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Ten Charts That Will Make You Rethink Tesla's Model 3

Ten Charts That Will Make You Rethink Tesla's Model 3

Good Bloomberg article on Model 3 - more than the normal rehash and mostly positive. I really liked the section on charging: "...charging locations already outnumber gas stations by about 400 to 1".

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-21/tesla-changed-cars-for...

PhillyGal | 2016年4月22日

Nice! I think the Infinity's 5.3 seconds to 60 might nag at Tesla. I hope it does because if they can match that with the base model 3, class domination will be even easier. (M3 will already decimate that class in my opinion.)

topher | 2016年4月22日

There is something drastically wrong with the last chart. It has cumulative sales by 2040 of 500k cars. Tesla predicts YEARLY sales in that range by 2020. They aren't just under estimating as they call one year sales 35% of all car sales. What are they trying to say?

Thank you kindly.

Mike83 | 2016年4月22日

Good report. Competition? Tesla has over 97% owners Satisfaction. Trust in GM or VW? Not me. Tesla employment in America is exploding. An honest American company is refreshing.

PaceyWhitter | 2016年4月22日

The article states that the chart was created previously using the authors projections. It also states that those projections might be seen as conservative now.

mbb | 2016年4月22日

@PhillyGal my Infiniti G35 and S70 has around the same nominal 0-60. But S70 feels a lot faster and its response a lot quicker. There's no chart that capture the joy of Tesla's silent acceleration

georgehawley.fl.us | 2016年4月22日

Some of the charts don't make sense to me. If Elon's target is 500,000 in 2020, how is building 56,000 cars per quarter going to hit that?

The time it takes for the M≡ to overtake the BMW 3 series and others is because the sales of the other cars will be reduced as they will be displaced by the Tesla entry, just as 700 series sales declined last year as Model S sales rose.

But it's all over, folks, Bob Lutz, now employed by CNBC, today said the M≡ will be late and all the major competitors will be underpricing their electric cars to get mileage credits.

georgehawley.fl.us | 2016年4月22日

The time it takes will be less than shown because...

Haggy | 2016年4月22日

I had an M45, before it got totaled by my son's girlfriend. I replaced it with a Model S, which has better acceleration. Any Model S will. The Infiniti was responsive. The Tesla is more responsive. The Tesla also cost me twice as much. The Infiniti gave me more aggravation though, and it was to the point that I'd never buy one again. Even though on paper, the MS was in for service more, Infiniti's problem was the inability or unwillingness to fix some things, or even acknowledge that they were problems.

It would have been much harder for her to total a Model 3, had it existed.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月22日

The chart labeled 'Tesla's History of Delays' makes the same error that every other journalist does, by not mentioning the primary reason for the delayed launch of Model X -- the extreme success of the Model S. Everyone simply harps on how they feel the Falcon Wing Doors were not needed and how they believe the car was too complicated in design. They always overlook how Tesla Motors built 22,000 of the Model S alone in 2013, when they expected to maybe build 15,000 cars, including the Model X that year, if they were lucky. They also overlook how Tesla thought that the Model S 40 would be their big seller, when it was actually the Model S 85. So with a greater quantity of orders overall, and far more people getting the high capacity battery pack, there were not enough available to handle Model X Production that year. The original Model X delays were while Tesla negotiated with Panasonic for a higher quantity of battery cells. It was the later delays during 2015 that were for technical issues.

As for the Chevrolet BOLT being 'practical'... Sure it is, for people who think of vehicles as only a means of transport from Point 'A' to Point 'B'. Those who only drive because they are afraid to allow a shuttle, cab, or bus driver do it for them. People who have nowhere to go, and plenty of time to get there. It isn't so practical for anyone that actually enjoys driving and wants to go on regular road trips. Specifically because General Motors has no intention of creating or investing in any long range fast charging network.

As for the actions of 'luxury brands'... They are all very, very far behind. Some are even willing to admit as much. Most are content to 'watch and wait'. Others have decided not compete at all. Many are certain that this interest in electric cars is all just a passing fad and that their real customers will come back to them in time.

There is no Federal 'subsidy' for the Model ☰. The US Government will not give them one thin dime for the cars, unless they are buying some. The IRS has a Federal Tax Credit that is an incentive for only people with a verifiable tax burden will qualify for. That amount will phase out over six month periods -- not single quarters -- after the 200,000 unit mark has been passed. Some States offer Rebates to those who purchase zero emissions vehicles. None of these are subsidies to Tesla Motors.

The chart labeled 'U.S. Model 3 Sales Are Crucial for Tesla's Targets' is also incorrect. Tesla Motors will reach 200,000 units per year with Model ☰ in the US alone before they reach 500,000 units worldwide. It doesn't make sense to gradually scale up here at home so that they only reach 144,000 annually in 2020. The US is BMW's biggest market for the 3-Series, so it must be defeated here first. (Also, that chart shows BMW 3-Series sales from 2014 -- not 2015 -- which also include the 4-Series.) Pretty much all the numbers shown per year, and per quarter, in that chart are completely wrong for Model ☰.

It continues to astound me that so many 'journalists' are continually surprised that Tesla Motors refuses to do anything that is underwhelming. It seems that they somehow want Tesla to do something boring, ordinary, and plain. The same is true of various financial pundits. All looking at the gloomy, dark, frightful possibilities of failure as the only reasonably objective forecast.

PhillyGal | 2016年4月22日

@mbb - Good point, but I'm still hoping the Tesla "hubris" makes them strive to match or beat it

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月22日

PhillyGal: +1! Indeed. Sub-5s... Sub-4s... Sub-3s... Coming right up!

mbb | 2016年4月22日

PhillyGal: Yeah, speed is addictive. That's why I reserved a model 3 :)

Hi_Tech | 2016年4月22日

@Red Sage: I hope you are right, but I'm thinking closer to mid-5s, mid-4s, mid-3s. Would be glad to be proven wrong in this case. :-)

dsvick | 2016年4月22日

@Red Sage +1 There is no Federal 'subsidy' for the Model ☰
You see that all time, counting the tax incentive like it's coming right off of the price of the car. That's why I made that post a week or so ago about it. Most people wont see any $ from it for 6 moths to a year after they buy the car, but I'll bet you there will be a lot of people in the store signing the paperwork and then asking why the $7,500 wasn't deducted.

Also, I agree with what you said about the delays and their causes. In the end though, they were still a delay beyond what was originally expected. People will look that as established history regardless of the reason and, to some extent, they have every right to. My hope is that they figured out when they thought they could start producing the Model ☰ then added several months to allow for the unexpected. Now we can all hope that the unexpected never happens and they actually start producing earlier than expected!!

xautoworld | 2016年4月22日

@Red Sage Nice analysis of the article... most people will never know these points when they've read the article... media is like that around the world...

jamilworm | 2016年4月23日

About that last chart, I'm almost certain that 500k is supposed to be 500 million. If you follow the link to the authors previous predictions you'll see the identical graph with 500 million as the upper limit. What surprises me about that chart is the prediction that in 2040 electric vehicles will only account for 35% of total sales. That is a long time in the future, and I have a hard time believing electric vehicles won't consume most of the market by that point.

I wonder if they sort of capped at that amount because traditionally electric cars have only been sedans and compacts, whereas there are many other vehicle markets, such as vans, pickup trucks, SUVs, motorcycles, commercial trucks and more that I am forgetting. But c'mon, 24 years is a long time. I am sure by then there will be affordable electric versions of all those things. Commercial trucks will probably be the last segment to shift to electric.

Tstolz | 2016年4月23日

Weirdly ... commercial trucks are happening now. There are many regular, shortish routes now lend very well to electric transport. Fuel savings become too hard to pass up. Throw in battery swap ... because the route is routine ... and you have a viable model for a segment of that industry.

Chunky Jr. | 2016年4月23日

Right now there is a lot of FUD around EVs which turns some people off. But as more and more people get Model 3, that FUD will slowly fade away. Even people who don't have a Model 3 will be influenced by friends, family, and neighbors that do.

artC | 2016年4月23日

@Red Sage: You aught to send your analysis of the inaccurate items to Bloomberg.

Bubba2000 | 2016年4月23日

If Tesla keeps M3 simple, optimized for mass production, use commodity metals and electronics, they can complete and validate design quickly. Existing factory can be tooled to start production by the end of 2017. Key is to keep design simple. Then they can scale with another dedicated manufacturing line.

Tesla unique moats growing bigger and wider each year. The supercharger network will 2x and destination chargers 4x. The network effect will drive demand exponentially. Tesla is building a GF to provide batteries. OK, anybody can strap a electric motor and batteries to a car like with Bolt. Where do I fast charge the jalopy? Bsttery capacity not enough.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年4月25日

The Bloomberg website doesn't seem to offer an easy way to communicate with them directly.

Chunky Jr. | 2016年4月25日

@Red : "The Bloomberg website doesn't seem to offer an easy way to communicate with them directly"

If you have ever read the comments on their articles, I don't blame them. :-)

lar_lef | 2016年4月25日

Bubba
Right. The competition doesn't have all the Tesla products which, in some cases used together, make an unbeatable combination.

lolachampcar | 2016年4月26日

170 miles in 30 minutes using SC for an S
Change that to a M3 and the time goes down. M3 does not require the same number of W-Hrs to go those 170 miles :)

Haggy | 2016年4月26日

If you have any reasonable way of knowing when you will take delivery of your car, you'd be able to lower your payroll deductions or estimated tax payments so that you'd have that $7500 saved before you bought the car. If you end up wrong, you may or may not owe interest or penalties. In my case, it meant that the amount I owed when I filed my taxes was $7500 less.

topher | 2016年4月27日

@lolachamp
On the other hand, the battery pack on the 3 is smaller, meaning that the quick part of the charging is less kWh. We'll have to see how that all works out.

@Haggy
The incentive is a tax _credit_ that means it reduces your tax _liability_, NOT your payments. No amount of adjusting your W-4 will change you tax liability (other than owing penalties of course, but no point in doing that).

Thank you kindly.

Haggy | 2016年4月27日

You are missing the point. If I'm expecting a tax credit of 7500, and I make my quarterly payments each $1875 lower, then I will have $7500 more money and not owe it at tax time. If there are six months left to the year and I know I'm going to have the car delivered that year, I can change my W4 and have $576 less taken out of each paycheck. By the end of the year, almost $7500 less would have been deducted and I can use all of it toward my down payment.

A tax credit lowers your tax liability. The credit itself doesn't lower your tax payments, but you can lower them yourself to match the amount you expect your liability to be. The point isn't to lower your withholding to lower your liability. The point is to lower it because your liability will be lowered by the tax credit.

topher | 2016年4月28日

Ah. Understood. You aren't 'saving money', you are hoarding cash.

dd.micsol | 2016年4月28日

@george-what's the quality of those competitors cars? Do they have a proven track record? Does the battery hold up in bad temperatures? Do they have fast SC stations? Are they an American company? (some of them)
Just lots and lots of questions. Can those competitors build a good battery? Do you lose a lot of miles like you do in the leaf or bolt when it's cold? you get less than 1/2 your mileage below 36 degrees-neighbor showed me on his leaf and I've read the bolt is the same. The tech that's out there today by other companies is just horrific. Now I applaud their effort, but it's just not excellent engineering and superb technology. That's what you pay for in a Tesla and it is well worth every penny. I don't care if they are cheaper or suggest they go further on a charge.
How long does that battery take the charge? Can it charge at 480volts or 860volts? Just lots of unanswered questions.
And a tax incentive is only good if you're taxes are high enough to get it back. And they won't be offered forever.
You have to forget the incentives and just look at car quality itself. Get what you want to pay for. The best car for the best price in your price range. I'll leave it at that.