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New (to me) Model 3 Delivery Estimator

New (to me) Model 3 Delivery Estimator

I've done a different one, this one is more detailed. Have fun. ;-)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rKDw72FOIMmSY8wBVl0ECjAjwYV9shlv...

luwong.8888 | 2017年3月13日

May 20, 2018 for Ontario, Canada @10:30am. I choose Eastern USA and got Apr. 12, 2018. Can wait for May 20, but would like to have it sooner ;-)

KP in NPT | 2017年3月13日

I got Jan 15 2018 for East Coast owner at 10:12am. My guess was Dec/Jan assuming all goes well so I'm good with that. :)

luwong.8888 | 2017年3月13日

I went bare bones, non owner to see the worse case scenario. My car loan is over November. Every month after November, I can put towards my down payment. May, there will be no more snow/salt on the road. Always nice to get a new car in the Spring.

luwong.8888 | 2017年3月13日

The number that popped out was the number of cancelled reserves. I am all for people cancelling who are ahead of me :-)

rrobin36 | 2017年3月13日

Delivery December 22nd :) haha, that would be awesome.

Ssjtrider | 2017年3月13日

Delivery projected on 7 Dec 2017 for both my Model 3s, 75D & 55D. I hope it's true.
I joined the line at The Beverly Hills, California store at 8:30am.
After a long conversation with a couple that leased an EV1, presently owning a RAV4 with the Tesla battery and drivetrain, with a plan to reserve his & hers Model 3s, I was convinced me to do the same.
The 'high 5' from Elon, going down the waiting line, was a nice touch.

Ssjtrider | 2017年3月13日

sorry about the extra 'me'

bmalloy0 | 2017年3月13日

I don't think this is taking into account that non-US orders are extremely high up on the reservation list (after employees, before US orders). I could be wrong, but just an observation

bj | 2017年3月13日

It projects August next year for me (Australia) and I was top 100 in the world lining up.

I don't think that will be right at all. Yes we are RHD and all, but... well, if it is August, I will be VERY disappointed.

My totally self-serving estimate is early Q2 2018.

SoFlaModel3 | 2017年3月13日

Fun fact -- there are numerous people on the sheet right now and we're changing each other's estimates :)

I was in line pre-reveal with my reservation placed at 10:30 am EST in Florida.

This spreadsheet is guessing that I will take delivery in early April. I am hoping the spreadsheet is wrong and I take delivery in the 1st quarter. That could very well be the difference in $7,500 or $3,750...

dd.micsol | 2017年3月14日

good try but still wrong. All pre unveil orders will be fulfilled before end of this year.

SoFlaModel3 | 2017年3月14日

^^^would love for that to be true!

PhillyGal | 2017年3月14日

What @dd.miscol meant to say was:

"Great spreadsheet but I BELIEVE you are still wrong. IT IS MY OPINION that all pre-unveil orders IN THE US will be fulfilled before the end of this year."

dsvick | 2017年3月14日

@PhillyGal - +100!!

melinda.v | 2017年3月14日

I would go so far as editing that to: "IT IS MY OPINION that all pre-unveil orders IN CALIFORNIA will be fulfilled before the end of this year."

dsvick | 2017年3月14日

I would change that to "IT IS MY OPINION that all pre-unveil orders IN CALIFORNIA will be fulfilled before the end of this year. Except for Dave, who lives in Ohio, he'll get his by the end of the year too."

bmalloy0 | 2017年3月14日

I would venture a guess that all US pre-reveal orders will be fulfilled by year's end, bareing those who opt for a deferment for whatever reason.

bmalloy0 | 2017年3月14日

Barring, not bareing. Fat thumbs on my phone.

JuJo0 | 2017年3月14日

Pre-reveal, California reservation, non-owner. According to this spreadsheet, I will take delivery December 11 of this year. Hmmm.

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月14日

Why bother? The spreadsheet is completely made up. No one yet knows the algorithms Tesla will use to decide what gets built for whom when. Probably Tesla doesn't even know yet.

Carl

rbrown | 2017年3月14日

Im in the UK and qued in store before the reveal - wasn't a big que though 10 people in front of me at 8am

Calculator says Aug 2018 ...... sucks being right hand drive and last on the list of countries to be produced.

One of my current cars has the lease running out this month and so I was going to lease for another 2 years but the lack of even "rough" guidance from Tesla about other markets means I have no idea what year its coming let alone a month . I just dont know what to do

slasher0016 | 2017年3月14日

I ordered on the very first day and it says I won't get mine until April 2018. I'll be extremely disappointed if true. (I'm in Ohio.)

matt80206 | 2017年3月14日

I think this would improve accuracy if he updated the production levels to that of what Tesla announced... Maybe the creator doesn't believe tesla can produce 1,000-5,000 cars a week. I believe Elon will do it...and get to it faster than we think.

SactoEVer | 2017年3月14日

Dec 13 estimate here in California ... based on 2pm March 31 Calif order for a 75D level. This would be great, especially if the AWD is available & in time for snow season. Hard to believe I'm in first 30,000 orders .. I thought I was closer to 75,000.

greg | 2017年3月14日

I agree with the sentiment of many posters that the timings seem conservative and a little arbitrary.

For instance in the data portions of the sheet, the creator assumes that Tesla hits peak for the year in the last week of that year. e.g. 5000 per week in last week of 2017 and 10,000 per week in last week of 2018.
Those two assumptions have the single biggest impact on when you will get your car. Reacht hose targets sooner and the volumes increase. Miss those dates and volumes will stay low, so your actual date may vary enormously based on when those rates are hit/sustained and then surpassed.

Also the tool has been around for a while, [6 months or more] and so doesn't appear to incorporate all the likely ramp up rates or milestones Tesla has announced e.g. in the recent earnings call in its "design DNA"

However it is an attempt to put some science behind the dates.

But it still is little more than studying the entrails of dead birds to actually deduce when you will get your car - at this stage of proceedings.

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月14日

matt80206:
"Maybe the creator doesn't believe tesla can produce 1,000-5,000 cars a week. I believe Elon will do it...and get to it faster than we think."

We would all love it if that were true. But I'm confident it's not. :-/

Carl

Bersus | 2017年3月15日

Reserved right after unveil was over.
What time do i enter?

I was told i was around 150k, this projects me around 189k

Bersus | 2017年3月15日

Reserved right after unveil was over.
What time do i enter?

I was told i was around 150k, this projects me around 189k

Bersus | 2017年3月15日

and my connection obviously sucks... sorry!

georgehawley.fl.us | 2017年3月15日

Let's suppose they build 28,000 in 3Q17 and 56,000 in 4Q17. That's an impressive run of 86,000 by year end. Deliveries lag production by 2-4 weeks, I'm thinking. This means that maybe 70,000 get delivered by year-end. There were 115,000 reservations at the time of the reveal. Therefore, not all pre-reveal reservations will be fulfilled by EOY, using these assumptions that I believe to be optimistic. One rivet supplier has a hiccup and production comes to a screeching halt.

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月15日

georgehawley.fl.us:
"Let's suppose they build 28,000 in 3Q17 and 56,000 in 4Q17. That's an impressive run of 86,000 by year end."

"...these assumptions that I believe to be optimistic."

1/4 those numbers would be optimistic.

Carl

Red Sage ca us | 2017年3月16日

"1/4 those numbers would be optimistic."

For the BOLT during 2017.

bmalloy0 | 2017年3月16日

"1/4 those numbers would be optimistic"

1/4 those numbers would be them missing every ramping goal they set for this year by a factor of about 4

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月16日

bmalloy0:
"1/4 those numbers would be them missing every ramping goal they set for this year by a factor of about 4"

Yup, that sounds about right (if they deliver _any_ this year).

Carl

Red Sage ca us | 2017年3月16日

Carl Thompson: So lemme get this straight... You are now on record with an expectation that the BEST Tesla will manage with the 2017 launch of Model 3 is a 75% MISS on ALL PRODUCTION and SALES GOALS? Wow. That's... That's simply bonkers.

So, projections of weekly Production rates of perhaps 1,000 units, 2,000 units, 4,000 units, and eventually 5,000 units... Will, in your opinion, instead be limited to no more than 250 units, 500 units, 1,000 units, an 1,250 units maximum per week, respectively?

Every post you make might as well read, "ELON MUSK IS A [FLOCKING] FRAUD AND A LIAR!!!" as its introductory and closing verse.

Damn.

bmalloy0 | 2017年3月16日

Or, put another way, if they hit the ground running at 1000/wk Midway through July, then don't do any production ramping at all, they'd still surpass 1/4 those numbers by year's end (24,000 units)

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月16日

Red Sage ca us:
"So, projections of weekly Production rates of perhaps 1,000 units, 2,000 units, 4,000 units, and eventually 5,000 units... Will, in your opinion, instead be limited to no more than 250 units, 500 units, 1,000 units, an 1,250 units maximum per week, respectively?"

Yes. First, look at Tesla's history. They've _never_ been able to hit their numbers. The Model X missed by 3 _years_! Second, even Tesla admits their numbers are best case numbers from a perfect world where Tesla and all of its thousands of suppliers don't have any glitches that delay production. Anything's possible but I don't think we live in that perfect world.

"Every post you make might as well read, "ELON MUSK IS A [FLOCKING] FRAUD AND A LIAR!!!" as its introductory and closing verse."

No. It's your interpretation of what Elon Musk says that is wrong. Never does he say "Tesla will build X number of cars by Y date." He says things like "given the information we have now that is a probable outcome." He is careful to _always_ qualify his words about production by conditions.

So if you choose to believe that the information suppliers are telling Musk _now_ is indicative of the state Tesla's supply chain will be in at production time this year and if you don't care about the meaning of words like "probable" then sure, you can call him a liar when they miss these optimistic targets.

E.M. is an intelligent man who understands there are countless variables in every complex endeavor which is why most of what he says is nuanced. You are not nearly as nuanced as he and want to interpret everything as black and white.

Carl

pavel | 2017年3月16日

Does this model factor in EST ("Elon Standard Time")
:)

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月16日

Don't get me wrong. I expect Tesla to do better with the Model 3 than they have with any previous release. I do believe they have learned how to make their processes better. But will they hit their perfect-world numbers? No.

But Tesla is very secretive so who knows. Maybe those prototypes we say were actually betas and Tesla is much further along than anyone thinks. Maybe because of the production problems they've had in the past they're hiding their true release date and the car will start being sold in August! That would show all us so-called "realists."

Carl

matt80206 | 2017年3月16日

@Carl Thompson I am just happy you quoted me! :D... Simple pleasures in life I know...

bmalloy0 | 2017年3月16日

@carl: I agree that they peobably won't hit their goals 100%. In fact I'd bet they won't. Tesla (and more specifically Elon) sets purposefully unattainable goals. That way when they miss by 20%, they've still done something amazing.

Their internal goal may be 80,000 by year's end if they miss that by 20%, that's still 64,000 cars, almost half of their day-1 orders, and twice the Bolt's guidance.

A 75% miss, like you were insinuating, flies in the face of any given single piece o information we've been given over the past year as it pertains to the ramping of the Model 3. A 75% miss is near-impossible, barring a supplier mess-up. A 50% miss is possible but unlikely. I'm expecting a 25% miss, and they're shooting for a 0% miss.

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月16日

bmalloy0:
"A 75% miss, like you were insinuating, flies in the face of any given single piece o information we've been given over the past year as it pertains to the ramping of the Model 3. A 75% miss is near-impossible, barring a supplier mess-up. A 50% miss is possible but unlikely. I'm expecting a 25% miss, and they're shooting for a 0% miss."

It would be easier to miss by 75% in the first two quarters than you realize. And I don't think the issue is likely to be Tesla itself but one or more suppliers. If less than 100% of the thousands of suppliers deliver on time then Tesla will have to delay production to wait for the part(s). The same is true if Tesla finds out after first deliveries of a part that it isn't 100% to spec (or worse _is_ to spec but still doesn't work properly in context). Unless all of those thousands parts are delivered on time, are delivered in the quantities needed, are 100% to spec and work 100% correctly when assembled as part of the finished product then there could easily be a production delay.

So if, for example, just one tiny part of the transmission needs to be slightly redesigned and requires retooling that could easily delay production by a couple of months.

Remember, Tesla is starting off slow and ramping up. If start of production is delayed by a couple of months they can't just make up for it by ramping up faster. They _need_ that slow ramp up to iron out the kinks in their processes, train workers, testing, etc. Since the biggest production numbers are skewed toward the end of the year, and since they can't compress their ramp and the ramp already goes into next year, a delay of the beginning of full scale production will affect the numbers of cars produced in 2017 the same as if they stopped production lines for an equal amount of time during the busiest part of the year.

So the question is, how likely is there to be a delay at the start? With tens of thousands of parts being bought from thousands of suppliers who may in turn be outsourcing the manufacture of those parts it's easy to see that with all of those rolls of the dice it's very likely to come up snake eyes dozens of times despite everyone's best intentions. Now, if the part that's delayed is the floor mats then that's not going to be a problem. You can add them later (even after delivery to the customer). If it's the bezel around the center screen, you can probably work around a delay by doing it later in the process (even at the delivery point if necessary). But there are many, many parts that are needed near the beginning of the process that you can't realistically rearrange because later steps depend on it being done or because you simply won't be able to access the part if any more steps are done. For example, even a problem with something simple like the floor pans are going to halt production because much of what goes into a car is attached to it or attached to something that's attached to it. (I'm not really familiar with car manufacturing so I'm sure there are better examples.)

Have you ever been part of a project involving twenty or a hundred people and one guy (or team) doesn't do their part, lies about their progress, and ends up completely blowing the schedule for everyone because a crucial part of the project depended on the work they were supposed to do? Now imagine if instead that project had hundreds of thousands of people working for thousands of different companies. That's a car and why it's a huge feat of logistics to build one.

Carl

dyefrog | 2017年3月16日

I'm getting kinda tired of hearing that because the Model X and S didn't have a perfect rollout that naturally the Model 3 will follow suit. I can see why someone might think that history repeats itself in this case but it's an appeal to ignorance to think that because Tesla has never released a car on time that it never will. A lot has changed since the Model X and it's been touched on numerous times and that's the issue of suppliers and outsourcing. Back in 2013, Tesla couldn't get a return phone call. Now, Elon sneezes and 20 suppliers catch a cold. The entire industry is shell shocked by Tesla's ability to upset the apple cart and turn Detroit on it's ear. What they've been able to accomplish in 7 years can no longer be ignored. Tesla now has EARNED the luxury of calling the shots. Tesla says jump, supplier says, how high? Am I guilty of drinking the Kool-Aid? You bet, but more because I want them to succeed. The human race needs them to succeed. It's time. It's Tesla Time.

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月16日

dyefrog:
"... it's been touched on numerous times and that's the issue of suppliers and outsourcing. Back in 2013, Tesla couldn't get a return phone call. Now, Elon sneezes and 20 suppliers catch a cold."

I wouldn't go that far. Tesla does probably get their phone calls returned now. But the rest? I'm not so sure. Remember, Tesla doesn't even crack the top 50 automotive brands. Even if they meet all of their optimistic numbers for 2018 they could just barely squeak into the top 40. They are still not big enough that suppliers are going to be stressed one way or the other.

http://focus2move.com/world-cars-brand-ranking/

Carl

Red Sage ca us | 2017年3月16日

Carl Thompson: Historically, Tesla has sold eleven years worth of Model S in 4-1/2 years. Historically, Tesla made the right decision releasing the Model X in 2015, two years later than originally hoped -- not three. Historically, Tesla is going to sell more electric cars in the U.S. during 2017 than any other manufacturer in the world. And, historically, Tesla will break all its own records from this year in 2018 both domestically and worldwide. It's... Historic.

bmalloy0 | 2017年3月16日

If they meet all of their optimistic numbers for 2018, the Model 3 will be a just shy of being a top-10 selling US car.

Red Sage ca us | 2017年3月16日

While outselling everything from Volkswagen in the U.S.

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月17日

bmalloy0:
"If they meet all of their optimistic numbers for 2018, the Model 3 will be a just shy of being a top-10 selling US car."

Yes and it will be a well-deserved triumph. But it doesn't change the fact that they won't have the same clout with suppliers as companies that sell an order of magnitude more cars.

Carl

dyefrog | 2017年3月17日

dd:
Are you serious? I have no reason to doubt you as I gather you do have some connections from other posts of yours but is pretty big news.

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月17日

@dd.micsol

That is fantastic. But the dreaded "vendor hold up" is very possible when there are thousands of vendors. But it is great that there should be no problems on Tesla's end.

Carl

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