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Tesla Semi launching in 2019. Big customer gets viewing

Tesla Semi launching in 2019. Big customer gets viewing

https://electrek.co/2018/08/24/tesla-semi-prototype-spotted-potential-cu...

I think this truck will be in demand as it has safety features(jackknifing and speed) no other semi has.

sosmerc | 2018年8月25日

Where are they going to build them? Maybe at the gigafactory? (there's no room at Fremont)

Mike83 | 2018年8月25日

GF 1 is my guess. They are already using them to transport batteries to Fremont. This is a huge product. Competitors are starting to look at making Semi EVs. This is great news.

Tesla-David | 2018年8月25日

If they get the range up to 600 miles/charge, I think the Semi will be in huge demand, and any long range/short range trucker would love to be behind the wheel of one of these trucks IMHO.

Mike83 | 2018年8月25日

I believe Elon has said they may well be 600 miles in range. The trips they have done have been using the Superchargers along the routes. With EAP maybe I could drive one which I would love to do.

ravisundaramam | 2018年8月25日

Guys 600 mile range grabs the headlines. But big money is on the short range local delivery trucks.

The stop and go city traffic is murder on those diesel behemoths. All the kinetic energy gained by burning expensive diesel gets wasted on the friction brakes. They wear out brakes and burn diesel. They typically travel less than 200 miles before returning to base.

The article implies Tesla need to deliver $1.20 a mile on the highway. That would mean in the city driving, given lower MPG and higher brake wear the local trucks are costing way more than $1.20. And Tesla will give you the same energy usage and the same brake pad wear usage in the city as well as in the highway.

The long distance trucks serve a few years on the high way and then get sold off as local trucks. The resale value is baked into the diesel truck operation costs. When the semi hits the long distance market, it is going simultaneously hit the local truck market too, with smaller battery option. Numbers will change dramatically as the resale value of diesel trucks start dropping.

Mike83 | 2018年8月25日

@ravisundaramam Great info. Thanks. You hit on some points like diesel braking vs. regeneration. Also idling burns fuel. The Tesla Semi looks like a game changer.

ravisundaramam | 2018年8月25日

Recall how diesel won over steam. Fundamentally diesel locomotives were just 2.5 times more efficient than coal burning steam locos. Diesel was more expensive, so final running cost for diesel was half of steam. That was enough for the railroads with huge capital reserves (we are talking about 1938 to 1954) to retire steam. The last batch of steam locos ordered by the Pennsylvania Rail Road made just one run, from the Baldwin Loco Works, Phila to the scrap yard, straight. Express speed, no stops.

All the streamlining, steam electric half breed monsters (steam turbine driving a generator and the electricity turning the traction motors) did not save steam.

Now take a look at the key number for Tesla Model 3. 133 MPGe. Best diesel cars give 35 MPG. You are talking nearly four times cheaper.

Exercise to the diligent reader: Diesel loco running cost was 50% of steam loco. It took 16 years for steam to be driven off the rails. Electric truck running cost is 25% of the diesel truck. How long will it take for the diesel trucks to be driven off the roads?

sbeggs | 2018年8月25日

@ravi,
Thanks for your thought provoking post.

Mike83 | 2018年8月25日
Tesla-David | 2018年8月26日

@ravi Excellent points, thanks for posting.

@Mike83, I also laughed when read that comment in article.

Patrick | 2018年8月26日

Great points Ravi.

IMHO much like the Model 3 the Semi will be yet another massive market disruptor and permanent game changer. Love the way they are quietly doing sneak-peeks now for key prospects, which will likely (and quickly) become raving fans after delivery.

Given all the compelling benefits, and assuming good quality and a good charging solution (both likely based on past history) who would not buy one when the time comes? My guess is very broad and very fast adoption when they hit the market. Can’t wait to the early market share charts!

Uncle Paul | 2018年8月26日

Nothing will make me happier than getting all those smelly and polluting diesels off our freeways and city streets. They are horrible beasts. Loud and filthy.

efuseakay | 2018年8月26日

Tesla should build these out for themselves first so they can use them to transport their cars to customers/delivery centers. Proof of concept so to speak. With all the data to share with potential shipping companies, they’d make a killing.

Mike83 | 2018年8月26日

efuseaday. They are building their own fleet but for transport of batteries from Sparks, Nv. to Freemont CA. which they are doing with the prototypes.
On a side note. GF1 will be all Solar within a year I believe which means no electric bill for manufacturing.

efuseakay | 2018年8月26日

Almost forgot about the battery transporting. :)

Still think they should build out the semi fleet for car shipping too. A lot of car transport companies would be interested in this I bet.

Mike83 | 2018年8月26日

They can use the Tesla Semi with any Trailer such as a car carrier which can carry about 10 Teslas but they are doing something more innovative. I think they are delivering Teslas direct from factory to owner somehow or planning to.

carlk | 2018年8月26日

Look at the large crowd gathered around the semi. It's great to show people in NASCAR country that battery operated vehicle is for real.

Rocky_H | 2018年8月28日

@ravisundaramam, Quote: “Best diesel cars give 35 MPG”

Wow. Good thing I wasn’t drinking my coffee when I read that. Try again. Our diesel TDI Jetta, no matter how hard you drive it, can’t get below 40 mpg. Please stop making up false data to support your thesis.

Mike83 | 2018年8月28日
jordanrichard | 2018年8月28日

Rocky_H +1. I too thought that was way off base. I remember many years ago asking a VW Jetta diesel owner, while he was getting some diesel, what he got for MPG, he said 50.

Let's not stoop to the level of FUDsters and start making stuff up.

Mike83 | 2018年8月28日

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/Diesel2012.shtml

I don't want to argue but the above lists diesel car mileages. 50 seems very high.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086531_diesel-pickup-trucks-from-c...

15 mpg for diesel trucks.

Semis I beleive are around 5 mpg.

Mike83 | 2018年8月28日

Seems expensive to drive around diesel and the costs of maintenance like cleaning injectors is expensive.
What does diesel cost now? 3 or 4 $/gal? Burning cash.

ravisundaramam | 2018年8月28日

" The Jetta 2.0 TDI comes with a 2.0-liter, turbo-diesel engine that receives EPA ratings of 31 mpg city, 46 mpg highway and 36 mpg combined ..." [1]

30/38 combined. 3200lb [2]

Tesla Model 3, 132 MPGe, has a weight of 3800 lb. 600 lb heavier.

Even if that emissions cheater actually gives you 40 MPG, the fundamental argument does not change substantially. Running cost for electric trucks will be at least 3 times cheaper on the highways, 4 to 6 times cheaper in city driving taking into account brake wear. Electric trucks, any electric truck not just Tesla, will kill the diesel trucks once they get the battery packs below 120 $ / kWh. Tesla is at 130 $ now, and others are not too far behind. The transition will be rapid. As rapid as the steam loco to diesel loco transition.

[1] https://www.insidercarnews.com/10-diesel-cars-with-the-highest-mpg/

[2] https://www.edmunds.com/volkswagen/jetta/2006/diesel/st-100544987/featur...

Mike83 | 2018年8月30日

https://electrek.co/2018/08/30/tesla-semi-electric-truck-ruan-iowa-custo...

Great reviews and delivery in 2019 to some customers.

Mike83 | 2018年8月31日

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-supercharger-26-cameras-sleeper-fea...

Convoy mode, 0 to 60 in 5 sec., near infinite brake pads, etc.

Mike83 | 2018年9月2日

I talked with a guy while on a trip who saw the Tesla Semi, short range one, at the SC in Rockllin, CA. A whole crowd took photos. They sometimes stop there to top up off the Solar powered Superchargers if traffic is bad on their jaunt to Fremont. It is really cool looking with 20+ cameras for AP. Somewhat secretive but if they do start production in 2019 this will be a major paradigm shift. The trucking companies are only interested in bigger profits(no diesel or jackknifing) and the lack of drivers. The convoy mode is clever and with the speed they may need the faster lanes. I wouldn't mind drafting in our M3 or MS. How about a convoy mode on the EAP?

sosmerc | 2018年9月2日

"convoy mode" in the high speed lane......hopefully not like lemmings over a cliff when the lead vehicle decides to hiccup :)......

Mike83 | 2018年9月2日

Like the shorts following the fossil fuel dictates, you mean.

sosmerc | 2018年9月2日

Over the cliff for the shorts, I hope. Go Tesla!

Yodrak. | 2018年9月2日

"GF1 will be all Solar within a year I believe which means no electric bill for manufacturing."

Wrong. The fuel cost component of the electric bill man be zero, but the capital and O&M costs are still there and need to be paid.

Mike83 | 2018年9月2日

With MX, MS, M3, Powerwall, Powerpack, AI chips, HD mapping, PV panels, Solar roofs, Tesla Semi, Roadster 2.0, and some new non-disclosed products the Gross sales will add billions to the bottom line. The free energy is just icing on the cake. Not at all concerned about CapX. The shorts should be more concerned with buying back stock they sold short.

Mike83 | 2018年9月6日

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Redding-Wildfire-Shuts-Down-I-5-Pr...

This is a terrible story of semis trapped in a fire and burning to the ground with fuel of these vehicles setting off more fires.
Replacing with Tesla Semis might be a good choice.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-stock-tsla-recovery-elon-musk-positive-a...

More companies like Walmart ordering even more Tesla Semis.

Mike83 | 2018年9月7日

https://electrek.co/2018/09/07/tesla-semi-electric-truck-salt-lake-city-...

Another long trip and I suggest reading Update on the Tesla web page. Some great promotions.

SamO | 2018年9月9日

This is going to move the needle more quickly than passenger cars when it comes to fighting climate changes.

Mike83 | 2018年9月21日

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-trailer-acceleration-spaceship-new-...

A video on Semi with trailer.

I like that there is no fuel to ignite and jackknifing is eliminated.

rlwrw | 2018年9月22日