or speculating? (I assume speculating with negative EPS).

johnyi | 2018年3月17日

To be fair, I can't think of any publicly traded company that announces sales on a weekly or monthly basis. They all report that stuff quarterly. So why the expectation that TSLA should? The only ones that have this unrealistic expectation are those of us waiting in line for our cars...

ReD eXiLe ms us | 2018年3月17日

bj: Precisely. I am happy with quarterly reports from Tesla. I don't expect daily, weekly, or monthly production updates from Chrysler, Ford, or GM either. It doesn't matter if they have the information internally. Some data can reasonably be considered as 'proprietary information' within a publicly traded company. This is especially true of highly shorted technology firms in Silicon Valley. Because I know Tesla must be extremely careful to avoid the snares and pratfalls that ruined other new automobile manufacturers that have been forced into premature failure in the past 100 years or so.

Hackett
H.A.L.
Halladay
Hamlin-Holmes
Hammer-Sommer
Handley-Knight
Hanger
Hanover
Hanson
Harrie
Harroun
Hartman
Harvard
Haynes
H.C.S.
Heine-Velox
Henney
Henry J
Hertz
Highlander
Hoffman
Hollier
Holmes
Holtom
Hoskins
Howard
Hudson
Huffman
Hummer
Hupp-Yeats

There's a lot more where those came from, including Tucker and DeLorean, which were both unfairly targeted by the U.S. government over trumped up charges for imaginary wrongdoing...

https://en.m.wikipedia
.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States

olsonfamily5 | 2018年3月17日

@thedresin.. Yes, In my opinion it is better for Tesla to have it's stock price move on speculation when the facts are under expectation. Of course investors want facts, I simply expressed doubt Tesla wants to share the facts.

Earl and Nagin ... | 2018年3月17日

@bj,
Micromanagement and short term reporting leads to short term thinking and inability to take risks because failure is punished much harsher than success is rewarded. Less frequent reporting enables mitigated risks to be taken because it allows time to allow the mitigations to take place following the inevitable failures that will occur.
Can you imagine what the haters would have said if Tesla had reported that they shut down the line for a week in January when it was happening? ". . . Tesla shutting down . . . ", ". . . the end has come for Tesla . . . ", ". . . another deLorien . . . ", . . .

mos6507 | 2018年3月17日

The stock-market always reflects short-term-thinking anyway. It's sort of deer-like herd mentality. Easily spooked.

Earl and Nagin ... | 2018年3月17日

"It's sort of deer-like herd mentality. Easily spooked".
So stealthy approach is necessary.

johnse | 2018年3月17日

@mos
I’d say that most Tesla investors seem to be very much in for the long haul because that is the expectation Tesla’s leadership has set.

Volatility in the share price is certainly affected by the news cycle, but that is noise caused by the short term minority holders. Occasionally a large investor will make a significant sale to lock in some profits, like Fidelity did recently, but the bulk of the shares never trade and in many cases the large investor will continue to acquire shares at a steady rate to use dollar cost averaging to smoothe the volatility.

bj | 2018年3月17日

@Red & @Earl and Nagin - can you quote anywhere where I have said or expressed a desire that Tesla provide more frequent official updates of Model 3 production? You can't, because I haven't.

But that doesn't change the fact that I'm interested in what's happening between quarters (like a zillion other people) and that curiosity is perfectly valid. The ongoing fascination here with VINs is evidence that it's not just me. So it's not surprising someone like Bloomberg want to scratch that itch. I think they've done a decent job of it, more robust than lots of other commentary.

The scientist in me is also interested to see how close Bloomberg's analysis ends up being to Tesla's actuals. If they are within 10% for a few quarters that will be tremendous vindication for their method. If they miss by a wide margin, it will be interesting to see if they attempt to modify their method and work out why they got it so wrong.

So if you are happy with quarterly Tesla updates then great, sit back and don't read Bloomberg. But let other people be curious, even if you aren't.

bj | 2018年3月17日

@Earl & Nagin - "Less frequent reporting enables mitigated risks to be taken because it allows time to allow the mitigations to take place following the inevitable failures that will occur."

The counter-argument to this is that transparency is the best disinfectant, and that listed companies have an obligation to disclose market-material developments as they occur (and not just on a quarterly clock) so that all stockholders have the same information at the same time.

The risk is that if companies don't share such information with all stockholders simultaneously, you'll have a growing pool of people "in the know", since very little can ever be kept completely secret for any substantive period of time. More and more people within a company might know something price-sensitive, then some of that would leak, etc.

So you'd have a growing pool of "informed" investors who might legally trade on that information since they are not employees of the company or otherwise privileged information holders, and another pool of "not-informed" investors who have no idea. That's not good for stock market transparency or fairness. Everyone should be able to trade on the same information at the same time.

Listed companies in Australia have an ongoing continuous disclosure obligation to report market-material developments as they becomes known in order to avoid that problem. It is part of the listing rules. US-based companies which move to or list in Australia get a bit freaked out by this, because no such obligation exists under US listing rules, and they aren't used to it.

Haggy | 2018年3月17日

"Tesla could easily put an end to all the speculation and debate by publishing weekly or monthly figures."

They could, but figures for what? Most companies publish monthly sales figures. Dealers play games to support this. In order to keep the numbers up, that means even selling some cars at a loss at the end of the month to make room for new ones. Tesla on the other hand doesn't publish monthly sales figures so if they send out a large batch of cars in the middle of the first month of a quarter and they arrive in another country, they may not count as sales for that month but will for the quarter. That gives Tesla more room to plan strategy instead of playing games, although it still leaves them with an incentive to produce cars for Fremont pickup at the end of a quarter.

If companies published production figures instead of sales, people would cry foul since it wouldn't indicate what was actually sold. In Tesla's case, production numbers per month could actually be meaningful. But it's not standard information to report. The problem there is that if Tesla plans to finish installing something near the end of a month that will double throughput, then telling what production was as of the day before will give the wrong impression.

Tesla's ramp up plan includes milestones, and as each is accomplished, there will be a change in throughput, but it's not necessarily the case that as they are working on any part, production will improve until they complete it. So if there are two bottlenecks, the worst one lets through only 80% of the cars that can make it through the second one, and the process for the first one is changed to let cars through five times as fast, that might show a 20% increase, while doing the same down the line to the second one would produce a 500% increase. As long as there's any bottleneck, the total number of cars won't exceed the number that can make it through that step, so it might be that many other parts are improved with no visible increase in output, but getting that final one done could be dramatic.

As long as people look at data and try to extrapolate, or see linear growth when it's really exponential or logarithmic, then the numbers are meaningless. Tesla isn't trying to hide anything. They are trying not to mislead people. While releasing monthly production figures would remove speculation as to those specific monthly figures, it would create even more speculation with respect to Tesla's progress.

carlk | 2018年3月17日

Earl and Nagin Absolutely agree that being micromanaged by the Wall Street is the biggest problem with many of those corporations. Jeff Bezos famously never attends quarterly earning calls and never holds analysts meetings. He thought that is just a waste of time. He's definitely right on that from performance of both Amazon's business and stock price. He does meet with long term investors who share with him his view of the company though.

johnse Also agree with you that Tesla investors are the type who are looking for the long term. There are a lot naysayers and FUDsters out there making noises but what they think is irrelevant. Tesla knows what is good for the company.

Mttcoco | 2018年3月17日

My 11026 VIN is on my completed car and is on the way to Southern California from the factory as we speak. Picking it up next week.

SamO | 2018年3月17日

Congratulations @Mttcoco! I took delivery of VIN 11XX on December 29.

rxlawdude | 2018年3月17日

@SamO, you mean I beat you by a day? Got VIN 138x on Dec 28. :-)

JustSaying | 2018年3月17日

Mttcoco vin 11026. not sure this a valid question Is it a 2017 or 18

SamO | 2018年3月17日

My original delivery date was 12/28 but by the time I called back, all the delivery slots had been taken, so I elected to take delivery after work on the 29th and then drove to San Diego that night.

Nice 130 mile drive right off the bat.

:-)

Mttcoco | 2018年3月17日

JustSaying - I'm assuming it's a 2018, as it was just built. To clarify - My VIN is in the 11000s, not 1100s.

Mttcoco | 2018年3月17日

Thanks SamO!

Oh, and my VIN is actually 11029, not 11026.

phil | 2018年3月17日

johnyi | March 17, 2018 "To be fair, I can't think of any publicly traded company that announces sales on a weekly or monthly basis. They all report that stuff quarterly."

Monthly sales announcements are standard in the auto industry. Toyota, GM, Ford, Mercedes, Nissan, VW - pretty much all the major auto makers. But not Tesla.

Dwdnjck@ca | 2018年3月17日

11188 picking up Monday. It is already in San Diego.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 2018年3月17日

bj suggested, "The counter-argument to this is that transparency is the best disinfectant, and that listed companies have an obligation to disclose market-material developments as they occur (and not just on a quarterly clock) so that all stockholders have the same information at the same time."

That almost makes sense, until you realize it doesn't. Just as many people accuse Tesla of 'not being transparent enough' as there are those who feel 'Tesla won't shut their big mouths'. Neither group can or will ever be happy. That's why Tesla changed their strategy for dealing with them four years ago. Better that neither side happy, because that keeps Tesla out of trouble with the Securities and Exhange Commission (SEC), one of the government agencies that deep-sixed Tucker 70 years ago. It doesn't stop either side from starting rumors about there being 'something wrong' at Tesla, and they were going to do that anyway, anyhow, with or without complete, accurate information. So Tesla loses nothing in the exchange by simply keeping their mouths shut. They do gain the satisfaction of knowing they can't be honestly accused of Securities violations.

Those who are impatient will stomp their feet and mope. Those who are demanding will make $#!+ up. Let them. No need to attempt to prove a negative, or a compound triple negative phrased in FAUX NewsSpeak.

"Don't you think someone should or shouldn't have possibly known to warn someone of what wasn't known the day before you didn't know about it, and who ordered the coverup of who didn't and why?"

God. 2... 3... 4... Damn.

Carl Thompson | 2018年3月17日

@ReD eXiLe ms us:
"... there are those who feel 'Tesla won't shut their big mouths'. "

Really? Can you give us examples of people who have complained that Tesla gives customers and investors too much information? I'm not sure I believe this.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 2018年3月17日

Carl Thompson: I'm reminded of a 40+ year old retort by Chevy Chase on SNL's Weekend Update. Last time I used it here, people didn't remember the old joke. Such a shame, because it is a good one, you ignorant [DUNCE].

Anyway, you are active enough here to have seen such statements made on a regular basis. Typically, they are made by those who are specifically complaining about Elon Musk and Autopilot. There are at least three threads in this section of the forum alone where they use it as an example of how he should be 'reigned in' or of how and why Tesla should 'under promise and over deliver'. That sounds like a call for a muzzle, or to outright lie instead of stating ultimate plans or goals, or a hope that Tesla will simply shut the [FLOCK] up for a while, so people can catch their breath. God. 2... 3... 4... Damn.

Carl Thompson | 2018年3月17日

@ReD eXiLe ms us

They're not complaining that Tesla gave them too much information. They're complaining that Tesla gave them _bad_ information. But I guess that still counts so good point.

olsonfamily5 | 2018年3月17日

I got VIN 122xx today!

Mttcoco | 2018年3月18日

122xx? That's a 1200+ jump in VIN's from mine 5 days ago. AWESOME!

noleaf4me | 2018年3月18日

@Mttcoco - if they really made 1200 in the past 5 days.....that would be so awesome! Would prove they are on the cusp of 2500 / week

Xerogas | 2018年3月18日

Unfortunately, VINs are not assigned sequentially, so one cannot infer anything from the jump.

SamO | 2018年3月18日

+1 @Xerogas

Tesla-David | 2018年3月18日

The VIN on our 2012 MS delivered on 1/2/13 was 2XXX, which amounted to ~2000 MS's the first year of production for the MS, so if they are already up to 10,000 M3's they are making serious progress.

carlk | 2018年3月18日

I think Tesla is geared toward delivering the 199,999th Tesla on 3/31.

JustSaying | 2018年3月18日

carlk Agreed and then a slew of midnight greys, pedal to the metal....

ReD eXiLe ms us | 2018年3月18日

Carl Thompson: Did I mention...? [FLOG] you, Man!

You guys declare ALL information from Tesla is 'bad'. Make up your mind -- if nothing they say is true, and nothing they say can be counted on, and everything they have ever told anyone was purposely misleading, then why the [HECK] would you demand to hear anything else from them at all? Hey, where are the 'under promise, over deliver' statements from Mary Barra regarding their EV plans at GM of late?

Carl Thompson | 2018年3月18日

@ReD eXiLe ms us

It's not too hard to understand. People want it to be _accurate_ when Tesla makes statements and not incorrect and misleading information that is worth nothing.

For example Tesla said unequivocally that they would be making making 2,500 Model 3s / week 13 days from now. If they pull what they did at the end of Q4 and give us "well for 3 hours on Thursday we were making Model 3s at an equivalent rate to 2,500 / week" then that it's understandable if people complain that Musk and Tesla are dishonest.

And don't give me that rationalization that from some perspective it's technically correct. That kind of excuse would in no way be acceptable for my company or your company and we shouldn't just give Tesla a pass when they pull crap like that.

Hopefully this will be moot and they'll _really_ be making Model 3s at a sustained rate of 2,500 / week.

johnse | 2018年3月19日

@CT “Tesla said unequivocally that they would be making making 2,500 Model 3s / week 13 days from now.”

No, they did not say that.

From their earnings call: (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4144365-tesla-tsla-q4-2017-results-earn...):
“As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly production rate of 2,500 vehicles by the end of March and 5,000 by the end of Q2.”

Elon has also said many times that the predicting the exact week a production milestone will be hit is highly error prone. He did say however that, “...we feel like the error bars around the unit volume predictions are getting smaller with each passing week.”

People keep taking estimates and projections as cast-in-concrete promises.

Carl Thompson | 2018年3月19日

@johnse

Already making excuses?

For other company these targets _are_ considered promises. It's a big deal when they miss them.

mos6507 | 2018年3月19日

"No, they did not say that."

Whenever I see phrases like this I keep imagining Obi Wan Kenobi in Return of the Jedi saying "what I told you was true, from a certain point of view"

Them making a boast and then having to back-pedal is bad PR, plain and simple. Blaming the general public afterwards for not interpreting things with the proper technical qualifications, whether it be Tesla or its fanbois, is just a non-starter.

jordanrichard | 2018年3月19日

"Target" is just that. Name one car company that says we will have our Tesla killer available for purchase on Sept 5th, 2018. or any other specific date. All you get is "by the end of......" or ".....the beginning of" Audi recently announced that they will have a "etron GT" available in 2 years". Why no set date......? Then there is their MX "killer" the e-tron which launches late this year and then in other global markets to include the U.S. in the first half of 2019. "First half" is Jan to June.

JustSaying | 2018年3月19日

Yoda said, "Do or do not, there is no try." How do you do something without trying to do it first?

johnse | 2018年3月19日

@CT
Not making excuses, just clarifying the words used.

andy.connor.e | 2018年3月19日

@JustSaying

That quote i think comes from something like making and planting a garden on your property. You try to do it but dont finish. You didnt do it. To me, the idea of "trying to do it" is more of an excuse as to why you havent done it yet. Or rather, the justifying statement as to why its not done yet. But there are obviously many MANY examples of this that can be taken many different ways. Thats just my take on it, but does not necessarily determine every single situation.

andy.connor.e | 2018年3月19日

But generally i determine the outcome of a statement that someone is "trying" to do something based on the specific situation. You cannot just judge anything with a generic quote, but rather is a very good thing to keep in the back of your mind. Kind of like when someone says "im on my way" from 10 min away, and they show up 30 min later. You can clearly indicate they were not on their way when they notified you. (maybe im digging too many holes)

Pages