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Model S Reservation Tally

Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

Robert.Boston | 2011年10月27日

In his Business Insider interview, Musk was only willing to commit to 6,500 reservations, which suggests that approximately 1,000 reservations have dropped out.

Volker.Berlin | 2011年10月27日

We will have accurate numbers on Wednesday.

Nicu | 2011年10月27日

Nope, he said that he has to be careful with information as earnings report is soon (2 Nov.) so he will say 6500. The estimates here were always on the high side so we could assume 7000 reservations. The most important thing about that is in fact the present rate of reservations / month (and if it's growing nicely).

MTriantafelow | 2011年10月27日

It doesn't imply that people dropped out. Any discrepancy between our number and the official number is usually caused by people upgrading from a P to an S. If P1 moves over to S500 they don't bump down all the P reservation holder's numbers, P2 just becomes the first P holder to get a car.

They may realign the numbers at some point which would bring our tally back in line with the true number, but for now, we just assume we are about 5 or so percent too high.

SD in the OC | 2011年10月27日

US S #607 Oct 26
US P #5533 Oct 27

michiganmodels | 2011年10月27日

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 607 (October 26, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,533 (October 27, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,556 - October 27, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

Mycroft | 2011年10月27日

Over 100 Signatures in a month. Two months to go for the year. Will they sell out by 12/31? I think so!

Volker.Berlin | 2011年10月28日

@SD in the OC, merely out of curiosity: Do you intend to buy two cars, or did you reserve both "just in case" with the intent to drop one of them when prices and/or delivery dates are released?

sarge7359 | 2011年10月28日

When I dropped by the to put a check down on the Signature, the sales guy mentioned that I could reserve a P then upgrade to Signature. I don't think there is a way to reserve a Signature through the website so they upsell the Sigs by asking the P series folks if they really wanted a Sig. Or something similar.

Afterwards I'd wondered if I would've had 2 numbers if I'd gone through the website first.

I think that's what SD in the OC did; website then upgrade.

The website order form is relatively new, so I doubt the overall numbers are off by much.

Mycroft | 2011年10月28日

There's a huge advantage to reserving a P on the website first and then upgrading. Because you're allowed to use a credit card for the $5,000 reservation, you'll get your rewards and then use a check for the $35k upgrade. :-D

ok, so it's not the best deal for Tesla Motors, but I'll take every break I can get. :)

longhorn | 2011年10月28日

US P 5,539 Oct 28th

Mycroft | 2011年10月28日

ok longhorn, now that you have your reward points, you can upgrade to Signature. :-D

longhorn | 2011年10月28日

I wish... unfortunately, it was tough enough to get wife approval on the general production model.

As far as reward points, has anyone tried to reserve 8 general production models, then call and combine them for one signature model? Just a thought.

Mycroft | 2011年10月28日

Ouch. It's one thing to take advantage of an opportunity, it's another to scam. I think that would fall into the latter category.

michiganmodels | 2011年10月28日

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 607 (October 26, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,539 (October 28, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,562 - October 28, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

ckessel | 2011年10月28日

There was a limit of 4 reservations per person at one point.

SD in the OC | 2011年10月28日

Correct, plan to buy the Sig series, but if for some reason it doesn't make sense, for $5k I have a place in the P line.

yphilippe | 2011年10月28日

US S616, Oct.28

michiganmodels | 2011年10月28日

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 616 (October 28, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,539 (October 28, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,571 - October 28, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

maxmindel | 2011年10月29日

I reserved on October 22nd in the US. My reservation number is 5469.

ncn | 2011年10月29日

maxmindel & longhorn -- that's a rate of 70 P reservations in 6 days! That extrapolates to 350 per month if it keeps up.

mcornwell | 2011年10月29日

The last month has seen about 450 P's reserved... no doubt the ride event paid for itself many times over with the additional reservations that resulted. Same for the stock price. It's up over 21% since the ride event. That's about $500m in additional market cap. I think the shorts are starting to get nervous...

Nicu | 2011年10月29日

And there are a lot of shorts out there. About 22% of the total number of shares and about double that of the float (not owned by insiders like Elon).
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest

David M. | 2011年10月30日

Anybody shorting TSLA better get out in the next 60 days. The stock price will likely take a huge positive swing in 2012, as investors equate achieving major 2012 milestones and strong customer demand with Sales > $1.5B in 2013, combined with anticipated profitability in 2013.

I would not be surprised to see TSLA at $60 in Q4 2012.

michiganmodels | 2011年10月31日

Just wanted to move this thread to the top.

Brian10 | 2011年10月31日

Apparently, Elon Musk said today that the Model S is sold out for 2012 production with over 6500 "orders" received to date. This does not seem to correspond with the tally shown in this forum. Any ideas why there is such a big difference? Here is the article on this news:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/morning_call/2011/10/teslas-mode...

michiganmodels | 2011年10月31日

@Brian10 - He mentioned he was "comfortable" committing to "over 6,500 deposits" because he can't comment on public information. Tesla will announce the official number Wednesday night (November 2nd).

GoTeslaChicago | 2011年10月31日

I think he's being conservative and cautious so as not to risk over promising.

He said "over" 6,500 which is a true statement, but allows that some reservations may cancel or be double counted, as in the case of some reservation holders who have both a Signature reservation and a general production reservation, so depending on the price and timing of the delivery they retain the flexibility to choose one or the other.

Mike Fowler
Chicago
P# 5520

brianman | 2011年10月31日

@michiganmodels

Have there been any examples on the forum(s) of individuals reserving 2 or more of the same type (2 S or 2 P)? I'm curious if they get a single reservation number or multiple. I presume multiple.

assap6 | 2011年10月31日

I am #5608 (US general production) as of today.

MikAo | 2011年11月1日

You have to remember to ones who cancel they reservation. I for example jumped from P204 to P134 in the first check-up. Roughly one third either moved to Signature or cancelled. What´s the ratio between these two options, who knows. And how ofter are the check-ups done will affact the tally figures. Hopefully real figures are closer to 7 000 but 6500 orders so far does not really mean much since money is refundable. Some great hick-up in the prosess, delivery delays or BWM bringing similar EV to the market will make figures to change, even drastically.

David M. | 2011年11月1日

@Mika - If I understand your question correctly, we're guessing that the michiganmodels tally is about 5% over due to some reservation holders canceling, or some moving from (P) to (S), etc. I believe the real number is probably around 7,200 right now. We should still hit 10,000 before the first car is delivered. From here on out, I believe the only folks that would cancel and get a refund, have some sort of financial hardship. In the next year or two (and beyond), there won't be any other PEV available to compete with the Model S (except maybe the Model X).

There will be lots of excitement and anticipation in the first half of 2012. Numerous new hybrids, some new plug-in hybrids (Fisker & Prius), and more pure plug-in EVs beginning to ship (eg. RAV4 EV). More public awareness about electric vehicles, etc.

michiganmodels | 2011年11月1日

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 616 (October 28, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,608 (October 31, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,640 - October 31, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

michiganmodels | 2011年11月1日

@brianman - I have multiple Model S' under my name. Tesla assigns one reservation number per car.

Robert.Boston | 2011年11月1日

I expect that there will be further drops when final pricing is announced, and again as people are called to finalize their order (and, presumably, to pony up another chunk of change). Still, how many businesses can sit here on November 1 and say that 100% of their next year's production of anything is completely spoken for? Besides the Red Sox....

jfeister | 2011年11月1日

Here's a projection of reservations based on michiganmodels's data. (Hopefully I get the html right).

jfeister | 2011年11月1日

hmm... let's try that again.

jfeister | 2011年11月1日

ha ha, ok. getting closer. (I've never posted an image with html before) :)

jfeister | 2011年11月1日

And...One more time.

jfeister | 2011年11月1日

Oh lord...sorry for the spam guys. Wish I could delete posts.

mwu | 2011年11月1日

jfeister, out of curiosity how did you come up with the projection line?

Robert.Boston | 2011年11月1日

Hmm, looks to my eye that the October event in Fremont caused both a notch upwards in total reservations (we know it added at least 500 to the queue for Iceland) and a change in the rate of growth. Using a slightly more sophisticated regression model should produce a better fit.

Robert.Boston | 2011年11月1日

Sorry, that should have been 100 to the Iceland queue (at a cost of $500,000).

jfeister | 2011年11月1日

The projection curve was generated using Excel's exponential fit function. This seemed to be a better fit than linear, since there is a definite acceleration in the rate of reservation over the last 6 months. I'm sure there's probably an even more accurate method for making the projection, but I'm no statistician.

There is a bounce around the Model S event in Fremont, and since then the rate seems to have increased noticeably as well.

agiangone | 2011年11月1日

Just to confirm that I spoke to reservation holder 522 for the Signature model at the Sunday event in Manhattan. So the 616 posted above is definitely plausible.

brianman | 2011年11月1日

The October bump was from this...

SSL 183 (October 5, 2011)
SSL = Signature Special List

I recommend removing that from your trending analysis.

When you remove the SSL 189 (that it later became) from the data, the Total and General/P charts look pretty linear.

The S tally (globally) *does* appears to get a slightly improved slope in September.

Peter Spirgel | 2011年11月2日

S620 on 10/31/11

michiganmodels | 2011年11月2日

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 616 (October 28, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,620 (October 31, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,652 - October 31, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

gjunky | 2011年11月2日

Was that last post a Signature #620 or a P 5620?

Mycroft | 2011年11月2日

Yeah mm, I think it should have been S 620. Not that it matters a whole lot. Funny how they're coincidentally so close.

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