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Those of you wondering when the next Model 3 "unveil" will be

Those of you wondering when the next Model 3 "unveil" will be

It will be when testing of the Model 3 that is going into production is 100% complete. Being that all true range numbers, acceleration, and all of the specifications that we have been asking about for the past year will be 100% accurate and confirmed.

All specifications, options, and pricing will be determined and available. Tesla is not going to give any updates about the Model 3 until testing is complete. So if they are supposedly going to start production on the 20th, expect around the end of March into April like last year. Although there were reports that they began testing a 70kWh Model 3 earlier in the month, expect End of March into April for production Model 3 unveil.

dsvick | 2017年2月16日

I think most of us were expecting that time frame already from Elon's comments in November. I'm also pretty sure that Tesla has said they aren't starting production on the 20th, in fact I get the impression that that is when the shutdown starts. They may still have a reveal at the end of March and maybe have one of the first production validation cars to show, but they may not have all the details at that point like final range, crash test results, etc. The final interior can be shown as well as all the options and their prices listed.

Coastal Cruiser. | 2017年2月16日

Uh, Andy, is this statement speculation on your behalf, or have you been channeling EM? You didn't quote a source.

"The more you tighten your grip, the more star systems will slip through your fingers"
- Princess Leia Organa

Bluesday Afternoon | 2017年2月16日

@Andy

I love your enthusiasm but question your certainty. The assembly of Tesla enthusiasts on the Forum know little about future event dates or what all will be "Unveiled" at these events. I've been on this site over two years (kind of an early adopter but not close to many others) and I've learned to enjoy Tesla surprises.

Your statement, "It will be when testing of the Model 3 that is going into production is 100% complete. Being that all true range numbers, acceleration, and all of the specifications that we have been asking about for the past year will be 100% accurate and confirmed," is not an accurate description of Tesla's track record. You have to understand our cars are not produced with this 100% level of finality you state above. Our cars change and that's what's so intriguing about Tesla. Whether it's HP to the rear wheels or HP to AWD the specs have been known to change. There was quite a flap when Tesla had to change the HP ratings on their website. Let's not forget OTA updates. They change our cars (I still applaud the OTA 12% horsepower increase in my 3 week old 85D) so the Model 3 needs to be seen as a work in progress. The good news is the events surrounding the unveil will be known shortly when invitations to attend are released.

Having said all that, I still say March 31, 2017, will be the date for the next Unveiling as it ends the 1st quarter. March 31st, 2015, is the day my 85D was delivered and exactly one year later I reserved my Model 3. So as a seasoned veteran, understand I really have no clue! It's just fun to speculate!

JeffreyR | 2017年2月16日

Remember that after the Model X was released, the Design Studio was not public yet. So options and prices likely will not be part of the final unveiling. Maybe people made enough noise last time, that Tesla will change it up. But it would be a new approach for them to discuss options and prices (remember not everyone gets the same price since exchange rates fluctuate).

andy.connor.e | 2017年2月16日

Good feedback.

Also consider that if Tesla wants to expand in the way that they want to, they're depending on M3 sales. More is at stake here. They cannot afford to have a second "Model X" if you will. Thats why i think that. Hopefully they realize how important it will be this time to be prepared.

JeffreyR | 2017年2月16日

In case you missed it here's what folks were thinking before the first reveal:

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/under-promise-over-deliver

Haggy | 2017年2月16日

The next part of the unveiling isn't supposed to be the final unveiling and nothing is set in stone until you order. Even then, Tesla has the right to continue to improve the car although you might have locked in a certain price.

Tesla put the design to bed a while ago. They came up with final specs for parts a while ago. There might be some room for pre-production changes, but they won't be major. What Tesla didn't need to have ready by the time they had final specs was software. We won't see a reveal before Tesla has the software working the way they want, especially if it's a significant part of the offering such as an HUD.

jman | 2017年2月16日

Is it just me..does this feel like Christmas as a kid.....only way better !!!! The hardest part is we don't know the dates of reveal, design studio, costs, or delivery dates.....but we do know they will happen this year....!!!!!!!!!!

Zakynthos | 2017年2月16日

Andy you talk like you are an official PR rep for Tesla. Unless you have a source for anything you're saying, there's no reason to talk in such a fashion. Despite it being known that Tesla has mules which have been in testing and it being common sense that the testing needs to be completed before anything can be official - the most current and accurate official word we have is from the shareholder meeting in November where Musk suggested the next reveal would "Probably [be] the beginning of spring OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT."

So yes, a late March or early April time-frame sounds reasonable and likely, but it's by no means official.

andy.connor.e | 2017年2月16日

God, if i even talk about when i think you should expect it, its like everyone goes into siege mode over its not official. What evidence do you have to suggest this. I had no idea i was in court. Its just what i think.

andy.connor.e | 2017年2月16日

Where is the "yeah i agree", "no i disagree". Like my god, if everyones going to be like that what is even the point of these forums? We all know theres no confirmed information, so if this is the response you get what are these even here for.

andy.connor.e | 2017年2月16日

maybe i need a break from these forums. see u guys in a few weeks

akgolf | 2017年2月16日

I think everyone here is a bit worn down from the constant barrage from Eagles stating his opinion as fact and are paying close attention to others posts. I'm sure you inadvertently omitted the 'in my opinion'.

mikdot | 2017年2月16日

As the great master once said "patience grasshopper"!! For those old enough to remember where that saying came from.

massimob30 | 2017年2月16日

I do wish a final reveal date would be given, in a sort of "light at the end of the tunnel" kind of way.

KP in NPT | 2017年2月16日

Starting in march I'll be looking for the email re: invitation lottery. But until it comes....more waiting.

Red Sage ca us | 2017年2月19日

andy.connor.e: Chill. I came up with a standard issue disclaimer to fend off those who constantly challenge my position. Eventually, most of them stopped. Others only lurk in other forums, or have been systematically blocked on my web browser, so I don't have to deal with their challenges anymore.

You are correct, in that this is a place where people post their opinions. Those who want us to post 'IMHO' every other sentence are simply out of line. If I post something here, then it is my opinion, and that quite obviously should be filed under 'DUH' for future reference. Over at TMC there was at one time a moderator who chastised me for making speculative posts in the 'Future Cars' section of the site. Think about that for a bit.

Amazingly, those who are most adamant that someone else provide a 'source' never seem to offer any of their own. Don't worry about it. Simply discuss things from your own point of view. Don't argue with other people, simply support your own position to your best ability, and point out why you disagree with theirs. It doesn't have to be taken personal at all. I try really hard to look at posts by others in the best possible light, rather than presuming someone is a troll, at least until they go well out of their way to prove they are trolls. :-)

"Power without perception is virtually useless and therefore of no true value!" -- Ryûken, 'Fist of the North Star' (1986)

*

*

*

AMPLE WARNING ALERT: I am just some guy on the internet. I do not possess any inside information regarding the operations of Tesla whatsoever. I have no credentials to speak of and routinely exercise guesswork. I freely admit to being your Friendly Neighborhood Over-the-Top Optimistic Tesla Certified Apologist Fanboy. As such, it is very likely that my opinions, hopes, and dreams for the company are entirely incorrect. Thus, you would be well advised to ignore my posts in their entirety. I cannot guarantee that I will be right all the time. Though I do guarantee and warrant that when I am wrong, I will be absolutely, totally, and completely incorrect -- every time! So please, pretty please, with sugar on top, don't, like, sue me and stuff. Thanks!

Haggy | 2017年2月20日

sage 1
[seyj]

noun
1.
a profoundly wise person; a person famed for wisdom.
2.
someone venerated for the possession of wisdom, judgment, and experience.
adjective, sager, sagest.
3.
wise, judicious, or prudent:
sage advice.

If you ask me, that's pretty good credentials.

gregcropper | 2017年2月20日

How is this for a source? I got a call this past Friday from a Tesla employee named "Ryan" based out of Hawthorne who told me that there would be another announcement related to the Model 3 in about two months.

Bluesday Afternoon | 2017年2月20日

@gregcropper

That nails it down nicely. ;-)

Red Sage ca us | 2017年2月20日

Haggy: +42! Those credentials apply to you, do doubt. :-D

Red Sage ca us | 2017年2月20日

DOH! Make that 'no doubt'...

andy.connor.e | 2017年2月21日

@Red Sage

It helps when someone else describes the laughable instance of people arguing with you over your opinion. When clearly i state my POV and opinion based upon such, one gets chastised by "no sources" yet sourcing your opinion is not a real thing. Pretty sure i get it now, and those who argue over my post are the ones who should be ignored. For i understand that in no way shape or form am i suggesting that what i said is the correct course of events, but such my POV of the position that Tesla is in given their past, their current standing, and how valuable the success of the Model 3 is to them.

Given those scenarios, the POV i take on the matter such as the date of the "second unveil", is based upon their mistakes in the past, and what is at stake for them now if they do not meet deadlines and show people a "finished car" if you will. #ModelX.

Thanks Red, sometimes you need a smack to the face to realize you're not actually doing anything wrong.

Tcloutier5890 | 2017年2月21日

Hang in there Andy, I enjoy reading your posts and point of view. There will always be those who are ready to take anyone down for no reason.

GCUK037 | 2017年2月22日

I'm guessing end of March for another reveal. I'm wondering what they did to the trunk to fix the opening that some thought was too small...

Red Sage ca us | 2017年2月22日

andy.connor.e: I too have been chastised. I have been very wrong on some things. And quite vorrect on others. And sort of split the difference on the rest. But I still point out my firm bias in favor of good things, the best things possible, taking place going forward.

Tesla faces many challenges. I state my opinions over their ability to overcome those issues as fact. And I readily point out precisely how often things that Naysayers claimed was 'impossible' or that would 'never' happen were completely wrong. That is the part of Tesla's history I prefer to focus upon -- the ability to defy the odds set against them by those that would see them fail.

I attribute that ability to hard work, determination, dedication to a goal, and very smart decision making. It is easy for people to tell you that you don't know what you are talking about, when they don't know what you are talking about. 35 years ago I tried very hard to convince my Family members that computers would be very important in the future -- the quizzical looks I received as a 15-year-old were intense in their severity -- and before 20 years had passed they all had computers in their homes. They give me the same looks today when I try to convince them that electric cars are here to stay.

massimob30 | 2017年2月22日

Good point Red Sage.

Tesla addresses issues promptly, and has the courtesy to take customer feedback seriously. When problems arise, I have no doubt Elon et al will get on it ASAP. Tesla doesn't have the bloated bureaucracy that would otherwise paralyze a car company from getting something done.

david.jones24 | 2017年2月22日

Sounds like the reveal may not be until July. Bummer.

Bluesday Afternoon | 2017年2月22日

@david.jones24

I'm still expecting the end of the 1st quarter to be the next Unveiling Model 3 event. Tesla will want to generate more excitement (and help stock price) prior to the first initial deliveries in July-August. I'd also expect to see the Model 3 Design Studio open to early reservationist maybe as early as April-May for future owners to design their cars.

Now what I'd like to know is when will employees and current Model S and X owners begin designing their Model 3's. Both groups would be helpful to Tesla in further evaluating the Model 3 prior to the full release later in the year. We should also see the prototypes out in the wild I'd guess right after the unveiling around March 31, 2017. Also, look for the invitations to go out for the Unveiling very soon (I'd guess March 10-15th). These are all guesses on my part and I'm seldom...

Haggy | 2017年2月22日

Elon said today that it might be closer to the start of production, but he also said that orders will start in 3-4 months. I assume the reveal will have to be before people order.

KP in NPT | 2017年2月22日

Elon was very noncommittal on the call. Makes me think a couple of things - he has something up his sleeve - and he's anti-selling the Model 3.

He had said all along he expected the queue to get much longer once people see the final car. I expect they have way more reservations than they've disclosed. (500-600K like we've speculated here.) He does not want the line longer right now. I'm guessing the something that's up his sleeve will make reservations go through the roof.

He also said on the call the "founders" cars will go to employees first. Well, once those cars are on the road, there will be pictures of them all over the internet. So we WILL see it. So, they will have to have some sort of reveal before/at that point. I don't think it's Tesla's style to let the reveal be random sightings on the road. But I could be wrong.

Red Sage ca us | 2017年2月22日

Yes. Elon thinks of Tesla Events as marketing opportunities, and that marketing is for the purpose of selling. If you already have buyers lined up beyond your ability to supply product... Then the need for marketing to drum up further sales is greatly diminished. Perfectly logical.

But there remains a strong emotional component that must be dealt with as well. There is a fine line between teasing to maintain interest and causing frustration due to perceived delay. People are not yet rattling sabres or wielding torches and pitchforks outside Fremont... But if a decent 200+ mile Nissan LEAF were to join the BOLT on the market prior to release of Model ≡ it could gain considerable interest. Consumers really do want to get their hands on the Model ≡ even sooner than is possible.

Haggy | 2017年2月23日

He mentioned that disclosing the reservation count would be bad for business. But he also said it's healthy. If it were dropping tremendously, that could be seen as bad for business, but wouldn't mean it's at a healthy level. If it's far higher, it might be bad for business if people decided it would be futile to reserve now, given that people might be skeptical of Tesla's ability to ramp up. Elon expects Tesla to be up to 4000 per week by September, which is only 200K per year.Tesla also said 5000 per week at some point in the 4th quarter (260,000/year) and 10,000 at some point in 2018. That could mean they don't expect to get there until the end of 2018. If the ramp up is incremental, then Tesla's best case numbers for 2017 would be 85,000 Model 3s. That means it will be at least January until Tesla builds enough cars for those who ordered the first day. But it would be realistic to fill the 380,000 by 2018.

That assumes that nothing goes wrong, and Tesla has a history of missing deadlines. But just as missing a target of getting first day reservations out this year might mean some would get their cars late by a matter of weeks, if they slip into 2019 for the rest who expect cars in 2018, it won't be deep into 2019.

On the other hand, if things go smoothly, the task of doubling throughput might be a matter of applying what Tesla learned and that has worked, and merely increasing production lines for the parts that are bottlenecks.

While Tesla might at times be overly optimistic, you have to compare it to those who are predicting that Tesla will be at least two years late bringing it to market at all. They look at a six month delay in the Model S, a bigger delay on the Model X, and then try to extrapolate as if any of that is even relevant.

Red Sage ca us | 2017年2月23日

Haggy: +42! EXCELSIOR!

dyefrog | 2017年2月23日

Haggy:
"If the ramp up is incremental, then Tesla's best case numbers for 2017 would be 85,000 Model 3s. That means it will be at least January until Tesla builds enough cars for those who ordered the first day. But it would be realistic to fill the 380,000 by 2018. "
I suppose one could surmise this to mean that the last person to reserve on 3/31 wouldn't get his till 2018 but if 115,000 reserved that day, how many were non US? And how many have since cancelled (probably not enough to matter). If your number is correct, the vast majority of US first day reservists should take delivery before 2018, or at least I hope so.

Jimmc418 | 2017年2月24日

I thought I read that 50% of the March 31, 2016 orders were placed outside the US. If only 50,000+ were generated in the US, and I was 80th in line on the morning of March 31,2016 in New York, I am hopeful that I will receive my Model 3 this yaer.

Haggy | 2017年2月24日

It's impossible to tell, but it's not unreasonable to assume that the percentage ordered from different countries didn't vary much from day to day.

"I suppose one could surmise this to mean that the last person to reserve on 3/31 wouldn't get his till 2018..."
It's all speculative, but if it means that instead of getting it at the end of December in 2017, you get it in January of 2018, that would be the case. If things spill over, it's not as if it will be a year later.

vp09 | 2017年2月24日

Nadine at Pasadena California Tesla Showroom told us today that it would be in April.

dd.micsol | 2017年2月25日

@haggy-yes because they are out of the country. End of 2018 definitely.
Jimmc-yes you'll get your car this yr 2017 and so will I-ordered Boston mar 31 11:43am east coast.
Options don't really matter much this time around. Priorities will be time then options in batches.
VP-sorry but I don't really believe you about April. I'm thinking mid/late May. And about 8 days after that-more capital raise. Doing a cap raise right before a holiday would be wise.