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How long before EVs become ubiquitous? A Century!

How long before EVs become ubiquitous? A Century!

Saw a Business Insider article on Yahoo:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tesla-isn-apos-t-facing-141500312.html

Some choice quotes:
"Electric cars are a science project"
"An EV is still just a vehicle, and until some level of scale arrives — if it ever does — margins aren't very appealing. Or they're nonexistent. Or simply, you know, negative. "
"Electric cars have lost out to gas-powered vehicles for over a century, but since about 2010 they appear to have entered a tipping-point period where their small market is stable and sustainable. "
"If we look forward another century, it's a fair bet that EVs will constitute a much larger market..."

I've seen some negative prognostications, but all I have to say about this one is...well, I don't really have much to say about it other than to quote Pauli: "That is not only not right; it is not even wrong" ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_even_wrong )

Guess I'll have to add Matthew DeBord to my list of Tesla enemies...

SCCRENDO | 2018年9月9日

I believe the issue is political. EV adoption requires commitment to the environment. Elon is making them mainstream because he has developed cool cars and has been making then more affordable. The other manufacturers are not. Thus fossil fuel incentives need to disappear and EV incentives increase further. There has been a worldwide right wing shift which includes climate change denial. But sanity will ultimately prevail.

Frank99 | 2018年9月9日

I agree. At least in the USA at the moment, anything that wasn't important to the USA in the 1950s isn't seen as important now, and looking at Earth's environmental future wasn't important then and (at least politically) isn't important now. But all the people who supported environmental causes over the last 50 years (well, many of them) are still here, and as soon as they find a way to get traction again will reassert rationality. Well, either then or the moment Iran sinks a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and gasoline prices double.

dmm1240 | 2018年9月9日

Frank, thanks for the Pauli quote, hilarious and useful.

jordanrichard | 2018年9月9日

20 years, perhaps and hopefully sooner. It was 20 years before the car over took the horse.

Madatgascar | 2018年9月9日

Government and industry will never change fast enough. Just like the switch from CFCs - public awareness and action did more than legislation.

The needle is moving because ICEs are losing sales. They see people lining up for Teslas years in advance while ICE car sales wither. Once Tesla becomes profitable and starts making EV pickups and SUVs, it will become a full fledged emergency for the ICE dinosaurs to get serious about EV. Once this happens it will be easier for countries to ban new sales of ICEs outright. I see this happening in a 20-30 year time frame tops.

Madatgascar | 2018年9月9日

Ninja’d by jordanrichard

jimglas | 2018年9月9日

Model X IS a SUV ...

Xerogas | 2018年9月9日

Smartphones had 0% adoption in 2006, then 1% in 2007, 2% in 2008, 4% 2009 (notice the trend of doubling each year). Same pundits said the same things about smartphones, but didn’t understand the power of exponential increase.

Madatgascar | 2018年9月9日

@jimglas, I meant an affordable one... Model Y.

Frank99 | 2018年9月9日

Xerogas -
Precisely. Six years gets you to 64% adoption - think it'd get their attention by then?

SamO | 2018年9月9日

If you come to the center of the influence universe, Southern California and Silicon Valley are chock-full of EVs and are a glimpse into the future.

Sleepydoc1 | 2018年9月9日

They are already common here in CA and I still get asked all the time. People are planning it years in the future as their next car. 5 years for them to saturate a lot of markets. 20 years to be all that is available. Gas stations will be around (but fewer) for probably 30 to 40 years until the last ICE finally burns out. I might live to see that. All my optimistic opinion. I'd love to see it happen 5 to 10 years. I like the 6 years from above for exponential growth. Once the used car market gets saturated with electric cars all over for ice. Lower end buyers could still get a low cost ,maintenance free car as long as they can plug in.

Xerogas | 2018年9月9日

@Sleepydoc1: "Gas stations will be around (but fewer) for probably 30 to 40 years until the last ICE finally burns out."
------
I want to be alive when people start asking “Is it possible to drive coast to coast in an ICE? Where do you fill up? Do you have to tow a big reserve tank behind you?”

Sleepydoc1 | 2018年9月9日

Good point Xero!

Frank99 | 2018年9月9日

I still believe that, in 10 years, 90% of new cars will be EVs. There'll still be ICE vehicles sold - Dodge Chargers, Motorhomes, F-350s, etc - but the vast majority will be electric. It'll be 20 years here in the Southwest before ICE become an endangered species because cars last so long out here. It'll be 40 years before gasoline becomes a specialty item that you have to order online and get delivered next week (Hazardous shipment, doncha know).

It'll be interesting to see if Tesla can grow fast enough to stay in front of this curve. 80 million cars/light trucks are sold a year right now; 90% of that is 70 million. That's seven doublings of Tesla's current production. Or, if they end up with 10% of the market, only 4 doublings. That seems do-able.

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SCCRENDO | 2018年9月10日

@Brain_Remnant. Why do continue to troll interesting discsussion? Get a life!!!

jpcollins9 | 2018年9月10日

Tony Seba of Rethink, a research and think tank for alternative energy and EV adoption, says the inflection point for cost parity will be reached this year for EV adoption. The sales and demand for the Model 3 seems to support that along with the movement by others to add/switch to EVs in their lineups. As the cost advantage increases, the rate of switch should increase. That said, some speculate that as the price of EVs continues to drop, even those who tend to hang on to a car for 10+ years will be motivated to switch earlier. I don't know if 10 years is enough to get to 90% EVs but based on the cost benefit, it seems reasonable. On the other hand, once EVs dominate, the 10 year ownership may change to 15-20 years with an EV. Which means the auto industry long term is toast. Imho.

brando | 2018年9月10日

gas might get really cheap??
Then for the poor, they will drive gas if that is the cheapest option. right?
Sadly, expect the Military to expand warfare so they can buy even more fossil fuels, right?

Will be interesting to see how it develops. I hope we avoid collapse in the mean time.

Tesla-David | 2018年9月10日

@jpcollins9 You nailed it with Tony Seba summary. I believe Tony Seba is right and we are at the beginning of major EV disruption with M3 launch. EVs are here to stay and the next 5 to 10 years should be interesting, but not for ICE vehicles.

Madatgascar | 2018年9月10日

China’s “New Energy Vehicle” program will make them a leader in EV. They will achieve the high volumes first and eventually sell to the rest of the world. Then we will see a race to ramp fastest. Point of inflection is still a few years away but it will switch fast when it does.

jakeom3 | 2018年9月10日

The cell phone adoption analogy is good in some ways, but keep in mind that when the iPhone came out people paid ~$500 for a smart phone, and kept the phone ~2 years. People keep cars an average of almost 12 years now
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/28/car-owners-are-holding-their-vehicles-fo...
So therefore the rate of people replacing ICE cars with electric cars will be much slower. The increase may wind up going from 1% to 2 to 4 to 8%, etc, but that increase may happen over 3 year increments vs. 1 for smart phones.
As someone who loves performance ICE cars, I also think there is a place for us in the future. There will be perhaps 5% of guys like me who fit that category, and will vote with their wallets to buy loud, exciting ICE cars for drives in the hills or to the track, but who daily drive and love their Tesla. For the majority of new car buyers, who see cars as mainly transportation with a good stereo, I am convinced if they just drove a Model 3 they would buy one. All up sides with almost no downsides.

jordanrichard | 2018年9月11日

brando, as a retired Air Force member, I have to chime in on your "....the military to expand warfare" remark.

The military follows the orders of it's civilian leaders, being the President and congress. Don't like what the military is/has done, go talk to your representative. I will leave it at that.

Rocky_H | 2018年9月12日

@Xerogas, Quote: “I want to be alive when people start asking “Is it possible to drive coast to coast in an ICE? Where do you fill up? Do you have to tow a big reserve tank behind you?”

That hadn’t occurred to me yet, but that is an amazing thought!

@brando, Quote: “gas might get really cheap??
Then for the poor, they will drive gas if that is the cheapest option. right?”

+1 Yep. And it’s not just that gas might get cheap as a separate event. The process of conversion to electric vehicles reduces the demand for gasoline, which then reduces the price of gasoline. It’s simple supply and demand equations. So the conversion process of electric vehicles creates its own resistance, slowing down the momentum of that process.

I keep thinking about when I visited my cousin in a small town in Missouri this year. They just bought a new Ford SUV last year. They don’t know anyone in their town with a plug-in vehicle, and they won’t for several years. You could think of it like a restaurant analogy. They may hear about some other kind of restaurant that has great organic food occasionally, but they are perfectly happy going to Bob Evans and Cracker Barrell. Why would they want to change or try something else?

I get that people have hopes of these 10, 20, 30 year major transitions, but I just think that is wildly optimistic versus our human nature to sit comfortably where we are and not want to try new things when what we’re doing continues to work fine just as it always has. And there is kind of the obvious, as has been mentioned elsewhere: that fast transition equals a huge number of millions of vehicles. The old auto companies that could produce that many don’t want to do it, so they will move as slowly as possible. Tesla does want to do it, and they will have demand coming out their ears for a long time to come, but they can only grow so fast, so they can’t meet that production demand by themselves.

josekadams | 2018年9月12日

Thank you all

yassirusa | 2018年10月26日

SCCRENDO, I am one of those insane right wingers that don't believe human activity is affecting climate change in a great number, and I own a Tesla. The reasons I think people should drive electric cars is that we need to end support for Saudi oil, the main sponsor of terrorism around the world. And I agree with you about ending oil companies subsidies, but let's end all subsidies to all companies and let the free market decide. I would still buy a Tesla even if there is no subsidies, and pretty sure many would. Let's start with what we agree upon instead of calling each other names.

kichwas | 2018年10月26日

When Lewis and Clark got back from their journey the “Smart Money” was betting that it would take a 1000 years for my northern cousins to be killed off enough for Anglos to settle out to the Pacifc...

Half a century later the Ohlone were on the outs and San Francisco was a booming town and the Spanish had handed it off the Americans.

30 years ago I could have driven through Silicon Valley and seen mostly farms and the odd military base + defense contractor. I could have, but the general view was there was nothing important down there so why even bother.

When “serious analysts” predict hiw long it will take fir technology to change things... divide by ten...

Earl and Nagin ... | 2018年10月26日

@kichwas,
Pretty much all of the farms left the Si Valley back in the 60's which were closer to 50 years ago but overall, you're correct about the accuracy of experts' predictions.
I'll predict that gasoline cars, like sailboats and horses, will be novelties in 20 years. I'm not an expert, only an original Roadster owner and owner of TSLA at $17/share so what do I know :-)

kichwas | 2018年10月26日

I actually used to drive past a few farms on the 101 down there in the 90s right before some of them became Netscape or Google or somebody... ;)

But basically yeah... never bet against the pace of technology...

SCCRENDO | 2018年10月26日

@yassirusa. I am not knocking you for buying a Tesla and indeed your reasons are valid. However your beliefs regarding human activity and climate change are not consistent with the scientific data. And indeed if you understood the data you would find that there are even more important reasons to support Tesla. That being said if you wanted to boycott the Saudis do you not think that your reasoning is important enough to actually subsidize alternate fuels and rid the world of its dependence on Saudi oil???

Al1 | 2018年10月27日

"Gas stations will be around (but fewer) for probably 30 to 40 years until the last ICE finally burns out."

I think gas stations will go first. Margins are not that great and you still need to pay rent and comply with regulations which will not be on gas station's side. Who will want them in the neighborhood?

At some point in not so distant future people will have to drive to special locations to get gasoline. And this will make ICE cars increasingly impractical.

The new ICE cars sold today will sell cheap as dirt in just about 5-7 years.

Al1 | 2018年10月27日

Oh, and by the way I don't think gas will get much cheaper. There will be other applications to gas, rather than burning it in an ICE. There will be no point in price reduction. Big part of low price is economies of scale. Take away scale and price will have to go up, not down. Especially if we are talking about oil coming from fracking.

ravisundaramam | 2018年10月27日

Oil business is very finely balanced. It is an enormous infrastructure of tanker trucks and refineries and oil tanker ships crossing the ocean. Small things like a hurricane disrupting New Oreleans ports or unscheduled closure of refineries cause shortages and the prices spike. Changing the formulation from winter gas to summer gas creates issues. Small gluts crash the price, small shortages spike the price. It is all very finely balanced.

So if there is substantial reduction in oil consumption, the prices will drop initially, but a few storage facilities close down, a few trucks go off line, and the price will be back. Oil companies are making enormous profits, but due to scale, not due to margins. Reduction in sale volume will result in rounds and rounds of facility closures and the price will stay up.

jordanrichard | 2018年10月27日

All of the reasons cited by the oil companies as to why the price of gas goes up are BS.

We have so much of our own oil, that we are now exporting it. So why then are we still importing it......? Why is it if there is an issue in the Middleeast, that very afternoon, the price of gas goes up.....?

Again, we are exporting oil, so the Middle East could become bone dry, oil production wise, and our cost shouldn’t go up. Of course that won’t happen because the price of oil and gas has nothing to do with actual supply and demand.

kichwas | 2018年10月27日

I wager gas stations will last about as long as stables to “park your horse” lasted after the Model T hit saturation.

Consider that in 1900 almost nobody had a car. I think in the 1920s somewhere they started forcing the last few horses off the road.

On my how long to settle the west not above... remember that by 1850 San Francisco was a bustling city full of Chinese, Spanish, Russians and a few Americans. But in 1848 it was a tiny outpost at the farthest ends of Mexico.
Once the Chinese and African American slaves built the railroad, the entire stretch between East to West coast filled up with cities in less than a decade.

Once the critical mass hits, change happens super fast.

sschaem | 2018年10月27日

Those articles are a waste of time and are paid by manipulators. they are devoid of facts.

And I expect about half of gas stations in the US to close or be re-purposed by 2030.

Number dont lie, gas station cannot survive with even a 20% drop in clients.

jordanrichard | 2018年10月28日

I don’t know about other parts of the country, but here on the East coast, the trend/future in gas stations is making them full blown confidence stores/sand which shops. Done South the Sheetz gas stations and up here in CT there is Cumberland Farms, that people go to get a quick lunch and not necesssarily gas. It has been said by gas station owners or rather thier associations, that they don’t make any real money on gas. It is the drinks and snacks you get inside. Since owning my Model S, Mar 2014, the only time I have been in a gas station store was when stopping to charge in VA where the supercharger is located at a Wawa’s.

Gas station owners would be very wise to add EV chargers because they will enivialbly make more money from snacks/drinks from EV owners than gas buyers, because not all gas buyers pop inside. There is a higher probability of an EV owner spending money on snacks.

Pricee2 | 2018年10月28日

Nine years and two months.