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TSLA at 420

TSLA at 420

Anyone remember the old days? Seems like it was only a few months ago. Oh wait it was a few months ago.

Nothing has changed fundamentally with Tesla since 420 all the way up to 960.

DON'T PANIC

WW_spb | 2020年2月29日

Surreal

coselectric | 2020年2月29日

S&P just experienced a solid 10% correction, arguably overdue. TSLA has been moving down with the rest of the market, nothing surprising. I'm thinking next week will be a mixed bag with bargain hunters battling the coronavirus worriers. Still, I think this year overall will be a whole lotta sideways for the broader market with a lot of election and coronavirus volatility. But TSLA could defy the market some more if/when the Model Y is received well.

Of course coronavirus could kill us all and none of this will matter, can't rule that out either.

Lonestar10_1999 | 2020年2月29日

I think of it this way. If you contract the coronavirus, then your decision to mortgage your house to buy TSLA at it’s $960 peak won’t be the worst problem you have. You need to stay positive.

ALDONY | 2020年2月29日

I am actually hopeful that it will go to 600, even lower next week. Have about 40k ready to invest in TSLA.

I have 210 shares at $300 average which I have never touched.

andy.connor.e | 2020年2月29日

What happened to the other thread?

Magic 8 Ball | 2020年2月29日

I nuked it.

andy.connor.e | 2020年2月29日

good time it reached over 1000 posts

yudansha™ | 2020年2月29日

Why did you nuke it?

stingray.don | 2020年2月29日

We could have used conventional weapons, but that would have taken years and cost millions of lives.

coselectric | 2020年2月29日

+stingray.don LOL

David N | 2020年2月29日

Larry Cudlow on an interview today said perhaps it’s a good time to “buy” with this dip.

andy.connor.e | 2020年3月1日

we'll see what monday looks like. Im not sure about anything until virus fears subside.

coselectric | 2020年3月1日

There were multiple pandemics in the 20th century that killed millions, even tens of millions. Once the panic subsides, life will go on and the stock market will recover. I hope this one isn't bad, but either way this is at least the beginning of a buying opportunity in the stock market.

Magic 8 Ball | 2020年3月1日

SEC should investigate corona virus.

coselectric | 2020年3月1日

I suspect -someone- may end up ordering the DoJ to investigate coronavirus, especially if -someone- loses an election this November.

PBEndo | 2020年3月1日

@coselectric
Previous pandemics occurred in a much less connected world. It took much longer for a virus to spread around the world before jet travel was an everyday occurrence. Our economies weren't nearly as interconnected either. Supply chain disruptions (can't make products) combined with consumer fear (better not spend until this passes) and social distancing (safer not to travel, eat out, shop where you could catch the virus) could make the economic ffects of this outbreak worse, or at least more rapid, than historical events. On the bright side, we have better health care in place and an improved ability to develop treatments or a vaccine, so the recovery, both from illness and economic recession should be more rapid as well.

Magic 8 Ball | 2020年3月1日

What has me scratching my head is why isn't BABA getting hit much harder?
Something not adding up.

andy.connor.e | 2020年3月1日

Seasonal flu is a pandemic.

andy.connor.e | 2020年3月1日

Just like ICE vehicle fires, its not in your face everyday in the media. So no one cares.

HighlandPony | 2020年3月1日

With 27 million uninsured Americans and millions more with junk policies I’m not really too sure about the improved health care statement. People will be very reluctant to seek medical attention and it will sweep through the population unchecked. The overcrowded conditions in our grossly underfunded public school system will contribute heavily to the high rate of transmission. Combine that with the current administrations gross incompetence, denialism and massive cuts to funding for the CDC, NIH and FEMA, and the dissolution of the pandemic response team. Oh, I almost left out the lack of mandatory paid sick leave for all workers in this country as compared to nearly all other developed nations. But Pence is on the job so I’m sure we’ll all be fine. It’s all just an elaborate hoax by the libtards to crash the market and make the tangerine troglodyte loose the election. LOL

Lonestar10_1999 | 2020年3月1日

@HighlandPony- when someone is confirmed with coronavirus and they are in mandatory quarantine and tended to by a team of hazmat clad medical professionals, whether or not you have proper insurance could be moot.

yudansha™ | 2020年3月1日

Alibaba is totally undervalued; have been buying more of it lately.

HighlandPony | 2020年3月1日

@Lonestar10_1999 >"when someone is confirmed with coronavirus"

Yes, my point exactly! By the time people seek medical attention, due to lack of money, insurance, sick leave, whatever, they are highly contagious, deep in the throws of the illness and they have already spread the virus throughout the community before the infection has been confirmed and appropriate precautions have been taken. There have already been a number of community based infections cases and even the first fatality. The disease has already made it through the first line of defense. The basic premise of my argument is that there could be higher than expected disease transmission rates for a first world country due to lackluster educational and social policies prevalent in the US at this time. I hope that I'm wrong. But I will say that a coworker just returned from a two week family vacation in Italy, in the region with confirmed COVID 19 cases. He didn't make mention of any kind of screening process when entering back into the US. I'll ask him about it tomorrow. He's been wearing a mask at work even though he's asymptomatic. Full disclosure, I work for a medical diagnostics company and I'll be buying more TSLA stock soon. Unfortunately, I'm currently upside down in the stock and I'm hoping to reduce my cost basis.

coleAK | 2020年3月1日

@highlandPony. With most seasonal respiratory viruses: Corona, flu, parapnumo, parainfluenza, Adeno, RSV,... people are contagious well before they start showing symptoms or even know they are infected. so expensive healthcare really isn’t that much of an issue. And here in the US we have some of the highest medical non-compliance rates in the first world. we’ve known for years any resp virus can greatly stop being spread by hand hygiene and infected wearing a mask. Yet how many people do you see with a “cold” wiping their nose with their hand/arm/sleeve, coughing or sneezing in their hands or open out in the air, and how few do you see with those symptoms wearing a mask?

rxlawdude | 2020年3月1日

Influenza is contagious only for a short period before symptoms - 24 hours, tops. The novel Coronavirus appears to have a much longer period of contagiousness while asymptomatic

HighlandPony | 2020年3月1日

Are patient outcomes any worse in the US due to the high rate of uninsured individuals and astronomical medical costs? What is the average delay in seeking medical treatment in the US as compared to other countries that have socialized medicine and gov't mandated sick leave, basically every other first world country?

rxlawdude | 2020年3月1日

@Highland, WAY too soon to answer that.

coleAK | 2020年3月1日

@highland... one of the biggest problems with the American healthcare system is we are treating Americans. If lack of accessible, affordable healthcare is the problem why don’t our American Indian population have the best health outcomes in the US? They have free, quality, accessible healthcare through IHS but (per IHS): “ The American Indian and Alaska Native people have long experienced lower health status when compared with other Americans. Lower life expectancy and the disproportionate disease burden exist despite government provided free to the individual access to quality healthcare. These are broad quality of life issues rooted in cultural differences and social determinants of health and not the structures healthcare system.

Diseases of the heart, malignant neoplasm, unintentional injuries, and diabetes are leading causes of American Indian and Alaska Native deaths (2009-2011).

American Indians and Alaska Natives born today have a life expectancy that is 5.5 years less than the U.S. all races population (73.0 years to 78.5 years, respectively).

American Indians and Alaska Natives continue to die at higher rates than other Americans in many categories, including chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus, unintentional injuries, assault/homicide, intentional self-harm/suicide, and chronic lower respiratory diseases”

I would make the same argument for active duty military, and retired with Tricare and VA benefits. That group has affordable, accessible, quality healthcare with no evidence of improved outcomes to the general population. So what I’m saying is there is no evidence argument that free, quality healthcare fixes health issues in the USA, It much more complex...

Orthopod | 2020年3月1日

When contracting coronavirus,
People are spreading the virus 7 days before the first symptoms, the incubation period is longer than the flu.
After the infection and the viral pneumonia, they emit virus for as long as 3 months after the peak of the infection resolved.

I have been speaking with an infectious disease specialist at work and this virus will contaminate approximately 70% if the World population.

With a death rate of 1-3%, there will be 100M COVID-19 death-related to this pandemic.

82bert | 2020年3月1日

Way too early to guarantee any of that, bumblebeev. It’s certainly not insignificant, but there is more recent data showing that mortality rate likely is closer to 0.8% given the numbers of uncounted people with mild disease. I agree the COVID-19 will likely spread much further. However, the higher 2+% mortality rate often sited has been seen primarily in China. I am not an expert on China’s healthcare system, so I have no idea if that has something to do with it. I will say that when people talk about healthcare, healthcare rankings, etc, it’s far more complex than simply “the us healthcare system is worse than x healthcare system”. Especially when we’re talking about the effects of a pandemic.

I will say that for the many things the us healthcare system lacks, true access to emergency care is not one of them. Again, I have no direct knowledge of China’s access to emergency care, but I’m willing to bet the US has much greater access.

82bert | 2020年3月1日

Possibly a little insight into the Chinese healthcare system:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/28/wuhan-virus-epidemic-china-chinese-...

Orthopod | 2020年3月2日

The microbiologist has a friend who was in a conference in China. She Spoke to her. She told her the hospitals were so overwhelmed that they sent patients to hotels in front of hospital and nurses were rounding them in the morning and in the evening. Her uncle was left in oxygen during the evening he deteriorated and found dead in the morning. So they brought back at home her dad which was « hospitalized » in the same hotel too in order to offer oxygen support at home. They went to buy bricanyl, oxygen tanks android tubing to offer oxygen support at home and ventilation mask, he survived. however there are many patients who went sent home this way without any place to offer them care in wuhan and probably died without being counted in the death rate so it is probably underestimated.

I agree it is not in the 50% but probably more around 2 or 3% than what was reported in China

Sarah R | 2020年3月2日

@ColeAK I won't dispute what you say about health outcomes in First Nations. I've seen that for myself. I will question the statements about active duty military and Tricare. I would assert that in general outcomes there are at least on par with the for-profit health care system that the public uses but in aggregate no worse. This I've also seen for myself. But Tricare provides essentially equal care are a fraction of the cost ... because the goal is to provide care, not to make a profit.

I once heard this description, and it rang true to me:
"Medicare is in essence, the Canadian system. Tricare is essentially the U.K. system."

derotam | 2020年3月2日

...."Tricare"...

but but but "Vitamin M' cures everything! Anyone who doesn't get that wasn't in the military, haha.

82bert | 2020年3月2日

@bumblebeev. Your anecdote sort of proves what I’m saying. The mortality rates out of China according to the papers I’ve read are 2-3% range and that’s in a setting of a healthcare system that’s lacking in a a variety of ways. I don’t see that being the same mortality rates in the US and similar countries and many of the researchers I’ve been reading feel the same.

Magic 8 Ball | 2020年3月2日

Already up 4.20% Pre Market. Money has to go somewhere. Under the mattress or invest.

WW_spb | 2020年3月2日

CyberTruck can't come soon enough

coselectric | 2020年3月2日

I don't know the stats, but having been to China many times (though never Wuhan) I can say that the housing density in big cities is much higher than it is in most parts of the U.S., even our big cities. And nothing at all like American suburbia. I would have to think this influences transmission rate significantly.

WW_spb | 2020年3月2日
Geico | 2020年3月2日

Tesla will settle in the $400-$600 per share I believe and once the china numbers are out for Q1 Tesla will tank back to $300 or so. Model Y production is slowly ramping up with limited production until middle of the year, Q2-Q3.

Tesla is a long term buy, very risky. At any price, you are paying in hopes the company grows into the valuation in 5-10 years. I would hold out until Q1 results.

Tesla can not meet current valuation unless it reaches 4-5 million vehicles a year with good management for successful financial results. Robotaxi service is pie in the sky BS that will never become reality in the near future. Maybe in 10-20 years there will be geofencing available in select cities and locations. Go ask the Waymo CEO what he thinks.

Magic 8 Ball | 2020年3月2日

"...unless it reaches 4-5 million vehicles a year"

Tesla is in the data and energy business besides selling rolling hardware.

Lightglass | 2020年3月2日

The Model Y transporters should be rolling by me on I-40. I will report when I see them. FUDsters working to suppress the price......Next big thing is the Semi mid-year release. Battery Day could be big as well!

Geico | 2020年3月2日

Model 3 supply/demand is all the way down to delivery in 2-4 weeks. Indicates weak demand in NA. Max output from the Fremont factory is indicated to be 400,000. Sales of Model S/X were down 40% last year.

With weak demand in NA accompanied by China's weakness in growth with the Virus, Tesla will not fare well come Q1 results.

I think long term they will get out the rut, but a correction is coming once financials take it's toll again. Tesla can spend all it wants, without growth it isn't looking good. Weak demand on S/X even though lowering prices on those models indicate to me bad signs ahead in the short term.

The only few things that will save Tesla long term is if they can make the SC network significantly cheaper than 3rd party offerings and their cars become much cheaper with equal performance. If you believe those will be met, enjoy the bumpy ride but stay in for the long term. Buy the stock like you are buying to own the company.

Magic 8 Ball | 2020年3月2日

Demand exceeds supply.

WW_spb | 2020年3月2日

Buck troll is working hard today

Geico | 2020年3月2日

Stock has done well for folks so far, so why take my advice? Apparently I don't know anything (relative to TSLA) and my advice means nothing.

Geico | 2020年3月2日

Ultimately, the stock price has yet to date in TSLA's existence reacted appropriately to the financial performance of the company. If you value TSLA from a pure financal point of view, they are worth $41/share. I always gave them 2-3x book value for the growth opportunities they have, but the current stock price is like pointing at a number on a board and everyone nodding and saying "yup, that should be the value"

Magic 8 Ball | 2020年3月2日

Sure am glad I dumped HAL and SLB a few years back.

Geico | 2020年3月2日

Good decision. Take that and go buy DUK or XOM where they are diversified enough to continually grow for the long term. Not hard to pick the right stocks. Go buy Coke, Microsoft, anyone else. Those aren't the best choices. Chose industries you know and buy the stock like you are buying to own the company. Understand the business you're getting in.

Magic 8 Ball | 2020年3月2日

" Understand the business you're getting in."

Why I loaded up on Tesla and why TSLA, AMZN, and CMCSA are the only ones I am adding to.

Sure to many it seems like a gamble but that is the way it was with AAPL to for a while.

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