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Model 3 estimated UK price

Model 3 estimated UK price

I realise that this will be purely speculative at this stage, but what are everyone's guesses for the Model 3 base price (MSRP) in the UK? Some thoughts on this I've had:

- The target base price in the US is $35,000. This is around half of the retail price of the current Model S60D ($71,000).
- The Model S60D is around £57,900 inc. VAT. So half of this would be £28950. Is this a fair rough estimation of what the Model 3 might cost in the UK?

alex | 2016年9月15日

I think 30k and upward is about right

s2rogerjackson | 2016年9月15日

Is there still a discount for emissions in the ukl

Tom_pattison | 2016年9月15日

So £28950 - £4500 government grant? Fingers crossed :)

cars | 2016年9月15日

I should have mentioned, the price I quoted above (£57,900 for S60D) was before the OLEV incentive. I didn't include that in my calculation/thought process simply as I'm not sure if it will exist when the Model 3 is released...

But that's just the pessimist in me talking. I'm confident that it will as Richard Bruce who is head of the scheme sees it very much as a long-term thing that the government is very much committed to (google 'Fully Charged OLEV' for a neat video about this).

jordanrichard | 2016年9月15日

I guess only those in the UK could provide the most "accurate" speculation because for those of us in the U.S. we have no idea what kind of import tariffs or local UK taxes there may be.

cars | 2016年9月15日

Yeah, I appreciate it's difficult for many here to speculate on this if they're not from the UK. Even for those in the UK (like myself) it's tricky, which is why I was looking for inspiration from current Model S prices and how they compare in the UK and US. :)

dbrolfe | 2016年9月15日

£28950 would be the figure I'd hope for, although I'm preparing myself for it to be closer to the £35,000 so when they do reveal the actual price there's no shock and then best case scenario I've got either a less expensive car or the cash for extra options.

cars | 2016年9月15日

Sounds sensible! :)

jdanielp_uk | 2016年9月15日

£30000 was the cost of the base model in the UK that I remember being mentioned around the time of the launch, but I can't remember who said that. Bear in mind that imported technology product prices are on the rise recently (I wonder why), e.g. the iPhone 7 and accessories cost around the same (or more!) in pounds as in dollars now, so I wouldn't be that suprised by £35000, although Tesla hasn't increased the price of its other models in a comparable way, yet... A lot could change (hopefully for the better) in the next couple of years in any case though so who knows? I too saw the interview on Fully Charged with Richard Bruce and I'm cautiously optimistic about government grants.

bj | 2016年9月15日

I spread-sheeted a scatter diagram of the retail prices in Australia of all the various Model S and Model X configs against the corresponding (pre-incentive) prices in the USA. This builds in all the shipping and import costs, government taxes etc. Yes I know, I'm a sad individual.

The scatter diagram was almost perfectly linear and hence produced a fairly good formula for converting retail price in USA to the retail price in Australia. Doing that, I think I get a very good estimate of what the base Model 3 will retail for here, since we know in USA it will be $35k.

I'm sure you could do the same in UK.

cars | 2016年9月15日

Not sad at all! I did a very simplistic alternative calculation rather than diagram using the 'average scaling factor' as it were between US and UK prices for a range of Tesla models (S and X). Not the super-expensive ones mind. These were the figures

Tesla S60 = £53,860
Tesla S60 US = $66,000 (£50,332)
Tesla S60D = £58,280
Tesla S60D US = $71,000 (£54,121)

S Factor = *1.073 avg.

Tesla X60D = £64,480
Tesla X60D US = $74,000 (£56,433)
Tesla X75D = £74,480
Tesla X75D US = $83,000 (£63,269)

X Factor = *1.155 avg.

So the SX Factor (hah) average would be 1.114. So for the Model 3 that would be $35,000 * 1.114 = $38990 = ~£29461.

bj | 2016年9月16日

@cars - the formula I came up with was AUD = 1.52 X USD - 900. So base Model 3 using that formula would be AUD $52,300.

There are no incentives in Australia for EVs.

mark | 2016年9月16日

I would be pleased if it came in at under £30k base but I doubt it.

The exchange rate is worse since Brexit , and $35,000 is around £27,700. With 20|% VAT that's around £33,000 and thats assuming UK = US pricing. Using the 1.07 ratio above that makes it around £35,000, so my guess is it will be the same in pounds as dollars.

With the £4500 grant (assuming it will still exist) you may get a basic car just over £30k but a decent spec car with options could be £35-40k

Red Sage ca us | 2016年9月16日

Below are some items from Tesla Motors' 10-Q filing in regard to 'exchange rates'...
http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-16-23024&CIK=1318605#...

Other Income (Expense), Net Other income (expense), net, consists primarily of foreign exchange gains and losses related to our foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities. We expect our foreign exchange gains and losses will vary depending upon movements in the underlying exchange rates. Other income (expense) was ($7.4) million and $1.8 million in the three and six months ended June 30, 2016, as compared to $13.2 million and ($9.1) million during the same period in 2015. Fluctuations in other income (expense) are primarily the result of gains (losses) from foreign currency exchange of ($7.2) million and $0.8 million in the three and six months ended June 30, 2016, and $12.8 million and ($8.8) million during the same period in 2015.

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ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK Foreign Currency Risk We transact business globally in multiple currencies. Our international revenues, as well as costs and expenses denominated in foreign currencies, expose us to the risk of fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates against the functional currencies of our foreign subsidiaries and against the U.S. dollar. Upon consolidation, as foreign exchange rates vary, revenues and expenses may be significantly impacted and we may record significant gains or losses on the remeasurement of monetary assets and liabilities, including intercompany balances. As of June 30, 2016, our largest currency exposures are from the euro, Chinese yuan, Hong Kong dollars, euros and Japanese yen . We recorded foreign exchange gains of $0.8 million in other income (expense), net, for the six months ended June 30, 2016 related the impact of changes in exchange rates on foreign currency denominated monetary assets and liabilities. We considered the historical trends in currency exchange rates and determined that it was reasonably possible that adverse changes in exchange rates of 10% for all currencies could be experienced in the near term. These reasonably possible adverse changes in exchange rates of 10% were applied to total monetary assets and liabilities denominated in currencies other than the functional currencies as of June 30, 2016 to compute the adverse impact these changes would have had on our income before income taxes in the near term. These changes would have resulted in an adverse impact on income before income taxes of approximately $294.5 million, recorded to other income (expense), net, principally from intercompany and cash balances. In November 2015, we implemented a program to hedge the foreign currency exposure risk related to certain forecasted inventory purchases denominated in Japanese yen. The derivative instruments we use are foreign currency forward contracts and are designated as cash flow hedges with maturity dates of 12 months or less. We do not enter into derivative contracts for trading or speculative purposes. We document each hedge relationship and assess its initial effectiveness at the inception of the hedge contract and we measure its ongoing effectiveness on a quarterly basis using regression analysis. During the term of an effective hedge contract, we record gains and losses within accumulated other comprehensive loss. We reclassify these gains or losses to costs of automotive sales in the period the related finished goods inventory is sold or over the depreciation period for those sales accounted for as leases. Although our contracts are considered effective hedges, we may experience small amounts of ineffectiveness due to timing differences between our actual inventory purchases and the settlement date of the relate d foreign currency forward contracts. Ineffectiveness related to the hedges is immaterial as of June 30, 2016. As of June 30, 2016 we had recorded a cumulative gain of $ 38.3 million to AOCI related to our outstanding foreign currency cash flow hedges. If t he U.S. dollar had strengthened by 10% as of June 30, 2016, the gain recorded in AOCI related to our cumulative foreign exchange contracts before tax effect would have been reduced by approximately $ 22.4 million.

--------

We are exposed to fluctuations in currency exchange rates, which could negatively affect our financial results. Our revenues and costs denominated in foreign currencies are not completely matched. As we have increased Model S deliveries in markets outside of the United States, we have much higher revenues than costs denominated in other currencies such as the euro, Chinese renminbi, Norwegian kroner, British pound and Canadian dollar. Any strengthening of the U.S. dollar would tend to reduce our revenues as measured in U.S. dollars, as we have historically experienced. In addition, a portion of our costs and expenses have been, and we anticipate will continue to be, denominated in foreign currencies, including the Japanese yen. If we do not have fully offsetting revenues in these currencies and if the value of the U.S. dollar depreciates significantly against these currencies, our costs as measured in U.S. dollars as a percent of our revenues will correspondingly increase and our margins will suffer. Moreover, while we undertake limited hedging activities intended to offset the impact of currency translation exposure, it is impossible to predict or eliminate such impact. As a result, our operating results could be adversely affected.

cars | 2016年9月16日

Maybe I'm misinterpreting this, but it sounds as if the company essentially 'absorbs' a lot of fluctuation in currency rather than changing the price of their vehicles accordingly. If so, that would explain why the Model S 60D (for example) costs $71,000 which is ~£54,275 or ~£65,130 inc. VAT. Yet the UK price is 'only' actually £57,900 including VAT.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年9月16日

cars: Yes. That is my impression as well. I think they strategically absorb the fluctuations for a certain amount of time... Then they make an adjustment to their prices across the board all at once, usually to a higher price point, while also including more features at the base price.

home | 2016年9月16日

I'm assuming $35k will translate to £35k. Would be happy if it were less though.

cars | 2016年9月16日

I don't buy that $35,000 will end up as £35,000. As above, it is not how it works with the Model S (or X) so I don't know why the Model 3 would be any different.

bj | 2016年9月17日

@cars - if you can provide the GBP retail prices for the S P90D, X P90 and X P90D (and additional variants, if you have them) then I can plug the data straight into my s/sheet and give you the GBP formula :). Basically the more data points the better, four data points (as per your original post) is not enough to produce a reliable formula.

cars | 2016年9月17日

Good shout. Here is an exhaustive list, including list prices for all Model Ss and Model Xs in the UK and US. The UK prices include VAT and the bracketed £ price for the US models is simply a straight currency conversion without any VAT.

Model S 60 UK = £53,500
Model S 60D UK = £57,900
Model S 75 UK = £60,900
Model S 75D UK = £65,300
Model S 90D UK = £74,900
Model S P90D UK = £94,600
Model S P100D UK = £114,200
Model X 60D UK = £64,100
Model X 75D UK = £71,900
Model X 90D UK = £82,400
Model X P90D UK = £99,800
Model X P100D UK = £117,200

Model S 60 US = $66,000 (£50,569)
Model S 60D US = $71,000 (£54,615)
Model S 75 US = $74,500 (£57,308)
Model S 75D US = $79,500 (£61,154)
Model S 90D US = $89,500 (£68,846)
Model S P90D US = $112,000 (£86,154)
Model S P100D US = $134,500 (£103,462)
Model X 60D US = $76,500 (£58,846)
Model X 75D US = $85,500 (£65,769)
Model X 90D US = $95,500 (£73,462)
Model X P90D US = $115,500 (£88,846)
Model X 100D US = $135,500 (£104,231)

It's quite clear from this list that you shouldn't just take a US list price ($35,000 for the Model 3, perhaps) and then stick a £ in front instead. Neither should one assume that the UK price will be the US price plus VAT, as that certainly hasn't been the trend so far.

cars | 2016年9月17日

Oops, the last model there is of course the Model X P100D not just the 100D. :)

jdanielp_uk | 2016年9月17日

Neither should one assume that the current pricing trends will be the same in a year and a half ;)

cars | 2016年9月17日

That's true, although I remain optimistic. But respect people expecting the worst but hoping for the best to avoid disappointment. ;)

jdanielp_uk | 2016年9月17日

I hope you're right :)

bj | 2016年9月17日

@cars - thank for that :) all those data points really helped. The result is below:

The approximate formula this produces is Retail Price in GBP = USD * 0.904 - 5810 (where USD is the retail price of the corresponding Tesla model in USA in US dollars).

So this trendline estimates base Model 3 in UK will retail at £25 830 (if exchange rate and taxes remain unchanged).

Now this might look low, and will be wrong if the trendline is not in fact straight but some kind of curve. It depends on how car taxes in the UK operate, e.g. are they perfectly linear, or progressive (i.e. tax rate increases as price of a good increases, or only kicks in after a threshold, etc). The trendline suggests that Model 3 attracts relatively less tax than the higher priced Tesla cars, and this produces a lower estimate than all the ones posted above to date.

I suggest this is all taken with a grain of salt! But interesting nonetheless!

cars | 2016年9月18日

That is indeed interesting. Thanks for putting that together! :) I personally think the actual price will end up around £30k base in the UK, so some way between what your formula estimates and what some pessimists estimate. Haha. But we're all just guessing at this stage, of course, but it's certainly nice to have it graphed out like that based on current models.

mark | 2016年9月18日

Interesting stuff. Thanks cars & bj for providing the data. I will remain sceptical though, so as not to be too disappointed when the time arrives :)

On this basis it is saying UK pricing before tax is cheaper than US pricing? i.e a Model S60 in the US is £50,569 ($66,000) before tax, and in the UK it is only £44,583 (£53,500 less 20% VAT) Seems odd.

dbrolfe | 2016年9月18日

BJ, cars - thanks to both of you for that effort. As has been acknowledged above this is all best guesstimations. I think my £35,000 figure came from some highly technical* method of US price converted to UK, plus tax, document fees and rounded up with fudge factor... Or something along those lines.

I imagine when we have reveal number two we'll still be just as much in the dark and the figures won't be released until production is well underway, a fair few of the beta testers - sorry, I mean Americans - have received their cars and Tesla finally get round to considering the RHD markets.

On the plus side, at least we will eventually get the option to buy it unlike the Vauxhall Ampere-E.

* read: I have no idea now how the hell I came up with that!

dbrolfe | 2016年9月18日

BJ, cars - thanks to both of you for that effort. As has been acknowledged above this is all best guesstimations. I think my £35,000 figure came from some highly technical* method of US price converted to UK, plus tax, document fees and rounded up with fudge factor... Or something along those lines.

I imagine when we have reveal number two we'll still be just as much in the dark and the figures won't be released until production is well underway, a fair few of the beta testers - sorry, I mean Americans - have received their cars and Tesla finally get round to considering the RHD markets.

On the plus side, at least we will eventually get the option to buy it unlike the Vauxhall Ampere-E.

* read: I have no idea now how the hell I came up with that!

bj | 2016年9月18日

@dbrolfe - local pricing is revealed once the Configurator is open, e.g. Model X pricing was revealed in Oz when the Configurator opened last month. So unfortunately we won't know Model 3 pricing for sure until the Configurator opens in our respective countries - around late Q4 2017 if Tesla stays on target.

dbrolfe | 2016年9月18日

That makes perfect sense, I suppose it doesn't matter what the price is until that point really.

I think in my head I wasn't associating the reveal of the price with anything else, but logically how else would you get your final figure unless you've done the configuration. I'll go back to lurking now to stop myself looking any more silly.

jdanielp_uk | 2016年9月29日

I just received an email from my local store manager as follows: 'Price Increase Countdown: Only 1 More Day!

I hope all is well! I wanted to make you aware of some important information - At the end of this month there is going to be a price increase on all custom order Tesla vehicles. It has been several months since the UK decided to leave Europe and as a result the pound has fallen against the dollar by about 15%. This isn't to say that the price of our vehicles will increase by that amount, and as of yet we are still unsure of the exact amount but it is fair to say that it will be a meaningful increase.

As you have shown interest in purchasing a Tesla previously I just wanted to make you aware of the situation and to be as transparent as possible. Therefore, in order to secure the current prices for your new vehicle you will need to look at placing an order by the end of September. We can always defer delivery until next year if that is when you were wanting a new vehicle thus ensuring that you won't be paying anymore for your perfect car!

If you would like us to look into Trade-ins or any funding quotes then please do get in touch – I look forward to hearing from you soon!'

The title (first line quoted) and wording of the email implies to me that this is something that Tesla UK has been planning for some time so I'm confused as to why I'm hearing about this for the first time with just the one day to react. It will be interesting to see what effect this has on the prices of the S and X, but I'm glad I was pessimistic.

starcrusader | 2016年9月29日

Weird, because by the time the 3 is ready to order the currency difference might have vanished.

cars | 2016年9月29日

Yes indeed. By the time the Model 3 is released the exchange rate situation could be very different.

bj | 2016年9月29日

@jdanielp_uk - of course Tesla will regularly review their pricing in every market due to exchange rage variations. But any change they make now applies only to vehicles they currently sell, and Model 3 is not one of those.

So @starcrusader - that email does not apply to Model 3, in the sense that Model 3 pricing will be determined in the UK just before the Configurator opens in the UK, and will be based on whatever the exchange rate determines at the time. If the GBP-USD exchange rate recovers to pre-Brexit position by then, that's what the pricing would be based on, not the exchange rate position 18 months earlier.

jdanielp_uk | 2016年9月30日

Yeah, I spoke to a guy in my local store today and he said that Tesla has been losing out quite considerably per UK purchase in recent months, although the volume of sales has been helping to keep things looking buoyant overall.

cars | 2016年10月2日

So what happened to this price increase? It's October 2nd and prices online using the configurator are exactly the same. I'm not complaining, just curious.

jdanielp_uk | 2016年10月2日

Good question! I checked yesterday and didn't notice any changes. Did anyone else receive an email along the lines of what I posted above? I suspect that I only received that because I test drove a Model S a few years ago.

brando | 2016年10月3日

reminder; a lot of variables and over how many days/weeks/months?

[factory orders and takes deliveries on raw materials and parts]

reserve/deposit
configuration of options
delivery

When do you bring the money back into the US?
Or perhaps you spend locally on SuperChargers/Stores/satellite offices (Norway center for cold weather engineering and testing for Tesla as an example)

Trying to follow currency fluctuations to change prices a big negative for both staff and customers. So seems it would be good to minimize these fluctuations. Customer experience is a Tesla concern/advantage.

Do other auto makers sell direct in the UK?
How does the buying experience compare? That would be interesting to know.

jdanielp_uk | 2016年10月5日

I was listening to Ryan McCaffrey's latest Ride the Lightning podcast today, in which he discussed Tesla's soon to be announced Quarter 3 performance and the suggestion that sales staff may have been pushing to achieve extra sales for the quarter to help make Tesla look good - this got me thinking about that email from my store manager and the end of September cut off date before the supposed UK price increase that is seemingly yet to happen... Is this a coincidence? I suspect not. Having said that, I will be surprised if the prices don't increase sometime soon.

cars | 2016年10月7日

Aha. The UK prices have been updated now. Not surprising given the terrible currency conversion rate currently. The new prices for reference:

Model S 60 UK = £55,100
Model S 60D UK = £59,700
Model S 75 UK = £63,000
Model S 75D UK = £67,600
Model S 90D UK = £77,500
Model S P90D UK = £98,200
Model S P100D UK = £118,900
Model X 60D UK = £68,200
Model X 75D UK = £76,500
Model X 90D UK = £85,000
Model X P90D UK = £103,400
Model X P100D UK = £121,800

jdanielp_uk | 2016年10月8日

Well that's a fairly modest increase given the circumstances.

cars | 2016年10月8日

Agreed. :)