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Warranty speculation & estimated long term costs of part replacement?

Warranty speculation & estimated long term costs of part replacement?

What do you think the warranty with cover and for how long? Also what do you expect items with cost off warranty as most of us plan on keeping the car long term?

Just some questions floating around in my head.

TeslaTap.com | 2016年4月20日

Warranty will likely be better than the competition and similar to the Model S warranty of 50K miles/4 years, everything but the tires and 8 years on the battery and motors. The 8 year portion may be miles limited, but currently unlimited miles on the S and X.

Costs out of warranty for specific parts/labor will be similar to other luxury makes (somewhat expensive), but there are a lot fewer parts on the EV that should fail. Remember ICE cars have all those parts (Engine, exhaust system, transmission, etc.) that are under high stress and heat. These will fail over time, but EVs don't have any of these parts.

jfriends4438 | 2016年4月20日

Very true TeslaTap but the parts that it does have could cost 5x or 10x more to replace. I am just wonder if it will be better or worse than an ICE. I know an ICE will visit a shop more in a 20 year span but expenses could possibly be less over that time if say a battery replacement is required after 10 years and its upward of 15 grand.

Just trying to look at the big picture.

TeslaTap.com | 2016年4月20日

Hard to say. Batteries on earlier EVs and Hybrids seem to be lasting far longer than even the manufacturer expected,. Also batteries tend not to die but loose capacity over time. A rough guideline is maybe 2-3% after the first year and perhaps 1% year thereafter. On my Model S, I've lost a little over 3% in three years. So the choice to replace a battery is more a case of what capacity do you need in 10-15 years.

EV motors are designed to last the life of the car. Tesla has had an issue with early motors where the bearings started to cause noise over time. They exchanged the motors as it was far faster than waiting for the motor to be pulled apart and having the berings changed out with the new design. All this was under warranty and the problem appears to be fixed for all new Tesla vehicles.

After many years, I suppose it is possible to have some catastrophic failure of the entire battery or motor that would require an expensive replacement. I think it is less likely than having an engine or automatic transmission replacement in an ICE car. It is just one of the risks we often take once a product goes out of warranty.

PaceyWhitter | 2016年4月20日

We don't know what a replacement battery will cost. No S is more than 8 years old. That being said, you 15g number is probably not far off. Obviously if an ICE has a complete engine failure after warranty that is also an expensive repair, it is just not very common. Hopefully, the M3 battery will be similar.

jordanrichard | 2016年4月20日

Just as it is a bit pre-mature to set up insurance for your M≡, so is trying to guess the cost of parts 2 years out. Tesla does have a history of going against another industry standard and that is to lower the price of parts. The CMaempo (or however you spell it) adapter was originally was $1,000. Now it is $450. The cost of a replacement FOB was drastically reduced.

As for the battery cost. Elon has stated that the goal of the kWh cost was to be $100. So a 60 kwh pack would in theory cost $6,000. However, that is not something you will need to worry about for at least 8 years from when you get your car......

finman100 | 2016年4月20日

CHAdeMO?

wikipedia dot org/wiki/CHAdeMO

How about some tea? Must read the wiki to learn why this is funny.

adias.angel | 2016年4月20日

One thing to also remember for battery replacement cost is that the new batteries will contain no rare earth metals (eg lithium) but will contain nickle instead. Much lower cost to produce.

TeslaTap.com | 2016年4月20日

@adias.angel - not sure what you mean. I've never heard of lithium being replaced with nickel. Lithium is quite abundant and isn't all that rare (although it is called a rare earth metal). There are the older Nickel-metal Hydride batteries that much slower to charge and weight quite a bit more for the same power. Not sure why anyone would want to replace Lithium-ion batteries with NMH and get reduced range. NMH batteries are a bit cheaper, but lithium-ion keeps coming down in price. Perhaps in a few years Lithium-Ion will be cheaper than NMH.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月20日

adias.angel: I may have misread your post earlier... I presumed you meant that like Lithium, another element that was NOT a rare-Earth metal could be used. Because, Lithium is NOT rare at all -- it exists anywhere on Earth were anything is alive. Further, the batteries that Tesla Motors uses already have Nickel as part of their formulation. Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide, if I remember correctly. Of course, it may change slightly for Model ☰.

Haggy | 2016年4月21日

Keep in mind that reliability is constantly improving. First year repairs for cars last year were 1/4 of what they were the first year. If you read the 10K, it shows how money is allocated for warranty repair out of revenue for sales. Tesla's warranty expenses have been going down in a relative sense. (i.e. they have gone up, but nowhere near in proportion to increased sales, so the warranty expense per vehicle is way down.)

Things can go wrong with older cars, but you need to factor in which items are consumables, which are expected to wear out in time, and which ones will last unless defective. There aren't many that are subject to regular wear, aside from tires and wiper blades. There are some that degrade over time, such as batteries, but no indication that you'll need to replace it in a decade or that you would want to. Assuming that battery degradation turns out to be far worse than anybody anticipates, and instead of 225, you get a range of 195, somebody who drives 40 miles a day and plugs in at night won't see a difference. If that person takes one long trip a year for 400 miles in each way, and needs an extra stop at a supercharger because of it, it might add two hours a year of inconvenience. Most people won't pay $5000 to save two hours a year for years 10-15. If your time is worth $500/hour, chances are you won't be worrying about batteries for a 10 year old car.

But you also won't have to worry about valves and injectors and mufflers, belts, and a host of other things that go wrong with an ICE over time. Aside from the battery and drive train, you might be left with things that are the same on any car, such as window regulators, sound system, floor mats or anything else. You aren't going to find yourself with lots of light bulbs to change.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月21日

Haggy: +42! Very well stated. The Ultimate Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything about "Why Should No One Bother to Worry about the Longevity of an Electric Car?" I predict that out of warranty, more people will spend money detailing their Tesla Motors product than they will ever spend replacing a battery pack.

archvillain | 2016年4月21日

While battery is going to be a major cost over the extra-long term, I think it's best to simply think of that in terms of your weekly gas savings being not quite as large as your wallet thinks they are :)

Haggy | 2016年4月23日

Even in the extra long term, it's not clear that it will be an issue. A 15 year old BMW 3 series is worth about $2800. Replacing a $10K battery, if it were an EV, would make it cost five times what it's worth. If an EV is 15 years old, has substantially degraded range, and can go only 120 miles on a charge, it will still be fine for local use for most people. They might be able to go on road trips, stopping once every hundred miles. A 300 mile trip might need three 40 minute stops, one of which might be for lunch. A person who drives a 15 year old car and takes a rare 300 mile trip would likely prefer to spend that time charging instead of spending five times as much for the car.

Another thing to consider is that if Tesla is selling 500,000 cars a year by then, then demand for battery swap stations might be 7000 times greater than it is right now. In that case, Tesla might be opening them strategically. A person with a 15 year old car might be willing to get a battery swap before a trip for $60, travel with the ease of a new battery, and swap back at the end of the trip. It would still be far cheaper than gasoline.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月25日

And... even more great points by Haggy!

jordanrichard | 2016年4月26日

In the 2 years, that I have had my car, I have saved $4,650 in gas. So just using that, that would mean in say 15 years, I will have saved $34,875 in gas. That is more than what a new battery pack will cost in 15 years. Elon goal is to get to $100 kwh. So my 85 kwh pack would theoretically cost $8,500 to replace which means I would still be ahead by a very large margin.

MarlonBrown | 2016年4月26日

In the long-term the expiration of the tax credit should make major impact in sales. Once more people realize how Tesla cars can provide savings in operational costs. I have been driving a mediocre leaf for one week now instead of the BMW 3. I had to spend $50 every 3 days or so filling up the tank of the beamer. Plus for a high mileage driver like the 40k warranty in the beamer is gone in 2 years. Yes, i have seen engines, transmission etc giving major repair costs few months after bmw warranty is gone. Once people realize how reliable and cost effective the Tesla cars are, only reason to get a Benz or BMW is if there is a long wait or one is really fooled by the name badge.

MarlonBrown | 2016年4月26日

I meant should not make.

topher | 2016年4月28日

"In the long-term the expiration of the tax credit should [not] make major impact in sales."

And, in fact, it hasn't. Most of the 400,000 reservations for Model ≡ must suspect that they might not get a full tax credit. Apparently people have just been waiting for a reasonably priced compelling electric vehicle. Tax credits are mostly irrelevant. Who knew? ... I mean *besides* Elon Musk.

Thank you kindly.