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Model Y Reaction, Wall Street Geniuses and So Forth

Model Y Reaction, Wall Street Geniuses and So Forth

The Model Y is now unveiled. A realistic production timeline has been announced. Pricing is about what one would expect. There's some complaining about where it will be built — pssst, Gigafactory 1 and Gigafactory 3 — which is BS. The unveiling was rather bland, Musk went through the presentation fine, but appeared uninspired by it all. "Here's our story. Here's the car. Go out in the parking lot and take a test ride. Thank you."I suspect the lawyers told him to cool it on the projecting the future front. Blame the stick in the mud SEC for that.

The vehicle itself? The usual suspects — the same cheerleaders of Wall Street's alleged geniuses that denied the Great Recession right up until our quarterly investment reports tanked — were underwhelmed. Tesla stock tanked Friday. Indications are for more tanking Monday. What I'd like to know is what it takes to impress this bunch. When someone goes futuristic — see the early prototypes of Mercedes' E SUV — they complain. When a carmaker goes more conventional — see Audi's E-tron— they call it boring. Just no satisfying that bunch. If you're going to demand that an automaker deliver a "for the masses -- read chap" vehicle, don't expect to get a Rolls Royce with batteries and 19 cupholders. Those desires are mutually exclusive by definition.

The MY has been described as the M3's larger sibling and that's about right. People who took test rides Thursday night were impressed with the MY's performance as per usual for Tesla vehicles. There is no denying that anything Tesla makes flat gets after it in the performance department. Test riders immediately dismissed the seven seat option saying, like Trix, the last row is for kids. Makes sense. The M3 the MY is based on is a small sedan, there is only so much room despite the MY being 10% larger. There is no getting around trying to put more cargo in a box than it can hold. If one wants roomy for all, buy a MX. The MY does offer best in class in storage with the rear seats down.

M3 owners rave about their cars. I expect MY owners will do the same. My personal reaction to the Model Y is about the same as it was for the Model 3 initially — nice, but not for me. I much prefer the MX I currently own. When I replace it—right after the coming refresh—it will be another MX. I love my MX. We went to see Captain Marvel Friday night; when I punched the on button walking through the parking lot afterward and saw my MX light up like a spaceship going active, apropo given the movie I had just seen, I thought after owning it for 18 months I still get a big kick out of the thing. Darned thing is a spaceship with wheels. Falcon Wing Doors? They've never given me a moment's trouble and I have zero complaints about 'em. The thing I dislike most about the MY is the same thing I dislike about the M3 — the missing screen in front of the driver. The main screen on the dash is fine for changing settings, but for info while driving I much prefer the 2nd screen for the driver. Personal preference. Minimalism as a style is fine, just don't touch my driver's screen.

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TESLA'S IMMEDIATE FUTURE

I think it's contingent on the following with the first being by far the most critical:
1. The state of the global economy
2. The mundane task of reducing production costs
3. Changing the political climate in the U.S.

STATE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Storms clouds are gathering. Car sales, all kinds of cars, are down. The industry has been propping up sales with subprime car loans — remember subprime mortgages? The same thing — defaults rates are high and growing. (Who could have thought THAT would happen? Wall Street geniuses indeed). Used car prices for ICE vehicles have collapsed. On the larger scale, there are definite warning signs. The gold is good crowd panicking, though more than usual. What's truly worrisome is some allegedly savvy investors see troubling signs. Major retailers are closing stores. Large companies are starting to lay off workers at every level. The Fed continues to readjust its forecasts for future economic growth downward. The Atlanta Fed's running GDP estimate, for example, currently shows virtually no economic growth in 2019Q1. This is not good. Most everyone sees zero to negative growth worldwide and in the U.S. in 2020; some think the bottom could fall out later in 2019.

When it comes to Tesla, this might be the reason for Musk's sudden conservatism. In the midst of the layoffs last year, Musk said one reason was to make Tesla recession proof meaning the company could weather the storm. I don't think he was kidding. Being a high end automaker, Tesla is more vulnerable than economy carmakers. "Honey, put down the Consumer Reports. You're just going to have to wait a year or so before you decide whether a Model S or the Mercedes is what you want. We just can't chance it right now." I think Tesla now has the strength to weather a recession, but it's still troubling. If some of the more dire prognostications come to pass — see former Reagan Economic Chief David Stockman — everybody is going to be in trouble. CNBC hosts don't even want to put Stockman on any more because his dire warnings upsets their preferred picture of rainbow, sunshine and a pot of gold in every investor's house.

Any way you slice it, the intermediate term economic picture doesn't look anywhere near as rosy as you know who trumpets (pun intended).

REDUCING PRODUCTION COSTS
Tesla aims to hit $100 per KwH on its battery packs by 2020. That's fine, but there's still the little problem of getting through 2019 in what could be a difficult year economy wise. One-hundred bucks per KwH is the Holy Grail of EV production because it puts the sales cost on par with comparable ICE vehicles. Once EVs hit that milestone it will be game over for ICE vehicles; they will no longer be able to compete with electric cars. They already lose on performance, fueling and maintenance costs, but that sticker price is still a remaining hurdle.

But that all starts in 2020. There is still 2019 stock get through. Right now, Tesla is dependent on the M3, the MS and the MX. Tesla is getting better and better at turning out M3s, see Bloomberg's M3 production page, Tesla is ahead of schedule in hitting the 7,000 per week M3 production goal by the end of this year. The $35,000 M3 is finally available, but not without pain. IMO Musk's real goal in "going internet on sales" was to squeeze costs by eliminating the commission structure for people manning Tesla's stores. Tesla has backed off its close-the-stores mantra somewhat, but the commissions are still gone.

CHANGING THE POLITICAL CLIMATE
Our government in its infinite wisdom, crafted a terrible EV bill in 2010. The goal was nice but the lawmakers' vision of the future was flawed. At that time, EVs didn't really exist. Tesla was a small boutique shop turning out a few roadsters a month. Toyota was fooling around with the Prius. The Chevy Volt wouldn't show up for another year. So, Congress figure that offering a federal tax credit of $7,500 for the first 200k customers of an auto company would help spur the market. It did help in lessening the cost to make EVs more attractive to buyers, but nobody anticipated Tesla. Last year, Tesla blew through the 200,000 ceiling, so did GM a few months later. Both companies are now in the phase out of the tax credit where customers will no longer get the full $7,500 tax credits. Customers of drag-their-feet automakers like BMW still get 'em because they didn't try to make and sell EVs. Tesla and GM are being penalized for leading the way.

How to fix that? Two ways: 1) eliminate the 200k cap for the tax breaks and set a deadline for the . The tax breaks, btw, are minimal in terms of impact on the federal budget @ around $7.5 billion; or 2) eliminate the tax break for every automaker. The downside to that is it would slow adoption of EVs until around 2022 when the entire industry manages to hit the $100 KwH per battery pack goal.

On a wider scale, we need a government dedicated to addressing climate change top to bottom. For example, the tax credit for installing solar panels on one's home, which makes EVs from those homes even cleaner in GHG emissions, is necessary to defray some of the upfront costs. The Trump administration is hostile to it. They are also hostile to adoption of renewable power sources at the grid level as well. This needs to change.

Tesla is the first U.S. automaker in 100 years to get as far as it has gotten. The company now employs 40,000, mostly in America. Why is it suddenly verboten for government to support a native business success story? The government still gives established, gigantic oil companies subsidies/tax credits of all kinds. Why not incentivize our two auto companies in a like manner? Or utilities that are moving in the same direction at the grid level? Or companies that are moving to self power their operations?

Why? Trump is why. He and his cronies need to go. Yep, that's a political argument, but so what? It's true.

Tesla-David | 2019年3月17日

@dmm1240, as usual excellent summary. I do take exception to your dislike of the M3, while I shared your concern initially for the missing screen in front of the driver. It actually took me very little time behind the wheel of our M3 back in February 2018 to get used to the M3 15" screen display, and can say unequivocally that I absolutely love our M3 more each day, and am sure that the MY will also be loved by adopters looking for a more compact SUV.

Thanks for your thorough analysis of Tesla's position going forward. I agree 2019 may be a challenging year. I hope the M3 deliveries to Europe and China have a positive impact for Tesla's profitability and bottom line. I totally agree about your take on Drumpf and the GOP in general being a bottleneck on EV adoption. He definitely needs to be gone for so many reasons.

carlk | 2019年3月17日

Don't worry Tesla is doing everything right this time around. The Model 3 is already designed for easy manufacturing the Y will be even better. Everything learned from Model 3 will be applied to the new design. Unlike those pundits Elon is a super smart person. He was trail blazing the first time around but he now knows everything he needs to know. He will not make the same mistake again. The design of Y just confirmed that. That Tesla is taking orders with configurations not reservations is another indication they have a very confident production road map set already. We'll find out about the rest as time goes by.

In the political front I saw in the news yesterday an obscure (but may not be for long judging from what I hear) democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yand giving speech in San Francisco with thousands of people attending. Among many things he said that made good sense is his center piece univeral minimum income which he thinks is needed as technology and automation is in the process of making a lot of traditional jobs disappear. One thing he said that made me think was he said Trump is not the cause but the symptom of current problems. Trump got elected not by his "base" (those right wing fanatics or racists - I added this one). It's those in the Midwest affected by the change who are confused of the future and questioned their self worthiness got him elected. Trump just harvested those discontents but with the wrong messages and solutions. Fix the problem (UMI is one way to) then we will not need to worry about Trump or anyone like him.

carlk | 2019年3月17日

That's Andrew Yang.

dtodd16 | 2019年3月17日

The unveiling was bland because the Y simply looks like a 3 hatchback. Close to the same both outside and inside. There was excitement around the 3 because it was totally new in every way. We were told that it would share approximately 75% of the 3's parts, but I think people were still hoping it would look at least a little different, I know I was. Maybe I'll feel differently when I see one in person, or at least a picture of the 3 and Y side by side.
Also, it was a one pony show since there were no other surprises, as many had predicted. Elon did his best.

dmm1240 | 2019年3月18日

TeslaDavid. I agree, my affinity for the driver's screen is nothing more than personal preference. Obviously, like you, a lot of people decide the center screen is fine.

Carlk. Here's something that brought me up short I came across a few months back in relation to Mr. Yang's comment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts 47% of the current job classifications in its database will be gone in 30 years. Robots, automation and AI are going to decimate what we think of as the social contract — you must work to eat — which in turn is sure to cause severe social and economic unrest unless we prepare for the transition.

I use this example a lot: the Industrial Revolution. The invention of a practical steam engine combined with a few other new things destroyed a social/economic system that had been in place for centuries. It happened here in the U.S., but as a new country we were able to adapt somewhat better than in Europe. With 60% of various state populations engaged in growing and distributing food, economic and political power rested in the hands of the landed aristocracy. The aristocrats rented out their lands to tenant farmers who grew the food. The aristocrats raked in the cream in rents. What middle class there was consisted of shopkeepers who had trained in one discipline or another (i.e. making shoes, silver tableware (see Paul Revere's day job), etc). The rest were laborers who did various low paying tasks. The concept of a "job" as we think of it now didn't exist.

The steam engine made it possible for a factory to turn out more pairs of shoes in a week than 1,000 cobblers could produce in a year. The shoes were cheaper as well. Of course, this made cobblers, silversmiths, even tailors obsolete. Tailors, for example, still exist today, but the masses then and now go to stores to buy clothing. The coming of agricultural machines did away with the need of a great number of laborers to till the land and they were out of work. The dispossessed flocked to the cities and wound up working for next to nothing in the new factories. Capitalist factory owners and the bankers who funded them grew rich; the aristocracy lost its power and wealth. In the cities, it was common to see four families occupy a single room in a tenement. It was a miserable existence for most; read any Charles Dickens novel for a flavor of the times.

The crisis lasted for 65 years, just short of three generations. Eventually, factory laborers organized, fought for and secured reasonable wages and hours. The machines that had destroyed millions of professions created a new fangled thing called a job where accountants tabulated figures for their capitalist owners, salesmen spread out to sell the goods their company made to stores that appeared to sell the new goods, middle managers were hired to supervise all this, etc. In the end, the Industrial Revolution created more lucrative incomes for a larger percentage of a given nation state's population. Life was good again. But those 65 years years to adjust... not good.

We're in the middle of a similar disruption now. Factory jobs have been disappearing for decades. Worldwide, factory employment peaked in 1979 and has gradually declined ever since. Modern computer power makes it possible to track an individual pair of shoes from production through shipping to the user - be it via a retailer or a direct delivery from a company warehouse - eliminating the need for all those people who spent their days tabulating production, sales and income. A modern CEO can call up any data he wants on the desktop computer on his desk.

Robots displace more factory workers every day. We're on the verge of self driving trucks that deliver goods to destinations that will decimate the working class by eliminating trucking jobs.

Even worse, the rise of AI will reach deep into the middle class destroying incomes. Two examples. Most law firms use junior associates and paralegals to perform tasks like looking up precedents to argue a case in court. AI will make it possible for an attorney to call up precedent cases by simply giving his computer an order. Example two. AI is being used to pore over the reams of data being created to spot trends, etc. using algorithms. One scientist mused in an article I saw just yesterday was musing whether AI is making him obsolete.

Isaac Asimov spent his career writing about humans coexisting with robots. The main theme was that robots and humans had a not always peaceful partnership. In a movie out now, Captain Marvel, an entire civilization is governed by an AI intelligence that basically orders the humans around.

There were also science fiction novels and so forth (see Star Trek) where jobs became an option. You opened a restaurant if you want, join Star Fleet if you wanted adventure, but everything humans need is created out of thin air in those gizmos that offer up a hot cup of tea on order and so forth. Think of 3D printers as a crude forerunner of what's to come.

All of which is to say: We've got trouble coming because a lot of "jobs" are going to disappear sooner than we think. The central concept: "You earn you daily bread" is going to take a hit. Henry Ford famously said he paid his workers $5 a day so that someone could afford to buy the cars he was making. A factory robot doesn't need food, transportation to get to and from work, or even a salary. A little tending and it's fine and can go 24/7 because it doesn't recognize holidays and doesn't have any reason to leave the factory.

IOW, whether we like it or not, we're going to have to rethink how our civilization functions because there is no stopping this. The idea of a job is going to take a serious hit over the next three decades. Either we deal with it or it will deal with us.

tongvue1995 | 2019年3月18日

hey, what if you can drive for 200milles and charge your car. I thought of this a very long time. Why charge for 8 hours and only drive for 200 miles? My idea is, what if you can plant a generator in any kind of electric car that can generate enough power to charge the battery while you are driving? That would be sick right!!! This may sound like a hybrid car, but it's slightly different because what's on the car is all Electric motor, no engine. What I'm saying is, you can use a different gear ratio on the wheels where it can rotate the generator that will generate power to a circuit board or a transform that will convert power to a specific power to directly charge the car's battery while driving. This going to required TWO battery. But you can put an auto-switching battery whichever one is fully charged to power the car. This may sound like a lot of work, but what if that is POSSIbLE?

NKYTA | 2019年3月18日

@dmm, well written.

"A factory robot doesn't need food, transportation to get to and from work, or even a salary."

Hmm, making a case for Skynet? ;-p

reed_lewis | 2019年3月18日

@tongvue1995 - What you are describing is perpetual motion. It takes a certain amount of power to propel the car forward. If you take some of that motion to drive an alternator (which requires work to do so), then the car will slow down, thereby needed more power to make the car more forward and which you are taking that motion and generating power. But you are losing power because of the losses in the physical world of motors, bearings, etc.

Remember an Alternator takes work to make power. It does not spin freely. You cannot get power for free.

sosmerc | 2019年3月18日

Would a Tesla Model W have been a more popular configuration? "W" being for Wagon. A more station wagon like design, but staying within the length and width of the Model 3 and still utilizing Model 3 components as much as possible. (just a more practical use of space including more headroom for rear seat passengers). Don't get me wrong, I like the Y. But I think I would like a W even better. And I am bringing up this subject in this general section of the forum because, hey, where else?

jordanrichard | 2019年3月18日

"SUVs" and "CUVs" are nothing more than tall wagons. Most S/CUVs, like the "Y" is based on a sedan platform, just with a taller roof.

Also when does a car's shape go from being a hatchback to being a wagon?

sosmerc | 2019年3月18日

"Also when does a car's shape go from being a hatchback to being a wagon?"
That's a good question.
For me, the space behind the rear bench (when left up to carry passengers) is the critical factor. That's what surprises me about the success of some of these small SUV and CUV's.....there is not much space back there for luggage. For 2 people it might be fine, but I don't see how families can get by with so little space. I guess that is why we see so many "Spock Boxes" in use today.
I consider the Ford Flex as a good example of what I would call a "station wagon". The Rivian SUV is similar to the Flex in many ways....and I think the Rivian SUV could meet the needs of larger families just like Chev Suburbans do.
And for some, the shape of the Flex and the new Rivian SUV are too boxy and ugly and certainly not "aero" in any way...but then again, none of the Big Ram, or Chev or Ford trucks are very "slippery" either :).......
I just think there might be a market for a Tesla "Wagon" based off of the Model Y and 3. About the size of a VW Dasher station wagon would work. I had one of those back in the day and it was a very practical car and yet it still was pretty "sporty".

finman100 | 2019年3月18日

yep, it seems this is the end. oh, wait, what. 2021? charge where again on a road trip? how many will be made or how many does the press release say? hmmmm. i wonder.

Let's see how this plays out, shall we. The more the merrier, but that isn't happening in any significant numbers right now or in the future. Sure , it CAN happen.

Madatgascar | 2019年3月18日

The bears managed to control the spin on the Model Y unveiling. Musk finally did what everyone said was the right thing - just put out a sensible SUV. No gratuitous new whiz bang tech, no falcon wing doors, no ridiculous schedule, no stretch goals. It looks easy to build on the Model 3 platform and everyone will want one. Sounds like a good business plan to me. As a stockholder, I was encouraged, and I thought the Y looked better than any other SUV out there. Bears worked hard on the sell the news angle but it looks like a buying opportunity to me.

tstolz | 2019年3月18日

The shorts are grasping at straws now that Tesla is selling in volume. EVs are really taking off now and Tesla is perfectly situated to lead the ‘charge’. Surveys show 20% of consumers intend to buy an EV for their next car (up from 15% last year) ... yet there is only supply for 2%. The reason ICE sales have tanked is because of the Osborne effect ... cars last a long time .. and people know ICE is obsolete now .. they increasingly are becoming aware of the risk of being stuck with an ICE-age car no one wants!!

Add to the mix how the battery market for storage is set to triple in 2019 and Tesla is looking even better! Also sounds like we will start to see solar roof tiles start to increase as well ... we’ll see on that one for sure, but a few months one way or another won’t matter. Tesla is positioned perfectly in a few key industries that are taking off big time!!

tstolz | 2019年3月18日

The shorts are grasping at straws now that Tesla is selling in volume. EVs are really taking off now and Tesla is perfectly situated to lead the ‘charge’. Surveys show 20% of consumers intend to buy an EV for their next car (up from 15% last year) ... yet there is only supply for 2%. The reason ICE sales have tanked is because of the Osborne effect ... cars last a long time .. and people know ICE is obsolete now .. they increasingly are becoming aware of the risk of being stuck with an ICE-age car no one wants!!

Add to the mix how the battery market for storage is set to triple in 2019 and Tesla is looking even better! Also sounds like we will start to see solar roof tiles start to increase as well ... we’ll see on that one for sure, but a few months one way or another won’t matter. Tesla is positioned perfectly in a few key industries that are taking off big time!!

Madatgascar | 2019年3月18日

Read NOLEK SUM’s take on the competition. Porsche’s EV could be very successful, yes; sold out a year in advance. This is the kind of competition Tesla wants. EVs will be the must-have vehicle you just can’t get without waiting in line. Once EV is further legitimized by Porsche and others, people won’t want to be caught in an ICE. A rising tide floats all boats. But with economy of scale, gigafactory, direct sales model, experience, and its SC network, Tesla will be in the best position to dominate.

Tesla2018 | 2019年3月18日

I think electric cars may more sense, but dont think that the average person wants them. By looking at posts on various car sites, it seems range and ability to plug in and time needed to charge is what is scaring most people away.Then there is the fud with battery fires.
Some Tesla owners say that Tesla creates jobs here, but so do oil companies.. Gas station owners, delivery truck drivers, oil field workers, chemical engineers etc.all have jobs because of oil.
Porsche will sell out of electric cars since the people buying them are probably rich and want the newest toy. Didnt they sell out of the 918 electric car that cost about 700k?
I am so glad that I dont have to make a stop on the way home for gas every week. And even better is not having a gasoline credit card bill each month.

carlk | 2019年3月18日

For what we know so far Taycan will cost from $90,000 base model (that will not be available the first year) to top model costing $130,000 plus likely the long and expensive Porsche option list. It will likely to have ~250 mile range and the top model is said to have under 3.5 second 0-60. That's more than twice the money for the Model 3 for about the same, if not less of a car. When the time comes for those people to place the order they need to be a die hard Porsche fan and/or the biggest sucker on the planet to do it.

carlk | 2019年3月18日

Tesla2018 918 is a limited edition collector's car. Only collectors buy them with the hope that it will increase in value. Totally different than a normal high volume production car.

NKYTA | 2019年3月18日

“I think electric cars may more sense, but dont think that the average person wants them. By looking at posts on various car sites, it seems range and ability to plug in and time needed to charge is what is scaring most people away.Then there is the fud with battery fires.”

And there is you, with the ill disguised FUD.

Nice try Oil boy.

jordanrichard | 2019年3月18日

NOLECK SUM, and just exactly how many Tacans are sold out? “1 year’s production” means nothing. Also just exactly how many Porsche dealers will have these chargers? One thing Porsche is not telling you and you are clearly just gobbling up what they are saying, is that not all Porsche dealers are going to be spending the money to install chargers or even offering to sell the Tacan. Even those dealers that do put in fast charging, Relatively few dealers are located just off the highways which is what you want on a road trip. Additionally, I don’t know about you, but when I want to get something to eat while charging, the snack machine in the service department isn’t exactly what I have in mind. Also, the Tacan will not get any OTA updates and that I got from someon I know that has put down a deposit to get one.

Madatgascar | 2019年3月19日

@jordanrichard has a good point. Porsche dealers are exclusively in large metropolitan areas, exactly where you don’t need charging infrastructure. They will be the majority of the 500 fast charging locations, meaning there won’t be enough on the highways. People will compare SC maps the way they do when they compare cellphone coverage, and look at the value proposition (which, as carlk points out, is not favorable for Porsche). Die hard Porsche fans may pay a premium but Tesla will extend its lead.

Kunzelman | 2019年3月19日

FUD (Bloomberg TV) had a TSLA "Expert" on who showed EV Scorecard TM3 sales "dropping off a cliff" in 1Q19. Neither the "expert" nor the talking head mentioned that nearly all TM3 Jan & Feb production was going to Europe & China and that Scorecard only tracks US sales. Ignorant? Or purposely deceptive? So, conversely, now that March's production is going primarily to US the EV Scorecard should "surprise" them with exploding TM3 production / consumption. Bloomberg's own Model 3 tracker shows weekly production pegged at 7,500+ (see light blue bar) and with a 13-week trailing average of nearly 6,000 cars a week now. Can Tesla deliver 25,000 TM3s in March? Why not? They did it in December. And, keep in mind, 25,000 cars is ANNUAL Prius Prime sales. Hummmm..... seems like Tesla is killing it! 80% domination of BEV market? In an industry that is experiencing Moore's Law growth / adoption? Buying more TSLA every day. Thanks to anyone selling their TSLA stock. I appreciate the opportunity to "buy low".

Mike83 | 2019年3月19日

Kunzelman +100 I also picked up shares.

sosmerc | 2019年3月19日

For a company that many say is "failing", they sure seem to be doing pretty well :).....
I just hope Elon doesn't ruin it all with a few more bad "tweets".

dmm1240 | 2019年3月19日

Nobody wants them?

US Plug-in EV Sales
2010-2011 17,425
2012 52,607
2013 97,507
2014 122,438
2015 116,099
2016 158,614
2017 199,818
2018 361,307

Global Plug-in EV Sales
2014 320,713
2015 550,297
2016 777,497
2017 1,277,117
2018 2,018,247
Source: Inside EVs

Total Global Auto Sales 2018 78.7 million
Total Global Auto Sales 2016 77.3 million

Plug-in EV Sales as % of Total Global Sales
2016 1%
2018 2.5%

That sure is a lot of nobodies, and growing fast.

Tesla-David | 2019年3月19日

@NKYTA. Thanks Ha Ha! Made me laugh

"And there is you, with the ill disguised FUD.
Nice try Oil boy."

Thanks @dmm1240, yes nobody wants them!

Roger1 | 2019年3月19日

Stand back and you will see that Tesla is a car company. A unique car company that only builds electric cars, but a car company none the less. People buy cars, not electric technology.

Tesla started in a small niche in the market and might well have failed except for Elon Musk recognizing the need for a fast charger network to make electric motoring possible. The Supercharger network made electric vehicles viable competition for gas cars. Big traditional car companies were busy fighting over market share and didn't react to Tesla. Too small to bother with, no doubt.

Model 3 changed the game, an electric vehicle cheap enough to penetrate into the mass market. Model 3 doesn't depend on electric car enthusiasm or buyers who want to fight climate change. Model 3 offers performance and savings on gas. Model Y packages the same thing into an SUV body that's so popular in the US market today.

The world is changing for electric cars. VW said recently that electric cars are cheaper to produce than gas/diesel and as a result the company will layoff 7 to 9 thousand workers. Major car companies are introducing electric vehicles. Networks of CCS charging stations are under construction to serve this rising population of non-Tesla electric vehicles.

Tesla has the advantage of mass production facilities for the model 3 and soon for the model Y. The Tesla brand is established but not necessarily among all segments of the market and in all locations. Rapid growth of Model 3 and soon Model Y will make Teslas more common on the streets and parking lots. More Superchargers will help too.

Big car companies will promote their battery electric vehicles on television and online as production ramps up. Tesla will benefit from the general hype about electric vehicles. Car companies will battle over the market as they do today with gas cars. Fortunately for Tesla, the big companies will be aiming marketing campaigns at their traditional adversaries rather than Tesla alone. Tesla will have to figure out how to become visible to potential customers who don't know about Tesla and its history of electric vehicle production.

Tesla's future depends on how well it can compete in a marketplace where all car companies offer competitive electric vehicles and enjoy the benefits of widespread, high power charging station networks. Technological exclusivity will be gone so they will have to compete by being the best car company.

finman100 | 2019年3月19日

it will be an awesome day when a non-Tesla EV uses the "other" fast charging network to cross the US faster than Tesla has done and continues to do.

Tesla ain't waiting for that. V3 Supercharging, more power for V2 in the meantime. More locations. in and along travel routes.

NOT at some dealership 'downtown'.

I am hopeful but really don't see the above event happening for awhile.

Moving target that is ever evolving...or ICE mfgs keep playing catch up.

RJMIII | 2019年3月20日

@blizzyb - Could you post that video to some more random threads? I don't think you've reached everyone you wanted to with your FUD.

finman100 | 2019年3月20日

...because a "bland" unveiling will cause poor sales. Let's see how that play out shall we.

Tesla now has MORE choices for class-leading long distance EVs. THAT is always a good thing. People love choices, right? For 3 years the only "choices" for Model 3 were sedan, sedan with all-wheel drive, and performance sedan. (plus battery pack size, sure). Many people LOVE the hatchback/liftback, whatever, and a higher seated driving position. Boom, Tesla is doing that.

I shake my head at all the negatives thrown at Elon and Tesla and they CONTINUE to succeed.

finman100 | 2019年3月20日

and for the record...all other long distance EV reveals have been "bland" to my eyes because NONE have the Tesla specs or a Supercharger network.

Some owners of these other EVs are going to be pretty disappointed they can't drive their brand new baby everywhere they used to with a gas car. just saying.

It's SOOOOOOO important to have that perception of no compromise or limits in travel when people buy cars. it's really simple. yet really important.

When i describe our 1st 3200 mile EV trip to people, they are amazed. Elon and company knew this was a big deal.

RJMIII | 2019年3月20日

This is how underwhelming the Model Y really is:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-vs-audi-e-tron-vs-jaguar-i-pace-...

sosmerc | 2019年3月20日

"when it comes to bang-for-your-buck value and sheer performance specs, it is difficult to argue against the Model Y."

In short, that about sums it up at this point in time. Maybe a few years from now it will be a different story.

Roger1 | 2019年3月20日

@finman100, I think the non-Tesla charger network business is changing. Today, there are lots of smaller companies in different places offering level 2 chargers and single unit 50 kW installations. It's clearly not adequate to support widespread EV adoption.The Tesla Supercharger network is the model for future charger networks. Anything less than a 'see you and raise you' approach is a waste of time. Tesla will be able to rip apart any lesser network from a marketing perspective.

I think Electrify America, the company I see as the principal competitor, will have two key objectives. First, provide fast charger facilities for CCS vehicles to neutralize the Tesla Supercharger network as a competitive advantage. This means building a national presence and installing multiple unit,175 kW chargers in the same kinds of places as Superchargers. Charger stations buried in auto dealer lots won't be part of the plan.

Second, build a profitable business selling electricity and other services to electric vehicle owners. As charging facilities become common place, speed, easy access and convenient washroom and food facilities will differentiate providers. I believe that multiple companies will be in the electric vehicle charging business. Oil companies are offering both battery charging and hydrogen refueling in Europe.

Tesla users know about the importance of the Supercharger network to make electric cars capable of long distance trips. People who don't know about electric cars have no idea. My wife and I travelled from Toronto, Canada to Key West, Florida and return this February/March for a total trip distance of 4,442 miles (7,151 km). My neighbor wonder how we would find places to charge the car. No problem, the car finds the charger for you. We drove as far each day in the Tesla as we did with our gas vehicle. Charging added some time to the trip but not much because we would have stopped anyway for bio breaks and food. The fact you can make a trip like this in an electric vehicle is news to many people. Tesla will have to promote their Supercharger network and the reality of long distance electric vehicle travel. Tesla has to make 'Supercharger' into the 'Kleenex' of long distance EV travel.

You also commented on the "bland" model Y introduction. There is only so much you can do with an SUV derivative of a sedan. With a strong family resemblance and 70% common parts, how long can you talk about model Y? I think the important part of the presentation was the history lesson starting with serial 001 and building half a million vehicles just 11 years later. Musk's comments about the simplicity of building a prototype versus putting it into mass production are also relevant. I think he was telling the investment community that Tesla is a real car company with the competence and capability to build and deliver mass quantities of vehicles.

sosmerc | 2019年3月20日

"when it comes to bang-for-your-buck value and sheer performance specs, it is difficult to argue against the Model Y."

In short, that about sums it up at this point in time. Maybe a few years from now it will be a different story.

lar_lef | 2019年3月20日

With respect to comments on Ai and robots replacing workers, the science fiction writer who wrote the basis for "Bladerunner" wrote another story about the future in which a relatively small number of human workers was needed for production and the rest of the people were eliminated under the program "Kill the Others." Incidentally, A one party (only) system ruled a combination US, Canada, Mexico state.

greg | 2019年3月21日

@lar_lef

That would be Philip K Dick then. The Bladerunner film story was based on "Do Androids dream of electric sheep?".

And much like a lot of Dick's stories, the actual films story/plot was a shit load better than the original book was.

Another Dick story "The Man in the High Castle" was pretty good as alternate realities go. And although it and the equally as good "The Handmaids Tale" were dismissed as fantasy. High Castles central premise of a divided America sliced into two occupied totalitarian states, and Handmaids Tale's fascist state have both become more and more plausible since 43 and 45.

Brian Aldiss wrote an equally good and poignant Sci-fi longish short story titled "Who can replace a man?" which looked at a future world with robots and AI from a different perspective, of ever increased specialisation.

Which actually had me rooting for the robots when I read it!

Al1 | 2019年3月21日

The speed of innovation at Tesla is simply mind boggling. Just look back at the last 5 years and do the comparison to other car makers.

To me that matters as an investment criteria. It's also hard to argue the timing to buy is pretty good. So whoever is making sure Tesla shares are still affordable thank you! Thank you SEC and thank you those who paid SEC.