I was reading a teslarati article about GF1.
Here is what I extrapolated.
The Gigafactory is supposed to produce 35 gwh when fully built out to cover 13million sf. It currently only covers about 2 million sf, about one sixth of its final size.
Assuming absolute scalability, that means 21700 production is at 5.83 gwh.
Assuming 75kwh per long range model 3 and you get 77778 model 3s per year or 1496 per week.
This assumes no cannabiization of factory space for 18650 production nor utilization of 21700s for tesla energy projects.
This pretty much confirms tesla's claim that battery module production is the bottleneck.
Which is ridiculous given they have had 2 years of reservation data to figure out what battery production they would need to reasonably meet demand.
Interesting approach and Tesla may well be at a 1500/week rate or more, but your numbers are wrong. Tesla states it is currently about 30% built, not 16%. While the current footprint is 1.9 million sf, there are multiple floors and it has 4.9 million sf of operational space.https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory
Also some of that space is for Tesla energy - powerwalls and powerpacks and Model 3 motors are made at the Gigafactory. No idea what the percentage of each uses space at the Gigafactory.
My take from the Q4 earnings call is the new high-production Model 3 pack assembly line will not be in place for several months. It was due to be shipped from Germany this month. Until that new line is installed and running, they will be on the existing semi-automated line, with an expectation it can handle 2500 packs a week.
"Tesla states it is currently about 30% built"
When the original concept art was shown for the Gigafactory it was very elegant in its finished form with gleaming solar panels. The incremental approach means that we may never see it in its finished state, or at least not for many years (assuming Tesla survives). But the original concept and all of the record-breaking statistics surrounding it were a big part of its original hype as a pending wonder of the world.
You'd think one would get fatigued of writing negatively in every single comment they ever post.
"My take from the Q4 earnings call is the new high-production Model 3 pack assembly line will not be in place for several months."
I'm pretty sure they said it would be installed by the end of this month. (They also said they didn't need it to get to 2,500 Model 3s per week.)
mos6507 | March 13, 2018 "When the original concept art was shown for the Gigafactory it was very elegant in its finished form with gleaming solar panels. The incremental approach means that we may never see it in its finished state, or at least not for many years"
No, probably not. But just wait till they build Gigafactories #3 through #7. Those will no doubt each be bigger, shinier, and even more elegant than the original design. Just you wait! Yeah, that's the ticket!
@tranhv: I agree that your approach is an interesting way to look at the issue but 35 Gwh is an old number. Here's a more recent look: "Tesla expects that Gigafactory 1 will reduce the production cost for their electric vehicle battery and Powerwall and Powerpack packs by 30%. Its projected capacity for 2018 is 50 (GW h)/a of battery packs, and its final capacity upon completion was, as of May 2016, planned to be 150 GWh/yr of battery packs.
Gigafactory 1 - Wikipedia
Wikipedia › wiki › Gigafactory_1"
If it were as simple as you estimate, the ultimate LR Model 3 capacity would be 2 million per year! 1/6 of that is is 333,000 or 6660 per week. But none of that is really based on solid data. I'm guessing that 2500 a week is readily achievable when operating with the latest robotic assembly HW and SW. We'll soon see.
President georgehawley: Thank you. I was just about to point out that Tesla had tripled the expected maximum output of Gigafactory 001 shortly after the March 31, 2016 unveil of Model 3.
mos6507: Another sad sack moment of yours has been immortalized for future reference.
It takes 1000 lbs of wood to build a shed. A man goes to Lowes, buys 2000 lbs of wood and drives off. An onlooker concludes that the man has two sheds.
Made me laugh. Thanks!
If the man has two sheds, it takes 1000 lbs of wood to build a shed, and he buys 2000 lbs of wood, does that mean that he will end up with four sheds? What is the man doing with all those sheds? Why are they all the same size? How does the onlooker know the weight of the wood? I am so confused.
I was that onlooker! Here's the man getting the wood: https://us-east-1.tchyn.io/snopes-production/uploads/2016/11/lumber.jpg?...
As an onlooker, I believe that fellow is about to shed his old.
His load that is. iPad insanity.