Have we reached a 'tipping point'? (Paris auto show)

Have we reached a 'tipping point'? (Paris auto show)

It seems Daimler, VW and Renault have starting to seriously invest into good EVs. Of course there is no evidence of associated investments into big battery factories (other than VW) that are needed to produce mass market cars, so the prices of these new EVs may be still high, or the production numbers may be low.

But are we seeing the tipping point now? - what do you think

KP in NPT | 2016年9月29日

I think for now they are vaporware - but yes, the fact they are all showing BEVs is a great thing. The Renault Zoe looks very interesting and I see that (or cars like it) being a big hit in cities in Europe. I look forward to seeing it when I'm there on work trips.

I can hear EM's evil laugh. ;)

KP in NPT | 2016年9月29日

(Sorry that wasn't clear. The Zoe is not vaporware.)

Silver2K | 2016年9月29日

why do these cars have to look like toys?

KP in NPT | 2016年9月29日

Well i agree there, Silver. But in the case of the Zoe, that type of body style is pretty common in Europe, since cars tend to be smaller. It looks like a lot of cars on the road there now. The Golf is also incredibly popular and the VW prototype shown looks like the natural progression.. They will be great EVs for the markets that cars like them currently serve.

gguinto | 2016年9月29日

@Silver - I think that's one of the reasons why Tesla appealed to more people. I owned a Prius before and I couldn't stand the looks of it. I don't get that logic either.

Al1 | 2016年9月29日

I wonder how serious investment is defined there. Most of the soundbites are about concept cars.

KP in NPT | 2016年9月29日

At least Mercedes is talking about a Tesla-type plan - charging, home charging, and home batteries.

gguinto | 2016年9月29日

Someone should double-check that 370-mile range that VW is touting. Make sure there's no cheating software behind it. LOL

SO | 2016年9月29日

They are probably just increasing the odometer rate. Ha ha.

makobill | 2016年9月29日

I think right now they are talking the talk due to Tesla's popularity. Whether they walk the walk or not is too early to tell. I wouldn't own a VW EV if it was 1/2 the cost of a Tesla M3. That company needs to be 'done' as far as I'm concerned...

johndoeeyed | 2016年9月29日

They need to invest in multiple large battery factories, or have their suppliers do it, to be serious.
At this stage they are not serious at all, just playing about on the fringes.

Ross1 | 2016年9月29日
David N | 2016年9月29日

To date, its all talk no action.
Concept cars mean nothing.
Other than the Bolt, I don't see anyone else putting forth a serious effort (even GM's effort is questionable).
When we see multiple manufacturers offering :
* 200-300+ mile range cars
* hundreds of quick charge stations to allow cross country travel
Only then will you see the tipping point.
Until then they are just blowing smoke.
On a positive note, at least most manufacturers are at least "talking" about EV's.
Even with all their talk, one must take it with a grain of salt. Tesla will have the battery capacity for 500,000+ cars a year. Without a battery gigafactory type plant for all these "proposed cars" supposedly coming out, there is no way it's going to happen.
Assume that each manufacturer will want to sell at least 200,000-500,000 EV's, that means that you'll need a gigafactory for each manufacturer.
Unless I've missed something, I haven't heard or read about any of these needed battery factories currently under construction.
Until you see a bunch of battery factories being built, its all a bunch of crap.

ram1901 | 2016年9月29日

Only one company has had an over 200 mile range EV on the road since 2012. Not VW, MB, BMW. ONLY Tesla.

It is NOT enough to claim to be on the path to building EV's and it's even more annoying to claim that your EV will have a longer range and a faster charge time when your company only produces a short range EV at present. I'm talking VW.

When any of the big players actually have over 100,000 nicely designed, long range, free supercharging cars on the road, then they can start the bragging rights. Instead we have BMW trying to get Model 3 owners to buy a plugin hybrid that only goes about 20-30 miles on a charge before switching to gas.

The big guys have a long way to go and Tesla already has a 4 year head start on them.

ram1901 | 2016年9月29日

P.S. I'll believe them when I actually see their cars on the road and being aggressively sold by their ICE dealer networks. Not gonna happen anytime soon.

dansplans | 2016年9月30日

"no evidence of associated investments into big battery factories"

LG Chem and others will continue to build as many battery factories as needed, Capacity utilization of lithium ion battery factories worldwide is quite low. There is no rush to build more battery capacity.

johndoeeyed | 2016年9月30日

Of course there needs to be a rush to build new battery factories. The fact that there is not, except by Tesla, shows that the other car makers are not interested in the mass market.
You have no idea whatsoever about the capacity utilisation of lithium ion battery factories worldwide. You simply made that fact up, as you often do. Nothing you say can be trusted.

dansplans | 2016年9月30日

"Global average utilization was estimated at 22% at the beginning of 2014."

"The cost of a battery made at a plant manufacturing at a 30% capacity may, for example, be a full 50% higher than that made at a plant working at 80-90% of capacity."

"Global average utilization was estimated at 22% at thebeginning of 2014, and is expected to reach 40% in 2016"

Batteries are not an impediment to many auto manufacturers producing EV's.

johndoeeyed | 2016年9月30日

You should research your links better.

Let's get rid of one of your quotes first, since it is so easy to do:
"The cost of a battery made at a plant manufacturing at a 30% capacity may, for example, be a full 50% higher than that made at a plant working at 80-90% of capacity."
This is a thought experiment only and says nothing about the actuality. Even from the quote itself, you could say that utilisation may be 90%. This quote is useless.

Now for the second quote:
"Global average utilization was estimated at 22% at the beginning of 2014, and is expected to reach 40% in 2016"
The 22% came from the beginning of 2014 i.e. almost 3 years ago. Even so, the source, from June 2015, expected it to have almost doubled in 2016. EV sales in 2015 were about 2 1/2 times what they were at the start of 2014, so the plants which were 22% utilised at the start of 2014 would be over 50% utilised at the start of 2016. 2016 has seen about 50% more growth so they could be 75-100% utilised now. But really, you have no idea what the utilisation of the battery factories is now, as opposed to 3 years ago.

johndoeeyed | 2016年9月30日

Like I said, nothing you post can be trusted.

codyb12889 | 2016年10月1日

The tipping point will come after consumers start buying from those people and "vote with their wallet" that they should make more and nicer looking BEVs.

Currently I see those projects as nothing more than some free advertising off the coat tails of the Tesla hype and a way to get their zero emissions credits cheaper by selling at a loss direct to consumer as oppose to just paying cash for them. Also, these projects could easily be just to appease investors in saying that yes we are making sure to keep up with a possible subset of our market.

I see the tipping point as having been reached once Tesla has about 300 - 500 thousands M3s on the road and can show they were profitable on those cars. At that point it will be proven that there is ample consumer demand and that it can be met with some measure of profitability. Also at that point the companies would have issues with shareholders questioning why they would invest in a car company that is missing out on such a large chuck of the market.

dansplans | 2016年10月1日

I know it amounts to talking to a rock........several LIB plants have come online since 2014, so utilization rates are not a simply linear progression from 2014 to 2016. The growth in China also is not a factor to consider, as it is a closed system, and has zero impact outside of China. As BYD expands EV sales, BYD produces more LIBs. No one exports EVs(very few) or LIBs to China, so any inclusion of Chinese sales distorts the facts for the rest of the world.

The gigafactory will lower utilization when it comes online.

There is simple no shortage of LIB capacity in the world. LIB production can keep pace with increases in EV sales, as needed.

johndoeeyed | 2016年10月1日

You failed to read my post properly.
I finished it with "But really, you have no idea what the utilisation of the battery factories is now, as opposed to 3 years ago."
Firstly, you have no idea.
Secondly, EV production is growing so quickly that the current plants cannot produce the required batteries for the next year or two, never mind after that.
I gave you the information. I walked you through the figures. You are entirely wrong, as demonstrated.
You proposed a bet where the loser leaves the forum.
I accepted that bet.
You lost that bet.
Nothing you say can be trusted.

grashelm | 2016年10月1日

@johndoeeyed you said to @dansplans "You proposed a bet where the loser leaves the forum.
I accepted that bet.
You lost that bet.
Nothing you say can be trusted."
Everyone knows this statement is rubbish...patently false...absurd...ridiculous and a lie of almost Trumpian proportions. Yet you continue to post it OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN!!!! Please have some dignity and just leave this forum quietly.

johndoeeyed | 2016年10月1日

You are incorrect and a well established troll.

carlk | 2016年10月1日

It's definitely a positive development. No matter what they will eventually do it legitimized EV in people's mind. If Mercedes and VW is coming in in a significant way then it must not just a niche product by a small start up company.

jordanrichard | 2016年10月2日

Until one can place an order/reservation for ANY of these cars, it's all talk. No company wants to be seen as being yesterday's news. So all of this is "me too" BS.

I just "love" how the media says "...Mercedes is building a EV SUV, Tesla should be scared"... One Tesla/Elon wants more EVs on the road, so they aren't "scared". Two, until it is actually available to order, it is all just talk.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年10月6日

No. Not yet. When traditional automobile manufacturers largely move to make at least 20% of their vehicles as fully electric, instead of just 'electrified' hybrid gasoline cars, the 'tipping point' will be in full action. That may require that regulatory agencies begin to require higher fuel economy ratings, in excess of 70 MPG on average from their fleets.

Al1 | 2016年10月6日

Tipping point will be reached when model 3 will be selling at really high numbers and showing above 100% year on year growth.

brando | 2016年10月9日

Benz sold their Tesla stock. After looking a above links one may wonder who is copying who? [whom?]
Elon seems to have gotten GM and Benz to start down the road of electrification. Not Elons fault they both seem lacking in execution.

bgbythsea | 2016年10月25日

The tipping point will have just begun when the majority of the driving public realizes that they don't need more than 250 miles of range and DCQC's are being built all over the place. Tesla seems always to be supply constrained and I think the EV market will remain so for a generation.

lar_lef | 2016年10月26日

Thread is about cars tipping point, but overal tipping point for oil replacement favorable as per sidebars announcing solar storage and portable lighting facilities around world. It all helps.

brando | 2016年10月28日

Good summary of some of the current Lithium battery production.
https://www.greentechmedia com/articles/read/why-are-early-adopters-of-lithium-ion-battery-manufacturing-getting-out-of

http://energy.sourceguides com/businesses/byP/batP/batt/btora/bType/lion/byB/manufacturers/manufacturers.shtml


So a search on something like

lithium ion battery factories

Will supply you with many interesting articles to catch up on Lithium Ion battery production.

David N | 2016年10月28日

"But are we seeing the tipping point now? - what do you think"

Tipping point is 2020

bgbythsea | 2016年10月28日

Using the metaphor of a leaky, listing boat, wouldn't tipping point be the point at which capsize is inevitable? That can only happen when the world production and use of electric vehicles is increasing at a rate that will inevitably overtake and consume that of ICE's. About 25% (my guesstimate) of the cars in use would be electric and the majority of owners of gas cars will be planning to make the switch to electric in their foreseeable future. At present, the boat is leaking, the leaks are increasing, but efforts to plug the leaks and pump the inflow are also being undertaken. I wish it were, but I don't think the sinking of the gas engine is inevitable quite yet. My kid is 16, and I think he might see it in his lifetime.

JeffreyR | 2016年10月28日

The inevitability of the tip I think is the key part of the analogy. The fact that BEVs dominated the Paris Show and MS outsold S Class and 7-Series combined are both strong indicators. Battery production is the big hold up now. GF-01 is still being built and GF-02-10 are not planned yet. But, others (MB, VW, LG, BMW, BYD, FF, etc.) are picking up production too. If Elon is able to pull off The Great Ramp Up by 2018/19 then that should help a lot.

As mentioned above 2020 is a big line in the sand. If the global economy can stay on the rails, then by 2025 so much will have progressed we won't even question it. Think about a battery pack that has twice the power w/ half the cost/weight/volume. Talk about an end to range anxiety!

bgbythsea | 2016年10月29日

I hope so. Another factor which could bring on the tipping point sooner is that between 2020 and 2025 there will already be lots of pre-owned EV's in the world. One can already get reasonable deals on used BEV's. When the masses and those below the mean on the income scale realize how inexpensive the electric cars are to operate and maintain, there may actually be an upturn in the retained value of used EV's. Should EV's become viewed as investments rather than a depreciating expenditure, the tipping point will be occurring.

I vaguely recall a period in the '70s when some sporty imported cars were so hot in the market, that some owners actually realized appreciation in the value of their cars, so the scenario above that I hypothesize is not without precedent.

David N | 2016年10月29日

Auto production will cease to offer any new ICE vehicles by 2030.

bgbythsea | 2016年10月29日

@David N. Just over 13 years from now? Pretty bold statement. I think double that.

David N | 2016年10月29日

"Pretty bold statement"
Yes, I agree. A bit scary when you consider all the changes that might take place on such a large scale so quickly, affecting tens of thousands of people employed in current auto field.
Here is a must watch video, about 50 minutes so set time aside.
When I post the link it triggers spam on this forum so search YouTube
"Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030 - Oslo, March 2016"
I think you'll find it interesting.

JeffreyR | 2016年10月30日

@David N here you go:
Just post the unique ID and let us know the title. On a phone or table the "Kxryv2XrnqM" is easy to deal with.

Red Sage ca us | 2016年10月30日

David N: Yes, the videos by Tony Seba are pretty awesome. His presentations are actually rather conservative from my point of view. Those who doubt the time frame are destined to be very surprised within the next decade, as unprepared companies thought of as 'strong' today begin to fall apart.

David N | 2016年10月30日

Thank you

brando | 2016年10月30日

Tipping Point - Tony Seba explains - really great talk - learn alot

Great video, everyone should watch. JefferyR, Red, brando, DavidN, will all agree on that!

And JB two cents worth
https://youtu DOT be/B2AoF-K0E_0?t=47m24s

bgbythsea | 2016年10月31日

David N,
Thanks, great video. This is one case where I'm glad I may actually be wrong!

Red Sage ca us | 2016年11月2日

"Wait... Where did all the horses go?"

They were put out to pasture. Now we only show them off in parades, at amusement parks, or on weekends when they race on a closed course. You know, just for fun, or nostalgia!

"Wait... Where did all the ICE vehicles go?"

Well, they were put out to pasture...

brando | 2016年11月3日

note: I suspect dansplans gets many stats about Lithium batteries from this DOE report dated April 2016 Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center. But I think this is a very sloppy report. Why?
2012 info about 10 times, 2013 info used about 20 times, 2014 information used over 20 times.
http://www.nrel dot gov/docs/fy16osti/66086.pdf

A more resent report, is more up to date, and perhaps I'm too cynical, so best you review on your own. Alway try for original sources vs opinions of those sources (exceptions might include, Ross, Mr. Sage, BigHorn - and I still try to double check. Such a cynic I am.
http://energy dot gov/sites/prod/files/2015/06/f23/Lithium-ion%20Battery%20CEMAC.pdf

Check out the map on page 11 along with the table.

Fully Commissioned MWh 51,549
Partially Commissioned MWh 3,576
Under Constructions MWh 21,130
Announced MWh 48,412 (about 70% is Tesla GigaFactory)

Please go read for yourself. Note how many charts actually rely on 2011 to 2013 data and then simply do a straight line "forecast" into the future. The map on page 11 shows GigaFactory at 35MWh and not 50MWh and certainly not the recent Elon/JB speculation of 2x or 3x possible output. Interesting times, fast changing, predictions are hard, especially of the future.

dansplans might be right, the only one limited by batteries is Tesla and Tesla is fixing the problem IMHO, even if dansplans doesn't agree.

Try your own internet searches. I don't find much information on production that is current.

Let the Electrification Begin!