Comparing 1986 to 2016

Comparing 1986 to 2016

I've been wondering how technology in the electric vehicle area compares to the advancement of personal computers in the 1980's. Remember the Commodore 64 and the Apple 2e? Will we look back at the Model 3 the same way we look back ate the Apple 2e? Or a Commodore 64 with a tape drive? Compare those to today's cloud computing and hand held devices. 20 years from now, will the performance and range of the Model 3, which we all expect to be great, seem completely inferior? Interesting to think what Tesla might be producing 10+ years from now.

Tarla's Driver | 2016年9月20日

That thinking is the reason that leases are particularly popular on EVs. Excluding Tesla, it's 75% leases in the US (the Tesla numbers aren't public). On the other hand, the current Tesla cars are incredible vehicles, so I bought my Model S and intend to keep it for a very long time. And considering that EVs have a longer life expectancy, who knows when I will have a reason to replace it? The only likely expense will be in a decade or so I may want to replace my degraded battery with what will then be a much cheaper and much higher capacity battery.

Oh, and my Model S is nothing like a Commodore 64 or Apple ][. If anything, it's like the vastly superior Atari 800. :)

rgrant | 2016年9月20日

+1 Tarla's Driver (cut my programming teeth on an Atari 400, how I longed for a real keyboard :D )

Red Sage ca us | 2016年9月20日

1986 saw the US debut of the Hyundai Excel. But the Chevrolet C4 Corvette was around too.

Sure, the Commodore C-64 is most renowned, but do note that the Commodore Amiga and Atari ST were each pretty new then too.

In 1986 the only commercial electric car that I was aware of hadn't been seen on US roads for around ten years...

brando | 2016年9月20日

From Tesla SEC quarterly report filing SEC 10Q form
[look at browser view (blue link) and use ctrl-f to search, see search box upper right?]

Vehicle sales to leasing partners with a residual value guarantee

We also offer residual value guarantees in connection with automobile sales to certain bank leasing partners. As we have guaranteed the value of these vehicles and as the vehicles are leased to end-customers, we account for these transactions as interest bearing collateralized borrowings as required under ASC 840 - Leases . Under this program, cash is received for the full price of the vehicle and is recorded within resale value guarantees for the long-term portion and deferred revenue for the current portion. We accrete the deferred revenue amount to automotive revenue on a straight line basis over the guarantee period and accrue interest expense based on our borrowing rate. We capitalize vehicles under this program to operating lease vehicles on our Consolidated Balance Sheets and we record depreciation from these vehicles to cost of automotive revenues during the period the vehicle is under a lease arrangement. Cash received for these vehicles, net of revenue recognized during the period, is classified as collateralized lease borrowings within cash flows from financing activities in our Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows.

At the end of the lease term, we settle our liability in cash by either purchasing the vehicle from the leasing partner for the residual value guarantee amount, or paying a shortfall to the guarantee amount the leasing partner may realize on the sale of the vehicle. Any remaining balances within deferred revenue and resale value guarantee will be settled to automotive revenue. In cases where the bank retains ownership of the vehicle after the end of our guarantee period, we expense the net value of the leased vehicle to costs of automotive revenue . The maximum cash we could be required to pay under this program, should we decide to repurchase all vehicles is $ 597.7 million at June 30, 2016.

As of June 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, we had $851.9 million and $527.5 million of such borrowings recorded in resale value guarantees and $210.5 million and $120.5 million recorded in deferred revenue liability, respectively.

On a quarterly basis, we assess the estimated market values of vehicles under our resale value guarantee program to determine if we have sustained a loss on any of these contracts. As we accumulate more data related to the resale values of our vehicles or as market conditions change, there may be material changes to their estimated values.

Vehicle Leasing Program

We offer a leasing program in the United States, Canada, the UK and Germany. Qualifying customers are permitted to lease a vehicle directly from Tesla for 36 or 48 months. At the end of the lease term, customers have the option of either returning the vehicle to us or purchasing it for a determined residual value. We account for these leasing transactions as operating leases and recognize leasing revenues over the contractual term and record the depreciation of these vehicles to cost of automotive revenues. As of June 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, we had deferred $42.1 million and $25.8 million of lease-related upfront payments which will be recognized on a straight-line basis over the contractual term of the individual leases. Lease revenues are recorded in automotive revenue and were $23.9 million and $40.6 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2016. Lease revenues for the three and six months ended June 30, 2015, were $9.3 million and $15.9 million, respectively.

Above link will give you accounting book like numbers.

You could use $100,000 per Model S and approximate the actual count. Someone care to try?

reminder all Tesl Motors SEC filings
[look at browser view (blue link) and use ctrl-f to search, see search box upper right?]

topher | 2016年9月23日

If one had made a prediction back in 1986, about what computers would do in 2016, the result would not be far from what we actually have. The internet existed, mouse based windowing systems existed. Better, faster, smaller, were all predicted at that time. Some subtleties have been a surprise either in their existence or non-existence.

The corresponding experts seem to be predicting battery technology growth at a rate of 5% per year. While not as fast as Moore's law, it is nevertheless another example of exponential growth, with a doubling time of 14 years.

Other technologies in the car will also likely advance, upgrading your 10 year old Tesla Model ≡, won't be much different from upgrading your computer. Software, whenever there is an improvement, hardware slowly as makes financial sense, the 'case' only when something physical happens to it, or as fashion dictates, depending on your temperament.

Thank you kindly.

gregcropper | 2016年9月23日

I know a lot of people will think I'm crazy but I would be surprised if in 30 years there wasn't some kind of inductive charging network that would allow people to drive on the interstate highways without stopping at all. Their autonomous cars will be able to take them from coast to coast stopping only to eat or use the restroom.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年9月24日

gregcropper: That's what I expected to be in place at least ten or fifteen years ago, with flying cars available by now. But what the heck do I know? I also expected we would have a manned base or three on Mars thirty years ago. Mostly, I have misunderstood the level of inertia there is to prevent such changes from taking place at the pace that would be most beneficial. I am a fan of Tesla Motors because their cars are the first example of truly futuristic change to modern society I have seen during my adult life. It amazes me that some think they are moving too fast, because I have expected this since early childhood.